Predict Bevin's margin of victory

[morgieb]

The idea that an incumbent governor with such an abysmally low approval rating is safe in an off-year election just because he won under extremely favorable conditions four years ago (when Republicans were much more motivated than Democrats) is ludicrous. I think he’ll win, but it won’t be a landslide like this forum seems to think. "Safe R because Kentucky/polarization" is incredibly lazy #analysis, even by this forum's standards.

McConnell is extremely unpopular and still won by 15% in 2014, when all the pundits called it a Toss-Up race and the Democrats spent the kitchen sink to try and defeat him. If Kentucky were less Republican-leaning, maybe Bevin would be vulnerable, but it's become one of the most Republican states in the country, and it's not electing a Democrat statewide this year. Grimes seems to understand that.

Comparing Senate races to Governor ones is kinda chalk and cheese though. Being one of the most Democratic states in the country didn't stop Hogan, Baker or Scott winning, for example.

[smoltchanov]

The idea that an incumbent governor with such an abysmally low approval rating is safe in an off-year election just because he won under extremely favorable conditions four years ago (when Republicans were much more motivated than Democrats) is ludicrous. I think he’ll win, but it won’t be a landslide like this forum seems to think. "Safe R because Kentucky/polarization" is incredibly lazy #analysis, even by this forum's standards.

McConnell is extremely unpopular and still won by 15% in 2014, when all the pundits called it a Toss-Up race and the Democrats spent the kitchen sink to try and defeat him. If Kentucky were less Republican-leaning, maybe Bevin would be vulnerable, but it's become one of the most Republican states in the country, and it's not electing a Democrat statewide this year. Grimes seems to understand that.

Comparing Senate races to Governor ones is kinda chalk and cheese though. Being one of the most Democratic states in the country didn't stop Hogan, Baker or Scott winning, for example.

+100. "Rules" for federal and statewide elections are very different...

[The3rdParty]

The idea that an incumbent governor with such an abysmally low approval rating is safe in an off-year election just because he won under extremely favorable conditions four years ago (when Republicans were much more motivated than Democrats) is ludicrous. I think he’ll win, but it won’t be a landslide like this forum seems to think. "Safe R because Kentucky/polarization" is incredibly lazy #analysis, even by this forum's standards.

McConnell is extremely unpopular and still won by 15% in 2014, when all the pundits called it a Toss-Up race and the Democrats spent the kitchen sink to try and defeat him. If Kentucky were less Republican-leaning, maybe Bevin would be vulnerable, but it's become one of the most Republican states in the country, and it's not electing a Democrat statewide this year. Grimes seems to understand that.

Comparing Senate races to Governor ones is kinda chalk and cheese though. Being one of the most Democratic states in the country didn't stop Hogan, Baker or Scott winning, for example.

+100. "Rules" for federal and statewide elections are very different...

Yup, they can tie dem senators in red states to Schmuer and voting against Trump but governors run the state and don't do anything with Trump so Dems and republicans can literally win anywhere. This is how there is a LA and KS dem gov and MA, MD, VT republicans. They can get away with being "moderate".

[_]

-3%

[Xing]

In some cases, states that are strongly Democratic/Republican at the federal level are willing to elect Governors of the opposite party. Not every state, though, since Kansas was the only solidly Republican state to elect a Democratic Governor, and several states that were supposed to be ultra-close ended up being.... anti-climactic, to say the least (Idaho, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, etc.) Kentucky nearly kicked out every statewide Democrat four years ago, and one of the Democrats who wasn't kicked out read the political winds and decided not to run.

I'll happily feast on crow if I'm wrong (I'd love to see Bevin lose), but I feel pretty confident saying that this will be OK-GOV and TN-SEN all over again. Best case scenario for Beshear would be more of an OR-GOV margin, if he runs a strong campaign.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The idea that an incumbent governor with such an abysmally low approval rating is safe in an off-year election just because he won under extremely favorable conditions four years ago (when Republicans were much more motivated than Democrats) is ludicrous. I think he’ll win, but it won’t be a landslide like this forum seems to think. "Safe R because Kentucky/polarization" is incredibly lazy #analysis, even by this forum's standards.

Beshear by 3 points

[IceSpear]

10-15%, but I wouldn't be surprised by 5-10% or 15-20%. There was no need to include that troll option at the end.

[S019]

Bevin by 7%

[Sestak]

5 points. His unpopularity does mean something, after all.

[Bidenworth2020]

10-15%, but I wouldn't be surprised by 5-10% or 15-20%. There was no need to include that troll option at the end.

Do you really think Beshear will do worse than Gray? LMAO, just ignore that Beshear is stronger than Gray and Bevin is way more unpopular, not to mention it is a Gubernatorial Race.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Bevin by 3-5%, don't count Beshear out though.

[IceSpear]

10-15%, but I wouldn't be surprised by 5-10% or 15-20%. There was no need to include that troll option at the end.

Do you really think Beshear will do worse than Gray? LMAO, just ignore that Beshear is stronger than Gray and Bevin is way more unpopular, not to mention it is a Gubernatorial Race.

I think he'll do a bit better than Gray. Gray lost by 14 points, which is on the upper end of my 10-15% prediction. I actually do think that even if Beshear does a bit better than Gray he's going to win less counties. In fact, I'm predicting the only counties he wins are Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin.

You're ignoring two important factors here too.

1) Rand Paul was/is a completely terrible and godawful fit for the state who embarrassed himself in his presidential run, plus had the temerity to criticize Kentucky's God Emperor.

2) Kentucky's hatred for Democrats increases exponentially every year. They hate Democrats even more in 2019 than they did in 2016. I don't know why you all obsess over winning deep red states. They hate all Democrats. They hate you. They hate me. They hate Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, or whoever else you like politically. They despise the Democratic Party and everything it stands for. GET OVER IT! The "WWC #populist " obsessed Atlas posters are like the jilted ex that still obsesses over and begs their ex to give them another chance, even though their ex hates them with every fiber of their being and wants absolutely nothing to do with them ever again.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

He loses 47-45%.

[Comrade Funk]

10-15%, but I wouldn't be surprised by 5-10% or 15-20%. There was no need to include that troll option at the end.

Do you really think Beshear will do worse than Gray? LMAO, just ignore that Beshear is stronger than Gray and Bevin is way more unpopular, not to mention it is a Gubernatorial Race.

I think he'll do a bit better than Gray. Gray lost by 14 points, which is on the upper end of my 10-15% prediction. I actually do think that even if Beshear does a bit better than Gray he's going to win less counties. In fact, I'm predicting the only counties he wins are Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin.

You're ignoring two important factors here too.

1) Rand Paul was/is a completely terrible and godawful fit for the state who embarrassed himself in his presidential run, plus had the temerity to criticize Kentucky's God Emperor.

2) Kentucky's hatred for Democrats increases exponentially every year. They hate Democrats even more in 2019 than they did in 2016. I don't know why you all obsess over winning deep red states. They hate all Democrats. They hate you. They hate me. They hate Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, or whoever else you like politically. They despise the Democratic Party and everything it stands for. GET OVER IT! The "WWC #populist " obsessed Atlas posters are like the jilted ex that still obsesses over and begs their ex to give them another chance, even though their ex hates them with every fiber of their being and wants absolutely nothing to do with them ever again.

[Bidenworth2020]

10-15%, but I wouldn't be surprised by 5-10% or 15-20%. There was no need to include that troll option at the end.

Do you really think Beshear will do worse than Gray? LMAO, just ignore that Beshear is stronger than Gray and Bevin is way more unpopular, not to mention it is a Gubernatorial Race.

I think he'll do a bit better than Gray. Gray lost by 14 points, which is on the upper end of my 10-15% prediction. I actually do think that even if Beshear does a bit better than Gray he's going to win less counties. In fact, I'm predicting the only counties he wins are Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin.

You're ignoring two important factors here too.

1) Rand Paul was/is a completely terrible and godawful fit for the state who embarrassed himself in his presidential run, plus had the temerity to criticize Kentucky's God Emperor.

2) Kentucky's hatred for Democrats increases exponentially every year. They hate Democrats even more in 2019 than they did in 2016. I don't know why you all obsess over winning deep red states. They hate all Democrats. They hate you. They hate me. They hate Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, or whoever else you like politically. They despise the Democratic Party and everything it stands for. GET OVER IT! The "WWC #populist " obsessed Atlas posters are like the jilted ex that still obsesses over and begs their ex to give them another chance, even though their ex hates them with every fiber of their being and wants absolutely nothing to do with them ever again.

1)Rand Paul is not wildly popular, but his approval has been pretty solidly above ground in Kentucky for his whole tenure.

2)I generally agree with your sentiment, but I feel I can make a strong case that Bevin's unpopularity has brought back a lot of ancestral Democrats into our local coalition, especially in eastern KY. We picked up 8 seats in the Kentucky state house, 2 in the Senate. Almost every single one of them was Trump 80+% Trump.

[MT Treasurer]

5 points. His unpopularity does mean something, after all.

No it doesn’t because something something polarization and racist hicks. Gubernatorial races are now just as partisan as Senate races, just ask governors Vitter, Jealous, Kobach,...

[Politician]

10-15%, but I wouldn't be surprised by 5-10% or 15-20%. There was no need to include that troll option at the end.

Do you really think Beshear will do worse than Gray? LMAO, just ignore that Beshear is stronger than Gray and Bevin is way more unpopular, not to mention it is a Gubernatorial Race.

I think he'll do a bit better than Gray. Gray lost by 14 points, which is on the upper end of my 10-15% prediction. I actually do think that even if Beshear does a bit better than Gray he's going to win less counties. In fact, I'm predicting the only counties he wins are Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin.

You're ignoring two important factors here too.

1) Rand Paul was/is a completely terrible and godawful fit for the state who embarrassed himself in his presidential run, plus had the temerity to criticize Kentucky's God Emperor.

2) Kentucky's hatred for Democrats increases exponentially every year. They hate Democrats even more in 2019 than they did in 2016. I don't know why you all obsess over winning deep red states. They hate all Democrats. They hate you. They hate me. They hate Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, or whoever else you like politically. They despise the Democratic Party and everything it stands for. GET OVER IT! The "WWC #populist " obsessed Atlas posters are like the jilted ex that still obsesses over and begs their ex to give them another chance, even though their ex hates them with every fiber of their being and wants absolutely nothing to do with them ever again.

1)Rand Paul is not wildly popular, but his approval has been pretty solidly above ground in Kentucky for his whole tenure.

2)I generally agree with your sentiment, but I feel I can make a strong case that Bevin's unpopularity has brought back a lot of ancestral Democrats into our local coalition, especially in eastern KY. We picked up 8 seats in the Kentucky state house, 2 in the Senate. Almost every single one of them was Trump 80+% Trump.

I'm pretty sure Democrats net lost seats in the KY Senate and only gained 2 seats in the House.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bevin is gonna lose

[MT Treasurer]

Senator Moore and Governor Cole agree that IceSpear is never wrong.

[IceSpear]

Senator Moore and Governor Cole agree that IceSpear is never wrong.

I'll be happy to change my rating if Bevin is a pedophile and/or switches parties.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We can be wrong, we arent pudits on tv forecasting predictions, we are bloggers.

Just like many predicted on here, R's would hold House, even past Oct, 2018

[LoneStarDem]

10 percentage points most likely.

[Zot]

All our governor needs is a few commercials with the word "coal" and a visit from President Trump. If we are really lucky, maybe the Clintons will visit.

[Suburbia]

Bevin loses by 3 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bevin loses by 3 points.