I think there is a chance the Republicans could win with a Charlie Baker/Larry Hogan style candidate. And maybe that is with Kevin Faulconer. But I don't see any transcendent CAGOP figure that totally fits that mold yet. And to do it, it has to be in a 2014 style electorate where absolutely no one is voting and it's the sixth year of a Democratic president with middling to poor approvals.
But in terms of how much actual influence on governing they'd have depends on how the redistricting commission draws the new legislative maps in 2020. If they're anything similar to the existing maps, Democrats have locked in a veto-proof majority indefinitely. The rural packing is getting too extreme for the CAGOP.
And believe it or not, the GOP still has their asses hanging out on a handful of State Senate seats that are up in 2020 (districts 21, 23, 29, 37). And could theoretically bleed a handful more State Assembly seats in 2020, although I can't really see there being a total net change in either direction of more than a seat or two.
no one who isnt a dem is winning anything statewide in California no matter what.
