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Author Topic: GA- 2020 Senate Election Megathread  (Read 3413 times)
Thunder98
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« on: January 12, 2019, 10:13:16 am »

Stacey Abrams is being considered to run against Purdue next week after talking with Democratic Pary leaders.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/11/stacey-abrams-senate-campaign-1097718
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« Reply #1 on: January 12, 2019, 12:42:16 pm »

She would be our best candidate, and would certainly clear the Dem field.

I still would say Perdue is favoured, but I wouldn’t exactly like to be an incumbent with a mere +1 net approval.
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« Reply #2 on: January 12, 2019, 01:48:19 pm »

After the Republican won the Secretary of State runoff, I think that Abrams stands no chance.
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« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2019, 02:04:02 pm »

Abrams has very, very little chance to win this race. Results of last year elections showed that Georgia is very inelastic
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GoldenMainer
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« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2019, 02:09:53 pm »

I'm keeping an eye on Teresa Tomlinson but I like Stacey as well.

What is the general analysis of Stacey's gubernatorial run? The Atlanta suburbs moved in our direction but was that anti-Trump or pro-Stacey? How was Democratic turnout in other areas?
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« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2019, 02:15:09 pm »

I like Abrams, but Georgia is fool's gold for democrats, even more so than Kentucky.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2019, 02:18:36 pm »

I like Abrams, but Georgia is fool's gold for democrats, even more so than Kentucky.

Dems are beating expectations in the House in the 50 state strategy. Yes, the R's kept the red state govs. But, the 40 seat pickup in House proves 50 state strategy works. Abrams will be formidable☺
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Thunder98
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« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2019, 02:36:19 pm »

The two races this year has been much closer compared to past elections but not enough for the Dems yet. I think the Senate race is toss up imo due to sharp D trending the Atlanta Metro, Demographic change, and rapid population growth.

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Past gov election results:
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« Last Edit: January 12, 2019, 08:42:39 pm by Jeb Bush »Logged
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« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2019, 02:38:43 pm »

After the Republican won the Secretary of State runoff, I think that Abrams stands no chance.

Abrams won't lose Cobb County and will do better than a 1 point victory in Gwinnett County, so I don't think you should be using that to say "Abrams stands no chance"
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olowakandi
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« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2019, 02:55:20 pm »

The 50 state strategy is working
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Pollster
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« Reply #10 on: January 12, 2019, 03:50:31 pm »

Still of the belief that Abrams should sit this one out in favor of Tomlinson, and work the cycle to elect as many of her allies to the State Senate and House as possible in preparation for the 2022 gubernatorial election.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #11 on: January 12, 2019, 08:23:42 pm »

Only on Atlas would people that that a Trend R Trump +30 state is more likely to kick out an incumbent Republican Senator than a Trend D Trump +5 state. Sure, the fact that a Democrat would need to hit 50% against Perdue helps him, but in no universe is this race less likely to flip than Kentucky.
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« Reply #12 on: January 12, 2019, 11:56:43 pm »

Perdue has a tough fight ahead but I don’t see how he doesn’t pull it out at this point. The math just isn’t there yet. I think we’ll pick up Isakson’s seat in 22. I’d rather Tomlinson run this go around tho.
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« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2019, 11:07:40 pm »

I'm keeping an eye on Teresa Tomlinson but I like Stacey as well.

What is the general analysis of Stacey's gubernatorial run? The Atlanta suburbs moved in our direction but was that anti-Trump or pro-Stacey? How was Democratic turnout in other areas?
she did really badly in the rurals/non-atlanta areas, even worse than clinton. if she’d maintained clinton’s margins she likely would have won
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« Reply #14 on: January 15, 2019, 12:09:58 am »

Abrams has very, very little chance to win this race. Results of last year elections showed that Georgia is very inelastic
She brought a perpetual 6-8 point loss for Democrats in this state down to 1 point and this is with heaps of voter suppression at work. Yall just say anything. LOL.

Still of the belief that Abrams should sit this one out in favor of Tomlinson, and work the cycle to elect as many of her allies to the State Senate and House as possible in preparation for the 2022 gubernatorial election.
This. There are quite a few seats in the Metro that could have flipped with a little bit more attention. She should just save her energy. Once this federal lawsuit plays out she will have a hook for her 2022 run against the architect of voter suppression in this state.

What is the general analysis of Stacey's gubernatorial run? The Atlanta suburbs moved in our direction but was that anti-Trump or pro-Stacey? How was Democratic turnout in other areas?
She turned out black voters heavy in the South Metro (Clayton, Henry, Rockdale, Newton), did pretty solid in Bibb, Muscogee, Chatham, and Richmond, got Latinos and Asians out huge in Gwinnett, ran it up with white progressives in Athens, Fulton, and DeKalb, and got some crossover voting from swingy/GOP-lite whites in Fayette, Cobb, Forsyth, and Cherokee. If you look at the results in counties like Oconee, Houston, and Columbia she obviously made inroads in these wealthy, white counties statewide. Will they flip? No. But she did pretty solid for a Democrat.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2019, 12:19:51 am by RFKFan68 »Logged
Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #15 on: January 15, 2019, 07:17:22 pm »

I'm also very bearish on Georgia. It's a really tough nut to crack, but it is definitely moving closer to being competitive for Democrats, albeit glacially. As such, it's worth a shot to have Abrams run and see if she has better luck this time. I wouldn't hold my breath, but she did about as well as she possibly could have in 2018, and it was actually a pretty great showing, all things considered.
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Shadows
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« Reply #16 on: January 15, 2019, 11:13:25 pm »

Abrams should run in 2020.  This waiting for 4-6 years etc often means your time has passed & a new flavor comes along. Strike while the iron is hot.

Also 2020 is a Presidential race & will have strong turnout including among young people. When a Democrat beats Trump in 2020, turnout will be mediocre & will be low among young people.

I say she goes all in on 2020. She got it down to 1%. Half the people don't vote & this is a game of turnout. With strong turnout she can win. She is a phenomenal candidate. She can win & she should run !

Also Trump is @ the top of the ticket. If Dem have a good candidate, there is always a chance that Trump implodes !
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #17 on: January 15, 2019, 11:45:52 pm »

If Abrams runs again in 2020, she will lose again. And then she will talk about having another "do-over".....
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« Reply #18 on: January 16, 2019, 12:12:00 am »

I think this might actually work, if there is enough of a surge of new Democratic voters from top ticket enthusiasm, GA could flip and do so in a way that doesn't allow for much ticket splitting.
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« Reply #19 on: January 19, 2019, 05:08:29 pm »

I don’t see any harm in her running for Senate. A Senate seat matters more to me than the GA governorship, so I’d rather our best candidate run for that. And it’s not like GA is getting any redder. Two years is more than enough time for Abrams to overcome a 1% margin solely through demographic change in metro ATL alone. I think Abrams vs. Perdue would start at tossup
« Last Edit: January 19, 2019, 05:27:06 pm by The Inevitable Kevin Stitt »Logged
Roll Roons
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« Reply #20 on: January 20, 2019, 10:58:27 pm »

Jon Ossoff considering. I'm sure that'll go great.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/421378-jon-ossoff-considering-2020-run-for-senate-in-georgia
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« Reply #21 on: January 23, 2019, 02:39:26 pm »

She's back in Washington. Again. I think she's going to pull the trigger.

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« Reply #22 on: January 23, 2019, 03:29:50 pm »


He had his chance and he blew it (though it MOSTLY wasn't his fault that the race got nationalized in a way that really wasn't helpful for him).
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #23 on: January 24, 2019, 08:42:38 pm »

I think Abrams is the best candidate to beat Perdue. She’s well-known from her gubernatorial run and turnout will be much higher among Democratic-leaning demographics than in 2018. Also, she could help the Democratic presidential candidate win Georgia in 2020.
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dotard
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« Reply #24 on: January 29, 2019, 12:22:39 pm »

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/david-perdue-urging-trump-continue-wall-funding-push/UfP69GkBJxnoxqpwjHGOXI/

This mofo...
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