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April 26, 2019, 09:30:58 am
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  Could a White VRA district ever have to be drawn? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Could a White VRA district ever have to be drawn?  (Read 1576 times)
tack50
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« on: January 19, 2019, 09:44:10 am »

Is there anywhere besides Mississippi where this might be a possibility? Louisiana maybe? California someday?

Trying to think of the present and not the future, some candidates may include

New Mexico: 56% Hispanic (white and non white), 28% Non Hispanic white. Interestingly all 3 congressional seats are reported as at least plurality white, so I imagine they are also counting hispanic whites? Would those count towards VRA purposes?

Hawaii: It's 39% asian, 24% mixed, 25% white apparently as of now. Could you draw a majority, or even plurality white seat in Hawaii?

California: In theory it should have them already right? It's 39% Hispanic and 38% non Hispanic white. Or would Hispanics need to be a majority instead of a plurality for VRA districts to be required?

Looking at territories, there are some who might have to for their territorial/state legislatures (I imagine all would be at large seats except PR). Puerto Rico is what, 90% hispanic? So it certainly isn't getting a VRA seat (and even if it were, it would probably be for black Puerto Ricans)

The US Virgin Islands are 76% black, 16% white, 18% hispanic. So depending on the size of the legislature, maybe 1 white and 1 hispanic seat might be necessary?

Guam is 7% white, American Samoa is 1% white and the Mariana islands are 2% white, so they certainly aren't getting any white VRA seats.

DC might need VRA seats for the city council (or if it becomes a state, the legislature)

So, TL;DR: New Mexico seems like the most promising candidate in the short run. In the long run, Mississippi and maybe California?

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tack50
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« Reply #1 on: January 19, 2019, 09:59:58 am »
« Edited: January 19, 2019, 10:03:45 am by tack50 »

Decided to draw a pseudo-VRA New Mexico map to try my theory. Using Voting Age population:

Img


Seat 1 (blue): 49% hispanic, 41% white, 5% native American (D+15)
Seat 2 (green): 58% white, 34% hispanic, 3% black, 3% native (R+8)
Seat 3 (purple): 44% hispanic, 37% white, 17% native American (D+4)

According to VRA, NM at large is 45% white, 42% hispanic on voting age population, but 41% white and 46% hispanic overall. So this was 100% unnecessary today, but maybe in the future a white VRA seat will be required?
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