Which Potential Dem Primary candidates Do you give a >5% chance?
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  Which Potential Dem Primary candidates Do you give a >5% chance?		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Which Potential Dem Primary candidates Do you give a >5% chance?  (Read 1018 times)
SCNCmod
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« on: January 17, 2019, 09:51:54 AM »
Which Dems running (or potentially running) for the nomination would you give a greater than 5% chance of winning?
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Pyro
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« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2019, 09:56:22 AM »
Bernie, Biden, Beto, Harris, Warren, Brown.
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andjey
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« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2019, 10:02:19 AM »
Joe Biden
Cory Booker
Sherrod Brown
Kamala Harris
Amy Klobuchar
Beto O'Rourke
Elizabeth Warren
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2019, 01:56:18 PM »
Biden, Bernie, Beto, Warren, Harris and Brown.
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Deleted User #4049
MT2030
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« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2019, 02:06:45 PM »
Biden, Bernie, Beto, Harris, Warren, Brown. Klobuchar and Gillibrand are right on the edge.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2019, 02:23:20 PM »
Quote from: Future President Ron DeSantis on January 17, 2019, 02:06:45 PM
Biden, Bernie, Beto, Harris, Warren, Brown. Klobuchar and Gillibrand are right on the edge.

This
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2019, 02:59:31 PM »
Biden 30%
O'Rourke 15%
Sanders 10%
Warren 7.5%
Harris 7.5%
Booker 5%
Klobuchar 5%
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #7 on: January 17, 2019, 03:32:59 PM »
Quote from: АndriуValeriovich on January 17, 2019, 10:02:19 AM
Joe Biden
Cory Booker
Sherrod Brown
Kamala Harris
Amy Klobuchar
Beto O'Rourke
Elizabeth Warren

Lol @not including Sanders.

I know you are a moderate, but can you please be a bit objective?
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2019, 03:33:56 PM »
« Edited: January 17, 2019, 03:48:59 PM by Lakigigar »
Quote from: Future President Ron DeSantis on January 17, 2019, 02:06:45 PM
Biden, Bernie, Beto, Harris, Warren, Brown. Klobuchar and Gillibrand are right on the edge.
This + Gabbard who's also on the edge.

EDIT: And Booker ofc.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #9 on: January 17, 2019, 08:40:02 PM »
Biden, Booker, Harris, O'Rourke, Sanders, and Warren.
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #10 on: January 17, 2019, 08:41:56 PM »
A >5% chance of beating Trump or a >5% chance of winning the D nomination? For the former, I'd say none of them probably. For the latter, I'd say some of them maybe. IDK the ones like Biden/Beto/Bernie/Harris/Warren/Gillibrand, who are the big names so far, seem to be the one. I'd say people like Oheada and Delaney have <5% chance of winning the D nomination.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #11 on: January 18, 2019, 08:46:21 AM »
Quote from: Trump Is Smarter Than You on January 17, 2019, 08:41:56 PM
A >5% chance of beating Trump or a >5% chance of winning the D nomination? For the former, I'd say none of them probably. For the latter, I'd say some of them maybe. IDK the ones like Biden/Beto/Bernie/Harris/Warren/Gillibrand, who are the big names so far, seem to be the one. I'd say people like Oheada and Delaney have <5% chance of winning the D nomination.

None of them have a 5% chance??
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #12 on: January 18, 2019, 11:48:43 AM »
Harris, Warren, Biden, Beto, Gillibrand, Bernie, Klobuchar.

> 50% chance it's either Harris, Warren, Biden, or Beto.

> 80% chance it's any one of the above.

< 20% chance it's someone in the field outside the 5% margin (Booker, Brown, Delany, Kaine, Cuomo, a celebrity, or someone coming out of nowhere).

That 20% chance will tick down with each passing month, as the window to start a campaign closes.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #13 on: January 18, 2019, 11:56:32 AM »
« Edited: January 18, 2019, 03:27:55 PM by Del Tachi »
Quote from: WI is Safe D on January 18, 2019, 11:48:43 AM
Harris, Warren, Biden, Beto, Gillibrand, Bernie, Klobuchar.

> 50% chance it's either Harris, Warren, Biden, or Beto.

> 80% chance it's any one of the above.

< 20% chance it's someone in the field outside the 5% margin (Booker, Brown, Delany, Kaine, Cuomo, a celebrity, or someone coming out of nowhere).

That 20% chance will tick down with each passing month, as the window to start a campaign closes.

There can't be a >50% chance that more than two candidates win.

Anyway, I'd say the answers are Biden, Harris, Booker, Sanders, Warren, or O'Rourke.
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Cold War Liberal
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« Reply #14 on: January 18, 2019, 12:27:42 PM »
Quote from: Future President Ron DeSantis on January 17, 2019, 02:06:45 PM
Biden, Bernie, Beto, Harris, Warren, Brown. Klobuchar and Gillibrand are right on the edge.
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Orser67
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« Reply #15 on: January 18, 2019, 12:54:40 PM »
Biden, Beto, Harris, Sanders, and Booker.

Warren, Klobuchar, Gillibrand, Brown, Bullock, and Castro are all between 1% and 5%.

Gabbard is < 0.01%
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #16 on: January 18, 2019, 01:00:20 PM »
Quote from: Orser67 on January 18, 2019, 12:54:40 PM
Biden, Beto, Harris, Sanders, and Booker.

Warren, Klobuchar, Gillibrand, Brown, Bullock, and Castro are all between 1% and 5%.

Gabbard is < 0.01%
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
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« Reply #17 on: January 18, 2019, 02:09:34 PM »
Biden, Harris, Beto, Bernie, Warren, and Bloomberg (by sheer force of the money blitz he'll unleash if he runs).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: January 18, 2019, 03:09:23 PM »
Kamala Harris
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #19 on: January 18, 2019, 03:16:35 PM »
Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Beto O'Rourke, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Kirsten Gillibrand
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #20 on: January 18, 2019, 03:31:49 PM »
Harris, O'Rourke, Biden, Gillibrand Sanders and Booker are the only ones with a chance of winning the nomination
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scutosaurus
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« Reply #21 on: January 18, 2019, 03:37:20 PM »
Neil Abercrombie
Michael Bennet
Michael Bloomberg
Kamala Harris
Amy Klobuchar
Tony Knowles
Beto O'Rourke
Bernie Sanders
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #22 on: January 19, 2019, 01:06:06 AM »
Harris, Beto, Gabbard, Warren, and Sanders.
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Big Abraham
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« Reply #23 on: January 19, 2019, 01:08:42 AM »
Quote from: Pyro on January 17, 2019, 09:56:22 AM
Bernie, Biden, Beto, Harris, Warren, Brown.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #24 on: January 23, 2019, 01:08:06 PM »
Quote from: Del Tachi on January 18, 2019, 11:56:32 AM
Quote from: WI is Safe D on January 18, 2019, 11:48:43 AM
Harris, Warren, Biden, Beto, Gillibrand, Bernie, Klobuchar.

> 50% chance it's either Harris, Warren, Biden, or Beto.

> 80% chance it's any one of the above.

< 20% chance it's someone in the field outside the 5% margin (Booker, Brown, Delany, Kaine, Cuomo, a celebrity, or someone coming out of nowhere).

That 20% chance will tick down with each passing month, as the window to start a campaign closes.

There can't be a >50% chance that more than two candidates win.

Anyway, I'd say the answers are Biden, Harris, Booker, Sanders, Warren, or O'Rourke.

Huh

If there's a 20% chance of Harris, a 15% chance of Warren, a 10% chance of Biden, and a 6% chance of Beto, given that they are mutually exclusive events, the chance that one of those four wins is 51%.

If it's even money to bet that one of those four will win vs someone else winning, I would bet on one of those four winning.
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