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  Washington '18: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington '18: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 620486 times)
Seattle
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« Reply #5625 on: November 28, 2018, 02:44:51 pm »

How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.
What's interesting is that she actually did worse than Murray in 2016 too. Specifically in Pierce County.
But the answer is absolutely polarization. She tanked in SW Washington and did decidedly poorly in Eastern Washington apart from Spokane/Whitman/Walla Walla.

Another thing. Turnout was 94.6% of 2016 senate race and 99.5% of 2012 senate race.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #5626 on: November 28, 2018, 03:52:00 pm »

How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.
What's interesting is that she actually did worse than Murray in 2016 too. Specifically in Pierce County.
But the answer is absolutely polarization. She tanked in SW Washington and did decidedly poorly in Eastern Washington apart from Spokane/Whitman/Walla Walla.

Another thing. Turnout was 94.6% of 2016 senate race and 99.5% of 2012 senate race.

That is something. How she managed to do worse than Murray, in such a favorable environment, is beyond me.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #5627 on: November 28, 2018, 06:01:24 pm »

How come Cantwell underperformed so badly? It seems odd she only did 2 points better than Hillary, especially against a sacrificial lamb like Hutchison.

Polarization, as you yourself have said, and as I've pointed out elsewhere. She, Carper, and Feinstein all failed to clear 60%, like they had back in 2012. Chris Murphy in Connecticut fell short of that mark as well.

I mean, Feinstein was facing another Democrat, so that end of the comparison is not exactly parallel to the rest.

That is true, but De Leon was the de facto Republican in this year's senate race in California. Heavily Republican Lassen and Modoc Counties gave him more than 70% of the vote, and he won all of the other Republican counties in Central and Northern California. Yes, there was a turnout differential in those counties between the Senatorial and Gubernatorial races, but that doesn't change the fact that most Republicans who voted in the Senate race did so for De Leon. Feinstein's numbers also were down considerably in the Bay Area and Los Angeles County from what she got in 2012.

Yeah, but no Republican in existence today would have gotten 42% of the vote in Alameda County or Los Angeles County or 36% of the vote in San Francisco. De Leon's overperformance compared to a Republican in liberal areas is why Feinstein did relatively poorly statewide, not his strength in conservative areas, which was not much different from a typical Republican, and thus his strong performance overall is attributable entirely to him being a liberal Democrat rather than a Republican (and therefore doesn't reflect any weakness on Feinstein, at least to the right).

I also expect that if voters thought the Feinstein-de Leon race would be relatively close and competitive as opposed to the pre-election conventional wisdom that it would be a Feinstein blowout in which voting for de Leon was a safe protest vote, fewer conservatives would have voted for de Leon.
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #5628 on: December 07, 2018, 01:41:32 pm »

Huge news: Frank Chopp, Dem Speaker of the House will step down from his leadership role at the end of the 2019 session and Iím guessing will likely retire come 2020.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/state-house-speaker-frank-chopp-plans-to-step-down-from-leadership-role-at-end-of-2019-session/

Sorry to bother, but, do you (or anyone else) know the final results for the legislative races and what the majorities will look like for each race (factoring in any Democrats caucusing with Republicans)? I wanted to update wikipedia but not eager to start counting from Washington's enormous legislative results XML file.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5629 on: December 07, 2018, 01:48:25 pm »

^ What about this link:

http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/Legislative-All.html

?
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #5630 on: December 07, 2018, 01:50:43 pm »

^ What about this link:

http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/Legislative-All.html

?

Yea I know, I was just hoping someone was already keeping a tally of the final partisan breakdown of each chamber.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5631 on: December 07, 2018, 05:27:36 pm »

^ What about this link:

http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/Legislative-All.html

?

Yea I know, I was just hoping someone was already keeping a tally of the final partisan breakdown of each chamber.

Democrats gained 7 seats in the House and 3 seats in the Senate. The partisan breakdown is 57-41 and 28-21 respectively, counting Tim Sheldon as a Republican.
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #5632 on: December 07, 2018, 06:22:54 pm »

Democrats gained 7 seats in the House and 3 seats in the Senate. The partisan breakdown is 57-41 and 28-21 respectively, counting Tim Sheldon as a Republican.

Thanks! That is what I ended up putting down.
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Seattle
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« Reply #5633 on: January 23, 2019, 05:14:32 pm »

With Inslee basically running for president...
Who runs for governor in 2020? Who do you want?

On the D side, I think it's pretty obvious King County Exec Dow Constantine is in.
I believe AG Bob Ferguson and LG Cyrus Habib want the job.

After that, I can't really think of any high profile Ds that would take a stab at it with those fighting it out. I also think Claudia Balducci will run for King Co Exec if Dow makes it.

I definitely will not be supporting Constantine after his inept response to the homeless and housing affordability emergencies.

I think I'm in the Habib camp should he run.

No clue who wants to run on the R side given the inevitable, a D win.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #5634 on: January 30, 2019, 11:55:52 am »

With Inslee basically running for president...
Who runs for governor in 2020? Who do you want?

On the D side, I think it's pretty obvious King County Exec Dow Constantine is in.
I believe AG Bob Ferguson and LG Cyrus Habib want the job.

After that, I can't really think of any high profile Ds that would take a stab at it with those fighting it out. I also think Claudia Balducci will run for King Co Exec if Dow makes it.

I definitely will not be supporting Constantine after his inept response to the homeless and housing affordability emergencies.

I think I'm in the Habib camp should he run.

No clue who wants to run on the R side given the inevitable, a D win.
wasnt the 2016 race under 10%? also dont washington got two republicans in the row office one of them could run,
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5635 on: January 31, 2019, 04:33:15 am »

With Inslee basically running for president...
Who runs for governor in 2020? Who do you want?

On the D side, I think it's pretty obvious King County Exec Dow Constantine is in.
I believe AG Bob Ferguson and LG Cyrus Habib want the job.

After that, I can't really think of any high profile Ds that would take a stab at it with those fighting it out. I also think Claudia Balducci will run for King Co Exec if Dow makes it.

I definitely will not be supporting Constantine after his inept response to the homeless and housing affordability emergencies.

I think I'm in the Habib camp should he run.

No clue who wants to run on the R side given the inevitable, a D win.
wasnt the 2016 race under 10%? also dont washington got two republicans in the row office one of them could run,

Both are unlikely to run. They are nonoffencive (AFAIK) and competent, but Davidson mostly got elected because Democrats were extremely dumb, and ran 3 very serious candidates in top 2 primary. Republicans - exactly 2, and were lucky to get BOTH into run-off. Wyman? I like her a lot, and she is a solid moderate, but i don't see her running for anything, but her present SoS position.
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