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| | |-+  Was it a fluke that Trump won Erie, PA and almost won Lackawanna, PA in 2016?
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Author Topic: Was it a fluke that Trump won Erie, PA and almost won Lackawanna, PA in 2016?  (Read 1092 times)
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Solid4096
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« on: January 07, 2019, 05:48:24 pm »

It definitely seems to be the case looking at almost all the other election data we have in the past 6 years.
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cvparty
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« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2019, 06:33:18 pm »

no
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RFayette
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« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2019, 07:18:19 pm »

2020 will provide us more information to answer that question.
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« Reply #3 on: January 07, 2019, 08:43:49 pm »

No, it fit the overall pattern of the election very well.
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All States will be D
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« Reply #4 on: January 07, 2019, 08:47:41 pm »

honestly I could see medium sized WWC towns trends atleast stemming for a while.
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Ted Bessell
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« Reply #5 on: January 07, 2019, 08:48:28 pm »

Certainly fits the broader trends these days pretty well
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thr33_
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« Reply #6 on: January 07, 2019, 08:52:01 pm »

No, it fit the overall pattern of the election very well.
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Former Senator Zaybay
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« Reply #7 on: January 07, 2019, 09:06:18 pm »

Depends. Trump won these areas by rather small margins, Erie by 1%. Then, in the congressional race in 2018, a D+8 year(meaning a shift by 9 points was expected), the county shifted by 20 points. The same can be seen in Kenshoa county.

Lackawanna county seems to be a similar story.

Really, we have to see in 2020 to determine whether it was a fluke, but it seems the Ds have the advantage going in for these counties.
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Neoliberalbusters
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« Reply #8 on: January 08, 2019, 10:27:22 am »

Partly. Democrats won't get the margins from these two counties they got in the past, but Trump won't get his 2016 margin from either one. I'd rate Erie Lean D and Lackawanna Likely D (close to Safe). But who knows.
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« Reply #9 on: January 08, 2019, 12:59:51 pm »

Nope.

I expect both will have a similar Trump lean in 2020. That doesn't mean he'll win them, but they are part of his winning coalition.
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« Reply #10 on: January 09, 2019, 12:02:00 am »

In terms of the election itself, probably not.

In terms of long-term trends, most likely, if 2018 is any indication.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #11 on: January 09, 2019, 12:16:08 am »

In terms of the election itself, probably not.

In terms of long-term trends, most likely, if 2018 is any indication.

I am sure that 1982 and 1986 were certainly harbingers of future elections to come. Republicans dominating California in a midterm, clearly solid R long term. Democrats holding every Southern Congressional Delegation and sweeping every Southern Class III Senate seat, clearly the Solid South is back and here to stay...
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« Reply #12 on: January 09, 2019, 01:32:13 am »

In terms of the election itself, probably not.

In terms of long-term trends, most likely, if 2018 is any indication.

I am sure that 1982 and 1986 were certainly harbingers of future elections to come. Republicans dominating California in a midterm, clearly solid R long term. Democrats holding every Southern Congressional Delegation and sweeping every Southern Class III Senate seat, clearly the Solid South is back and here to stay...

Well deserved sarcasm))) But speaking about South - IMHO, rapidly developing more urban (especially - with large metropolitan areas) states generally either move Democratic or "stay put" now: Virginia, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida. More rural, lacking really BIG metropolitan areas - generally continue to move Republican with varying speed: Tennessee, South Carolina and especially "last four": Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. For example - i expect strengthening of Republican positions in two last state's legislatures, as "last white Democrats" (able to win Republican-leaning seats, and, usually, with at least some conservative inclinations), first elected 15-20 years ago, generally retire, and are replaced by Republicans, while Democrats have very little targets there (the majority Black seats are already Black Democratic, and majority white - basically unwinnable). Of course, it's somewhat a simplyfication, but generally - ....
« Last Edit: January 09, 2019, 06:46:22 am by smoltchanov »Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #13 on: January 13, 2019, 02:30:40 am »

In terms of the election itself, probably not.

In terms of long-term trends, most likely, if 2018 is any indication.

I am sure that 1982 and 1986 were certainly harbingers of future elections to come. Republicans dominating California in a midterm, clearly solid R long term. Democrats holding every Southern Congressional Delegation and sweeping every Southern Class III Senate seat, clearly the Solid South is back and here to stay...

Well deserved sarcasm))) But speaking about South - IMHO, rapidly developing more urban (especially - with large metropolitan areas) states generally either move Democratic or "stay put" now: Virginia, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida. More rural, lacking really BIG metropolitan areas - generally continue to move Republican with varying speed: Tennessee, South Carolina and especially "last four": Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. For example - i expect strengthening of Republican positions in two last state's legislatures, as "last white Democrats" (able to win Republican-leaning seats, and, usually, with at least some conservative inclinations), first elected 15-20 years ago, generally retire, and are replaced by Republicans, while Democrats have very little targets there (the majority Black seats are already Black Democratic, and majority white - basically unwinnable). Of course, it's somewhat a simplyfication, but generally - ....


In summary, midterms tend to display both areas of new strength and also regaining of old territory. Presidential years tend to recast the playing field and redraw the lines more in line with the areas of new strength, leaving the old turf outside the defensive line. Those areas are thus the ones that then are getting wiped out once the Presidency flips and then a midterm happens.
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Badger
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« Reply #14 on: January 15, 2019, 12:10:36 am »

Probably not flukes, but people assuming that they are going to shift hard for Trump or the Republicans forthcoming years are probably overstating it.
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Smash255
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« Reply #15 on: January 20, 2019, 12:43:36 pm »

They likely will both pull back a bit, but considerably less so than the change from 16 to 20.   The overall trend from 2012 to 2020 in both will still be strongly Republican, and unless Trump loses nationally by double digits, I would expect the margins in both to be closer to 2016 than 2012.
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Orser67
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« Reply #16 on: January 21, 2019, 12:49:24 pm »

No. They're both heavily white counties that aren't part of a major metropolitan area. They may not vote for Trump in 2020, but I expect them to continue to move towards Republicans in the long term.
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PR
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« Reply #17 on: January 21, 2019, 01:17:59 pm »

No.
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