Predict Maine

[Gracile]

Sara Gideon wins 49.8% to 46.7%

Once again, such a result is impossible because ranked-choice voting would mean a candidate would have to win with 50% or more of the vote.

[Roll Roons]

With RCV, how likely is it that we know the outcome of this race on election night?

[Tintrlvr]

With RCV, how likely is it that we know the outcome of this race on election night?

Well, as a technical matter that's equivalent to the odds of one candidate getting over 50%. Which I think is quite high but others may disagree.

Maine does not do RCV calculations until well after the election (after all ballots, including military ballots, provisional ballots and other ballots that are often counted weeks after election day, are counted).

Of course, if the result is something like the 49.8%-46.7% cited above on election night, you can certainly call the race, but there is a technical possibility of RCV changing the result. Based on experience in 2018, though, a large portion of voters will not even indicate a second choice.

[VAR]

Gideon by more than +7, I think. It won't be close. Maybe Biden+15 and Gideon+10.

Lol

[BigSerg]

I have a feeling it’ll be a ‘surprise’ that defies conventional wisdom either way (i.e., either Collins ekes out another win OR barely outperforms Trump).

[BigSerg]

I think Gideon will win pretty big. Collins reeks of the incumbent people over-estimate when her whole rep has been sullied, and the age of splitting tickets is over. Biden will win by 10-14 points statewide here, and I don't see Gideon lagging that far behind. Probably a mid to high single digit Gideon win when all is said and done.

I'll go Gideon +6 now, but in a week or so when I make final predictions I may inch a point or two higher. It would amuse me if Titanium D Mark Kelly’s margin is about the same or even smaller than Gideon’s — but not necessarily surprise me.

Collins winning would actually surprise me. And it would only happen by the thinnest of margins. But this race is not a dead heat. Montana, Iowa, Georgia,  North Carolina? Those are the 50/50 races.

[xavier110]

I think Gideon will win pretty big. Collins reeks of the incumbent people over-estimate when her whole rep has been sullied, and the age of splitting tickets is over. Biden will win by 10-14 points statewide here, and I don't see Gideon lagging that far behind. Probably a mid to high single digit Gideon win when all is said and done.

I'll go Gideon +6 now, but in a week or so when I make final predictions I may inch a point or two higher. It would amuse me if Titanium D Mark Kelly’s margin is about the same or even smaller than Gideon’s — but not necessarily surprise me.

Collins winning would actually surprise me. And it would only happen by the thinnest of margins. But this race is not a dead heat. Montana, Iowa, Georgia,  North Carolina? Those are the 50/50 races.

Guess not! Every other Senate candidate basically ran alongside their party’s presidential candidate this year... but her

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All the Ds on the forum from Atlasia said Gideon was a shoe in for reelection due to Collins vote for Kavanaugh, they were so wrong on this race

[fluffypanther19]

goodness gracious, remind me to always bet against atlas. i'll never lose

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Collins isn't ever going to lose.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is hilarious that Gideon lost all the partisan D's on Atlasia told us not as members on Atlasia, that Gideon was a shoe in and so was Cunningham. Well Tillis isn't Elizabeth Dole, he has good approvals among Indies and Ds

The only reason why King is in Olympia Snowe seat, she retired voluntarily, if she was renominated by Rs to go against D's,the D's would have lost to her in 2012