Finnish parliamentary election – 14 April 2019

[Donerail]

Potentially of interest to folks here: Finnish national broadcaster Yle News has an English-language podcast called "All Points North," which has done an impressively in-depth political party profile series.

Do you got a link?

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/all-points-north/id1347167993?mt=2

[Lord Halifax]

Potentially of interest to folks here: Finnish national broadcaster Yle News has an English-language podcast called "All Points North," which has done an impressively in-depth political party profile series.

Do you got a link?

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/all-points-north/id1347167993?mt=2

Thx

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Is it possible to listen this without any Apple device?

[Donerail]

Is it possible to listen this without any Apple device?

https://areena.yle.fi/1-4355773

[Helsinkian]

Poll by Tietoykkönen for the Alma Media group:

SDP 19.6%
NCP 17%
Centre 14.7%
Finns 13.4%
Green 13.3%
Left 9.1%
CD 4.1%
SPP 3.9%
Blue 2%
Others 2.9%

All parties under 20% would be a first.

Finns Party has recently fared better in the YLE polls compared to others; a new one should come out on thursday.

[DavidB.]

Great to see PS surge. Told you so! Are there any Votematch-like tests?

How have Finnish media responded to the news of PS teaming up with AfD, Lega and DF?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Is it possible to listen this without any Apple device?

https://areena.yle.fi/1-4355773

Thank you.

[Helsinkian]

Great to see PS surge. Told you so! Are there any Votematch-like tests?

Yes, and the YLE election compass is even available in English: https://vaalikone.yle.fi/eduskuntavaali2019/?lang=en

Climate issues have been talked about a lot in the media recently; you'll see that the very first questions are related to them. The third question is "The state should encourage people to eat less meat using measures such as taxation". The so-called "meat-tax" was at one point favoured by Antti Rinne, the SDP leader, but he had to back down when he noticed how unpopular it was.

How have Finnish media responded to the news of PS teaming up with AfD, Lega and DF?

It hasn't been talked about much, with the attention on the parliamentary election.

[Helsinkian]

The results of the "youth election", a shadow election where school students vote for the same candidates as in the real election, have been published:

Green League 17.1%
National Coalition Party 14.5%
Finns Party 14.5%
Centre Party 11.7%
Social Democratic Party 8.1%
Left Alliance 5.8%
Christian Democrats 4.1%
Blue Reform 3.5%
Swedish People's Party 3.3%
Seven Star Movement 2.7%
Pirate Party 2.7%
Communist Party 2.4%
Movement Now 2.2%
Animal Justice Party 1.1%

[DavidB.]

Took it for Helsinki. Only wrote down the ones I know + the one that I had a weirdly high result for:

PS 80%
Suomen Kansa Ensin 79%
Blue balls 73%
Christian Democrats 70%
Liike Nyt 67%
KOK 66%
KESK 64%
Pirates 64%
RKP 61%
Commies/KTP 58%
SDP 55%
Vihr 49%
VAS 49%
Feminists 41%

Closest candidates:
Mari Rantanen (PS, 87%), Aleksi Niskanen (PS, 83%), Toni Paussu (PS, 83%), King Jussi (PS, 82%), Mika Ebeling (KD, 81%), Wille Rydman (KOK, 81%)

[Helsinkian]

I tend to get Suomen Kansa Ensin (Finnish People First) quite high on the results as well, but I disregard them because they're a small bunch of weirdos. They grew from anti-immigration street protests, but opposing the Finns Party is almost as important of a theme for them (the same was true of the various fringe-right micro parties that preceded them). Their main claim to fame is getting into altercations with left-wingers, police officers and other people and filming those interactions. Their leader is, interestingly, Dutch-Finnish, Marco de Wit.

[Former President tack50]

The results of the "youth election", a shadow election where school students vote for the same candidates as in the real election, have been published:

Green League 17.1%
National Coalition Party 14.5%
Finns Party 14.5%
Centre Party 11.7%
Social Democratic Party 8.1%
Left Alliance 5.8%
Christian Democrats 4.1%
Blue Reform 3.5%
Swedish People's Party 3.3%
Seven Star Movement 2.7%
Pirate Party 2.7%
Communist Party 2.4%
Movement Now 2.2%
Animal Justice Party 1.1%

Huh, didn't expect students to be more pro PS than the general Finnish population. Even if it is within the margin of error, that's still higher than expected (I'd have expected PS to be below 10% with students).

Similarly the Left Alliance seems unexpectedly low (though I imagine much of their vote is being stolen by those parties getting 1-2% of the vote).

[Helsinkian]

To be clear, the youth election was conducted mostly in secondary schools, with a few primary schools involved as well, so it doesn't include university level students. With university students, Left Alliance would probably be higher.

[Former President tack50]

Apparently I'd be a Swedish speaker minority supporter in Finland lol. Also suprisingly right wing results for myself, where I usually get generic social democrats. I did not expect KOK beating SDP! (even if the difference is tiny). Same for PS above the Greens and the Left Alliance!

My results posting only the parties in colour (which I imagine are the important ones):

RKP: 72%
Liik: 72%
Pirattipuolue: 71%
KOK: 71%
SDP: 70%
Lib: 70%
KESK: 68%
SIN: 68%
KTP: 67%
PS: 67%
KD: 65%
VIHR: 64%
VAS: 63%
FP: 57%

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Well, I guess question about alcohol bumped up SDP and Christian Democrats.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

FP:72%
VIHR:72%
RKP:70%
SDP:69%
EOP:69%
VAS:68%(only )
PP:68%

I have a question. What kind of people and in which areas votes KD?

[Helsinkian]

I have a question. What kind of people and in which areas votes KD?

Socially conservative religious people, especially those in charismatic branches of Christianity like Pentecostalism and Laestadianism (though they face competition from Centre among the latter). Their chairwoman is Pentecostal. In 2015 their best municipality was Larsmo in the Swedish-speaking Ostrobothnia where they got 48% of the votes.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

I didn't know about such religious diversity in Finland.

[Helsinkian]

New Kantar TNS poll for the Helsingin Sanomat newspaper was just released:

SDP 19.5%
NCP 17.5%
Finns Party 15%
Centre 14.4%
Green 12%
Left 9.6%
SPP 4.4%
CD 4.1%
Blue 1.1%
Others 2.4%

This means that there was a 4 percentage point jump in the Finns Party's support compared to the last HS poll.

[Ethelberth]

KD has been also party for those Civil-war red families who have not been able to vote socialists (due their secularism) but unable to vote traditional White parties (Centre and Kok). Obviously, these people have been part of Pentecostal Church too, since Church in general used to bee white, before sixties. Nowadays such distinction does not exist very strongly, especially among Laestadians who live in Southern Finland. It's more like Catholics voting SGP.

[Lord Halifax]

KD has been also party for those Civil-war red families who have not been able to vote socialists (due their secularism) but unable to vote traditional White parties (Centre and Kok). Obviously, these people have been part of Pentecostal Church too, since Church in general used to bee white, before sixties. Nowadays such distinction exists very strongly, especially among Laestadians who live in Southern Finland. It's more like Catholics voting SGP.

Do you mean the Lutheran state church?

[Ethelberth]

Yes. The big element of them has been "christian intellectuals" who were influenced by Norwegian KrFP,  They were part of Lutheran church and used to vote KoK before moral revolution in sixties.  The importance of Pentecostals was that they have quite wide presence all over Finland, meaning you can get local activists anywhere in Finland.

[Helsinkian]

Early voting period ends with 36% having voted, which is up four percentage points from 2015.

[Helsinkian]

Taloustutkimus/YLE poll, the last poll before the election:

[FredLindq]

My bet is that PS becomes the largest party. They have the momentum. It Will be a hard contest among SDP, KOK and K about becoming second and probably get the task to form a new guvernment.