Finnish parliamentary election – 14 April 2019

[Helsinkian]

Halla-aho got more personal votes than all Blue Reform (SIN) candidates put together.

[Helsinkian]

Left Alliance's party rules stipulate that going into government has to be approved by the membership in a letter vote, so that's another factor.

[Helsinkian]

This map by YLE shows largest party by precinct (left), 2nd largest (middle) and third largest (right).


https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-10733264 (zoomable maps by municipality (kunnittain) and precinct (äänestysalueittain))

SDP = red
Finns Party = sky blue
NCP = dark blue
Centre = dark green
Greens = lime green
Left Alliance = maroon
SPP = yellow
CD = purple
Åland = grey

[Helsinkian]

Sipilä has resigned as Centre Party's leader. Centre intends to go to opposition (they might of course backtrack on that later in the coming weeks).

The government negotiations probably won't be finished until after the European Parliament election; if a party has to make tough compromises in the coalition agreement they won't want it published just prior to the EP election.

[Helsinkian]

Which coalition is more likely to be? I think is SDP+KOK+GL+SPP

That would be my bet.

[Helsinkian]

This seems to be the final result of this count. Some votes still out there in Uusimaa, but unlikely to change seats. All counted now. The last seat in Lapland is currently with Centre but Greens are so closely behind that that may change in the confirmatory count early next week.

Social Democratic Party 40 seats (+6)
Finns Party 39 (+1)
National Coalition Party 38 (+1)
Centre Party 31 (-18)
Green League 20 (+5)
Left Alliance 16 (+4)
Swedish People's Party 9 (no change)
Christian Democrats 5 (no change)
Movement Now 1 (new)
Åland 1 (no change)

This result is now verified following the confirmatory count which brought no changes (apart from one SDP MP changing to another SDP MP). The Greens were only 9 votes short of getting a seat in Lapland.

The full results: https://vaalit.yle.fi/ev2019/en/parties

[Helsinkian]

There are 106 men and 94 women in the new parliament.

By party:

SDP: 17 men, 23 women
Finns Party: 27 men, 12 women
NCP: 22 men, 16 women
Centre: 21 men, 10 women
Greens: 3 men, 17 women
Left Alliance: 7 men, 9 women
SPP: 5 men, 4 women
CD: 2 men, 3 women
Movement Now: 1 man
Åland: 1 man

[Helsinkian]

Finns Party now has one gay MP, Sebastian Tynkkynen. A religious man, Tynkkynen was recently expelled from his pentecostal parish because of his sexual orientation.

When Soini was the party leader, he insisted that all the party's MPs vote against same-sex marriage and reprimanded the few who did not. Halla-aho, on the other hand, has said that the MPs would be free to vote how they want in such matters.

[Helsinkian]

The new SDP MP Hussein al-Taee (the only Muslim elected) has had to apologize for his old Facebook comments where he, for example, said that he "does not see a big difference between Israel and ISIS" and even suggested that the leader of ISIS was "trained by Mossad".

The comments are wildly at odds with the public image al-Taee has sought to present of himself (he has worked with the conflict resolution organisation founded by former President Martti Ahtisaari).

[Helsinkian]

Antti Rinne has now been officially tasked with forming a government and he has started the process by sending a set of questions to all parliamentary parties. He is expecting the parties to answer them by the month's end, after which he will choose the parties with which he wants to pursue further negotiations.

[Helsinkian]

The new SDP MP Hussein al-Taee (the only Muslim elected) has had to apologize for his old Facebook comments where he, for example, said that he "does not see a big difference between Israel and ISIS" and even suggested that the leader of ISIS was "trained by Mossad".

The comments are wildly at odds with the public image al-Taee has sought to present of himself (he has worked with the conflict resolution organisation founded by former President Martti Ahtisaari).

What a surprise!

SDP has chosen the "it was in the past and he's said he's sorry" approach with al-Taee.

When Soini was the party leader, he insisted that all the party's MPs vote against same-sex marriage and reprimanded the few who did not. Halla-aho, on the other hand, has said that the MPs would be free to vote how they want in such matters.

Interesting. I would have thought Halla-aho is more conservative than Soini. What is the explanation?

Abortion and gay marriage are the two issues where Soini was the more conservative one. Halla-aho was not personally in favour of same-sex marriage either, but I think he now views that issue to be settled. Soini always stressed his religiosity in public, whereas Halla-aho is non-religious (in the past he's called himself an atheist or agnostic, but now I think he avoids specific terms and just says he's non-religious).

[Helsinkian]

The new SDP MP Hussein al-Taee (the only Muslim elected) has had to apologize for his old Facebook comments where he, for example, said that he "does not see a big difference between Israel and ISIS" and even suggested that the leader of ISIS was "trained by Mossad".

The comments are wildly at odds with the public image al-Taee has sought to present of himself (he has worked with the conflict resolution organisation founded by former President Martti Ahtisaari).

Now also in international news:

FINNISH MP UNDER FIRE FOR COMPARING ISRAEL TO ISIS

Dr. Efraim Zuroff, the head of the Jerusalem office of the Simon Wiesenthal Center, told the Jerusalem Post on Sunday: “This guy [Hussein al-Taee] is obviously an antisemite.”

https://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/Antisemitism/Finnish-MP-under-fire-for-comparing-Israel-to-ISIS-588084

[Helsinkian]

How close are they to forming a government and what parties are likely to be part of the coalition.  I presume the Social Democratic Party will supply the PM, but which other parties will be part of it.  I am guessing Greens will be maybe Left Alliance.  National Rally is possible for a more centrist one, but doubt Centre Party wants to be part of it and I think all parties promised to excluded Finns.

Antti Rinne of SDP is expected to announce in a few days time which parties he wants to invite to the formal coalition negotiations. Centre Party listed ten preconditions which the coalition should agree to as their price of joining a new coalition; such a long list of preconditions from a party that lost 18 seats was interpreted as Centre signalling that they aren't willing to join a coalition without outright saying so.

[Helsinkian]

The new parliament is making changes to the parties' sitting arrangement in the plenary. Until now, the Finns Party had been seated in the centre of the plenary, while the Swedish People's Party had been seated furthest to the right. From now on, the Finns Party will be seated in the far-right of the plenary, while the SPP will be moved to the centre. Usually the parties try to achieve unanimity in these things but this time the change is being made in spite of the Finns Party's opposition to the move which they denounced as "bullying" by the other parties.

The previous seating arrangement had historical reasons: the Finns Party was seated next to the Centre Party because their predecessor (Finnish Rural Party) originated as a split from the Centre Party, while the Swedish People's Party was originally seated in the far-right because that allowed them to be close to the parliament's translators who were seated to the right of the Speaker.

[Helsinkian]

There are whispers that Rinne might go for a SDP+Centre+Greens+Left+SPP coalition after all, instead of the SDP+NCP+Greens+SPP that many were expecting. Of course he could just be signalling to NCP that they are not his only option and thus can't expect to get everything they want. He will make an announcement on tuesday wednesday.

[Helsinkian]

Would you rather see the Centre Party or the NCP in government?

It might be good for the NCP to be in opposition for a change; maybe that would bring them closer to the Finns Party.

[Helsinkian]

Would you rather see the Centre Party or the NCP in government?

It might be good for the NCP to be in opposition for a change; maybe that would bring them closer to the Finns Party.

Aren't the NCP like the most socially liberal and culturally progressive (along with being the most-pro immigration) of the major Finnish parties though?

They are now, but there are still some conservatives left who might want to reorientate the party toward what it used to be. That would first require a change of leadership, though.

[Helsinkian]

You mean, what it used to be in fifties. Have you lived in fifties.

Do Wille Rydman, Susanna Koski or Atte Kaleva live in the fifties? All would be good fits in the Finns Party but have nevertheless remained in NCP for one reason or another.

Eija-Riitta Korhola, former NCP MEP, criticized the party for tacking too close to the Greens, resulting in NCP losing voters to PS.

Jukka Kopra, NCP MP, said that a coalition of SDP, NCP and PS should be considered.

Terhi Koulumies, NCP MP, said that the party needs to maintain relations with PS.

In January of this year a poll of NCP influencers (incl. MPs, members of the party board, local leaders) found that 61% believed that NCP could go to coalition with PS.

While this doesn't mean that all of them agree with PS policies, these statements are nevertheless miles apart from Petteri Orpo's "our values do not allow us to work with Halla-aho's Finns Party" mantra of 2017.

[Helsinkian]

First opinion poll conducted after the election (HS/Kantar TNS):

Finns Party 18.7%
NCP 17.1%
SDP 16.9%
Greens 12.8%
Centre 12.7%
Left 8.3%
SPP 4.4%
CD 4.1%
Movement Now 2.5%
Blue 0.5%
Others 2%

The last time PS was polling first was shortly after the 2011 election.

I'd still expect NCP to finish first in the European Parliament election, as the low turnout favours them (also, Movement Now is not standing in the EP election, which benefits NCP).

[Helsinkian]

When was it like that? Haven't they been the most liberal party since at least the 1990s or so?

I'd be satisfied with them going back even to the 1980s situation...

[Helsinkian]

We need to make a distinction between the politicians of the party and its base. A good part of the NCP base continues to be conservative, even when the party leadership is not. Part of that is down to ancestral voting patterns: if your father and grandfather voted for NCP, you'll continue to support it out of tradition (a recent study found that this effect was strongest with the NCP of all parties). And there are some highly educated NCP voters who agree with a lot of what the Finns Party says about immigration policy but still can't bring themselves to vote for PS because of the party's reputation. They will then vote for the likes of Wille Rydman, that is, members of NCP's conservative wing.

Interestingly, the NCP leadership has screwed over its base several times, but still the base sticks by it. The party congress theoretically has the highest authority within the party, but when the party congress voted to oppose mandatory Swedish teaching in schools (during Katainen's leadership) it was ignored by the party leaders, and the same thing happened when the party congress voted to oppose the Treaty of Ottawa (prohibition of landmines).

[Helsinkian]

Here's how the newspaper Helsingin Sanomat places the parties based on their MPs' answers to its electoral compass. It has an economic left–right axis and a social issues conservative–liberal axis. The arrows indicate movement compared to 2015. The numbers indicate the number of MPs from the party who answered the compass.

[Helsinkian]

Rinne has officially announced that he intends to form a coalition consisting of SDP, Centre Party, Greens, Left Alliance and the Swedish People's Party. They will now begin formal coalition negotiations which will last at least three weeks and maybe longer. The five parties have 117 seats in the parliament.

When Rinne held informal talks with the other party heads in the past few days he talked about an hour with most of them but five hours with NCP's Orpo. Some thought that would mean they would form a coalition but apparently it meant that NCP was being difficult with their demands on the economy, austerity.

Prior to agreeing to the coalition, the Centre Party had asked the party executive, the party board and the parliamentary group for their opinion. 80% of the respondents had favoured going into government.

[Helsinkian]

I guess Centre thought they lost votes because they were percieved as too right-wing, so they could recover by shifting towards the left and being in a left-leaning government?

Yes. The right-wing turn was personified in PM Sipilä and the transportation minister Anne Berner who will be remembered for the (unpopular) deregulation of the taxi business. Sipilä will probably become the parliament's Speaker; that allows him an honourable exit from active politicking (since the Speaker is expected to be neutral).

Berner is returning to the private sector. Berner only joined the party just prior to the 2015 election, and after she had reneged on her commitment to stand as an NCP candidate – she calculated that Centre would be the bigger party in 2015 and thus made her party choice with little ideological commitment. Many veteran Centre politicians were bitter when Berner was chosen to be minister as a first term MP.

[Helsinkian]

Are there any studies that have (or are going to) show the general support for the parties among different demographics (like working class voters)?

I couldn't find anything recent. In a 2013 poll SDP and Finns Party were tied with working class voters at around 25%.

To return to this theme, the first YLE poll after the election has Finns Party as overall number one with 18.8%; among working-class voters PS is also number one with 33.2%