GA-SEN 2020 Class II Megathread (Perdue inc.)

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Someone good like Stacey Evans would have beaten Kemp. Still held the same numbers everywhere, but do better in the rural areas to barely make it over the top. Abrams is a toxic fit for rural GA, did worse than Hillary there, sad!

Sure, maybe she would have done ~5% better than Abrams in rural areas... and black, Hisapnic, and college educated white turnout would have plummeted too.

[DrScholl]

Abrams had damaged herself significantly first with her conspiratorial assertion that she actually won the election. And then by going so national in liberal circles and shedding any kind of bipartisan image she was trying to sell in '18. People also forget she carried quite a bit of baggage as a candidate I still don't think her financial issues didn't not end up mattering, may have turned off white college educateds.

She never said she won, what she meant was it was a moral victory. But considering who was running the Secretary of State's office there was a lot done ahead of time to tip the scales in his own favor.

Educateds is not a word. If you are going to talk down about someone you can at least use real words while doing it.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams had damaged herself significantly first with her conspiratorial assertion that she actually won the election. And then by going so national in liberal circles and shedding any kind of bipartisan image she was trying to sell in '18. People also forget she carried quite a bit of baggage as a candidate I still don't think her financial issues didn't not end up mattering, may have turned off white college educateds.

It was not a conspiracy. She has filed a federal lawsuit that lays out the case that there was rampant voter suppression that affected voters statewide. Enough voters that would have affected the outcome of the election I might add. Like she said in her speech ending her campaign she could have challenged the entire election but did not want an office if she had to scheme her way into it. When she says she won she means because she irrevocably changed Georgia's electorate (which she did).

White college educated voters swung hard to her so the rest of your post is false.

[S019]

Tomlinson Officially IN:

https://www.ledger-enquirer.com/news/politics-government/article229865689.html


Tilt R, Perdue 50-48 in runoff

[SnowLabrador]

Tilt R, Perdue 50-48 in runoff

In the runoff, there are only two candidates. Perdue could win 51-49 there, but not 50-48, because there'd be no one to get the 2% of third-party votes.

[S019]

Tilt R, Perdue 50-48 in runoff

In the runoff, there are only two candidates. Perdue could win 51-49 there, but not 50-48, because there'd be no one to get the 2% of third-party votes.

There is always the chance of blank/spoiled ballots, also using rounding

[QAnonKelly]

Someone good like Stacey Evans would have beaten Kemp. Still held the same numbers everywhere, but do better in the rural areas to barely make it over the top. Abrams is a toxic fit for rural GA, did worse than Hillary there, sad!

Lol ok bro

[skbl17]

In browsing the GA-SEN 2020 page on Wikipedia, I did find a March 2019 poll on the 2020 race, but it's a DSCC-sponsored poll, and they didn't test Purdue vs. Generic D or any combination of Tomlinson/Ossoff/Amico, but Generic R vs. Generic D: 42 D-40 R. Not horrible but I don't see that as very meaningful right now.

Purdue does have good net favorability (41/30, so +9,) but a lot of undecideds (29%). That does track with other polling specifically on Purdue's favorability or approval: liked but also kind of unknown.

They tested Trump favorability (46/52 for all voters, 37/51 among independents) but not approval.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tilt R, Perdue 50-48 in runoff

In the runoff, there are only two candidates. Perdue could win 51-49 there, but not 50-48, because there'd be no one to get the 2% of third-party votes.

There is always the chance of blank/spoiled ballots, also using rounding

There will be very few of these.  Overvotes for the same race are prevented by the voting machine, I believe.  And blank entries will be minimal with this being the major race (and possibly the only one) on a runoff ballot.

[Pandaguineapig]

It looks like Stacey Abrams is too busy deluding herself that she is actually governor of Georgia to run for this seat, Likely R

[henster]

I think we dodged a bullet with Abrams frankly.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1124376293900980230

[Rookie Yinzer]

I think we dodged a bullet with Abrams frankly.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1124376293900980230

You assemble a room of 20 black women and they will agree with exactly what she said. Brian Kemp with the help of Republican operatives in local county election offices cheated. I love how uncomfortable Abrams makes people who want to pretend that America is above tinkering with democracy as if black people and Native Americans weren't restricted from voting fifty damn years ago.

Anyway, this isn't Iowa. She doesn't need to tow a line so she doesn't scare away weak-kneed white people who have rose colored glasses on about voter suppression. She has a hefty 40% non-white electorate and progressive whites that she can turn out and a growing share of suburban whites. She has said nothing as incendiary as Donald Trump and everything she says can be backed up with facts.

We need fair elections in Georgia. Change only comes when we have uncomfortable conversations. 

[QAnonKelly]

I hope the primary doesn't get too crowded. Tomlinson has been able to scoop up the good people and quite frankly the eventual nom needs to hoard as much cash as possible given this is very likely headed to a runoff

[Rookie Yinzer]

I hope the primary doesn't get too crowded. Tomlinson has been able to scoop up the good people and quite frankly the eventual nom needs to hoard as much cash as possible given this is very likely headed to a runoff

If I were Amico or Ossoff I would just wait until 2022. If Trump is re-elected the dam will burst open in GA in 2022. If Trump loses, GA is inelastic enough to avoid DemPOTUS backlash and they will have Abrams on the ballot with them.

[Pandaguineapig]

I think we dodged a bullet with Abrams frankly.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1124376293900980230

You assemble a room of 20 black women and they will agree with exactly what she said. Brian Kemp with the help of Republican operatives in local county election offices cheated. I love how uncomfortable Abrams makes people who want to pretend that America is above tinkering with democracy as if black people and Native Americans weren't restricted from voting fifty damn years ago.

Anyway, this isn't Iowa. She doesn't need to tow a line so she doesn't scare away weak-kneed white people who have rose colored glasses on about voter suppression. She has a hefty 40% non-white electorate and progressive whites that she can turn out and a growing share of suburban whites. She has said nothing as incendiary as Donald Trump and everything she says can be backed up with facts.

We need fair elections in Georgia. Change only comes when we have uncomfortable conversations. 

This kind of delusion is unhealthy, there is no proof whatsoever that there were thousands of minority voters who were barred from voting during the 2018 election (in fact that election broke turnout records)

I don't even think Abrams is dumb enough to think she actually won, she is using this whole scheme as a way to raise money from some very gullible people (Just like the Florida recounts last year or Jill Stein's recounts in 2016)

[Rookie Yinzer]

I think we dodged a bullet with Abrams frankly.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1124376293900980230

You assemble a room of 20 black women and they will agree with exactly what she said. Brian Kemp with the help of Republican operatives in local county election offices cheated. I love how uncomfortable Abrams makes people who want to pretend that America is above tinkering with democracy as if black people and Native Americans weren't restricted from voting fifty damn years ago.

Anyway, this isn't Iowa. She doesn't need to tow a line so she doesn't scare away weak-kneed white people who have rose colored glasses on about voter suppression. She has a hefty 40% non-white electorate and progressive whites that she can turn out and a growing share of suburban whites. She has said nothing as incendiary as Donald Trump and everything she says can be backed up with facts.

We need fair elections in Georgia. Change only comes when we have uncomfortable conversations. 

This kind of delusion is unhealthy, there is no proof whatsoever that there were thousands of minority voters who were barred from voting during the 2018 election (in fact that election broke turnout records)

I don't even think Abrams is dumb enough to think she actually won, she is using this whole scheme as a way to raise money from some very gullible people (Just like the Florida recounts last year or Jill Stein's recounts in 2016)

So.... since I actually live here and was working the voter protection hotline on Election Day when power cords for the machines were missing at the blackest precincts in Gwinnett County causing four hour lines where people had to leave to go to work, where precincts in Fulton County where Abrams was running up the score with 95-99 percent of the vote ran out of provisional ballots so everyone who wanted one was told to go home, where Asian and Latino absentee ballots were rejected in Gwinnett County at 10x the rate of everyone else. I will believe MY EXPERIENCE before your narrative when you don’t even live here.

There are 6.4 million people on the rolls. 4.1 million of them voting doesn’t mean there wasn’t voter suppression.

Abrams saying she won is metaphorical. She irrevocably changed Georgia’s electorate. She recognizes Brian Kemp received a sufficient number of votes to become Governor. The election just wasn’t fair. It’s funny watching people who make excuses for every incendiary and heinous thing Trump says all of a sudden want to take everyone else’s words literally.

[Canis]

I think we dodged a bullet with Abrams frankly.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1124376293900980230

You assemble a room of 20 black women and they will agree with exactly what she said. Brian Kemp with the help of Republican operatives in local county election offices cheated. I love how uncomfortable Abrams makes people who want to pretend that America is above tinkering with democracy as if black people and Native Americans weren't restricted from voting fifty damn years ago.

Anyway, this isn't Iowa. She doesn't need to tow a line so she doesn't scare away weak-kneed white people who have rose colored glasses on about voter suppression. She has a hefty 40% non-white electorate and progressive whites that she can turn out and a growing share of suburban whites. She has said nothing as incendiary as Donald Trump and everything she says can be backed up with facts.

We need fair elections in Georgia. Change only comes when we have uncomfortable conversations. 

This kind of delusion is unhealthy, there is no proof whatsoever that there were thousands of minority voters who were barred from voting during the 2018 election (in fact that election broke turnout records)

I don't even think Abrams is dumb enough to think she actually won, she is using this whole scheme as a way to raise money from some very gullible people (Just like the Florida recounts last year or Jill Stein's recounts in 2016)

So.... since I actually live here and was working the voter protection hotline on Election Day when power cords for the machines were missing at the blackest precincts in Gwinnett County causing four hour lines where people had to leave to go to work, where precincts in Fulton County where Abrams was running up the score with 95-99 percent of the vote ran out of provisional ballots so everyone who wanted one was told to go home, where Asian and Latino absentee ballots were rejected in Gwinnett County at 10x the rate of everyone else. I will believe MY EXPERIENCE before your narrative when you don’t even live here.

There are 6.4 million people on the rolls. 4.1 million of them voting doesn’t mean there wasn’t voter suppression.

Abrams saying she won is metaphorical. She irrevocably changed Georgia’s electorate. She recognizes Brian Kemp received a sufficient number of votes to become Governor. The election just wasn’t fair. It’s funny watching people who make excuses for every incendiary and heinous thing Trump says all of a sudden want to take everyone else’s words literally.

Jesus mad respect for this post I know we've had our disagreements in the past but that was amazing

[Lechasseur]

Someone good like Stacey Evans would have beaten Kemp. Still held the same numbers everywhere, but do better in the rural areas to barely make it over the top. Abrams is a toxic fit for rural GA, did worse than Hillary there, sad!

Anybody who watched her hilariously bad campaign in the primary knows this is patently false.

Does anyone think Jason Carter would have beaten Kemp here? I think he may have.

I agree Evans most likely wouldn't have though (and that Abrams was a stonger candidate than Evans).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Someone good like Stacey Evans would have beaten Kemp. Still held the same numbers everywhere, but do better in the rural areas to barely make it over the top. Abrams is a toxic fit for rural GA, did worse than Hillary there, sad!

Anybody who watched her hilariously bad campaign in the primary knows this is patently false.

Does anyone think Jason Carter would have beaten Kemp here? I think he may have.

I agree Evans most likely wouldn't have though (and that Abrams was a stonger candidate than Evans).

Ok maybe not Evans, but I think Barrow would have beaten Kemp.

[pppolitics]

Georgia senator says he's not worried about his state losing film business over abortion ban


https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/13/us/georgia-senator-abortion-ban-film-business-trnd/index.html

[Rookie Yinzer]

Georgia senator says he's not worried about his state losing film business over abortion ban


https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/13/us/georgia-senator-abortion-ban-film-business-trnd/index.html

Right. Because the white people from California and the working class black people who benefit from the industry do not vote Republican. The GOP is garbage.

I mentioned in the other thread that I heard Tomlinson today. I definitely considered her the best of the "second tier" but she is really freaking good. A candidate on par with Stacey Abrams. She answered every question directly and didn't try to squirm out of anything. I'm all in.

[Bidenworth2020]

Georgia senator says he's not worried about his state losing film business over abortion ban


https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/13/us/georgia-senator-abortion-ban-film-business-trnd/index.html

Right. Because the white people from California and the working class black people who benefit from the industry do not vote Republican. The GOP is garbage.

I mentioned in the other thread that I heard Tomlinson today. I definitely considered her the best of the "second tier" but she is really freaking good. A candidate on par with Stacey Abrams. She answered every question directly and didn't try to squirm out of anything. I'm all in.

You think she can organize like Abrams?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Georgia senator says he's not worried about his state losing film business over abortion ban


https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/13/us/georgia-senator-abortion-ban-film-business-trnd/index.html

Right. Because the white people from California and the working class black people who benefit from the industry do not vote Republican. The GOP is garbage.

I mentioned in the other thread that I heard Tomlinson today. I definitely considered her the best of the "second tier" but she is really freaking good. A candidate on par with Stacey Abrams. She answered every question directly and didn't try to squirm out of anything. I'm all in.

You think she can organize like Abrams?

Don't know how she'll be received by the population at large but she is definitely emphasizing direct voter contact at the doors like Abrams did vs a barrage of tv ads leading up to the primary like Evans.

[QAnonKelly]

Perdue definitely is open season for attack ad fodder. The man is a gaffe master 

[Rookie Yinzer]

Perdue definitely is open season for attack ad fodder. The man is a gaffe master 

Didn't he knock somebody's phone out of their hand or something? And lead a prayer asking for Obama's death and for his children to be homeless? Just ugh at the fact that at least 48 percent of our population will vote for this jackass no matter what.