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July 21, 2019, 04:19:30 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

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  Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections (search mode)
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Author Topic: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections  (Read 1880 times)
Old School Republican
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« on: January 19, 2019, 01:23:26 pm »

Well I could see them have a chance in 2026 if this happens :


- Democrats win in 2020, and 2026

- Democrats move in a more anti big tech  direction (Especially statewide)

- GOP nominates a Charlie Baker type
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2019, 11:58:09 pm »

Another thing is the top two rule can lead to distinct state parties like in Canada.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #2 on: January 24, 2019, 04:02:48 pm »

Thanks for replying. I appreciate all your responses. Sorry for the late response, as I'm a college student.

But relating back to the main post, I really think the future of both parties is socially moderate/liberal with there being clear fiscal differences and views on government. In other words, this is because of the eventual urbanization of the country's population, which tends to bring closer contact with other people. To be clear, I don't expect this to happen in my lifetime, but the California GOP should be ahead of the nation in this mass urbanization, as most of the state's population lives within suburban and urban confines. So if they nominate a Charlie Baker or Larry Hogan type, would this mean that the future of the National GOP is looking to progress that way, or is it isolated?


The problem is Suburban Republicans in CA are very right wing as well
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #3 on: January 30, 2019, 04:46:17 am »

Just stunning this was the same state Conservative Republicans(Arnold is more moderate than Today's GOP but hes not more moderate compared to earlier Republicans who were considered Conservatives like Pete Wilson and even Reagan) held the Gubernatorial Office for 31/44 years from 1966-2010 and a period of 16 consecutive years from 1982-1998
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2019, 11:29:00 am »

Just stunning this was the same state Conservative Republicans(Arnold is more moderate than Today's GOP but hes not more moderate compared to earlier Republicans who were considered Conservatives like Pete Wilson and even Reagan) held the Gubernatorial Office for 31/44 years from 1966-2010 and a period of 16 consecutive years from 1982-1998

In 1960th-1970th there were Republicans, like state Senator Peter Behr, who were substantially more liberal, then most Democrats. Where they are now (not personally, of course, but likeminded people)Huh??

Yes but still the ones who the gubernatorial races were solid Conservatives
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2019, 11:55:13 am »

I think there is a chance the Republicans could win with a Charlie Baker/Larry Hogan style candidate. And maybe that is with Kevin Faulconer. But I don't see any transcendent CAGOP figure that totally fits that mold yet. And to do it, it has to be in a 2014 style electorate where absolutely no one is voting and it's the sixth year of a Democratic president with middling to poor approvals.

But in terms of how much actual influence on governing they'd have depends on how the redistricting commission draws the new legislative maps in 2020. If they're anything similar to the existing maps, Democrats have locked in a veto-proof majority indefinitely. The rural packing is getting too extreme for the CAGOP.

And believe it or not, the GOP still has their asses hanging out on a handful of State Senate seats that are up in 2020 (districts 21, 23, 29, 37). And could theoretically bleed a handful more State Assembly seats in 2020, although I can't really see there being a total net change in either direction of more than a seat or two.
no one who isnt a dem is winning anything statewide in California no matter what.


Presidential level and in the senate sure


But other than that it will happen sometime in the next 6-18 years
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