All of them except McSally, Nelson, Rosendale, O'Rourke, and Morrisey.
Voted this list except not O'Rourke. I never thought he had a chance, even if he did run a flawless campaign.
Pretty much this. I always believed that Texas was Lean Republican, at the minimum. And I always expected O'Rourke to lose, though I thought it would be by a margin of ~5-6 points rather than the 3 point margin that it ended up being. McSally probably could have beaten Sinema if she had run like she had when she was elected to the House in 2014 and 2016: as a moderate or establishment Republican, in the mold of John McCain. She would have also won if Sinema had somehow not obtained the Democratic nomination, and someone weaker had been nominated.
Nelson could have won if he had taken Rick Scott seriously from the start and had run a more vigorous campaign. He relied too much on Gillum, believing that he would turnout the base, and that it would be enough to get him across the finish line. That, along with Scott's decent approval ratings (which, I believe, were higher than Nelson's by Election Day), proved to be his undoing. Rosendale might have won if more resources had been invested into his race. However, he let Tester define him early, and he did not run an effective advertising campaign or do well in the debates. Tester also focused in on the Democratic base, while doing enough to win over swing voters. He pulled off a strategy that Donnelly, Heitkamp, and McCaskill failed to replicate.
Finally, I honestly believe that Manchin was saved by the Kavanaugh vote. He almost certainly would have lost if he had voted against Kavanaugh. Another factor that saved him was Morrisey's horrendous approval ratings, which were -20 on Election Day. Manchin's approvals were -1 or even, so voters basically chose the lesser of two evils. If Morrisey had been a better and more competent candidate, or if Jenkins had won the nomination, West Virginia too, probably would have flipped.
All of the other electoral losers were doomed. Heller could not survive Nevada's Democratic lean. James, although he did impressively well for a Republican in Michigan, likewise could not overcome Stabenow's incumbency status and the political environment. Bredesen never had a chance in so heavily Republican a state as Tennessee, and the Kavanaugh debacle sealed his fate, by rallying Republican voters behind Blackburn. The first factor was true for Espy in Mississippi, and the reverse was true for Hugin in New Jersey (running in a heavily Democratic state).
Vukmir was a weak candidate and Baldwin had decent approval ratings; moreover, she was disadvantaged by the environment. The same was true for Barletta. Renacci was a uniquely weak candidate, and Brown was a very strong incumbent. And Feinstein was too entrenched in California for DeLeon to win. Finally, the margins of defeat for Donnelly and McCaskill make it clear that they never stood a chance. They also hurt themselves by not mobilizing the base, and by attempting to win over voters who they stood no chance of carrying. Heitkamp was the most doomed, and never had a realistic chance.
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