The Presidential Republic - A Chilean Election Series (Master Thread)

[Lumine]

President Arturo Alessandri has restored democracy in Chile by the end of the 1930's,
but how will things develop under his successors?

Presidents of Chile:

Arturo Alessandri Palma (2nd) (PL): December 1932 - December 1938
Gustavo Ross Santa María (PL): December 1938 - December 1944
Óscar Schnake Vergara (PS): December 1944 - November 1947
Juan Bautista Rossetti (PS): November 1947 - April 1948
Fernando Alessandri Rodríguez (PL): April 1948 - Present

Congressional Control:

1937-1941 Congress:

PL + PCon Government Minority (1937 - 1939)
PL + PCon + PA  Government Minority (1939 - 1941)

1941-1945 Congress:

PL + PCon + PA  Government Minority (1941 - 1944)
PS + PR + PD  Government Minority (1944 - 1945)

1945-1949 Congress:

PS + PR + PD Government Majority (1945 - 1948)
PL + PCA Government Minority (1948 - 1949)

1949-1953 Congress:

PL + PCA + PR Government Minority (1949 - 1951)
PL + PCA Government Minority (1951 - 1953)
PL + PCA + PF Government Minority (1953 - 1954)

Intro:

After a break of a few months on Election Series, I've decided to start one again and move to a familiar ground. Unlike my Spanish and British Series - which tend to extend for a while - I haven't been able to get my two Chilean Election Series (1970 and 1989) to last long, mostly because of research problems. Being better prepared now, I've decided to explore Chilean politics from the end of the 1930's - when democracy was restored - and see just how far we can go in charting the course of the struggles of a curious Latin American nation. As a result, we will simulate Presidential and Congressional Elections, Referendums and crucial moments such as coup attempts or other relevant moment.

These are our Election Rules:

1.- Electoral System: In 1938 Chile is a Presidential Republic in which the President holds a lot of power, elected for a six-year term (cannot run for re-election until after another term has passed) on a single round election, Congress choosing the President from the top-two candidates if no one recieves more than 50% of the vote. An unwritten rule has Congress award the Presidency to whoever came in first regardless of the size of plurality, a "gentleman's agreement" which may very well be tested in the future. Congressional Elections every four years elect the entire Chamber of Deputies (currently at 146 members) and half the Senate (45 members) under a d'Hondt proportional system.

2.- Government Performance Swing: We will maintain the swing to account for the electoral bonuses or maluses of an unpopular or popular government, accounting for the six dice roll I use for every government. Depending on the sum of the dice:

6-18: Considered an "unpopular" government, delivering an anti-government swing of 3% on Presidential and Parliamentary Elections.
19-26: Considered a "standard" government, giving no penalty to the government.
27-36: Considered a "popular" government, giving a 3% swing to the government (proportionally deducted from each party or candidate).

3.- Electoral Fatigue Every party which wins more than two consecutive Presidential elections will start adding "electoral fatigue" to its results, starting at the next election after their second victory with a swing of 1% to the main Opposition candidate, and adding an extra 1% per additional victory.

Congressional Electoral Results by Party:

Liberal Party (PL)
1941: 15.9%
1945: 12.0%
1949: 19.7%
1953: 22.3%

Conservative (Agrarian) Party (PCon/PCA)
1941: 15.9%
1945: 9.6%
1949: 12.2%
1953: 11.6%

Radical Party (PR)
1941: 9.5%
1945: 9.6%
1949: 12.2%
1953: 10.0%

Socialist Party (PS)
1941: 25.6%
1945: 38.8%
1949: 2.2%
1953: 2.9%

Communist Party (PCCh)
1941: 12.7%
1945: 9.6%
1949: 22.2%
1953: 6.4%

Popular Socialist Party (PSP)
1945: 7.1%
1949: 19.7%
1953: 25.9%

Democratic Labor Party (PDL)
1949: 4.7%
1953: 4.5%

Radical Democratic Party (PRD)
1949: 2.2%
1953: 2.9%

Women's Party (PF)
1953: 6.4%

Social Christian Party (PSC)
1953: 2.9%

Authentic Socialist Party (PSA)
1953: 2.9%

National Socialist Movement (MNS) / National Vanguard (VN)
1941: 6.3% (MNS)
1945: 2.2% (VN)
Party Dissolves

Democratic Party (PD)
1941: 6.3%
1945: 2.2%
Fusion with UNI

National Ibañist Union (UNI)
1941: 3.0%
1945: 4.7%
Fusion with PD

Agrarian Party
1941: 3.0%
1945: 2.2%
Fusion with PCon

[Lumine]

1938 Presidential Election

December 1938 - Alessandri and Ross celebrate an unprecedented triumph for the center-right

Presidential Vote:

Gustavo Ross Santa Maria: 58.6%
Pedro Aguirre Cerda: 24.1%
Carlos Ibañez del Campo: 17.2%

Whilst many in La Moneda[1] believed victory to be likely in the coming election due to the accomplishments of the Government - which they believed would outweigh the social backlash -, the campaign entered into full swing around mid-year, with four months to go. All of the three candidates who contested the election had both strengths and challenges of their own to overcome: Ross had the entire government machine behind him, but remained abrasive when campaigning and was extremely divisive when it came to the Liberal and the Conservative youth (the latter of which threatened to bolt); Aguirre Cerda was charismatic and had popular appeal, yet had to move around plenty of rivals within the Radicals and was threatened by Ibañez's campaign; and Ibañez, who had the advantage of energy, appeal across the board and the enthusiasm of the Nacistas was nonetheless dragged down by the memory of his repressive government.

Indeed the months of June to August were spent by all three candidates trying both to expand their bases of support while addressing the internal issues that plagued them. Against expectations it was Ross who proved the more successful on the task after being swayed by Alessandri and other conciliatory members of the right [2] to court the disaffected elements within the right, which the former Minister did by promising limited social action during a future administration and constantly bringing up the dangers of an Ibañez or Popular-Front government. Ibañez also experienced some success, exploiting his new left-wing appeal to essentially have most of the Socialists slowly defect to his candidacy. It was Aguirre Cerda who was to decisively stumble, a disastrous tour of the South heavily compromising his health (and thus ability to campaign) as the Popular-Front began to fall apart in light of Ibañez's unmatched promises and the harsh infighting within the Radicals jockeying for the future cabinet-to-be.

The decisive factors that changed the course of the election could be placed around the first week of September, General Ibañez and his supporters holding a massive Victory March across the capital of Santiago and having thousands of Ibañistas march across the streets demanding the return of the General to power. Such a massive demonstration of popular appeal was to heavily undercut Aguirre Cerda's argument that the Popular Front was the best placed candidacy to bring down the right, and attempts to turn into the left only succeeded in making Ross look more moderate by comparison. And when a ludicrous coup attempt by overeager members of the MNS youth was defused [3] Ibañez faced new questions about his democratic credentials as well, hampering any possible growth.

By October it became clear that Ross and the government held the advantage, successfully promoting both the economic success as well as being the "safe" alternative for order against the disorganized Popular Front and the dangerous General Ibañez, and this was reflected once the results came in. Gustavo Ross had been elected President with an enormous mandate that surpassed Alessandri's own 55% of the vote during the 1932 Election. The Popular Front collapsed amidst much recrimination as Aguirre Cerda failed to break 25% - thus ending his political career -, and while General Ibañez underperformed thanks to the fear and backlash caused by the support of the Chilean nazis, he still achieved a respectable 17% of the vote which made his continued participation in politics a safe bet.

The Chilean center-right had triumphed and extended its mandate for six years. Would Ross prove to be a successful President?
________________________________________

[1] The Presidential Palace.
[2] In OTL Ross took a more hardline attitude, essentially driving the Conservative Youth away from the right.
[3] In OTL a group of young Nacistas (college students) undertook a ridiculous coup attempt after the Victory March, which an infuriated President Alessandri brutally put down as most of the students were gunned down by the Army and the Police. The subsequent backlash for the harsh repression of the coup was to contribute to the left-wing victory that took place in our world.
 

[Lumine]

1941 Congressional Elections

March 1941 - The Socialists stun La Moneda and become the main opposition

Popular Vote:

PS: 25.6% (+14.4)
PL: 15.9% (-4.8 )
PCon: 15.9% (-5.4)
PCCh: 12.7% (+8.5)
PR: 9.5% (-9.2)
PD: 6.3 (-3.1)
MNS: 6.3 (+2.8 )
PA: 3.0 (+0.6)
UNI: 3.0 (+3.0)
OTH: 1.8% (-6.9)
Government: 34.8% (-9.6)

Deputies:

PS: 43 (+24)
PL: 27 (-8 )
PCon: 27 (-8 )
PCCh: 15 (+9)
PR: 11 (-18 )
PD: 8 (-4)
MNS: 7 (+4)
PA: 6 (+4)
UNI: 3 (+3)
OTH: 0
Government: 60 (-12), 14 short of a majority

Senate:

PL: 10 (-2)
PCon: 10 (-2)
PS: 9 (+5)
PR: 9 (-2)
PCCh: 4 (+3)
PD: 2 (-3)
PA: 1 (+1)
Government: 21 (-3), 2 short of a majority

Even though at the onset of 1941 there were signs of trouble in the air - particularly due to sluggish growth and foreign policy blunders - it was generally believed by President Ross and his inner circle at La Moneda that the Government would be able to seize on its strong performance of 1937 and 1938 and gain an outright parliamentary majority, a result that would enable Ross to pursue even bolder and transformative reforms. It was perhaps of that spirit that the President and his allies were perceived to be heavily overconfident at the start of the campaign, Ross himself leaving behind a significant part of the more conciliatory behavior forced on him to prevent a split within the right before the last Presidential Election.

Campaigning on the need to stay the course under the government's motto of "Order and Work", Liberals, Conservatives and Agrarian did their best to battle the campaign even if the President was proving more unpopular than expected among many in the electorate, and particularly after the Socialist Party proved unexpectedly successful in appealing to peasant or rural voters who had previously been the electoral property of the right. And this in a context in which turnout and electoral participation, while slow, was growing due to younger voters beginning to vote. It was not, however, that the Government was singularly uninspiring during the course of the campaign, and their woes became nothing next to the sheer infighting inside a Radical Party all too fixated on the 1944 Election due to several would-be candidates knifing each other ahead of schedule.

Opposed to that were the successful efforts of political extremes such as the Nazis (MNS) and the Communists (PCCh), who managed to mobilize their respective bases and expand into new working and middle class voters receptive to their message just as General Ibañez's supporters were hampered by the General's lack of clarity - a factor on his defeat for a Senate seat - and centrist forces such as the Democratic Party also found it hard to firmly establish their platform towards the electorate. But by far the most effective effort was undertaken by the Socialist Party, a coalition of younger men (Óscar Schnake, Raúl Ampuero, Bernardo Ibañez, Salvador Allende and others) staging a successful campaign with appeal to the masses which turned the Socialist Party into the largest party in Chile and the leading voice of the opposition to Ross, their representation duplicated.

Both the Government and the Radical Party - previously the main opposition party - experienced a heavy defeat against their initial expectations, and one that dramatically shifted the projections for the still distant 1944 Presidential Election. The Radical Party itself lost half their vote and deputies, their presidential hopes being set back into a long shot. And President Ross found himself not only losing significant ground in the Chamber of Deputies - placing him at the mercy of Radicals and Democrats - but losing his bare majority in the Senate as well.

Three and a half years until the Presidential Election, the Chilean center-right was in a difficult spot.

[Lumine]

Gustavo Ross Santa María

Liberal Party, 1938-1944

"Monsieur Gustave" fights for modernization and order,
but struggles against a slow economy and World War II

In many ways the rise of Gustavo Ross was an unlikely one. A successful businessman who had proved unsuccessful in party politics, his effective - and bold - economic stewardship under Alessandri had turned him into the "Wizard of Finances", and his tough, decisive and abrasive character had turned either into the savior of constitutional order to his supporters, or an authoritarian aristocrat to those in the opposition. It was indeed because of his aristocratic manners and slight French accent that the magazine Topaze (increasingly seen as the voice of political satire) nicknamed him "Monsieur Gustave", a monicker which stuck during an administration which, while generally seen as moderately successful, was nonetheless deeply polarizing.

Perhaps the best example of this could be provided by the deadly 1939 Chillán Earthquake, which took place only a month after Ross took office and cost the lives of almost 30,000 Chileans: whereas Ross's technocratic mindset and work capacity allowed him to lead a competent response and a successful recovery despite the subsequent hit to the economy, his personal leadership during the crisis was seen as lacking in tact. Having experienced such success as Finance Minister, it was a significant factor of embarrassment to the Government that the combination of the Earthquake, Washington's attitude towards WW2 and international pressure over debt prevented the economy from experienced major growth.

Foreign affairs was by far the weakest area for Ross, World War II creating plenty of strife with Washington once Ross made it clear Chile - like Argentina - was to remain neutral instead of being pushed into the conflict. The result of it was increased and at times severe pressure from the United States from 1942 to early 1944, the combination of which undercut Ross's efforts elsewhere and made him a target of criticism for pro-Allied or pro-Soviet elements. On the other hand, it was at domestic policy and at the law and order front that the President excelled, and even when faced with a significant opposition majority in Congress after 1941 Ross managed to enact educational reform - expanding quality -, new government agencies to promote development and exports, promotion of European immigration - particularly through war refugees - and a few key infrastructure projects.

Taking a constantly hostile stand against the PCCh and the MNS as "enemies of democracy", Ross's tough approach managed to defuse a series of planned coups by pro-Nazi junior officers within the Army as well as disrupt Communists attempts at infiltration and reestablish a sense of order. Alas, the spearhead of said approach - the Democracy and State Security Law - went down in flames in early 1943 after the social-christian wing of the Conservatives and the new Popular Socialist rebels joined forces to defeat the bill, denying Ross his intention to get rid of both parties. As 1944 passed by and the next campaign for the Presidency started President Ross felt reasonably satisfied despite the many setbacks, and set on the job on ensuring that the center-right could win a third-term against the odds.

[Lumine]

1944 Presidential Election

October 1944 - Óscar Schnake becomes Chile's first Socialist President

Presidential Vote:

Óscar Schnake: 33.3%
Eduardo Cruz-Coke: 30.6%
Elías Lafertte: 25.0%
Jorge González von Marees: 11.1%

Six years after the second landslide in a row - first Alessandri, then Ross - the 1944 Presidential contest turned to be far more competitive than what many expected, even to the point of leading the nation into an enormously tense process in which Chilean democracy itself was said (accuratedly or not) to be at risk.

Defeated at the 1941 Congressional elections and despite the failure to have the Nazi and Communist parties banned there remained significant hope at La Moneda that a third term for the center-right could be won on account of President Ross's partial accomplishments and the sheer division of the opposition, but what should have been an orderly process to select a candidate soon turned into strife. Whereas the Conservatives had fell in love with Dr. Cruz-Coke and the potential to have their first president in over one hundred years, the Liberal Party itself was notoriously skeptical of the candidate and his religious fervor, and while Cruz-Coke was nominated with President Ross's support a significant Liberal group stayed on the sidelines or refused to endorse him.

As the right was going through its own drama, so was the center and center-left forces that had united to capture the Presidency. With Socialists, Radicals and Democrats having won 42% of the vote in 1941 they felt confident in victory after nominating Schnake and developing a government program despite notorious infighting and division within the three parties after the failed Democracy and State Security Law (which Schnake had notoriously endorsed), and more importantly, the separation of the Popular Socialist in a split which soon became stronger than what Schnake and the PS leadership had envisioned. Even if the militant anti-communism of Schnake made it possible for the coalition to make a strong play towards the center and towards disaffected Liberals, it had the exact opposite effect for many voters on the left.

Enter von Marees and Lafertte. Whereas a bombastic von Marees and his National-Socialist cadres took to the street rallying against both Cruz-Coke and Schnake and found enormous success on a populist-nationalist campaign - which catapulted VN into an increasingly stronger force even as the Axis Powers collapsed -, Lafertte and his coalition of Communists, Popular-Socialists and independent leftist forces proved far more organized and skilled than Schnake could have believed. Backed with the powerful oratory of the popular poet and deputy Pablo Neruda and the constant support of the increasingly coordinated trade unions Lafertte led a passionate campaign across the mines, fields and industries, and when a couple of months before the election the Communists won a by-election for a deputy seat all hell broke loose.

Soon the possibility of Senator Lafertte actually reaching first place became realistic, starting an open panic in the Cruz-Coke (in free fall) and Schnake (stagnant) campaigns. Both candidates resolved to fight back with support of most of the press, denouncing a possible Lafertte victory as the "end of democracy" and asserting that Chile was in the risk of falling to totalitarian rule. Dr. Cruz-Coke in particular managed to rebound in the final days to a close second place, but still behind the already low result of the center-right in 1941. With von Marees and Lafertte on 11% and 25% (and a combined 36% for both political extremes), it was Schnake who managed to claw ahead in an extremely close contest.

Óscar Schnake was now Chile's first Socialist President.

[Lumine]

1945 Congressional Elections

March 1945 - Schnake's Socialist win a major landslide and crush the political extremes

Popular Vote:

PS: 38.8% (+13.2)
PL: 12.0% (-3.9)
PCon: 9.6% (-6.3)
PR: 9.6% (+0.1)
PCCh: 9.6% (-3.1)
PSP: 7.1% (+7.1)
UNI: 4.7% (+1.7)
PA: 2.2 (-0.8 )
PD: 2.2 (-4.1)
VN: 2.2 (-4.1 )
OTH: 2.0% (+0.2)
Government: 50.6% (+9.2)

Deputies:

PS: 69 (+26)
PL: 20 (-7)
PCon: 15 (-12)
PR: 13 (+2)
PCCh: 11 (-4)
PSP: 8 (+8 )
UNI: 5 (+2)
PA: 4 (-2)
PD: 1 (-7)
VN: 1 (-6)
OTH: 0
Government: 83 (-21), majority of 19

Senate:

PS: 18 (+9)
PL: 8 (-2)
PCon: 7 (-3)
PR: 7 (-2)
PCCh: 4 (=)
PA: 1 (=)
Government: 25 (+5), majority of 5

Fresh from a narrow presidential victory and holding little more than a third of Congress - thus allowing him to uphold a veto - President Schnake took office less than 100 days before the next scheduled Congressional Election and was thus met with the challenge of transforming his 33% of the vote into a Congressional majority, all while facing the enormous dilemma of well over a third of the country having voted for the Communists or National Vanguard back in October. That President Schnake not only succeed in engineering a triumph, but also managed to knock out most political parties into historically terrible results can be considered one of the biggest political triumphs in Chilean political history, and one filled with uncertainty until the very end.

Schnake started off a dynamic administration from day one, seeking to display a far more open and charming attitude towards the press than the dour Gustavo Ross and taking every possible opportunity for positive coverage that appeared to be possible. Determined to see his main foreign policy pledge through Schnake pressured, charmed and/or cajoled the Senate into declaring war on the Axis Powers on January 1945 - thanks to the Communist vote -, placing Chile among the Allies on the final months of the war and thus placing Schnake high among the Latin American allies of the Roosevelt Administration. Combining this with a brief law to tighten control of the electoral process handing it over to the military - who would guarantee an orderly election day and would disrupt attempts at fraud, blatant during those years - Schnake successfully demonstrated with authority, and then moved to vanquish his enemies.

Backed by the invaluable help of men like the steely and wise Marmaduque Grove - PS Chairman - and Arturo Olavarria - Minister of Justice and PR electoral strategist - Schnake moved against the National Vanguard first by having the histrionic, bombastic Führer von Marees temporarily declared insane and committed to a mental institution. Although von Marees would eventually be released by the Supreme Court after the election, the dramatic move humiliated the head of Chilean Nazism and sent the movement in collapse just as Nazi Germany fell apart. It was the turn of Chilean Communism afterwards, Schnake and Olavarria having prominent PCCh officers arrested after evidence was found of apparent links to Moscow, which President and Minister used to proclaim the PCCh was at the service of Moscow.

Having thus pushed the extremes into a corner, and with the already divided Chilean Right experiencing a collapse of its own by failing to expand into an election with unprecedented turnout, a resounding victory for the Government turned into an electoral bloodbath as Schnake and his coalition barely surpassed 50% of the vote. The PS experienced another leap to almost 40% as the Radicals held the line even amidst the collapse of the chaotically divided Democratic Party, giving the President majorites in both chambers provided he kept the Radicals in line. The Chilean right experienced another humiliation by falling back to a mere quarter of Congress, and amidst heavy losses for the Communists and annihilation by the Nazis the other relative "winners" proved to be the dissident Popular Socialist Party and General Ibañez's UNI, both of which achieved gains.

After less than three months in office, President Schnake had an enormous mandate behind him not seen since Arturo Alessandri. Could he make use of it?

[Lumine]

Óscar Schnake Vergara

Socialist Party, 1944-1947

Despite a vigorous start and an ambitious agenda,
"Schnaking" falls victim to inflation and a disastrous war with Argentina

Much like many of his colleagues in the Socialist Party, Óscar Schnake had experienced a significant shift on his way of thinking as he had climbed through the ranks of his young political party. The anarchist student leader of the 1920's had turned into the dogmatic and rigorous party man of the 1930's, and then into the dynamic reformer of the 1940's, a rise which had placed him on the Presidency with only 45 years of age and presiding over a party barely a decade old. That only a 100 years after taking office he had been blessed with an unassailable congressional majority fueled the narrative of Schnake as the man who could do no wrong, the dominating leader of the Chilean left. It was that narrative, Schnake's youthful arrogance and his famed admiration for Roosevelt which led Topaze to nickname the President as Schnaking, the Socialist King.

Schnake for this part appeared to deliver on expectations through the first year of his government by virtue of keeping the large but massively inexperienced PS together and enacting several domestic initatives which included a controversial scheme of land reform, industrialization and nationalization reforms, expansion of welfare agencies and institutions and a harsh prosecution of political enemies despite the Cabinet pressuring Schnake not to gamble with another possible communist ban. Taking advantage of these reforms as proof that building democratic Socialism in Chile was possible - despite the vitriolic attacks from the right and persistent criticism from the hard-left , Schnake was able to maintain strong support during his first year in office.

It was during 1946 that the government appeared to be losing its way. The economic front, already shaky during 1945 soon turned into a major problem as the strong protectionist strategy and the government spending policies appeared to have led to a constant rise in inflation two different Finance Ministers proved unable to stop, a factor which was unhelpfully combined with the lack of competitiveness of the youthful Chilean industry. The result rise in the cost of living soon turned public disaffection into outright hostility once the opposition press managed to reveal several scandals within the PS and the Cabinet, forcing several of Schnake's closest allies and friends to resign and bringing his agenda to a halt.

It the end, however, it was foreign policy that would doom the strong-willed reformer. An attempt to shore up domestic support by confronting President Perón of Argentina soon turned into the 1947 Beagle War, a disastrous defeat which both strained the US-Chile relationship - already damaged by Schnake's reforms - and led to significant territorial losses in the south, a national humiliation which led to riots across the nation after the defeat. Schnake himself attempted to turn the situation around and demand emergency powers out of his Congressional majority, only to be ambushed during a stormy cabinet meeting by his Radical and Democratic allies and the dissident Socialists, all of which demanded his head.

Told in no uncertain terms by the increasingly Ibañista army officers that they would not stand for Schnake's attempt to salvage his "Social Democracy" by force, Schnake resigned the Presidency on November 1947 and fled to Europe. Schnaking's reign had lasted almost three years.

[Lumine]

Juan Bautista Rossetti Colombino

Socialist Party, 1947-1948

Vice-President "Juan Flautista" proves to be a crafty political operator,
and narrowly fails to keep the Socialists in power

At the beginning of 1947 Juan Bautista Rossetti - a years-long Ibañista and a socialist only after 1941 - was indeed a prominent leader within the Socialist Party, but one out of many and certainly one far removed from the trust of the still strong President Schnake. That by the beginning of 1948 Rossetti was the almighty Vice-President, undisputed head of the party and near President for a full term was a sign of the convoluted and intense year that spanned the end of the Schnake Presidency. Still, having risen to Minister of the Interior after his predecessor was brought down by scandal and Schnake needed to buy time with his internal critics Rossetti inherited leadership of the government as Vice-President once Schnake resigned - a resignation the new Vice-President certainly did not oppose -, and thus governed the nation through almost five (and very) difficult months.

A polemist at heart - and owner of two popular newspapers, one of them for the working class - the Italian-Chilean Rossetti was at the same time jubilant and aggressive, never wasting an opportunity to attack or smear his opposition while at the same time being unafraid to use power or constantly invoke "the will of the people" as his main argument for any given measure. It was this attitude that led Topaze magazine to cast him as the Pied Piper through a play-on-words with his given name, "Juan Flautista Rosseti", a strong-willed trickster. To his merit Rossetti brought down the Santiago Riots within days through the clever use of force, restrictions and some of the emergency powers Congress denied to Schnake, revived the Socialist electoral outlook through short-term populist economic measures such as a massive raise on wages, and kept his Congressional majority mostly united against the odds until losing it right at the end.

On the other hand, the economic measures had already brought on even large increases on inflation by the time he left office, the harsh repression had alienated possible leftist allies and the Socialist government remained challenged by the disastrous outcome of the Beagle War and constant corruption scandals. Whilst Rossetti fought bravely and effectively until the very end of the 1948 Presidential Election it was his own would-be allies who brought the controversial Vice-President down by crowning Alessandri, causing new divisions within Socialism and Radicalism. Rossetti, nonetheless, left office as the leader of his party and began to plan for the future.

[Lumine]

1948 Presidential Election

February to March 1948 - Ten years after his father left La Moneda,
Fernando Alessandri becomes President

Presidential Vote:

Fernando Alessandri: 41.1%
Juan Bautista Rossetti: 31.1%
Ricardo Fonseca: 16.7%
Carlos Ibañez del Campo: 11.1%

With the strain from the war and the danger posed by the riots ending the Presidency of Óscar Schnake - who nonetheless vowed to return one day - the presidential contest had to be moved from its original date of 1950 by two years and a half, a sudden battle which forced the parties to scramble for their new candidates over a campaign meant to last for only 60 days. Over the course of the first few days several candidacies rose and failed, and the field was finally set to the final four surviving candidates by the end of December 1948: forced to find a consensus nominee after a stalemate the center-right gambled on technocratic Fernando Alessandri; the Communists found themselves inspired by the fiery Ricardo Fonseca; General Ibañez set up another battle with his old followers; and Vice-President Rossetti quickly emerged as the Socialist nominee after some decisive action on his first few days in office.

January featured the main points of the campaign, one which was to surpass 1944 on the level of personal animosity on the campaign trail. Taking notes from Lafertte's historic 1944 result Fonseca took his passionate oratory into lower income areas and did his best to display the various resources of the PSP-PCCh alliance as well. Alas, while Fonseca essentially held to the 1945 share of the vote of his parties he proved unable to break through, partly because his staunch Stalinism and abrasive personality alienated many and also because repression from the Socialist government had made it difficult to organize well. General Ibañez, seen by many as candidate with serious chances due to his populist appeal was also to disappoint heavily on the campaign trail, undercut at the same time by Rossetti's oratory, the General's old age affecting his campaign style and the general weakness of his supporting political parties.

With Ibañez and Fonseca to eventually be left far behind, the true presidential contest was reserved for Senator Alessandri and Vice-President Rossetti. Alessandri Jr. had the advantages of presenting an alternative of change, the unyielding support of both Alessandri Sr. and Ross and his respectable character helping him both with the electorate and with former opponents. Rossetti had proven a formidable political operator as Vice-President, and not only held firmly to the levers of power but also proved eloquent and energetic on his populist oratory. By the time votes were counted on early February it became clear anti-government backlash had pushed Alessandri at a firm first place with 41% and Rossetti behind with 31%, which nonetheless was not dissimilar to Schnake's result back in 1944.

Alas, the election was not to end there. Forced to go to a Congressional confirmation, Vice-President Rossetti marshalled his forces in a strong attempt to deny Alessandri the presidency through the Socialist-Radical congressional majority. Both candidates engaged in a charm offensive as the tension grew and grew within the nation, Rossetti bringing the Ibañistas in line behind him but failing to assuage the hard-left, and Alessandri successfully appealing to the Radical Party and some Socialist defectors while also having to make large concessions in order to be elected. In a narrow, dramatic vote taken a mere week before Inauguration Day and under increased tension within the military the Congress finally elected Senator Alessandri President, but only by the narrowest of margins.

The Socialist reign was seemingly over for now.

[Lumine]

1949 Congressional Elections

March 1949 - Rossetti's meteoric political rise
ends for good after the Socialists suffer an utter meltdown

Popular Vote:

PCCh: 22.2% (+12.7)
PL: 19.7% (+7.7)
PSP: 19.7% (+12.6)
PR: 12.2% (+2.6)
PCA: 12.2% (+2.6)
PDL: 4.7 (-2.2)
PRD: 2.2 (+2.2)
PS: 2.2% (-36.6)
OTH: 2.4% (+0.4)
Government: 31.9% (+8.1)

Deputies:

PCCh: 37 (+26)
PL: 33 (+13)
PSP: 31 (+23)
PCA: 21 (+2)
PR: 18 (+5)
PDL: 4 (-2)
PRD: 2 (+2)
PS: 1 (-68 )
OTH: 0
Government: 54 (+15), 20 short of a majority

Senate:

PS: 12 (-6)
PL: 9 (+1)
PCCh: 7 (+3)
PR: 7 (=)
PCA: 7 (-1)
PSP: 3 (+3)
OTH: 0
Government: 16 (=), 7 short of a majority

At the onset of 1949 the upcoming campaign for the Congressional elections was conceived first and foremost as the second round of the political struggle between Fernando Alessandri and Juan Bautista Rossetti, both men having come from background roles into the protagonism of both the right and the left. With Alessandri in the presidency and Rossetti marshalling a vast PS congressional machine both men were bound to fight each other over Congress in March, the President aiming to push back enough to curtain Rossetti's ability to block his agenda and the former Vice-President fully prepared to hold his strong position and dictate terms to the administration.

That political battle between both men ended in the most unexpected manner at the start of the year when the pro-government press alleged that prominent PS politicians had actually been receiving financial support from Perón's Argentina. The scandal resulted in arrests by detectives and the discovery of actual illegal funding of the PS over the last few months of which Rossetti was described as being at least aware of. The political earthquake proved to be unprecedented, party founder Marmaduque Grove and his entire faction jumping ship to the Popular Socialists as scores of party candidates and supporters defected to the Communists, Popular Socialists or other movements in a meltdown which crippled the party for good.

In this backdrop of rapid downfall for the party, the contest soon turned into a battle between the pro-government forces and the Frente del Pueblo, the main benefactor of the Socialist collapse and which proved united and competent on its campaign. On election night even the most pessimistic projections for the Socialists turned out to be wildly optimistic as the party went from almost 39% to 2%, the public furious at what they considered to be treasonous and the subsequent wave of anger damaging the PDL by association - General Ibañez narrowly lost his final bid for Senate -, ending Rossetti's political and public career and reducing the PS (aside of a lone Deputy) to its surviving Senators elected in 1945, safe for four years more.

The largest winner by far was the Frente del Pueblo as the PCCh shot up from decadence into Chile's largest party at 22%, the PSP not far behind at 20% while González Videla's Radical splinter vehicle crashed and obtained a disappointing result. The government also had a reasonably positive night by virtue of climbing back to 30%, still a far-cry from 1941 (35%) but vastly better than the 1945 disaster. Holding the fort in the Senate and gaining the awaited 1/3 in the Chamber of Deputies President Alessandri could now successfully veto opposition legislation, but remained far away from an actual majority. The Radicals also recovered ground back to 12%, a result which appeared to validate their new strategy.

Once the smoke cleared and as the remnants of the Socialist Party rump were left open for the coming internal civil war, President Alessandri called the Radical Party into government and successfully formed a PL-PCA-PR ministry. Despite a narrow Senate majority and being two votes short in the Chamber of the Deputies, the President had at least improved his precarious situation.

[Lumine]

1953 Congressional Elections

March 1953 - Women successfully enter Congress,
Popular Socialists and Liberals become the strongest parties

Popular Vote:

PSP: 25.9% (+6.2)
PL: 22.3% (+2.6)
PCA: 11.6% (-0.6)
PR: 10.0% (-2.2)
PCCh: 6.4% (-15.8 )
PF: 6.4% (+6.4)
PDL: 4.5% (-0.2)
PSC: 2.9% (+2.9)
PRD: 2.9% (+0.7)
PS: 2.9% (+0.7)
PSA: 2.9% (+2.9)
OTH: 1.3% (-1.1)
Government: 40.3% (+8.4)

Deputies:

PSP: 41 (+9)
PL: 38 (+5)
PCA: 23 (+2)
PR: 16 (-2)
PCCh: 9 (-28)
PF: 8 (+8)
PDL: 4 (=)
PSC: 3 (+3)
PRD: 2 (+1)
PS: 1 (=)
PSA: 1 (+1)
OTH: 0
Government: 69 (+14), 5 short of a majority

Senate:

PL: 11 (+2)
PSP: 10 (+7)
PCCh: 8 (+1)
PCA: 7 (=)
PR: 5 (-2)
PF: 2 (+2)
PDL: 1 (+1)
PSC: 1 (+1)
OTH: 0
Government: 20 (+4), 3 short of a majority

Following five years of government a tired yet relatively satisfied President Fernando Alessandri took to the streets alongside his coalition to fight for an increased standing in Congress in what promised to be an early preview of the next year's presidential contest, and did so under uncertain circumstances due to the significant increase in the size of the electorate following the successful passage of women's suffrage. And with the once mighty Socialist Party still broken and reduced to a rump party, all eyes were on the PCCh-led Frente del Pueblo as the clearest alternative to the President and under deep internal competition. While not dramatic on by-itself up until the last few days, the campaign was nonetheless unprecedented due to a significant number of female candidates for Congress among many parties and also due to the all-women lists of the Women's Party, a crucial ally for the President's chances of gaining seats in the election.

It was around the end of the campaign that the weakness of the Communist Party became more and more noticeable as the famously disciplined party began to broke ranks over the Stalinist views and tactics of General Secretary Fonseca, whose presidential aspirations had led to great resentment within the Communist ranks. The internal chaos was further increased when the party suffered from significant restrictions from the government in order to curb possible strife, partly mimicking Schnake's successful taming of the party in 45'. When the results came it was clear the single biggest loser of the night was the PCCh. Losing almost three quarters of its vote it was the Popular Socialist who shot to the top and became the largest party in Congress, winning their internal round with the Communists and gaining the chance to field their own candidate next year.

The congressional elections were to prove disappointing by the Ibañist-Socialists due to their lack of growth, to former President Schnake after gaining a single seat, and even to the Radical Party after losing ground at the expense of their new Social-Christian allies. In contrast, they were an enormous success for the Popular Socialists despite the weakening of their coalition and more importantly to President Alessandri himself, the alliance with the Women's Party resulting in the best performance for the center-right in fifteen years and pushing the government only a few seats short of congressional majorities.

With the Popular Socialists prepared to lead the opposition, the Liberals gearing for a second term in office and the centrist parties scrambling for alternatives, the stage was set for the next Presidential Election.