British Columbia election 2021 (or earlier)

[DL]

The last BC election was two years ago in May 2017. If the NDP/Green confidence and supply deal lasts a full terms the next BC election will be in the fall of 2021. However, most people seem to think the next election will be sometime before that.

There have been two polls recently both of which give the BC NDP a lead - mainstreet poll released in late March had the NDP leading the Liberals 39% to 32%. Today Research Co released a poll that says:

BC NDP - 40%
BC Liberals - 30%
Greens - 21%
Conservatives - 9%

https://researchco.ca/2019/05/29/with-the-furies-breathing-down-your-neck/

[brucejoel99]

The 21% for the Greens is interesting. It's 18 points behind the NDP, but it's still a fifth of the voters and it's definitely moved them outside of "fringe" party status.

[beesley]

John Horgan is repeatedly cited as one of the most popular Premiers in Canada. If those polls are correct, then it's not that Horgan is doing much better, but the BC Liberals have lost a lot of support.

[lilTommy]

While the NDP has remained steady at 39-40% compared to the March polling, the Greens have shot up to 21% from 13%, and the BCLiberals have dropped some from 32% to 30%, the biggest decrease is the BCConservatives who drop from 12% to 9%
Regional #'s will the factor here: (compared to march polling)

Metro Vancouver - NDP 41% (up 1% from 40)), BCL 31% (down 4 from 35%) GRN 19% (up 9 from 10%)
- I can see Van - False Creek would likely be an NDP pickup, as well as Richmond-Queensborough. Outside VAN, GRNs were second in West Van - Sea-to-Sky so that could be a pick-up for the GRNs

Fraser Valley - NDP 45%, BCL 20%! GRN 25%, BCCP 10%
- I don't know how the BCL can win anything here in third place, under 20%?

Vancouver Island - NDP 45% (down 2 from 47%), BCL 25% (up 10 from 15%), GRN 23% (up 1 from 22%)
- This seems a bit all over the place? both GRN and BCL up might cancel each other out, I don't see many BCL pickups other then Courtney-Comox.

Northern BC - NDP 29%, BCL 29%, GRN 23%, BCCP 16%
- Zero clue how this would work out.

[Harlow]

I think it's worth noting that the BC Conservatives have been getting double-digit support in polling years out from the election in the last few cycles, but that support evaporates as voting time rolls around due to a severe lack of party infrastructure (the party only ran 10 candidates in 2017 and received only 0.5% of the popular vote). The last time they won a seat was in the 70s. People who select the Conservatives in polls right now are most likely people who will end up voting for the Liberals during the actual elections.

[brucejoel99]

I think it's worth noting that the BC Conservatives have been getting double-digit support in polling years out from the election in the last few cycles, but that support evaporates as voting time rolls around due to a severe lack of party infrastructure (the party only ran 10 candidates in 2017 and received only 0.5% of the popular vote). The last time they won a seat was in the 70s. People who select the Conservatives in polls right now are most likely people who will end up voting for the Liberals during the actual elections.

Yeah, I'm convinced that the 9% for the Conservatives, a party that ran in only 10 or so ridings in the last election & hasn't held a seat since 2012 (floor-crossing BC Liberal John van Dongen), let alone (as you mentioned) actually won a seat since 1975, is irrelevant. They're not linked to the federal Conservatives, & nobody (let alone the business community) in BC takes them seriously. They likely only register because of people who aren't aware that they actually don't really exist. There's probably a significant number of people who don't really know what the difference between provincial & federal politics is, & just know that they always vote Conservative. Then, once every 4 years when election time comes around, somebody reminds them that the BC Liberals ARE the conservatives.

[DL]

Fraser Valley - NDP 45%, BCL 20%! GRN 25%, BCCP 10%
- I don't know how the BCL can win anything here in third place, under 20%?

I'm highly sceptical of this number. the Fraser valley is the most rightwing part of BC and is a Bc Liberal stronghold - no way that is correct

[lilTommy]

Fraser Valley - NDP 45%, BCL 20%! GRN 25%, BCCP 10%
- I don't know how the BCL can win anything here in third place, under 20%?

I'm highly sceptical of this number. the Fraser valley is the most rightwing part of BC and is a Bc Liberal stronghold - no way that is correct

I'm in agreement, I also think the Northern BC numbers are very off. Likely small samples?

[lilTommy]

I think it's worth noting that the BC Conservatives have been getting double-digit support in polling years out from the election in the last few cycles, but that support evaporates as voting time rolls around due to a severe lack of party infrastructure (the party only ran 10 candidates in 2017 and received only 0.5% of the popular vote). The last time they won a seat was in the 70s. People who select the Conservatives in polls right now are most likely people who will end up voting for the Liberals during the actual elections.

Very true, I'd be surprised if the BCCP broke 5%. But the same used to be the case for the Greens till last election. Even then, they were polling low 20s and ended up mid-teens, so many "polled-Greens" voted someone else or not at all. Likely that number would dip some at the election as well

[DC Al Fine]

I think it's worth noting that the BC Conservatives have been getting double-digit support in polling years out from the election in the last few cycles, but that support evaporates as voting time rolls around due to a severe lack of party infrastructure (the party only ran 10 candidates in 2017 and received only 0.5% of the popular vote). The last time they won a seat was in the 70s. People who select the Conservatives in polls right now are most likely people who will end up voting for the Liberals during the actual elections.

Very true, I'd be surprised if the BCCP broke 5%. But the same used to be the case for the Greens till last election. Even then, they were polling low 20s and ended up mid-teens, so many "polled-Greens" voted someone else or not at all. Likely that number would dip some at the election as well

Have the BC Conservatives gotten some party machinery up and running since the last election, or will they be a fringe party struggling to get a half slate together?

[adma]

Any stated BCCon support probably reflects a desire, however unrequited, for *some* kind of further-right alternative, i.e. a successor to Reform BC in the 90s, or the equivalent of various Alberta entities over the years from the lingering Socreds to WCC to early Wildrose...

[136or142]

Any stated BCCon support probably reflects a desire, however unrequited, for *some* kind of further-right alternative, i.e. a successor to Reform BC in the 90s, or the equivalent of various Alberta entities over the years from the lingering Socreds to WCC to early Wildrose...

Or a provincial PPC.

[adma]

Or a provincial PPC.

Or federal Reform in 1988.

[DL]

A Little Lord Fauntleroy style federal Liberal like Andrew Wilkinson would be particularly repulsive to conservatives in BC

[beesley]

A Little Lord Fauntleroy style federal Liberal like Andrew Wilkinson would be particularly repulsive to conservatives in BC

Not that BC is as socially conservative as Alberta or the Prairies, but I wonder how many people he ticked off with his 'the BC Liberals are unequivocally pro-choice' party. There's less of a natural home for social conservatives like there is in other Western provinces.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Well, the BCNDP might not have teachers on their side in the next go-around. Not that it would make a huge difference, but I feel like education was a bigger issue under the last government that the BCNDP was able to capitalize and mobilize on.

[beesley]

Unlike Pauline Marois in 2012 or Stephen Harper in 2008, Horgan's government has survived pretty smoothly, having weathered the departure of Leonard Krog pretty well, so an early election with the line 'give me a majority mandate' might seem more opportunist than pragmatic.

[136or142]

Fort St John Councillor Trevor Bolin won the leadership of the B.C Conservative Party about one month ago.

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/new-b-c-conservatives-leader-says-party-took-time-to-rebuild-form-platform

[mileslunn]

If an election were held today, NDP would almost certainly win.  They are doing well simply by not screwing up and not rankling too many feathers.  Also Wilkinson is not exactly the most appealing leader so he could win if NDP becomes really unpopular, but not the type if they have decent approval ratings and I say this as full disclosure, I am card carrying BC Liberal member. 

That being said going early has risks, as it can backfire as being opportunistic, see Peterson in 1990, Prentice in 2015, or Theresa May in 2017.  Also it will be tough to make it until October 2021 without another recession so depending on how we do, that will probably have a big impact.  Still compared to past times the NDP's governed, they have reason to be happy with how the first two years have gone as I believe at year two in the previous two times they formed governments, they had similar approval ratings to what Doug Ford in Ontario has.