Who's more likely to get reelected in 2020, Will Hurd or Anthony Brindisi?

[wesmoorenerd]

One of the most vulnerable Republicans in 2020 vs one of the most vulnerable Democrats.

[Roll Roons]

Right now probably Hurd. Yes, all of his races have been close, but he's proven himself to be talented by managing to survive presidential turnout and Beto's coattails, even as the much more experienced Culberson and Sessions went down this year. His reelection is still far from assured.

[wesmoorenerd]

Right now probably Hurd. Yes, all of his races have been close, but he's proven himself to be talented by managing to survive presidential turnout and Beto's coattails, even as the much more experienced Culberson and Sessions went down this year. His reelection is still far from assured.

I agree Brindisi's probably more vulnerable, but I'm not sure characterizing Culberson and Sessions as "experienced" is particularly accurate. Neither faced a competitive election in pretty much their whole careers. Sessions was unopposed in 2016, for Christ's sake!

[lfromnj]

Right now probably Hurd. Yes, all of his races have been close, but he's proven himself to be talented by managing to survive presidential turnout and Beto's coattails, even as the much more experienced Culberson and Sessions went down this year. His reelection is still far from assured.

I agree Brindisi's probably more vulnerable, but I'm not sure characterizing Culberson and Sessions as "experienced" is particularly accurate. Neither faced a competitive election in pretty much their whole careers. Sessions was unopposed in 2016, for Christ's sake!

Culberson never did but I learned sessions had a semi competetive 04 race against a rural democrat. He also ran the nrcc in 2010 so had some idea.

[TheSaint250]

I don't know much about Brindisi or NY-22 except that it's a normally Republican-leaning area, but I voted for Hurd. O'Rourke driving out voters certainly had a part in keeping Hurd's margin of victory very narrow, but the former's victory in the district despite the latter's re-election shows that Hurd still has crossover appeal. At this point in time, I can't see Trump in Texas in 2020 winning by as little as Cruz did, so I would assume that Hurd holds on. Yes, Trump will likely still lose TX-23, but if Hurd remains non-controversial and has a bipartisan, moderate appeal, he will hold on.

[lfromnj]

I don't know much about Brindisi or NY-22 except that it's a normally Republican-leaning area, but I voted for Hurd. O'Rourke driving out voters certainly had a part in keeping Hurd's margin of victory very narrow, but the former's victory in the district despite the latter's re-election shows that Hurd still has crossover appeal. At this point in time, I can't see Trump in Texas in 2020 winning by as little as Cruz did, so I would assume that Hurd holds on. Yes, Trump will likely still lose TX-23, but if Hurd remains non-controversial and has a bipartisan, moderate appeal, he will hold on.

I think O rourke won the Bexar county part but did really bad in the rest of the district where Hispanic turnout was low. Hillary won the district by 3 but lost Bexar by 2 . Beto must have won the Bexar by like 8 points but maybe even lost the rest of the district. Beto only won the district by 5 compared to the double digit win of the 32nd despite the PVI of the 23rd being only R+2.

[😥]

Hurd

[AudmanOut]

Brindisi.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hurd- About 30% chance. Yes he outran Beto but OJ was triaged and he still barely scraped by.
Brindisi- About 5 % chance, he's screwed. Tenney was a tea partier, which this district doesn't seem to care for. A more trumpish republican should easily win in 2020, especially with Trump himself on the ballot

[lfromnj]

Hurd- About 30% chance. Yes he outran Beto but OJ was triaged and he still barely scraped by.
Brindisi- About 5 % chance, he's screwed. Tenney was a tea partier, which this district doesn't seem to care for. A more trumpish republican should easily win in 2020, especially with Trump himself on the ballot

Tbh Gina Ortiz jones margin was impressive relative to Beto considering she was triaged,hurd was actually the only gop rep in texas who was moderate at all and he wasn't a lazy ass who knew how to campaign. If Bustos doesn't try to recruit her it would be weird. Jones deserves a rematch.

[Young Conservative]

History says Hurd, since he's he longer term incumbent with a history of winning in competitive elections and presidential years. Plus, 2020 is mostly defense in the House for Democrats.

[136or142]

History says Hurd, since he's he longer term incumbent with a history of winning in competitive elections and presidential years. Plus, 2020 is mostly defense in the House for Democrats.

Not likely with Trump still on the ballot.

[Xing]

In a neutral year or better for Republicans, probably Hurd, but if it's a good year for Democrats, Brindisi.

[IceSpear]

So basically this is asking "Do you think 2020 will be another Democratic wave?" If yes, then Brindisi. If no, then Hurd.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Brindisi would lose even in a D wave year, so Hurd

[Young Conservative]

History says Hurd, since he's he longer term incumbent with a history of winning in competitive elections and presidential years. Plus, 2020 is mostly defense in the House for Democrats.

Not likely with Trump still on the ballot.

He's won with Trump on the ballot before...also, Trump was basically on the ballot in 2018

[Ye We Can]

Frankly, I thought Brindisi would win by way more than he did. Tenney was such a terrible fit for that district and the fact that it was that close tells me any Trump type R would win there. Is that Nicholas Wan guy gonna run again?

[lfromnj]

Frankly, I thought Brindisi would win by way more than he did. Tenney was such a terrible fit for that district and the fact that it was that close tells me any Trump type R would win there. Is that Nicholas Wan guy gonna run again?

I thought he would lose considering it was a trump plus 16 district thats trending r

[Zaybay]

Frankly, I thought Brindisi would win by way more than he did. Tenney was such a terrible fit for that district and the fact that it was that close tells me any Trump type R would win there. Is that Nicholas Wan guy gonna run again?

I thought he would lose considering it was a trump plus 16 district thats trending r

You were missing one key stat. Teeney's popularity. She was rather hated in the district, so it makes total sense why this seat flipped. Popularity, or at least relative popularity, is the best factor to tell who will win a race.

[beesley]

Will Hurd is my instinct, but there's no way to really tell at this stage.