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| | |-+  Has Kansas actually moved left, or was it just Brownback blowback?
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Author Topic: Has Kansas actually moved left, or was it just Brownback blowback?  (Read 2420 times)
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CrabCake
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« on: January 12, 2019, 02:02:30 pm »

Dems did very well in the latter half of Brownback's reign at all levels, but was this just an ephemeral thing that will fade as his disastrous rule fades into memory?
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Chairman YE
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« Reply #1 on: January 12, 2019, 02:06:53 pm »

It is actually trending D IMO. Considering it has the most college educated voters of any Trump state, this shouldn’t be a surprise.
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« Reply #2 on: January 12, 2019, 04:28:27 pm »

Kansas isn't averse to electing Democratic Governors.

Another thing to keep in mind is Kansas may be one of the most Republican states, but KS GOP is in large part more moderate than their counterparts in, let's say, Wyoming or other western states. There's even a saying Kansas is a three party state: conservative Republicans, moderate Republicans and Democrats.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2019, 04:36:18 pm by Ready for Warren »Logged
Neoliberalbusters
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« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2019, 06:44:57 pm »

Yes, but only because the Johnson/Shawnee/Riley County RINO's have switched to the Democrats.
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« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2019, 08:26:16 pm »

I'll keep observing the trends, but based on what I see right now, I can say this:

If Republicans continue going down a Trumpian/nationalist path, Kansas will eventually turn purple and then blue.

If Republicans decide to renounce their Trumpian/nationalist wing, they can keep KS as a lock in their column.
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« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2019, 08:30:46 pm »

Yes, slightly left, because the state is much more suburban than most people realized and the rural vote was already very Republican, but not enough to make the state competitive in the long term. Brownback just made the 2014 elections closer than the should've been.
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Governor Peanut
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« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2019, 04:23:30 pm »

It is actually trending D IMO. Considering it has the most college educated voters of any Trump state, this shouldn’t be a surprise.

I'll keep observing the trends, but based on what I see right now, I can say this:

If Republicans continue going down a Trumpian/nationalist path, Kansas will eventually turn purple and then blue.

If Republicans decide to renounce their Trumpian/nationalist wing, they can keep KS as a lock in their column.
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« Reply #7 on: January 13, 2019, 08:53:29 pm »

It is actually trending D IMO. Considering it has the most college educated voters of any Trump state, this shouldn’t be a surprise.

I'll keep observing the trends, but based on what I see right now, I can say this:

If Republicans continue going down a Trumpian/nationalist path, Kansas will eventually turn purple and then blue.

If Republicans decide to renounce their Trumpian/nationalist wing, they can keep KS as a lock in their column.
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« Reply #8 on: January 13, 2019, 09:32:25 pm »

Trump won Kansas 56-36. Over 20 points. Yes, the state is trending D  because of suburban Kansas City and the I 70 corridor through Manhattan, Lawrence, and Topeka. No, j don't expect the state to be remotely competitive in 2020. If the 2012-16 trend continues, Trump wins the state +18. One governor race doesn't change things.
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« Reply #9 on: January 14, 2019, 12:52:38 am »

Yes, but only because the Johnson/Shawnee/Riley County RINO's have switched to the Democrats.
That is how states move left, you know.
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Wazza
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« Reply #10 on: January 14, 2019, 12:54:31 am »

I think it is largely due to bitterness over Sam Brownback. Nebraska is extremely similar to Kansas in pretty much every way, in terms of College Education rates, urbanisation rates/urban population, church attendance, historical voting patterns, demographic shifts, etc. yet Nebraska unlike its southern neighbour trended R in 2016. The most obvious divergent factor between the two is that Kansas had an extremely unpopular Republican governor whilst Nebraska did not.
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« Reply #11 on: January 16, 2019, 01:39:25 pm »

Yes, slightly left, because the state is much more suburban than most people realized and the rural vote was already very Republican, but not enough to make the state competitive in the long term. Brownback just made the 2014 elections closer than the should've been.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #12 on: January 19, 2019, 01:00:42 pm »

It's actually moving left.  Wouldn't be surprised at all if the Dem nominee wins it in 2028 or so.

Frankly, Dems will need to compete in KS ASAP for the sake of the Senate.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2019, 01:04:10 pm by Skill and Chance »Logged
Del Tachi
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« Reply #13 on: January 19, 2019, 02:37:40 pm »

Yes, slightly left, because the state is much more suburban than most people realized and the rural vote was already very Republican, but not enough to make the state competitive in the long term. Brownback just made the 2014 elections closer than the should've been.
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« Reply #14 on: January 19, 2019, 03:01:59 pm »

Jesus Christ, the delusion in this thread is something. LA trended and swung left in 2012 and elected a Democratic Governor in 2015. Are we to believe that will become a blue state as well? Lol. Vermont trended hard right in 2016 and elected a Republican Governor so i guess that’s going back to its RINO roots
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olowakandi
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« Reply #15 on: January 20, 2019, 10:23:47 am »

If Barry Grissom gets into race, KS senate will be competitive
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« Reply #16 on: January 20, 2019, 01:49:20 pm »

brownback blowback the results of confirm that.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #17 on: January 21, 2019, 12:02:02 am »

I dunno, the shift in Johnson county was pretty deep down the ballot and pretty consistent with a shift in other similar demographics.  And JoCo made up 25% of the vote in the midterms.  Much probably depends on who the Rs keep nominating for office.
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« Reply #18 on: February 01, 2019, 01:00:00 pm »

KS is slowly but surely moving left. It just doesn't have a big enough metro like a GA or TX to be moving it along fast enough. I think it will be competitive by 2030 or so.
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PR
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« Reply #19 on: February 02, 2019, 05:09:10 pm »

Both/and, I think.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #20 on: February 02, 2019, 05:27:31 pm »

Jesus Christ, the delusion in this thread is something. LA trended and swung left in 2012 and elected a Democratic Governor in 2015. Are we to believe that will become a blue state as well? Lol. Vermont trended hard right in 2016 and elected a Republican Governor so i guess that’s going back to its RINO roots

Delusion is everywhere on Atlas.
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Lok
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« Reply #21 on: February 02, 2019, 06:34:59 pm »

I mean, it's clearly on a slight D trend, 2016 and 2018 were not fluke trends, as it has trended D since 2000, with only 2004 interrupting it.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #22 on: February 03, 2019, 07:25:07 am »

Jesus Christ, the delusion in this thread is something. LA trended and swung left in 2012 and elected a Democratic Governor in 2015. Are we to believe that will become a blue state as well? Lol. Vermont trended hard right in 2016 and elected a Republican Governor so i guess that’s going back to its RINO roots

Delusion is everywhere on Atlas.

Well tbf to OP, the question was just if Kansas moved left. R+20 to R+15 still counts as moving left.

My guess is that it's a bit of both. Kansas is surprisingly suburban as others have said, so it's unsurprising that we are seeing a smaller version of the leftward trend in major metros. That said, the Denocrats had almost perfect timing in 2018. They got to follow an unpopular GOP governor in a very Dem friendly national environment. I expect to see a decent sized snap back to the right over the next several years as they won't have that perfect combination again anytime soon.
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« Reply #23 on: February 03, 2019, 07:25:06 pm »

Trump only has a +2 approval rating in Kansas. I would say that it is actually moving left, which is not particularly surprising, given that it is the second highest Trump state for rates of college education.
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Esteemed Speaker Jimmy7812
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« Reply #24 on: February 03, 2019, 07:58:41 pm »

I mean, it's clearly on a slight D trend, 2016 and 2018 were not fluke trends, as it has trended D since 2000, with only 2004 interrupting it.
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