Finnish parliamentary election – 14 April 2019

[DavidB.]

Thanks for your detailed introduction! KESK should just campaign on "Pannaan suomi kuntoon" and everything will be okay for them

On a more serious note - is the general consensus that PS are losing so much because of the fact that Soini et al. got nothing done in government, because Halla-aho steered the party so much to the right, or both? And is the 'all-right wing' government seen as kind of an experiment given Finland's tradition of broad, generally centrist coalitions, or not so much? How popular or unpopular is the government?

[DavidB.]

The Centre Party's Swedish-speaking organisation is telling their members to skip the election, arguing that the Centre Party under Sipilä has become a party of "neoliberal hard right-wing politics". There aren't that many Swedish-speakers in the Centre Party, but it's still pretty embarassing for them.

Sounds like the type of trick you can pull off exactly once and then lose all your credibility afterwards.

[DavidB.]

Great to see PS surge. Told you so! Are there any Votematch-like tests?

How have Finnish media responded to the news of PS teaming up with AfD, Lega and DF?

[DavidB.]

Took it for Helsinki. Only wrote down the ones I know + the one that I had a weirdly high result for:

PS 80%
Suomen Kansa Ensin 79%
Blue balls 73%
Christian Democrats 70%
Liike Nyt 67%
KOK 66%
KESK 64%
Pirates 64%
RKP 61%
Commies/KTP 58%
SDP 55%
Vihr 49%
VAS 49%
Feminists 41%

Closest candidates:
Mari Rantanen (PS, 87%), Aleksi Niskanen (PS, 83%), Toni Paussu (PS, 83%), King Jussi (PS, 82%), Mika Ebeling (KD, 81%), Wille Rydman (KOK, 81%)

[DavidB.]

Is there any "consensus" among the pundits about what the government is going to look like? Guess KESK and PS are going to do a turn in opposition, so SDP, KOK, Vihr, RKP...? Do PS want to govern?

[DavidB.]

Prediction:

SDP 18.5
PS 17
KOK 16.5
KESK 15
Greens 12
Left Alliance 8
RKP 5
KD 4
SIN 0.5

Turnout 72%

[DavidB.]

In seats (early vote):

SDP 41
KOK 37
PS 32
KESK 31
Greens 24
Left Alliance 18
RKP 9
KD 6
Blue Future 0

[DavidB.]

With 37% counted:

So this includes some of the e-day vote but excludes that 25% of the early vote that was not counted?

[DavidB.]

Insane decline for Center in terms of seats compared to their performance in percentage. Is their vote that badly distributed?

[DavidB.]

Some more questions:

1. How is the result interpreted in Finland? A repudiation of the right-wing economic policy of the KESK-KOK-PN/SIN govt?

2. Where do the Green and Left gains come from?

3. I get the impression that the SDP electorate is still pretty working-class. Is this why the leadership isn't that "new left" and is even (at least theoretically) open to working with PS under Halla-aho?

[DavidB.]

This seems like a really, and surprisingly, bad result for PS. Is that accurate?

PS is at 15.9% already with only some of the e-day vote in. Wouldn't be surprised to see them rise to 17-18%. A few months ago they were expected to decline to 8-9%. And the current Finns Party is much further right than the Finns Party in 2015. If they get anything close to their 17.7% in 2015 (and it seems they will) it will be a great night for them.

[DavidB.]

Thanks! As for 1, it makes sense to me that the main driving force behind this economic policy with the base that would be most inclined to support it (i.e. KOK, of course) isn't punished for it, but its more economic left-wing partners are. With Halla-aho's PS having dissociated itself from the government and its policy for quite a while, it would make sense that KESK pays most of the electoral price - and the SIN people, of course.

For 2, I actually meant to ask from which party these people come. Seems like Center is fatally wounded in Helsinki and NCP are taking a hit as well. I can definitely imagine an NCP -> Green voter.

[DavidB.]

Finns have risen to 17.1%. Suspect they'll end up with about the same result as in 2015 or even more. Though they may decline a bit when Helsinki's polling stations start coming in. Still absolutely impressive.

[DavidB.]

76% of the vote now in, but only 60% from Helsinki and 46% from the surrounding, densely populated area Uusimaa. Both NCP and Finns should be doing well in Uusimaa. SDP seem to be underperforming.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, seems as if PS may gain, not lose. What coalitions with PS and SDP are possible if PS top the poll? Together with KOK will be too right-wing for the SDP, but I doubt the Greens and Left Alliance would be willing to govern with PS... and Center will definitely not go for another round in the government, I suppose, even though SDP-Finns-Center is ideologically compatible.

[DavidB.]

I am confused on how the Finns vote share could be going up as more of Helsinki comes in ..

I don't think it will be going up anymore. But SDP will go down even further. And it seems as if PS are doing pretty well (13-14%) in the Helsinki e-day vote while overperforming their national score in Uusimaa by about the same margin as in 2015.

[DavidB.]

If SDP still top the poll it will be because of PS' underperformance in Uusimaa. Their performance in Helsinki seems to be impressive.

YLE now has both SDP and PS at 40 seats.

[DavidB.]

This is looking like an absolutely awful result for the SDP even if they top the poll, pretty comparable to the "win" of Swedish S in 2014. Their second-worst result ever. If their highs look like this, I don't think they want to know what their lows may look like.

[DavidB.]

PS have declined in seat % for the first time, to 17.6%.

[DavidB.]

PS will improve on their 2015 result in raw votes. With 97% in they are now less than 100 votes down.

[DavidB.]

I liked this visualization.

[DavidB.]

The new SDP MP Hussein al-Taee (the only Muslim elected) has had to apologize for his old Facebook comments where he, for example, said that he "does not see a big difference between Israel and ISIS" and even suggested that the leader of ISIS was "trained by Mossad".

The comments are wildly at odds with the public image al-Taee has sought to present of himself (he has worked with the conflict resolution organisation founded by former President Martti Ahtisaari).

What a surprise!

When Soini was the party leader, he insisted that all the party's MPs vote against same-sex marriage and reprimanded the few who did not. Halla-aho, on the other hand, has said that the MPs would be free to vote how they want in such matters.

Interesting. I would have thought Halla-aho is more conservative than Soini. What is the explanation?

[DavidB.]

The aforementioned al-Taee has acknowledged and apologized for his earlier even more inflammatory facebook posts about Gays, Jews, Sunnis and Somalis among others. Until now he had tried to imply that the posts might have been doctored.

I recall similar comments by Halla-aho. SDP-Finns coalition soon

[DavidB.]

Greens

• Foreign affairs

Is a Palestine recognition (following Sweden) likely now?