Finnish parliamentary election – 14 April 2019

[mgop]

My bet is that PS becomes the largest party. They have the momentum. It Will be a hard contest among SDP, KOK and K about becoming second and probably get the task to form a new guvernment.

lol

[Beezer]

So is there a particular reason for the recent PS surge? Just voters that did not like the party's track record in government coming back at the last minute?

[Hydera]

So is there a particular reason for the recent PS surge? Just voters that did not like the party's track record in government coming back at the last minute?

PS's gain seems in the expense of KOK. I wonder whats making people from the more liberal-center right party go towards PS.

[Helsinkian]

Common explanations for the PS surge are:

1) Reaction to grooming cases involving foreign (Middle Eastern) men targeting Finnish girls; these started to be reported late last year, and there have been several indictments. Most widely reported cases have been in the city of Oulu. Much of the action seems to have been organized, and there are some similarities to the widely reported grooming cases in England (it brought Katie Hopkins to Finland to talk to the party: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtgGVTFkQoE).

2) Climate change has been very much in the centre of political debates these last months, and the Finns Party may have benefited from the fact that their stance is very different from those of all other parties. They aren't outright climate change deniers, but they have denounced "climate alarmism".

3) People who voted for PS in 2015 and were then disappointed to their period in government are giving the party another chance now that there's new leadership.

[DavidB.]

Is there any "consensus" among the pundits about what the government is going to look like? Guess KESK and PS are going to do a turn in opposition, so SDP, KOK, Vihr, RKP...? Do PS want to govern?

[Helsinkian]

Is there any "consensus" among the pundits about what the government is going to look like? Guess KESK and PS are going to do a turn in opposition, so SDP, KOK, Vihr, RKP...? Do PS want to govern?

A coalition of SDP, NCP, Greens and SPP is a good bet, yes. But SDP might want to include Left Alliance, and then in that case NCP could want CD included too... That would be a repeat of the "sixpack coalition" of 2011 (Left Alliance and Greens ended up abandoning it later).

SDP voters would much prefer Centre over NCP as a partner, but if Centre loses 15 or 20 seats, I don't see them going into government.

Halla-aho says that PS wants to govern but not at any price. In practice, almost everyone is expecting PS to remain in opposition, even though Orpo somewhat softened his language on opposing PS cooperation this week (and Centre isn't absolutely opposed either).

[Aboa]

So is there a particular reason for the recent PS surge? Just voters that did not like the party's track record in government coming back at the last minute?

PS's gain seems in the expense of KOK. I wonder whats making people from the more liberal-center right party go towards PS.

According to pollsters most of PS gains come from undecided voters.

[Ethelberth]

The former SDP voters used to be element in Soini PS have gone back (at least to some extent).

[DavidB.]

Prediction:

SDP 18.5
PS 17
KOK 16.5
KESK 15
Greens 12
Left Alliance 8
RKP 5
KD 4
SIN 0.5

Turnout 72%

[Tender Branson]

In recent years, Finland has experienced a struggling economy, a negative natural population development (more deaths than births), which was compensated with a high number of (Muslim) immigrants from backwards regions - bringing crime and other abuse to the country.

In general this is good news for the far-right PS, which should do well in this election (and they seem to be rising just at the right time).

I mostly agree with David's prediction and would not even rule out PS coming in 1st.

My prediction:

SDP 19.0
PS 17.4
KOK 16.5
KESK 15.9
Greens 11.4
Left Alliance 9.3
SFP 4.7
KD 4.1
SIN 1.0
Others 0.7

Turnout 74.3%

[Helsinkian]

Here goes nothing:

Social Democratic Party 19.7%
National Coalition Party 17.1%
Finns Party 16.1%
Centre Party 13.8%
Green League 11.5%
Left Alliance 8.6%
Swedish People's Party 4.6%
Christian Democrats 3.8%
Blue Reform 1.2%
Others 3.6% (with Pirate Party at 1%)

[Helsinkian]

I voted for the Finns Party. I distributed some leaflets in the past two weeks as well; last time I had the energy for that was in 2011.

Polls close at 8 pm local time (which is 6 pm GMT). Finland doesn't do exit polls, but the results of (most) of the early voting is released at that time. Results will come here: https://vaalit.yle.fi/ev2019/en/parties

[Tender Branson]

This page is much better for results and turnout statistics:

https://tulospalvelu.vaalit.fi/EKV-2019/en/aoik_kokomaa.html

I think it's the official results page from the Finnish Interior Ministry.

Far more women have voted early (38.6%) than men (34.3%).

In total, 36.5% of domestic voters have voted early (excl. Finns living abroad).

https://tulospalvelu.vaalit.fi/EKV-2019/en/aanestys1.html

[Tender Branson]

Including Finns living abroad, 4.510.040 people are eligible to vote today.

Of them, 1.554.864 already have voted early (34.48%).

Therefore, ca. 50% of the expected total vote today was already cast early.

[Helsinkian]

A high turnout would benefit SDP, Finns Party and the Greens. A low turnout would benefit NCP and SPP.

Regarding the early vote, the usual caveats are that Centre always does better among early voters than in the overall vote, and with the Greens it's the reverse. The other parties are somewhere in between. Finns Party did better among election day voters in 2015.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Regarding the early vote, the usual caveats are that Centre always does better among early voters than in the overall vote, and with the Greens it's the reverse. The other parties are somewhere in between. Finns Party did better among election day voters in 2015.

Advanced voting 2015 / Final results 2015

KESK 23.2 / 21.1
KOK 17.9 / 18.2
PS 15.8 / 17.7 corrected (thanks to Helsinkian)
SDP 17.7 / 16.5
VIHR 7.4 / 8.5
VAS 7.8 / 7.1
SFP/RKP 3.9 / 4.9
KD 4.1 / 3.5

[Walmart_shopper]

Prediction

SDP 22
KOK and PS 16
KESK 14
Greens 13
Left Alliance 11
SFP and KD 3
SIN and others 1

Turnout 77.6%

[Helsinkian]

Advanced voting 2015 / Final results 2015

PS 15.8 / 17.2

17.7 was the final tally for PS, actually, so they went up two points when the election day votes came in. However, in other elections the difference has been smaller for them, so we'll see...

[jaichind]

The leader of Finland's center-left Social Democratic Party says he hasn't ruled out having the populist Finns Party as a governing coalition partner, but its differing "value base" is an obstacle.

[Helsinkian]

Here's the main election ad of SDP (English subtitles available): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lN9Wsrrbho

There have been several parodies, here's one with triple the views: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtOYHTRSMes

[Tender Branson]

Helsinkian, will there be a YLE projection at 7pm (8pm your time) ?

[jaichind]

Helsinkian, will there be a YLE projection at 7pm (8pm your time) ?

I thought voting stops at 8pm Helsinki time so will YLE be able to do that ?

[Helsinkian]

The YLE projection is expected circa 1h30 min to 2h after the polls close.

[Tender Branson]

The YLE projection is expected circa 1h30 min to 2h after the polls close.

Why does Finland not do an exit poll or Election Day/early voter survey for poll closing ?

Takes much of the fun away to wait 2 hours for a projection ...

[Aboa]

The YLE projection is expected circa 1h30 min to 2h after the polls close.

Why does Finland not do an exit poll or Election Day/early voter survey for poll closing ?

Takes much of the fun away to wait 2 hours for a projection ...

Preliminary votes which are published after the polls close are usually indicative of the final results, the only exit poll in Finland was conducted for the 1994 presidential election and for one reason or other ended being way off.