Predict Bevin's margin of victory

[ElectionsGuy]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Rand Paul was hardly unpopular and still won a Senate race by only 14 points in a R wave year with Trump at the top of the ticket. Somehow I doubt that Bevin is only going to do two points worse than Paul.

Paul's performance was weak but how was 2016 an R wave year? They lost two Senate seats and a marginal number of house seats, the house PV was R+1. It's not an R wave just because they overperformed expectations overall.

[MT Treasurer]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Rand Paul was hardly unpopular and still won a Senate race by only 14 points in a R wave year with Trump at the top of the ticket. Somehow I doubt that Bevin is only going to do two points worse than Paul.

Paul's performance was weak but how was 2016 an R wave year? They lost two Senate seats and a marginal number of house seats, the house PV was R+1. It's not an R wave just because they overperformed expectations overall.

It definitely was a R wave year in Kentucky. Republicans won landslide victories across the board and gained control of the Kentucky House of Representatives for the first time since 1920, turning a 53-46 D majority into a 64-36 R one.

[henster]

Adam Edelen is closing strong with good ads like this among others and he's outspending the field, I think he's primed for an upset in the primary.

https://twitter.com/adamhedelen/status/1125801602684719104

[Xing]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Rand Paul was hardly unpopular and still won a Senate race by only 14 points in a R wave year with Trump at the top of the ticket. Somehow I doubt that Bevin is only going to do two points worse than Paul.

Yeah, Paul still beat a strong opponent by 14%, and he didn't exactly embrace Trump with open the way that Bevin will. That's not to say that Trump will give him a 25% boost, but allying himself fully with Trump will help in a lot in the areas where he's "unpopular."

[MT Treasurer]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Rand Paul was hardly unpopular and still won a Senate race by only 14 points in a R wave year with Trump at the top of the ticket. Somehow I doubt that Bevin is only going to do two points worse than Paul.

Yeah, Paul still beat a strong opponent by 14%, and he didn't exactly embrace Trump with open the way that Bevin will. That's not to say that Trump will give him a 25% boost, but allying himself fully with Trump will help in a lot in the areas where he's "unpopular."

You’re missing the forest for the trees here: Paul was and is far more popular than Bevin will ever be. And yeah, allying himself fully with Trump will surely guarantee Bevin’s success in a gubernatorial election, just ask Governor Kris Kobach.

I’m not denying that Kentucky is an incredibly difficult state for Democrats to win these days, but I really don’t buy that Bevin’s reelection is a done deal no matter what.

[Xing]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Rand Paul was hardly unpopular and still won a Senate race by only 14 points in a R wave year with Trump at the top of the ticket. Somehow I doubt that Bevin is only going to do two points worse than Paul.

Yeah, Paul still beat a strong opponent by 14%, and he didn't exactly embrace Trump with open the way that Bevin will. That's not to say that Trump will give him a 25% boost, but allying himself fully with Trump will help in a lot in the areas where he's "unpopular."

You’re missing the forest for the trees here: Paul was and is far more popular than Bevin will ever be. And yeah, allying himself fully with Trump will surely guarantee Bevin’s success in a gubernatorial election, just ask Governor Kris Kobach.

I’m not denying that Kentucky is an incredibly difficult state for Democrats to win these days, but I really don’t buy that Bevin’s reelection is a done deal no matter what.

Kansas is significantly less Republican than Kentucky, and do you think the Cincinnati suburbs or Oldham county are going to start voting as heavily Democratic as the KC suburbs did in KS-GOV? Or do you honestly think that Elliott county is going to vote against Bevin? Yes, there are examples of Democrats winning in places Trump won handily, but Kentucky seems like one of the last places to do so. McConnell was just as unpopular as Bevin in 2014, and he won by 15% all the same.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Rand Paul was hardly unpopular and still won a Senate race by only 14 points in a R wave year with Trump at the top of the ticket. Somehow I doubt that Bevin is only going to do two points worse than Paul.

Yeah, Paul still beat a strong opponent by 14%, and he didn't exactly embrace Trump with open the way that Bevin will. That's not to say that Trump will give him a 25% boost, but allying himself fully with Trump will help in a lot in the areas where he's "unpopular."

You’re missing the forest for the trees here: Paul was and is far more popular than Bevin will ever be. And yeah, allying himself fully with Trump will surely guarantee Bevin’s success in a gubernatorial election, just ask Governor Kris Kobach.

I’m not denying that Kentucky is an incredibly difficult state for Democrats to win these days, but I really don’t buy that Bevin’s reelection is a done deal no matter what.

Kansas is significantly less Republican than Kentucky, and do you think the Cincinnati suburbs or Oldham county are going to start voting as heavily Democratic as the KC suburbs did in KS-GOV? Or do you honestly think that Elliott county is going to vote against Bevin? Yes, there are examples of Democrats winning in places Trump won handily, but Kentucky seems like one of the last places to do so. McConnell was just as unpopular as Bevin in 2014, and he won by 15% all the same.

That wouldnt make any difference anyway

[ElectionsGuy]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Rand Paul was hardly unpopular and still won a Senate race by only 14 points in a R wave year with Trump at the top of the ticket. Somehow I doubt that Bevin is only going to do two points worse than Paul.

Yeah, Paul still beat a strong opponent by 14%, and he didn't exactly embrace Trump with open the way that Bevin will. That's not to say that Trump will give him a 25% boost, but allying himself fully with Trump will help in a lot in the areas where he's "unpopular."

You’re missing the forest for the trees here: Paul was and is far more popular than Bevin will ever be. And yeah, allying himself fully with Trump will surely guarantee Bevin’s success in a gubernatorial election, just ask Governor Kris Kobach.

I’m not denying that Kentucky is an incredibly difficult state for Democrats to win these days, but I really don’t buy that Bevin’s reelection is a done deal no matter what.

Kansas is significantly less Republican than Kentucky, and do you think the Cincinnati suburbs or Oldham county are going to start voting as heavily Democratic as the KC suburbs did in KS-GOV? Or do you honestly think that Elliott county is going to vote against Bevin? Yes, there are examples of Democrats winning in places Trump won handily, but Kentucky seems like one of the last places to do so. McConnell was just as unpopular as Bevin in 2014, and he won by 15% all the same.

Honestly? I think he will lose Elliott and a few other counties that Jim Gray carried in 2016. Having <30% approval in a governor's race where there are many registered DINOs is probably enough for these people to come back temporarily for someone like Edelen or Beshear. To be clear though, I think Democrats will continue to lose it by large margins in congressional and presidential races.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Charlie Cook has this race as tossup for all the blue avatars. Beshear is gonna win, and the GOP state assembly, especially, on school choice, have been on Beshear's side.

[Xing]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Rand Paul was hardly unpopular and still won a Senate race by only 14 points in a R wave year with Trump at the top of the ticket. Somehow I doubt that Bevin is only going to do two points worse than Paul.

Yeah, Paul still beat a strong opponent by 14%, and he didn't exactly embrace Trump with open the way that Bevin will. That's not to say that Trump will give him a 25% boost, but allying himself fully with Trump will help in a lot in the areas where he's "unpopular."

You’re missing the forest for the trees here: Paul was and is far more popular than Bevin will ever be. And yeah, allying himself fully with Trump will surely guarantee Bevin’s success in a gubernatorial election, just ask Governor Kris Kobach.

I’m not denying that Kentucky is an incredibly difficult state for Democrats to win these days, but I really don’t buy that Bevin’s reelection is a done deal no matter what.

Kansas is significantly less Republican than Kentucky, and do you think the Cincinnati suburbs or Oldham county are going to start voting as heavily Democratic as the KC suburbs did in KS-GOV? Or do you honestly think that Elliott county is going to vote against Bevin? Yes, there are examples of Democrats winning in places Trump won handily, but Kentucky seems like one of the last places to do so. McConnell was just as unpopular as Bevin in 2014, and he won by 15% all the same.

Honestly? I think he will lose Elliott and a few other counties that Jim Gray carried in 2016. Having <30% approval in a governor's race where there are many registered DINOs is probably enough for these people to come back temporarily for someone like Edelen or Beshear. To be clear though, I think Democrats will continue to lose it by large margins in congressional and presidential races.

Lol yeah, I see no realistic scenario where Bevin loses to a Democrat but I can see him losing Elliott even if it won’t be by much. Manchin was able to eke our a narrow win in its ideological twin McDowell County one last time last year, so I think there’s still time for local Dems to notch a couple more wins before it’s completely gone

True, but Manchin overperformed Clinton by 45% in WV. I don't see the Democratic candidate overperforming Clinton by more than 25% in KY. I could see Elliott county being a narrow win for Bevin, but I don't see it going Democratic.

[Politician]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Rand Paul was hardly unpopular and still won a Senate race by only 14 points in a R wave year with Trump at the top of the ticket. Somehow I doubt that Bevin is only going to do two points worse than Paul.

Yeah, Paul still beat a strong opponent by 14%, and he didn't exactly embrace Trump with open the way that Bevin will. That's not to say that Trump will give him a 25% boost, but allying himself fully with Trump will help in a lot in the areas where he's "unpopular."

You’re missing the forest for the trees here: Paul was and is far more popular than Bevin will ever be. And yeah, allying himself fully with Trump will surely guarantee Bevin’s success in a gubernatorial election, just ask Governor Kris Kobach.

I’m not denying that Kentucky is an incredibly difficult state for Democrats to win these days, but I really don’t buy that Bevin’s reelection is a done deal no matter what.

Kansas is significantly less Republican than Kentucky, and do you think the Cincinnati suburbs or Oldham county are going to start voting as heavily Democratic as the KC suburbs did in KS-GOV? Or do you honestly think that Elliott county is going to vote against Bevin? Yes, there are examples of Democrats winning in places Trump won handily, but Kentucky seems like one of the last places to do so. McConnell was just as unpopular as Bevin in 2014, and he won by 15% all the same.

Honestly? I think he will lose Elliott and a few other counties that Jim Gray carried in 2016. Having <30% approval in a governor's race where there are many registered DINOs is probably enough for these people to come back temporarily for someone like Edelen or Beshear. To be clear though, I think Democrats will continue to lose it by large margins in congressional and presidential races.

Lol yeah, I see no realistic scenario where Bevin loses to a Democrat but I can see him losing Elliott even if it won’t be by much. Manchin was able to eke our a narrow win in its ideological twin McDowell County one last time last year, so I think there’s still time for local Dems to notch a couple more wins before it’s completely gone

True, but Manchin overperformed Clinton by 45% in WV. I don't see the Democratic candidate overperforming Clinton by more than 25% in KY. I could see Elliott county being a narrow win for Bevin, but I don't see it going Democratic.

Elliott county voted well to the left of McDowell County even in 2016. In addition, Hal Rogers (an institution in Eastern KY) won Elliott by less against a sacrifical lamb than Miller did McDowell against #Populist Ojeda.

[MT Treasurer]

10-15%, but I wouldn't be surprised by 5-10% or 15-20%. There was no need to include that troll option at the end.

What a troll option.

This is why you include as many options as possible in these "Rate XY" threads and not just Lean/Likely/Safe R.

[Antonio the Sixth]

ayy lmao