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July 23, 2019, 03:13:52 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

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  Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections (search mode)
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Author Topic: Future of the California GOP in Gubernatorial Elections  (Read 1884 times)
Oryxslayer
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« on: January 27, 2019, 08:39:55 pm »
« edited: January 27, 2019, 10:56:14 pm by Oryxslayer »

 In terms of kingmaker and using the top two system to have a role, in 2016 in the US Senate race I think GOP voters really missed to boat in terms of not massively backing Sanchez over Harris. Instead, according to exit polls, 44% of self described conservatives backed Harris. Bring that number down to about 14% and we might have a new senator. (Of course would a perceived GOP Sanchez alliance have galvanized liberal support even more for Harris? Perhaps but Harris was already getting the lions share of liberal voters anyway.

Couple problems with this line of thought:

1 - Sanchez was shown to be a god awful candidate during the debates and the general campaign. Her campaign may have got more GOP voters if she was actually seen as someone who could win, rather then someone who self-sacrificed herself.

2 - Why should the GOP whip their voters to support a dem? You're not going to get one party to line up behind anothers candidate unless you spend precious resources to advertise and activate your voters. If Dems try and campaign off GOP voters, they will miss the lions share thanks to polarization. The other option that gets one party to line up behind another was seen in 2018. Feinstein was a known controversial liberal, so the GOP lined up behind the more left De Leon. Feinstein in this situation had tons of conservative scrutiny over Kavanaugh, so the ads and 'whipping' were more or less free.

And what happens if they whip their voters? Another dem goes into the senate from a blue state, takes up Shumers whip, and will win reelection in 6 years off the Dem supermajority among voters.

3 - Why should conservatives vote for a Dem? You're casting a ballot for someone who won't hold your views, and won't respect your opinions. Lets go back to 2018, which saw GOP voters motivated to simply cast a dissident vote against Feinstein. 12,464,235 people voted for Gov, compared to 11,113,364 people for senate. Over one million conservatives left the ballot blank, which would be the more rational option. Hell, the Insurance Commisioner race, with Poizner as a psudo-GOP'er got 650K more votes then the senate race - despite its position far down the ballot.

Now you might say something like this is a national senate race, perhaps the GOP supports dems locally they might foster a crossbench similar to NY's IDC. The problem with this though is that the seats that see top-two dem races are all Deep blue - the place where GOP support dooms candidates rather than lifts them up.

The problem facing the CAGOP is that there seems to be no way out of the death spiral. Poizner was the finger in the wind - a popular former incumbent against a more radical dem, in a race far enough down the ballot for ignorant Dems to drop off. There ended up being enough lockstep dem votes to put Lara in government, basically saying that the Baker route is mathematically closed here.  Sure, the dems might screw up like OK/KS Rs or CT/MD Ds - but the blue moon governor is a situation that can occur in all states. On the other hand, the GOP won't die, they have a loyal but shrinking 30% base in the Far East/North/Inland South. A realignment won't save them - the modern Dem party revolves around CA so much that Clinton had to come back for cash every now and again in 2016. Its now a majority-minority state, and the GOP won't win races until they start winning minorities.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1 on: January 30, 2019, 02:54:38 pm »

I think there is a chance the Republicans could win with a Charlie Baker/Larry Hogan style candidate. And maybe that is with Kevin Faulconer. But I don't see any transcendent CAGOP figure that totally fits that mold yet. And to do it, it has to be in a 2014 style electorate where absolutely no one is voting and it's the sixth year of a Democratic president with middling to poor approvals.

But in terms of how much actual influence on governing they'd have depends on how the redistricting commission draws the new legislative maps in 2020. If they're anything similar to the existing maps, Democrats have locked in a veto-proof majority indefinitely. The rural packing is getting too extreme for the CAGOP.

And believe it or not, the GOP still has their asses hanging out on a handful of State Senate seats that are up in 2020 (districts 21, 23, 29, 37). And could theoretically bleed a handful more State Assembly seats in 2020, although I can't really see there being a total net change in either direction of more than a seat or two.
no one who isnt a dem is winning anything statewide in California no matter what.


Presidential level and in the senate sure


But other than that it will happen sometime in the next 6-18 years

If you missed my big in depth dive, I concluded that this route is basically shut. Poizner was the finger in the wind, he had everything right going for him: Independent affiliation to drive his separation from the pubs, personal strength with Silicon Valley whites AND minorities, a former record of success to campaign on, endorsements form democratic leaning groups and newspapers, a opponent who was on the far left so Poizner could take mainstream Liberal positions like defending and expanding Obamacare, and a campaign that was based on his opponents positions like single payer, I can go on about the list of things in his favor. Poizer Lost. There are just too many lock-step Democrats.

Poizner probably would have won in a year like 2014, but that shows just how narrow that path is. The candidate needs to have everything, and I mean everything, go right plus a favorable environment to win. Oh and they can't be a Republican, or else the dems will just see the candidate as a friend of the national republicans exclusionary policies.

I mean sure, the once-in-a-blue-moon governor could arrive if dems drive the state into the toilet, but that is always a threat in any state, no matter how partisan. Every other route has worse then 1 in a hundred odds.
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