NJ-SEN 2024: Menendez loses primary to Alex Law; Law vs. Mike Ferguson

[Suburbia]

Young progressive activist Alex Law shocks the political world and defeats embattled Sen. Bob Menendez 55% to 45%.

Law faces former Rep. Mike Ferguson, who wins the GOP Senate nomination unopposed. Ferguson appeals to minorities and tries to bring back the NJ suburbanite base that left the NJ GOP in the 2010s.

Who wins?

https://jewishweek.timesofisrael.com/at-25-hes-trying-to-take-down-a-new-jersey-political-machine-and-become-the-youngest-person-in-congress/

https://observer.com/2014/10/laying-down-the-law-early-in-cd1/

[NewYorkExpress]

I can see Menendez losing a primary, but it's more likely he'd lose to someone who can pick up the support of machines, or otherwise self-fund, like Phil Murphy.

[MATTROSE94]

I would say that Mike Ferguson would end up narrowly winning in this election. I don’t know that much about Alex Law and thus feel that he would not be all that strong of a statewide candidate. Mike Ferguson, on the other hand, would dominate in Monmouth, Ocean, Sussex, Salem, and Warren counties and would potentially make inroads in Bergen county due to his relatively moderate positions on social issues (excluding abortion).

[LabourJersey]

Mike Ferguson has been out of politics since 2008. If there is a single thing we have learned in the 2018 and 2016 election cycles, it's that campaigns and elections are run so dramatically different nowadays that if you can't catch up you're doomed.

A NJ Senate race in a presidential year starts at Lean D. There's no chance that Mike Ferguson, a remnant of a Republican party that doesn't exist now, much less in 2024, could win