Kamala Harris 2020 campaign megathread

[ViaActiva]

A black female gun grabbing lawyer from California.

Good luck with the WWC in Michigan and Ohio.

Reported for overt and unapologetic racism.

What's also obnoxious in this thread is the assumption that Kamala Harris is defined solely by 'identity politics' and people making certain judgements at this stage about which states she can win (remember when Bill Clinton said that Obama was the 'Jesse Jackson' candidate in 2008?) - all because she is a black woman. That's an implicit and almost as dangerous form of racism. It is an important moment that a black woman is running for President but please let's focus on her character, qualities, and position on the issues. Many people disregarded Obama's electoral chances because of historic racism in 2007-08 and they were wrong.

she doesn't have obama's charisma and ideology, country is not in recession. and she doesn't even look black to me, so i don't know where that "black card" coming from. all we know about her is that she's a wall street puppet and there is nothing racist about saying that.

FFS - are you serious? Reporting too.

I don't think it's wise to judge her charisma and ideology so early on, we've haven't really seen anyone's campaign catch fire yet.

I'd also just like to note that Reaganfan has changed his name from 'Evil Racist WWC' or words to that effect to Voice of America.

[PaperKooper]

As a Republican, I haven't paid much attention to Harris so I don't understand her appeal.  I know she'd be the first woman and first Indian president, but what are her signature issues?  What has she accomplished in her political career so far?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Let's be completely honest here, if she gets a decent amount of support, it'll ONLY be because of the boxes she checks for sjw Democrats, not because of anything she's done in her career.

Let's be completely honest here, any woman who runs for anything is ONLY winning because she's an SJW female Democrat who didn't work hard at all for where she is at now.

Not in 2008 , Obama was clearly considered the more SJW candidate compared to Hillary and if Amy Klobacher for example runs this year she wouldn’t be a SJW candidate either .

Notice Klobuchar is the woman everyone cites. Why? Maybe because she's midwestern and that's the type of identity politics everyone likes, as opposed to the dirty identity politics of women on the coasts (especially black ones)?

There's a strong chance I'll support Gillibrand, (see sig) and I think Harris is a trash candidate.

You went from supporting a white man in the 2016 primary to initially supporting that same white man for this cycle’s primary to supporting a different white man from Texas to now supporting a white woman.

Possibly. I'm still undecided about who to support, Sanders, Beto and Gillibrand are all possibilities. Harris is not.

But i supported a black man for the entire campaign season 2007-08. So if you're looking for a pattern.

[Zaybay]

Here in Georgia with a bunch of organizers and party people on my social media (more of them white than black I might add) and this announcement by far has gotten the biggest and most fervent reaction. She’s sweeping the South.

Same story in CA — word I’m getting is that her organizer and donor support here is nearly unanimous. And CA + the South + black support elsewhere is the nomination.

Couple problems:
1.CA is going to be heavily contested by everyone. She isnt likely to get a simple majority there.
2. The Black vote will be divided between other candidates like Booker, Biden, and Sanders
3. The South is only influential if she can get crazy margins out of it like Clinton/Obama did. See point 2 on how this would be difficult.

That plan, IMO, is highly risky, and requires no mistakes or losses for the Harris campaign.

[DrScholl]

Here in Georgia with a bunch of organizers and party people on my social media (more of them white than black I might add) and this announcement by far has gotten the biggest and most fervent reaction. She’s sweeping the South.

Same story in CA — word I’m getting is that her organizer and donor support here is nearly unanimous. And CA + the South + black support elsewhere is the nomination.

Couple problems:
1.CA is going to be heavily contested by everyone. She isnt likely to get a simple majority there.
2. The Black vote will be divided between other candidates like Booker, Biden, and Sanders
3. The South is only influential if she can get crazy margins out of it like Clinton/Obama did. See point 2 on how this would be difficult.

That plan, IMO, is highly risky, and requires no mistakes or losses for the Harris campaign.

Sanders is not going to get much of the black vote, so he is not even a factor. If he did abysmally with black voters against a white candidate, he's not going to do much better against a black candidates.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Here in Georgia with a bunch of organizers and party people on my social media (more of them white than black I might add) and this announcement by far has gotten the biggest and most fervent reaction. She’s sweeping the South.

Same story in CA — word I’m getting is that her organizer and donor support here is nearly unanimous. And CA + the South + black support elsewhere is the nomination.

Couple problems:
1.CA is going to be heavily contested by everyone. She isnt likely to get a simple majority there.
2. The Black vote will be divided between other candidates like Booker, Biden, and Sanders
3. The South is only influential if she can get crazy margins out of it like Clinton/Obama did. See point 2 on how this would be difficult.

That plan, IMO, is highly risky, and requires no mistakes or losses for the Harris campaign.

Blacks have galvanized behind Harris rather than Booker due to Oprah and Michelle and Kamala having so much in common.  Kamala had been going on the view and has a cordial relationship with Walters, Whoopi, Oprah and Michelle

[Mike Thick]

As a Republican, I haven't paid much attention to Harris so I don't understand her appeal.  I know she'd be the first woman and first Indian president, but what are her signature issues?  What has she accomplished in her political career so far?

Would be naive to say that checking demographic boxes does come into play here. However:
 - She is extraordinarily charismatic, even by the ridiculously high standard applied to female candidates
 - She’s in a space on the ideological spectrum where she can plausibly appeal to some progressives without alienating Hillary types
 - She’s a natural fit for key constituencies in the primary, like black voters and suburban women, but her appeal isn’t exclusive to those groups
 - A lot of women, both high-info and low-info, remember her from the Kavanaugh hearings
 - Nobody else in the field has the combo of POC and leftist cred they’d need to actually make a big deal out of her record as AG

[Zaybay]

Here in Georgia with a bunch of organizers and party people on my social media (more of them white than black I might add) and this announcement by far has gotten the biggest and most fervent reaction. She’s sweeping the South.

Same story in CA — word I’m getting is that her organizer and donor support here is nearly unanimous. And CA + the South + black support elsewhere is the nomination.

Couple problems:
1.CA is going to be heavily contested by everyone. She isnt likely to get a simple majority there.
2. The Black vote will be divided between other candidates like Booker, Biden, and Sanders
3. The South is only influential if she can get crazy margins out of it like Clinton/Obama did. See point 2 on how this would be difficult.

That plan, IMO, is highly risky, and requires no mistakes or losses for the Harris campaign.

Sanders is not going to get much of the black vote, so he is not even a factor. If he did abysmally with black voters against a white candidate, he's not going to do much better against a black candidates.

He got around 35% of the Black Vote. Thanks to the power of math, we can see that, if the field is split evenly by 4 candidates(Harris, Booker, Biden, Sanders), then yes, he is a threat.

It also should be mentioned that, in a primary, winning states isnt the objective, its getting the most amount of delegates. The difference between Harris winning AL by 80% and 40% is crucial.

[Izzyeviel]

Here in Georgia with a bunch of organizers and party people on my social media (more of them white than black I might add) and this announcement by far has gotten the biggest and most fervent reaction. She’s sweeping the South.

Same story in CA — word I’m getting is that her organizer and donor support here is nearly unanimous. And CA + the South + black support elsewhere is the nomination.

Couple problems:
1.CA is going to be heavily contested by everyone. She isnt likely to get a simple majority there.
2. The Black vote will be divided between other candidates like Booker, Biden, and Sanders
3. The South is only influential if she can get crazy margins out of it like Clinton/Obama did. See point 2 on how this would be difficult.

That plan, IMO, is highly risky, and requires no mistakes or losses for the Harris campaign.

Sanders is not going to get much of the black vote, so he is not even a factor. If he did abysmally with black voters against a white candidate, he's not going to do much better against a black candidates.

He got around 35% of the Black Vote. Thanks to the power of math, we can see that, if the field is split evenly by 4 candidates(Harris, Booker, Biden, Sanders), then yes, he is a threat.

It also should be mentioned that, in a primary, winning states isnt the objective, its getting the most amount of delegates. The difference between Harris winning AL by 80% and 40% is crucial.

Don't make the rookie mistake of thinking people voted for Bernie because they liked his ideas..

[Zaybay]

Here in Georgia with a bunch of organizers and party people on my social media (more of them white than black I might add) and this announcement by far has gotten the biggest and most fervent reaction. She’s sweeping the South.

Same story in CA — word I’m getting is that her organizer and donor support here is nearly unanimous. And CA + the South + black support elsewhere is the nomination.

Couple problems:
1.CA is going to be heavily contested by everyone. She isnt likely to get a simple majority there.
2. The Black vote will be divided between other candidates like Booker, Biden, and Sanders
3. The South is only influential if she can get crazy margins out of it like Clinton/Obama did. See point 2 on how this would be difficult.

That plan, IMO, is highly risky, and requires no mistakes or losses for the Harris campaign.

Sanders is not going to get much of the black vote, so he is not even a factor. If he did abysmally with black voters against a white candidate, he's not going to do much better against a black candidates.

He got around 35% of the Black Vote. Thanks to the power of math, we can see that, if the field is split evenly by 4 candidates(Harris, Booker, Biden, Sanders), then yes, he is a threat.

It also should be mentioned that, in a primary, winning states isnt the objective, its getting the most amount of delegates. The difference between Harris winning AL by 80% and 40% is crucial.

Don't make the rookie mistake of thinking people voted for Bernie because they liked his ideas..

Already accounted for that. Thanks to polling, we know that Sanders is around 15-20% currently, with much of this support coming from Minority groups, such as AAs. Thanks to the powers of math, we can deduce that, in a 4 way field, he would definitely be a threat to obtaining hegemony in certain states,

[Mike Thick]

Here in Georgia with a bunch of organizers and party people on my social media (more of them white than black I might add) and this announcement by far has gotten the biggest and most fervent reaction. She’s sweeping the South.

Same story in CA — word I’m getting is that her organizer and donor support here is nearly unanimous. And CA + the South + black support elsewhere is the nomination.

Couple problems:
1.CA is going to be heavily contested by everyone. She isnt likely to get a simple majority there.
2. The Black vote will be divided between other candidates like Booker, Biden, and Sanders
3. The South is only influential if she can get crazy margins out of it like Clinton/Obama did. See point 2 on how this would be difficult.

That plan, IMO, is highly risky, and requires no mistakes or losses for the Harris campaign.

1. In CA, she will have exponentially more institutional support than any other candidate. Full stop. Everyone in the California Dems will be working overtime for her. People will be fighting to bump their vote share up, sure, but she starts miles ahead of the field here in pretty much every way except maybe name recognition
2. We’ll have to wait and see, I guess. Probably safe to say that Bernie won’t get 35% of the black vote this time, and (although this is total speculation) I think Harris will have a clear shot at overtaking Biden once they’re on equal footing name rec wise

Additionally, it isn’t like she won’t appeal to anyone outside of California and the South. She can fairly easily make up for not getting huge margins with blacks or in CA with other constituencies elsewhere

[OSR stands with Israel]

Let's be completely honest here, if she gets a decent amount of support, it'll ONLY be because of the boxes she checks for sjw Democrats, not because of anything she's done in her career.

Let's be completely honest here, any woman who runs for anything is ONLY winning because she's an SJW female Democrat who didn't work hard at all for where she is at now.

Not in 2008 , Obama was clearly considered the more SJW candidate compared to Hillary and if Amy Klobacher for example runs this year she wouldn’t be a SJW candidate either .

Notice Klobuchar is the woman everyone cites. Why? Maybe because she's midwestern and that's the type of identity politics everyone likes, as opposed to the dirty identity politics of women on the coasts (especially black ones)?

Um Hillary was considered less SJW than Obama in 2008 . The reason why we call Harris and Gillibrand social justice warriors is because they are social justice warriors.


Also lol in 2012 the Democrats had no problem using midwestern populism to smear Mitt Romney as a out of touch Technocratic Elitist who wants to outsource all your jobs

[Technocracy Timmy]

Thanks to the powers of math, we can deduce that, in a 4 way field, he would definitely be a threat to obtaining hegemony in certain states

He got around 35% of the Black Vote. Thanks to the power of math, we can see that, if the field is split evenly by 4 candidates(Harris, Booker, Biden, Sanders)

Can you be more condescending Mr. Harvard Law?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL

https://twitter.com/KildayMorgan/status/1087394150834733064?s=19

[Zaybay]

Thanks to the powers of math, we can deduce that, in a 4 way field, he would definitely be a threat to obtaining hegemony in certain states

He got around 35% of the Black Vote. Thanks to the power of math, we can see that, if the field is split evenly by 4 candidates(Harris, Booker, Biden, Sanders)

Can you be more condescending Mr. Harvard Law?

Why, of course Mr. Rohrabacher is Safe.

[The Free North]

LOL

https://twitter.com/KildayMorgan/status/1087394150834733064?s=19

Yikes.

This is not Saudi Arabia, if you stop publicly supporting a candidate because you're afraid someone on the internet will say something mean to you, you probably need to revisit why you support that candidate in the first place.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

LOL

https://twitter.com/KildayMorgan/status/1087394150834733064?s=19

I pray that fellow Gillibrand supporters aren't this way.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Here in Georgia with a bunch of organizers and party people on my social media (more of them white than black I might add) and this announcement by far has gotten the biggest and most fervent reaction. She’s sweeping the South.

Same story in CA — word I’m getting is that her organizer and donor support here is nearly unanimous. And CA + the South + black support elsewhere is the nomination.

Couple problems:
1.CA is going to be heavily contested by everyone. She isnt likely to get a simple majority there.
2. The Black vote will be divided between other candidates like Booker, Biden, and Sanders
3. The South is only influential if she can get crazy margins out of it like Clinton/Obama did. See point 2 on how this would be difficult.

That plan, IMO, is highly risky, and requires no mistakes or losses for the Harris campaign.

Zero percent chance Harris doesn't win California by a landslide. Biden might win a couple counties, but she'll crush everyone in SoCal and especially in the Bay Area.

[DrScholl]

Here in Georgia with a bunch of organizers and party people on my social media (more of them white than black I might add) and this announcement by far has gotten the biggest and most fervent reaction. She’s sweeping the South.

Same story in CA — word I’m getting is that her organizer and donor support here is nearly unanimous. And CA + the South + black support elsewhere is the nomination.

Couple problems:
1.CA is going to be heavily contested by everyone. She isnt likely to get a simple majority there.
2. The Black vote will be divided between other candidates like Booker, Biden, and Sanders
3. The South is only influential if she can get crazy margins out of it like Clinton/Obama did. See point 2 on how this would be difficult.

That plan, IMO, is highly risky, and requires no mistakes or losses for the Harris campaign.

Sanders is not going to get much of the black vote, so he is not even a factor. If he did abysmally with black voters against a white candidate, he's not going to do much better against a black candidates.

He got around 35% of the Black Vote. Thanks to the power of math, we can see that, if the field is split evenly by 4 candidates(Harris, Booker, Biden, Sanders), then yes, he is a threat.

It also should be mentioned that, in a primary, winning states isnt the objective, its getting the most amount of delegates. The difference between Harris winning AL by 80% and 40% is crucial.

Harris and Booker probably take up most of the black vote in that scenario, with Biden taking up the most of the remainder leaving Sanders probably with less than 35%. Getting 35% in a two way race is a lot easier than a four way.

And of course delegates are what really matters, but even there Sanders is not much of a threat when it comes to the black vote.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Kamala Harris is more progressive than both Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren would both be replaced by Republicans in the Senate until the scheduled special election (which could take many months). Kamala Harris would be replaced by a democratic politician.

If you support Bernie or Warren over Harris, please keep in mind that they could have months of legislation stifled because they were replaced by a Republican.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I’m seeing a lot of enthusiasm for Kamala on Twitter... from white liberals and media figures. But black people seem to be complaining about her “pro-cop record”. This is just acedotal evidence. Obama didn’t catch fire with the blacks till state’s started actually voting in 2008.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kamala Harris is more progressive than both Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren would both be replaced by Republicans in the Senate until the scheduled special election (which could take many months). Kamala Harris would be replaced by a democratic politician.

If you support Bernie or Warren over Harris, please keep in mind that they could have months of legislation stifled because they were replaced by a Republican.

If they resigned in November right after being elected, they could have a special election scheduled within a month of being sworn in and get a Democrat in that seat quickly. And that's pretty likely, Obama resigned his Senate seat November 16.

[Zaybay]

Here in Georgia with a bunch of organizers and party people on my social media (more of them white than black I might add) and this announcement by far has gotten the biggest and most fervent reaction. She’s sweeping the South.

Same story in CA — word I’m getting is that her organizer and donor support here is nearly unanimous. And CA + the South + black support elsewhere is the nomination.

Couple problems:
1.CA is going to be heavily contested by everyone. She isnt likely to get a simple majority there.
2. The Black vote will be divided between other candidates like Booker, Biden, and Sanders
3. The South is only influential if she can get crazy margins out of it like Clinton/Obama did. See point 2 on how this would be difficult.

That plan, IMO, is highly risky, and requires no mistakes or losses for the Harris campaign.

Sanders is not going to get much of the black vote, so he is not even a factor. If he did abysmally with black voters against a white candidate, he's not going to do much better against a black candidates.

He got around 35% of the Black Vote. Thanks to the power of math, we can see that, if the field is split evenly by 4 candidates(Harris, Booker, Biden, Sanders), then yes, he is a threat.

It also should be mentioned that, in a primary, winning states isnt the objective, its getting the most amount of delegates. The difference between Harris winning AL by 80% and 40% is crucial.

Harris and Booker probably take up most of the black vote in that scenario, with Biden taking up the most of the remainder leaving Sanders probably with less than 35%. Getting 35% in a two way race is a lot easier than a four way.

And of course delegates are what really matters, but even there Sanders is not much of a threat when it comes to the black vote.

I know Sanders isnt going to get 35%, what I said was that, since hes getting 15-25%, which is about half of his performance in 2018, that that would mean he would have about 17-20% of the AA vote, a 1/5. Im not sure how the 2020 primary will play out, but it does mean that Sanders does have some standing with the AA vote, which is why I put him in the top 4, considering the rest of the contenders arent really close to getting such a significant portion of the vote.

And on the delegate thing, its an additive thing. Sanders taking 20%(lets just say) is important when there are other candidates also taking a piece of the pie. He wont win the South, but he is still can take a decent amount of the delegates, which is crucial, since Harris' path relies on blowouts in the South.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Here in Georgia with a bunch of organizers and party people on my social media (more of them white than black I might add) and this announcement by far has gotten the biggest and most fervent reaction. She’s sweeping the South.

Same story in CA — word I’m getting is that her organizer and donor support here is nearly unanimous. And CA + the South + black support elsewhere is the nomination.

Yup. She will win California decisively, California having their primary in March pretty much stifles Cory Booker's chances. After the first Super Tuesday the only viable candidates left in the primary will be Harris, Warren, and one of the white men (hopefully someone not named Sanders or Biden).

[Zaybay]

Here in Georgia with a bunch of organizers and party people on my social media (more of them white than black I might add) and this announcement by far has gotten the biggest and most fervent reaction. She’s sweeping the South.

Same story in CA — word I’m getting is that her organizer and donor support here is nearly unanimous. And CA + the South + black support elsewhere is the nomination.

Couple problems:
1.CA is going to be heavily contested by everyone. She isnt likely to get a simple majority there.
2. The Black vote will be divided between other candidates like Booker, Biden, and Sanders
3. The South is only influential if she can get crazy margins out of it like Clinton/Obama did. See point 2 on how this would be difficult.

That plan, IMO, is highly risky, and requires no mistakes or losses for the Harris campaign.

Zero percent chance Harris doesn't win California by a landslide. Biden might win a couple counties, but she'll crush everyone in SoCal and especially in the Bay Area.

Homestate advantage aint that big, and with so many candidates, its unlikely she gets a landslide, or even a majority.