Was it a fluke that Trump won Erie, PA and almost won Lackawanna, PA in 2016? (user search)
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  Was it a fluke that Trump won Erie, PA and almost won Lackawanna, PA in 2016? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Was it a fluke that Trump won Erie, PA and almost won Lackawanna, PA in 2016?  (Read 1527 times)
smoltchanov
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,381
Russian Federation


« on: January 09, 2019, 01:32:13 AM »
« edited: January 09, 2019, 06:46:22 AM by smoltchanov »

In terms of the election itself, probably not.

In terms of long-term trends, most likely, if 2018 is any indication.

I am sure that 1982 and 1986 were certainly harbingers of future elections to come. Republicans dominating California in a midterm, clearly solid R long term. Democrats holding every Southern Congressional Delegation and sweeping every Southern Class III Senate seat, clearly the Solid South is back and here to stay...

Well deserved sarcasm))) But speaking about South - IMHO, rapidly developing more urban (especially - with large metropolitan areas) states generally either move Democratic or "stay put" now: Virginia, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida. More rural, lacking really BIG metropolitan areas - generally continue to move Republican with varying speed: Tennessee, South Carolina and especially "last four": Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. For example - i expect strengthening of Republican positions in two last state's legislatures, as "last white Democrats" (able to win Republican-leaning seats, and, usually, with at least some conservative inclinations), first elected 15-20 years ago, generally retire, and are replaced by Republicans, while Democrats have very little targets there (the majority Black seats are already Black Democratic, and majority white - basically unwinnable). Of course, it's somewhat a simplyfication, but generally - ....
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