Greece 2019 elections

[jaichind]

In theory elections will be Oct 2019.  But it seems that ANEL has withdrawn support to the  Tsipras government over the Republic of Northern Macedonia name issue.  Now there will be a calls confidence vote and if  Tsipras then most likely there will be early elections.

[mileslunn]

What are the chances of New Democracy getting a majority as I know Greece uses re-enforced proportionality or will it more likely just be a plurality and who would they work with?

[DC Al Fine]

Anyone want to do a recap of what's going on with the major parties?

[MaxQue]

What are the chances of New Democracy getting a majority as I know Greece uses re-enforced proportionality or will it more likely just be a plurality and who would they work with?

In theory, Greece has a 50 seat lead bonus and 250 proportionnal seats. In theory, you need 40% for a majority. In practice, parties under 3% are ignored, so the percentage needed for a majority is lowered. For example, the percentage needed for majority last time was 37.44%.

In polls, ND is between 32 and 38%.
For the last 6 polls:
Pulse: ND is at 38%, majority at 34.8%
ALCO: ND is at 32.8%, majority is at 33.6%
MRB: ND is at 37.1%, majority at 35.2%
Kapa: ND is at 31.7%, majority at 33%
Palmos: ND is at 34%, majority at 34.6%
Metron: ND is at 37.8%, majority is at 34%

[jaichind]

https://www.thenationalherald.com/226687/without-anel-tsipras-has-votes-to-rule-pass-fyrom-deal/

It seems a bloc of ANEL MPs will blot from ANEL leader Kammenos and Tsipras.  I suspect all this is a Tsipras-Kammenos political theater.  If Kammenos led ANEL is seen as backing the North Macedonia deal then ANEL will clearly lose votes to ND in the Oct election.  This way in October ANEL can still keep its core vote yet Tsipras government survives its full term and get its  North Macedonia  name deal.  Not sure it will work out that well though as what is meant to be fake might become reality.