Finnish parliamentary election – 14 April 2019

[Tender Branson]

PS now at 16.4% in the real count and 2nd (3rd in seats):

https://tulospalvelu.vaalit.fi/EKV-2019/en/tulos_kokomaa.html

[jaichind]

So far the increase in vote share for the Left parties are not as large as I feared ... good.

[Aboa]

Some more questions:

1. How is the result interpreted in Finland? A repudiation of the right-wing economic policy of the KESK-KOK-PN/SIN govt?

2. Where do the Green and Left gains come from?

3. I get the impression that the SDP electorate is still pretty working-class. Is this why the leadership isn't that "new left" and is even (at least theoretically) open to working with PS under Halla-aho?

1. Mostly yes, though NCP appearing to have good results will probably complicate this, many of the hot takes thus far have focused on the splintering of the party field, this being first time that no party achieves 20% of votes.

2. Most noticeable gains seem to be Green surge in Helsinki.

3. The blue-collar trade union SAK has strong influence on SDP and the current leader Rinne is former union boss, being at least theoretically open towards working with all parties has usually been part of Finnish political culture.

[Hydera]

While this result is a improvement for the left of centre parties compared to 2015 its prob not as good considering they had 42%-43% in polls combined back months ago and are likely to be as much as 38% at the moment.

[Helsinkian]

Being critical toward cheap foreign labour (undermining Finnish labour terms) is something that the SDP and Finns Party have in common (the Finnish term is saatavuusharkinta, not sure how to translate that; maybe some of the other Finnish posters know?). This is an issue where the SDP are at odds with Left Alliance and the Greens.

[Aboa]

Seat projection from Iltalehti based on preliminary vote.

SDP      40
NCP      40
FINNS   34
CENT    28
GREEN  26
LEFT     16
SPP      10
CD         5
OTHERS 1

[DavidB.]

Thanks! As for 1, it makes sense to me that the main driving force behind this economic policy with the base that would be most inclined to support it (i.e. KOK, of course) isn't punished for it, but its more economic left-wing partners are. With Halla-aho's PS having dissociated itself from the government and its policy for quite a while, it would make sense that KESK pays most of the electoral price - and the SIN people, of course.

For 2, I actually meant to ask from which party these people come. Seems like Center is fatally wounded in Helsinki and NCP are taking a hit as well. I can definitely imagine an NCP -> Green voter.

[Helsinkian]

Seat projection from Iltalehti based on preliminary vote.

I think that turnout is the only thing from election day that that projection takes into account. I'd wait for the YLE projection.

[Helsinkian]

Overall turnout is 72%. Slightly up from 2015. This is the first time that the majority of votes were given in advance.

[DavidB.]

Finns have risen to 17.1%. Suspect they'll end up with about the same result as in 2015 or even more. Though they may decline a bit when Helsinki's polling stations start coming in. Still absolutely impressive.

[Helsinkian]

YLE projection:

SDP 40 seats
NCP 38
Finns 38
Centre 30
Green 23
Left 15
SPP 9
CD 5
Movement Now 1
Åland 1

[Aboa]

Thanks! As for 1, it makes sense to me that the main driving force behind this economic policy with the base that would be most inclined to support it (i.e. KOK, of course) isn't punished for it, but its more economic left-wing partners are. With Halla-aho's PS having dissociated itself from the government and its policy for quite a while, it would make sense that KESK pays most of the electoral price - and the SIN people, of course.

For 2, I actually meant to ask from which party these people come. Seems like Center is fatally wounded in Helsinki and NCP are taking a hit as well. I can definitely imagine an NCP -> Green voter.

Greens along with Finns is the party with the most unreliable voters lot of the gains might be people who usually don't vote, I'd imagine same could apply towards the younger Left Alliance electorate.

[Tender Branson]

PS gains 4% compared with 2015 in Oulu, where asylum seeking men have assaulted several young Finnish women.

[Diouf]

Insane decline for Center in terms of seats compared to their performance in percentage. Is their vote that badly distributed?

As I understand it, the Finnish system is basically D'hondt in every multimember constituency. So that will generally benefit the bigger parties somewhat, in that they can get some "cheap seats" in terms of votes. And in the last election, Center was with some distance the biggest party, so will have gotten those cheap seats many places. When you look at share of seats in relations to share of votes in 2015, it mostly follows size. Centre Party 1.16, Finns Party 1.08, NCP 1.02, SDP 1.03, Greens 0.88, Left Alliance 0.84, SFP 0.92 & KD 0.71.

[Helsinkian]

PS gains 4% compared with 2015 in Oulu, where asylum seeking men have assaulted several young Finnish women.

Yes, some left-winger commentators were saying that the police should not have talked about the events in public...

[Tender Branson]

Looks like my prediction and David‘s could end up being really good.

[Helsinkian]

Christian Democrats continue to be consistently the party most disadvantaged by the electoral system.

[Tender Branson]

PS gains 4% compared with 2015 in Oulu, where asylum seeking men have assaulted several young Finnish women.

Yes, some left-winger commentators were saying that the police should not have talked about the events in public...

Ignoring these things won’t solve this problem.

[Helsinkian]

YLE projection currently has:

SDP 17.7%
Finns 17.2%
NCP 17.2%

[jaichind]

YLE projection currently has:

SDP 17.7%
Finns 17.2%
NCP 17.2%

I would think the Finns would end up lower then that ...

[Aboa]

YLE projection currently has:

SDP 17.7%
Finns 17.2%
NCP 17.2%

Is there any chance Finns could end up above SDP?

Certainly not impossible, especially in terms of seats.

[Tender Branson]

YLE projection currently has:

SDP 17.7%
Finns 17.2%
NCP 17.2%

Is there any chance Finns could end up above SDP?

I think it is actually possible if Helsinki & suburbs (Uusimaa) are performing not badly for them in the coming numbers. There is not a lot in from there (mostly early votes) and the Election Day vote could be better for PS.

[DavidB.]

76% of the vote now in, but only 60% from Helsinki and 46% from the surrounding, densely populated area Uusimaa. Both NCP and Finns should be doing well in Uusimaa. SDP seem to be underperforming.

[FredLindq]

My bet is that PS becomes the largest party. They have the momentum. It Will be a hard contest among SDP, KOK and K about becoming second and probably get the task to form a new guvernment.

What did I say?! :-)

[Helsinkian]

YLE projection now:

SDP 40 seats
Finns 39
NCP 38

This night is working out a lot better than I expected.