What current trends are mostly vote shifting vs demographic change?

[Karpatsky]

Clearly any shift is probably going to be at least partially the result of both, but likely some are more one vs the other - for instance, my perception is that the R trend of rural white areas is more ancestral Democrats starting to vote Republican than it is Democratic voters moving to urban areas, and that the D trend of suburbs is more changing of populations than it is suburbanites changing their votes. Are these perceptions accurate, and what other current trends lean one way or the other?

[Nyvin]

Pretty much.   In fact the whole solidification of the Democratic Party with left wing progressives can be summed up by the millennial generation coming of age and actually voting, while more centrist, pro-labor groups of boomers moved to the Republicans.

[darklordoftech]

In a discussion about the 1988 election, I recall someone mentioning suburbanites moving to rural places.

[cvparty]

the suburban trend is some combination of both factors as you said. but even though collin county is growing fast, there is no way the population change from 2012 to 2016 was responsible for the 15-point swing. most of the D swing in suburbs in 2016 was indeed mostly bc of white people changing their vote, not demographic change (this is why the white vote remained at approximately R+20 from 2012 to 2016, bc even though a ton of blue-collar whites swung R, it was counteracted by educated whites swinging D)

[Ban my account ffs!]

there’s a ton of change going on right now because every demographic characteristic is seeing polarization....gender, sexuality, race, ethnicity, size of community, geographical location... etc etc.

Suburban women are fleeing the GOP like a bat out of hell while suburban men change less.  In rural areas the men are running right like they’ve seen a ghost while the women are more of a light jog.  This shows a divergence in gender while also explaining suburban vs rural trends.