Missouri: 1996-2008 vs Ohio 2004-2016

[OSR stands with Israel]

Missouri:                                                         Ohio:
1996: D+6.3%                                                          2004: R+2.1%
Relative to National Vote: R+2.2%                              Relative to National Vote: D+0.3%

2000: R+3%                                                             2008: D+4.6%
Relative to National Vote: R+3.5%                              Relative to National Vote: R+2.6%

2004: R+7.2%                                                          2012: D+3%
Relative to National Vote: R+4.4%                               Relative to National Vote: R+0.9%

2008: R+0.1%                                                           2016: R+8.1%
Relative to National Vote: R+7.3%                               Relative to National Vote: R+10.2%

[FalloutBoy97]

Interesting how MO's march to the right has been slow and steady whereas OH's was a much more sudden lurch. Unfortunately Trump was the best candidate to peel off traditionally democratic voters in the Mahoning valley. While Cruz, Rubio etc. would still have won OH if they were the nominee, it wouldn't have been by eight points.

[The3rdParty]

Interesting how MO's march to the right has been slow and steady whereas OH's was a much more sudden lurch. Unfortunately Trump was the best candidate to peel off traditionally democratic voters in the Mahoning valley. While Cruz, Rubio etc. would still have won OH if they were the nominee, it wouldn't have been by eight points.

Probabaly because 08 was a strong Dem year, it wasn't as noticeable how MO was shifting compared to 2016 being more of a neutral year with Ohio. Also Ohio is more populist white that will vote for either party while Missouri is more like the south with inelastic whites and minorties.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Interesting how MO's march to the right has been slow and steady whereas OH's was a much more sudden lurch. Unfortunately Trump was the best candidate to peel off traditionally democratic voters in the Mahoning valley. While Cruz, Rubio etc. would still have won OH if they were the nominee, it wouldn't have been by eight points.

Probabaly because 08 was a strong Dem year, it wasn't as noticeable how MO was shifting compared to 2016 being more of a neutral year with Ohio. Also Ohio is more populist white that will vote for either party while Missouri is more like the south with inelastic whites and minorties.

Surprisingly even if you look at how each a state was in relation to popular vote


Missouri was like 7.3 points more Republican than national vote in 08 while Ohio was 10.2%

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Trump was just a perfect fit for OH while Clinton was a terrible fit for OH, while Romney was a bad fit for OH and Obama a good fit for OH. But if Republicans stay a populist party (not extreme, but populist) and Democratic indeed incorporate Macronista ideas, OH will stay Republican. It depends on how the political parties will evolve. If a candidate like Biden (incl. good campaign), or maybe Brown or Sanders is the nominee for 2020 it will definitely be a lot closer, but I still imagine the state will go with Trump. If Warren, Gillibrand or Harris are the nominees, i can see them going with Trump by a bigger margin (maybe not +8, but still +5'ish).

[RINO Tom]

The idea that it is only populism giving Ohio its Republican lean is completely ridiculous.

[Zaybay]

If you wanted this to be a good comparison, you would have to give either OH 1996-2004, or MO 2008-2016, otherwise, all we can see is that OH had a sudden lurch, while MO was a constant trend.

[IceSpear]

The idea that it is only populism giving Ohio its Republican lean is completely ridiculous.

Do you expect any better #analysis from Atlas? #Populism is clearly the key to everything!

[OSR stands with Israel]

The idea that it is only populism giving Ohio its Republican lean is completely ridiculous.

Do you expect any better #analysis from Atlas? #Populism is clearly the key to everything!

I read an article one time which was from the early 2000s and they said the reason W Bush is so liked is because like Reagan he is a populist .


Lol if Reagan and W Bush are considered populists