Finnish parliamentary election – 14 April 2019

[Helsinkian]

The election broadcast of YLE 1 starts in a few minutes. Usually YLE Areena (YLE's streaming service) is geoblocked outside the country, but now it seems to be available (I use a VPN but can see it): https://areena.yle.fi/tv/suorat

A Swedish-language broadcast is now also available: scroll down to find YLE TEEMA/FEM.

[Helsinkian]

Thanks all for the links - is there a live results map anywhere?

Cheers,

DC

https://vaalit.yle.fi/ev2019/en/regions (No colours on the map; you'll have to zoom in)

[Helsinkian]

This seems like a really, and surprisingly, bad result for PS. Is that accurate?

I wouldn't say so. The last YLE poll was the only one that gave them over 16%; the other polls from the last week gave them 15% and 13.something%. And I think they will still be at at least 16% when the election day votes come in.

I'm really glad that the traitors in Blue Reform are all losing their seats... The 1% they're getting are almost all from Finns Party's 2015 voters. If Blue Reform is discontinued, I'd expect most of those voters to return next time (though the Blue leaders will not be allowed back).

We have to remember that six months ago PS was polling at 8%...

[Helsinkian]

Being critical toward cheap foreign labour (undermining Finnish labour terms) is something that the SDP and Finns Party have in common (the Finnish term is saatavuusharkinta, not sure how to translate that; maybe some of the other Finnish posters know?). This is an issue where the SDP are at odds with Left Alliance and the Greens.

[Helsinkian]

Seat projection from Iltalehti based on preliminary vote.

I think that turnout is the only thing from election day that that projection takes into account. I'd wait for the YLE projection.

[Helsinkian]

Overall turnout is 72%. Slightly up from 2015. This is the first time that the majority of votes were given in advance.

[Helsinkian]

YLE projection:

SDP 40 seats
NCP 38
Finns 38
Centre 30
Green 23
Left 15
SPP 9
CD 5
Movement Now 1
Åland 1

[Helsinkian]

PS gains 4% compared with 2015 in Oulu, where asylum seeking men have assaulted several young Finnish women.

Yes, some left-winger commentators were saying that the police should not have talked about the events in public...

[Helsinkian]

Christian Democrats continue to be consistently the party most disadvantaged by the electoral system.

[Helsinkian]

YLE projection currently has:

SDP 17.7%
Finns 17.2%
NCP 17.2%

[Helsinkian]

YLE projection now:

SDP 40 seats
Finns 39
NCP 38

This night is working out a lot better than I expected.

[Helsinkian]

The Uusimaa suburbs (Espoo and Vantaa) were the core support areas of Timo Soini, who led the Finns Party until 2017 and then defected to Blue Reform. He isn't running now. It's conceivable that he had a group of personal supporters who would not vote for the Finns Party without him.

[Helsinkian]

Also noteworthy: PS+SIN would have been the biggest party had they been together.

[Helsinkian]

Was no one from Blue Reform close to having a personal vote, that could have given the party a seat anywhere? Or was Soini the only one who could have pulled that off?

Their top candidate seems to be at the 51st place in Uusimaa (in the comparative index) which has 36 seats. So it's not very close.

[Helsinkian]

Jussi Halla-aho will have the most personal votes. Li Andersson (VAS leader) will have the second most personal votes.

[Helsinkian]

YLE is saying there will be 83 new MPs.

[Helsinkian]

Do all the votes get counted today (or very early Monday morning) or are there eg postal/overseas etc ballots that don't get counted until later?

Thanks!

All are counted today. Then they are, per routine, all counted again early next week, and that will be the final result. Usually there aren't many changes in the second count.

[Helsinkian]

Blue Reform is still bitter at Halla-aho. A comment from an aide to one of their outgoing ministers: "Better to die honourably than to be gelded under Halla-aho."

[Helsinkian]

Uusimaa's last seat will be very close; PS might still rise to 40 seats. (Edit: probably not.)

Another very close seat is Lapland's last seat (Centre ahead of Greens by only a few votes); that might change in the confirmatory count early next week.

[Helsinkian]

Greens largest party in Helsinki for the first time.

[Helsinkian]

First black MP First black female MP elected; Bella Forsgrén, Green, Central-Finland.

[Helsinkian]

First black MP elected; Bella Forsgrén, Green, Central-Finland.

I think that Jani Toivola would regard himself as black, despite having white mother.

Ah, true, I forgot about him. First black woman then.

[Helsinkian]

The Green parliamentary group's gender divide: 17 women, 3 men. Lapland might still give them one more woman in the final count.

[Helsinkian]

This seems to be the final result of this count. Some votes still out there in Uusimaa, but unlikely to change seats. All counted now. The last seat in Lapland is currently with Centre but Greens are so closely behind that that may change in the confirmatory count early next week.

Social Democratic Party 40 seats (+6)
Finns Party 39 (+1)
National Coalition Party 38 (+1)
Centre Party 31 (-18)
Green League 20 (+5)
Left Alliance 16 (+4)
Swedish People's Party 9 (no change)
Christian Democrats 5 (no change)
Movement Now 1 (new)
Åland 1 (no change)

[Helsinkian]

Mikko Kärnä, Centre Party MP for Lapland, has for some reason made Catalonian independence the theme for which he is most well known. He even brings this up in his first tweet after being elected:

https://twitter.com/KarnaMikko/status/1117541692280856576