GA-SEN 2020 Class II Megathread (Perdue inc.)

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams has very, very little chance to win this race. Results of last year elections showed that Georgia is very inelastic

She brought a perpetual 6-8 point loss for Democrats in this state down to 1 point and this is with heaps of voter suppression at work. Yall just say anything. LOL.

Still of the belief that Abrams should sit this one out in favor of Tomlinson, and work the cycle to elect as many of her allies to the State Senate and House as possible in preparation for the 2022 gubernatorial election.

This. There are quite a few seats in the Metro that could have flipped with a little bit more attention. She should just save her energy. Once this federal lawsuit plays out she will have a hook for her 2022 run against the architect of voter suppression in this state.

What is the general analysis of Stacey's gubernatorial run? The Atlanta suburbs moved in our direction but was that anti-Trump or pro-Stacey? How was Democratic turnout in other areas?

She turned out black voters heavy in the South Metro (Clayton, Henry, Rockdale, Newton), did pretty solid in Bibb, Muscogee, Chatham, and Richmond, got Latinos and Asians out huge in Gwinnett, ran it up with white progressives in Athens, Fulton, and DeKalb, and got some crossover voting from swingy/GOP-lite whites in Fayette, Cobb, Forsyth, and Cherokee. If you look at the results in counties like Oconee, Houston, and Columbia she obviously made inroads in these wealthy, white counties statewide. Will they flip? No. But she did pretty solid for a Democrat.

[Rookie Yinzer]

She's back in Washington. Again. I think she's going to pull the trigger.

https://twitter.com/alexis_levinson/status/1088143873266929665

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1090320213801869313

[Rookie Yinzer]

Stacey Abrams reserved an ad for Fair Fight Action (her group pushing for electoral reform) to air during the Super Bowl. Will air in every GA market.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams verbally acknowledged for the first time that she is considering the Senate seat during a Thank You Tour stop in Gwinnett County tonight.

https://twitter.com/wsbtv/status/1095168617279352833

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1095114834612506624

[Rookie Yinzer]

Anyway, on topic, Abrams will lose spectacularly in 2020 because David Perdue has more of an established connection to suburban Republicans than Brian Kemp did in 2018, and Perdue can count on presidential turnout in a year where Trump will be on the ballot (as opposed to the more D-friendly demographics in 2018)

Uh...no. Trump being on the ballot doesn't help Purdue at all. The bottom is going to continue to fall out across the Metro. Abrams did worse than Hillary in red rural Georgia (where the GOP is maxed out and losing population) and still continued to close the deficit due to huge swings in the Metro. Not to mention voters under the age of 45 (where Abrams absolutely obliterated Kemp) will make up a larger share of the electorate than they did in 2018. This race is a toss up.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Yeah, seems like a lot of Republicans/Atlas posters are in denial about Georgia's rapid trend to the left. I really don’t buy that Perdue will significantly outperform Trump in places like Cobb or Gwinnett, and if he wins it won’t be with more than 51%. This race is a pure Toss-up and certainly more likely to flip than IA.

This. GOP couldn’t break past 52% in a low turnout runoff for Public Service Comissioner. LOL. A high profile, highly nationalized race with a liberal stalwart like Abrams in the race? It’s going down to the last vote.

House Speaker Ralston knows what the deal is:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1095334627487563776

[Rookie Yinzer]

This is so cringe. These people are OBSESSED.

https://twitter.com/NRSC/status/1105142337511006208

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/RElliotWSB/status/1105611043965943808

I'm ready for war. It's time to take Perdue DOWN.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Tomlinson had lunch with Schumer and co today

I'm ready for whoever! I miss canvassing.

[Rookie Yinzer]

This really just took the air out of the balloon for me for 2020. The Dems are not taking back the Senate and everything they will debate and nitpick about in the primary is useless because McConnell will block everything.

[Rookie Yinzer]

This really just took the air out of the balloon for me for 2020. The Dems are not taking back the Senate and everything they will debate and nitpick about in the primary is useless because McConnell will block everything.

Thats odd, I remember scheduling the weekly "#Demsindisarray Panic" for this Friday.....

Can I be upset that my favorite politician isn't running for 24 hours? LOL. Tomlinson is fine but there is a massive gap in "quality" when we start talking about turning out low propensity voters of color. Money that would have been spent here if Abrams ran could be redirected to a NC or an IA. Anyway I hope Tomlinson has a massive field program on the ground a year before voting starts the way Stacey did. She didn't endorse in the Gubernatorial primary but she definitely was on Abrams's side when it came to how this state was going to flip vs the Evans/Roy Barnes/Max Cleland wing of the party.

Who cares? No ratings change. Always has been Likely R, still is, and will remain dem fool's gold.

Classic Atlas #analysis with nothing to substantiate such ridiculous claims.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I said this in the main Georgia thread that I thought Sarah Riggs Amico would join in with Abrams officially out.... she is going to tour GA for the next few weeks. Her initial pitch she clings to her run for Lt. Gov with Abrams.

https://twitter.com/SarahRiggsAmico/status/1123344434924589058

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams had damaged herself significantly first with her conspiratorial assertion that she actually won the election. And then by going so national in liberal circles and shedding any kind of bipartisan image she was trying to sell in '18. People also forget she carried quite a bit of baggage as a candidate I still don't think her financial issues didn't not end up mattering, may have turned off white college educateds.

It was not a conspiracy. She has filed a federal lawsuit that lays out the case that there was rampant voter suppression that affected voters statewide. Enough voters that would have affected the outcome of the election I might add. Like she said in her speech ending her campaign she could have challenged the entire election but did not want an office if she had to scheme her way into it. When she says she won she means because she irrevocably changed Georgia's electorate (which she did).

White college educated voters swung hard to her so the rest of your post is false.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I think we dodged a bullet with Abrams frankly.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1124376293900980230

You assemble a room of 20 black women and they will agree with exactly what she said. Brian Kemp with the help of Republican operatives in local county election offices cheated. I love how uncomfortable Abrams makes people who want to pretend that America is above tinkering with democracy as if black people and Native Americans weren't restricted from voting fifty damn years ago.

Anyway, this isn't Iowa. She doesn't need to tow a line so she doesn't scare away weak-kneed white people who have rose colored glasses on about voter suppression. She has a hefty 40% non-white electorate and progressive whites that she can turn out and a growing share of suburban whites. She has said nothing as incendiary as Donald Trump and everything she says can be backed up with facts.

We need fair elections in Georgia. Change only comes when we have uncomfortable conversations. 

[Rookie Yinzer]

I hope the primary doesn't get too crowded. Tomlinson has been able to scoop up the good people and quite frankly the eventual nom needs to hoard as much cash as possible given this is very likely headed to a runoff

If I were Amico or Ossoff I would just wait until 2022. If Trump is re-elected the dam will burst open in GA in 2022. If Trump loses, GA is inelastic enough to avoid DemPOTUS backlash and they will have Abrams on the ballot with them.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I think we dodged a bullet with Abrams frankly.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1124376293900980230

You assemble a room of 20 black women and they will agree with exactly what she said. Brian Kemp with the help of Republican operatives in local county election offices cheated. I love how uncomfortable Abrams makes people who want to pretend that America is above tinkering with democracy as if black people and Native Americans weren't restricted from voting fifty damn years ago.

Anyway, this isn't Iowa. She doesn't need to tow a line so she doesn't scare away weak-kneed white people who have rose colored glasses on about voter suppression. She has a hefty 40% non-white electorate and progressive whites that she can turn out and a growing share of suburban whites. She has said nothing as incendiary as Donald Trump and everything she says can be backed up with facts.

We need fair elections in Georgia. Change only comes when we have uncomfortable conversations. 

This kind of delusion is unhealthy, there is no proof whatsoever that there were thousands of minority voters who were barred from voting during the 2018 election (in fact that election broke turnout records)

I don't even think Abrams is dumb enough to think she actually won, she is using this whole scheme as a way to raise money from some very gullible people (Just like the Florida recounts last year or Jill Stein's recounts in 2016)

So.... since I actually live here and was working the voter protection hotline on Election Day when power cords for the machines were missing at the blackest precincts in Gwinnett County causing four hour lines where people had to leave to go to work, where precincts in Fulton County where Abrams was running up the score with 95-99 percent of the vote ran out of provisional ballots so everyone who wanted one was told to go home, where Asian and Latino absentee ballots were rejected in Gwinnett County at 10x the rate of everyone else. I will believe MY EXPERIENCE before your narrative when you don’t even live here.

There are 6.4 million people on the rolls. 4.1 million of them voting doesn’t mean there wasn’t voter suppression.

Abrams saying she won is metaphorical. She irrevocably changed Georgia’s electorate. She recognizes Brian Kemp received a sufficient number of votes to become Governor. The election just wasn’t fair. It’s funny watching people who make excuses for every incendiary and heinous thing Trump says all of a sudden want to take everyone else’s words literally.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Georgia senator says he's not worried about his state losing film business over abortion ban


https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/13/us/georgia-senator-abortion-ban-film-business-trnd/index.html

Right. Because the white people from California and the working class black people who benefit from the industry do not vote Republican. The GOP is garbage.

I mentioned in the other thread that I heard Tomlinson today. I definitely considered her the best of the "second tier" but she is really freaking good. A candidate on par with Stacey Abrams. She answered every question directly and didn't try to squirm out of anything. I'm all in.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Georgia senator says he's not worried about his state losing film business over abortion ban


https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/13/us/georgia-senator-abortion-ban-film-business-trnd/index.html

Right. Because the white people from California and the working class black people who benefit from the industry do not vote Republican. The GOP is garbage.

I mentioned in the other thread that I heard Tomlinson today. I definitely considered her the best of the "second tier" but she is really freaking good. A candidate on par with Stacey Abrams. She answered every question directly and didn't try to squirm out of anything. I'm all in.

You think she can organize like Abrams?

Don't know how she'll be received by the population at large but she is definitely emphasizing direct voter contact at the doors like Abrams did vs a barrage of tv ads leading up to the primary like Evans.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Perdue definitely is open season for attack ad fodder. The man is a gaffe master 

Didn't he knock somebody's phone out of their hand or something? And lead a prayer asking for Obama's death and for his children to be homeless? Just ugh at the fact that at least 48 percent of our population will vote for this jackass no matter what.

[Rookie Yinzer]

GA-SEN is a Tossup.

Perdue is a crazy man, like his cousin Gov. Sonny.

Can Tomlinson appeal to WWC in Georgia?

No, and she doesn't need to.

She has to be a Senator for all Georgians, not her base. She should try to bridge the gap. She does come from western Georgia.

The gap can't be bridged. rural whites in Georgia are EXTREMELY Republican. it's not worth even trying to appeal to them.

These people rejected Abrams like 95-5. I never hear these posters ask the GOP to be a Senator for black people and white liberals. She will be a Senator for all Georgians when she votes to expand Medicare and fights for restoring preclearance to the Voting Rights Act. Just because rural whites will refuse to support her because of white resentment politics doesn't mean she isn't serving their interests.

She will cross 50 percent by turning out the base, getting out low propensity voters of color in the Metro and South Suburbs, and continuing to make inroads with educated white women in the North Suburbs. Next.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Sarah Amico pretty much confirmed on her Instagram that she's running.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Georgia is inelastic fool’s gold, take a hint people, we shouldn’t even contest it big time.

I sort of agree (the Democrats lost every row office in a D+9 midterm lmfao), but Atlas is convinced Abrams' performance is the Democratic floor and the state GOP is dead.

MT Treasurer, ON Progressive and RFKFan68 will rage at you, though.

And no, Georgia won't vote to the left of Maine.

Inelastic whites in the midwest shifting to Democrats has nothing to do with the results in a racially polarized state like GA (where the electorate was more GOP than 2016). But keep living in fantasy land.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Georgia is inelastic fool’s gold, take a hint people, we shouldn’t even contest it big time.

I sort of agree (the Democrats lost every row office in a D+9 midterm lmfao), but Atlas is convinced Abrams' performance is the Democratic floor and the state GOP is dead.

MT Treasurer, ON Progressive and RFKFan68 will rage at you, though.

And no, Georgia won't vote to the left of Maine.

Inelastic whites in the midwest shifting to Democrats has nothing to do with the results in a racially polarized state like GA (where the electorate was more GOP than 2016). But keep living in fantasy land.

Dude if Abrams could not win in GA you have me lost, let’s just really hope the dscc agrees with me

I believe the people who are here on the ground over you.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Democrats are not going to win GA in 2020, and it will be bittersweet because obviously I want them to but like it’ll be funny to come back here and all these other threads to laugh just like last time.

It's fine to disagree with others on the Democrats' chances in this race or any other race particularly when there's literally no path for them to be successful. What isn't fine is to concern troll and act as if your opinion is right when there literally is a path for a Democrat to win Georgia if cards are played right.

The point is that it's still early and it's foolish to be calling a race that is likely a tossup off because it's apparently your favorite thing to do.

I wouldn't call Georgia a tossup.

I will never call GA a tossup in non-Pres races because of the run-off. But Tomlinson can win and GA-PRES 2020 is a tossup (no one has to win 50 percent to get the electoral votes).