Finnish parliamentary election – 14 April 2019

[Helsinkian]

The election broadcast of YLE 1 starts in a few minutes. Usually YLE Areena (YLE's streaming service) is geoblocked outside the country, but now it seems to be available (I use a VPN but can see it): https://areena.yle.fi/tv/suorat

[Helsinkian]

Up to 25% of early votes have not been counted, with most of the votes not counted in Southern Finland. This should mean that Centre is even higher in the early vote batch that will be soon released.

[Helsinkian]

With 37% counted:

SDP 18.9
KOK 17.2
KESK 15.4
PS 15.1
VIHR 11.4
VAS 8.9
KD 4.3
SFP 4.0
SIN 1.0

KESK will definitely finish fourth.

[DavidB.]

In seats (early vote):

SDP 41
KOK 37
PS 32
KESK 31
Greens 24
Left Alliance 18
RKP 9
KD 6
Blue Future 0

[Walmart_shopper]

The Center seems a lot more resilient than people expected, and probably KOK, too. It probably makes a SDP-Green-Center or SDP-Greens-KOK coalition a more politically plausible for both right and left.

[DavidB.]

With 37% counted:

So this includes some of the e-day vote but excludes that 25% of the early vote that was not counted?

[Helsinkian]

With 37% counted:

So this includes some of the e-day vote but excludes that 25% of the early vote that was not counted?

I don't think there's anything from today yet. When the election day votes do come, they will first come from small municipalities. So expect Centre to rise first before starting a steep decline later in the evening.

[Helsinkian]

Left Alliance is currently up 6 seats. That would be a very impressive result for them, seeing that they've gone down in every parliamentary election in the 2000s.

[mileslunn]

With 37% counted:

So this includes some of the e-day vote but excludes that 25% of the early vote that was not counted?

I don't think there's anything from today yet. When the election day votes do come, they will first come from small municipalities. So expect Centre to rise first before starting a steep decline later in the evening.

So with current results is SDP or KOK more likely to lead the government?

[Helsinkian]

With 37% counted:

So this includes some of the e-day vote but excludes that 25% of the early vote that was not counted?

I don't think there's anything from today yet. When the election day votes do come, they will first come from small municipalities. So expect Centre to rise first before starting a steep decline later in the evening.

So with current results is SDP or KOK more likely to lead the government?

SDP's lead will probably hold. The largest party will be given the task to form a government first; if one party has more votes but the other has more seats, I think the task would be given to the one with more seats.

[Aboa]

The 2 others who would be elected based on early vote are Mats Löfström from Åland islands who will sit with SPP and Harry Harkimo from Liike Nyt.

[Helsinkian]

The 2 others who would be elected based on early vote are Mats Löfström from Åland islands who will sit with SPP and Harry Harkimo from Liike Nyt.

Liike Nyt is Movement Now in English, in case someone's wondering (see my introduction).

[FredLindq]

I would say that KOK can overtake SDP. They were more than 10% stronger than SDP in Helsinki 2015.

[Double Carpet]

Thanks all for the links - is there a live results map anywhere?

Cheers,

DC

[FredLindq]

41% counted. Only 22% counted i Nyland and 33% in Helsingfors whick is KOK strongholds.

[DavidB.]

Insane decline for Center in terms of seats compared to their performance in percentage. Is their vote that badly distributed?

[Helsinkian]

The election broadcast of YLE 1 starts in a few minutes. Usually YLE Areena (YLE's streaming service) is geoblocked outside the country, but now it seems to be available (I use a VPN but can see it): https://areena.yle.fi/tv/suorat

A Swedish-language broadcast is now also available: scroll down to find YLE TEEMA/FEM.

[DavidB.]

Some more questions:

1. How is the result interpreted in Finland? A repudiation of the right-wing economic policy of the KESK-KOK-PN/SIN govt?

2. Where do the Green and Left gains come from?

3. I get the impression that the SDP electorate is still pretty working-class. Is this why the leadership isn't that "new left" and is even (at least theoretically) open to working with PS under Halla-aho?

[Helsinkian]

Thanks all for the links - is there a live results map anywhere?

Cheers,

DC

https://vaalit.yle.fi/ev2019/en/regions (No colours on the map; you'll have to zoom in)

[Double Carpet]

Thanks!

[Walmart_shopper]

This seems like a really, and surprisingly, bad result for PS. Is that accurate?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

How much of the e-day vote as opposed to early is counted by now? Are there usually significant differences between the two?

[Helsinkian]

This seems like a really, and surprisingly, bad result for PS. Is that accurate?

I wouldn't say so. The last YLE poll was the only one that gave them over 16%; the other polls from the last week gave them 15% and 13.something%. And I think they will still be at at least 16% when the election day votes come in.

I'm really glad that the traitors in Blue Reform are all losing their seats... The 1% they're getting are almost all from Finns Party's 2015 voters. If Blue Reform is discontinued, I'd expect most of those voters to return next time (though the Blue leaders will not be allowed back).

We have to remember that six months ago PS was polling at 8%...

[Aboa]

How much of the e-day vote as opposed to early is counted by now? Are there usually significant differences between the two?

SDP and especially Centre usually perform worse on election day, NCP and SPP usually better.

[DavidB.]

This seems like a really, and surprisingly, bad result for PS. Is that accurate?

PS is at 15.9% already with only some of the e-day vote in. Wouldn't be surprised to see them rise to 17-18%. A few months ago they were expected to decline to 8-9%. And the current Finns Party is much further right than the Finns Party in 2015. If they get anything close to their 17.7% in 2015 (and it seems they will) it will be a great night for them.