Kamala Harris 2020 campaign megathread

[Possiblymaybe]

RTs on annnoucement tweet!
Kamala Harris - 49. 8k
Elizabeth Warren - 17.3k
Tulsi Gabbard - 3.1k
Kirsten Gillibrand - 1.3k

[lfromnj]

Here in Georgia with a bunch of organizers and party people on my social media (more of them white than black I might add) and this announcement by far has gotten the biggest and most fervent reaction. She’s sweeping the South.

Same story in CA — word I’m getting is that her organizer and donor support here is nearly unanimous. And CA + the South + black support elsewhere is the nomination.

Couple problems:
1.CA is going to be heavily contested by everyone. She isnt likely to get a simple majority there.
2. The Black vote will be divided between other candidates like Booker, Biden, and Sanders
3. The South is only influential if she can get crazy margins out of it like Clinton/Obama did. See point 2 on how this would be difficult.

That plan, IMO, is highly risky, and requires no mistakes or losses for the Harris campaign.

Zero percent chance Harris doesn't win California by a landslide. Biden might win a couple counties, but she'll crush everyone in SoCal and especially in the Bay Area.

Homestate advantage aint that big, and with so many candidates, its unlikely she gets a landslide, or even a majority.

it depends on the size of state,how connected you are and other factors. eg vermont and deleware should be ez wins for Biden and Sanders. Then for texas Beto has like 99% name rec and 95% favorables among Texas Dems and they all remember what he did for the state democrats.

[henster]

I’m seeing a lot of enthusiasm for Kamala on Twitter... from white liberals and media figures. But black people seem to be complaining about her “pro-cop record”. This is just acedotal evidence. Obama didn’t catch fire with the blacks till state’s started actually voting in 2008.

Just a random twitter anecdote, sadly something like that can be a hangup for a lot of people in the black community moreso than it should be.

https://twitter.com/TheImperialEm_/status/1087480108619837447

[Zaybay]

Here in Georgia with a bunch of organizers and party people on my social media (more of them white than black I might add) and this announcement by far has gotten the biggest and most fervent reaction. She’s sweeping the South.

Same story in CA — word I’m getting is that her organizer and donor support here is nearly unanimous. And CA + the South + black support elsewhere is the nomination.

Couple problems:
1.CA is going to be heavily contested by everyone. She isnt likely to get a simple majority there.
2. The Black vote will be divided between other candidates like Booker, Biden, and Sanders
3. The South is only influential if she can get crazy margins out of it like Clinton/Obama did. See point 2 on how this would be difficult.

That plan, IMO, is highly risky, and requires no mistakes or losses for the Harris campaign.

Zero percent chance Harris doesn't win California by a landslide. Biden might win a couple counties, but she'll crush everyone in SoCal and especially in the Bay Area.

Homestate advantage aint that big, and with so many candidates, its unlikely she gets a landslide, or even a majority.

it depends on the size of state,how connected you are and other factors. eg vermont and deleware should be ez wins for Biden and Sanders. Then for texas Beto has like 99% name rec and 95% favorables among Texas Dems and they all remember what he did for the state democrats.

Exactly. Beto is much more likely to win a 50%+1 majority because of this. Harris, however, doesnt have universal name rec in CA, nor the favorables to get such a majority, alongside the fact that the field will be pretty divided.

[The Free North]

I’m seeing a lot of enthusiasm for Kamala on Twitter... from white liberals and media figures. But black people seem to be complaining about her “pro-cop record”. This is just acedotal evidence. Obama didn’t catch fire with the blacks till state’s started actually voting in 2008.

Just a random twitter anecdote, sadly something like that can be a hangup for a lot of people in the black community moreso than it should be.

https://twitter.com/TheImperialEm_/status/1087480108619837447

The person tweeting this out would have the ethiopian flag with their twitter handle

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I’m seeing a lot of enthusiasm for Kamala on Twitter... from white liberals and media figures. But black people seem to be complaining about her “pro-cop record”. This is just acedotal evidence. Obama didn’t catch fire with the blacks till state’s started actually voting in 2008.

Just a random twitter anecdote, sadly something like that can be a hangup for a lot of people in the black community moreso than it should be.

https://twitter.com/TheImperialEm_/status/1087480108619837447

I think that her being married to a White man will have only a marginal effect among the Black vote. It won't be significant.

[lfromnj]

Here in Georgia with a bunch of organizers and party people on my social media (more of them white than black I might add) and this announcement by far has gotten the biggest and most fervent reaction. She’s sweeping the South.

Same story in CA — word I’m getting is that her organizer and donor support here is nearly unanimous. And CA + the South + black support elsewhere is the nomination.

Couple problems:
1.CA is going to be heavily contested by everyone. She isnt likely to get a simple majority there.
2. The Black vote will be divided between other candidates like Booker, Biden, and Sanders
3. The South is only influential if she can get crazy margins out of it like Clinton/Obama did. See point 2 on how this would be difficult.

That plan, IMO, is highly risky, and requires no mistakes or losses for the Harris campaign.

Zero percent chance Harris doesn't win California by a landslide. Biden might win a couple counties, but she'll crush everyone in SoCal and especially in the Bay Area.

Homestate advantage aint that big, and with so many candidates, its unlikely she gets a landslide, or even a majority.

it depends on the size of state,how connected you are and other factors. eg vermont and deleware should be ez wins for Biden and Sanders. Then for texas Beto has like 99% name rec and 95% favorables among Texas Dems and they all remember what he did for the state democrats.

Exactly. Beto is much more likely to win a 50%+1 majority because of this. Harris, however, doesnt have universal name rec in CA, nor the favorables to get such a majority, alongside the fact that the field will be pretty divided.

 I think she does have close to those numbers but I think its more a generic approval where it probably gives an advantage in a tiebreaker situation between 2 candidates but for Beto as long as he ones of the first 4 states he is basically handed a victory in texas. Also all his voter info he collected during 2018 must be very helpful to him.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

This is so silly. If people are racists and you describe them as such, like it's THE issue for them, because they're racists they would never vote for a black candidate. It is the essence of racism for god's sake.

No it's not. Racism is complex and there are levels to it. You can be racist without being a cross burning zealot who mindlessly hates everyone with black skin.

i would argue exactly opposite. racism really isn't complex. it could have levels to it,but come on..

Well luckily I'm not going to spend time arguing facts with you. There are racist people that voted for Barack Obama. Next....

so smug

You don't have to be a card carrying member of the KKK to be a White supremacist/nationalist.

In fact, most White people who are racist are not apart of any official hate group. Racism has levels to it.

Also, the statement I quoted also explains the other reasons why Obama was able to win a lot of those areas despite him being Black.

[lfromnj]

Has Harris every actually done anything to connect with the black community?

They might consider her but Booker has been much more a pro black candidate.

She comes from San Francisco/Bay area which is mostly white and asian. Only a few black people are there. Meanwhile Booker comes from heavily black Newark so he has some idea on how to connect to black candidates

On criminal justice issues she was not a great candidate for the black community as she had many harsh policies as AG. Meanwhile Booker was one of the largest proponents of CJ reform working strongly with Rand Paul

Booker has also shown much more aptness to visit deep south states atm so this also helps him.

And no having an affair with Willie Brown does not count as connecting with the black community

[Alabama_Indy10]

She stole her slogan from John Morgan's law firm lol

[libertpaulian]

She stole her slogan from John Morgan's law firm lol

Trump stole his from Reagan.  Big whoop.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Exactly. Beto is much more likely to win a 50%+1 majority because of this. Harris, however, doesnt have universal name rec in CA, nor the favorables to get such a majority, alongside the fact that the field will be pretty divided.

Harris is still going to get two times as many votes as the 2nd place finisher in California and gain hundreds of delegates on all the irrelevants. She, Warren, and one or two white male candidates will be the only viable people after Super Tuesday.

Hopefully Biden and Sanders sit their ass down so that someone else has a chance.

[Zaybay]

Exactly. Beto is much more likely to win a 50%+1 majority because of this. Harris, however, doesnt have universal name rec in CA, nor the favorables to get such a majority, alongside the fact that the field will be pretty divided.

Harris is still going to get two times as many votes as the 2nd place finisher in California and gain hundreds of delegates on all the irrelevants. She, Warren, and one or two white male candidates will be the only viable people after Super Tuesday.

Hopefully Biden and Sanders sit their ass down so that someone else has a chance.

Alright, you can believe whatever you want. We will get the results in about a year's time.

[Alabama_Indy10]

She stole her slogan from John Morgan's law firm lol

Trump stole his from Reagan.  Big whoop.

Uhh.. yeah. That's why I put the lol at the end.

[Possiblymaybe]

She stole her slogan from John Morgan's law firm lol

Um no.. The logo is inspired by Shirley Chisholm. First black female presidential candidate.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Dear god this campaign logo is horrid.

I don't know; I think the retro look is good.

The combination of red and yellow is bad, but I agree that the retro look is pleasing.

I agree as well, but she shouldn't have added the "for the people". It doesn't feel genuine. And the yellow is very hard to read. It's such a terrible colour design, but fine, after all it's still a logo. It should have a minor or marginal effect.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I also believe Harris is not going to have a majority of the vote in California. I mean lots of people are still going to be in the race. And California is large and diverse. It's not like all Californians unanimously like Harris. She'll still win the primary, i believe so. I also believe Harris isn't going to have the same level of support among blacks like Obama and even Hillary Clinton did. I believe college-educated whites might even vote in larger numbers for her than blacks. The ceiling for blacks have been broken already, while the ceiling for women (or AA women) has not yet. We will also see multiple people in the race who will appeal to AA voters, like Biden maybe, like Booker maybe, and even Bernie will get a fair share of the AA vote (as name recognition is very important to them, just like Hillary got a lot more AA support in 2016, Bernie will have more in 2020). Sanders will lose support among whites, but will improve his margins among AA's a lot.

If the race turns out to be a Biden vs Harris race, i wouldn't even rule out Biden winning the AA vote, while Harris wins over millennials, modern liberals, the left, college educated whites, women and hispanics while Biden wins non-college educated whites, the AA vote, men, non college educated whites and poorer people, while party loyalists being split over both candidates.

[OneJ]

I’m seeing a lot of enthusiasm for Kamala on Twitter... from white liberals and media figures. But black people seem to be complaining about her “pro-cop record”. This is just acedotal evidence. Obama didn’t catch fire with the blacks till state’s started actually voting in 2008.

No surprise, but it's certainly valid criticism. I've been trying to say that Harris and Booker doing very well among the black vote is no guarantee, especially with how split this primary will be. We have to stop assuming that black candidates will win the black vote and then the nomination or get very close to it. And Twitter is not the best indication of support, but I'm sure you know that, lol. I also assume that the white liberals you're referring to mostly must've been HRC 2016 supporters which would make a lot of sense.

She stole her slogan from John Morgan's law firm lol

Lol. "Morgan and Morgan, For the People."

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Dear god this campaign logo is horrid.

I don't know; I think the retro look is good.

The combination of red and yellow is bad, but I agree that the retro look is pleasing.

I agree as well, but she shouldn't have added the "for the people". It doesn't feel genuine. And the yellow is very hard to read. It's such a terrible colour design, but fine, after all it's still a logo. It should have a minor or marginal effect.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TrevJoseph/status/1087337867192471554?ref_src=twsrc%5...

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I’m seeing a lot of enthusiasm for Kamala on Twitter... from white liberals and media figures. But black people seem to be complaining about her “pro-cop record”. This is just acedotal evidence. Obama didn’t catch fire with the blacks till state’s started actually voting in 2008.

No surprise, but it's certainly valid criticism. I've been trying to say that Harris and Booker doing very well among the black vote is no guarantee, especially with how split this primary will be. We have to stop assuming that black candidates will win the black vote and then the nomination or get very close to it. And Twitter is not the best indication of support, but I'm sure you know that, lol. I also assume that the white liberals you're referring to mostly must've been HRC 2016 supporters which would make a lot of sense.

She and Booker might split the Black male vote. However, she would dominate the Black female vote. Black women vote in higher numbers and are slightly more Democratic leaning than Black men.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Exactly. Beto is much more likely to win a 50%+1 majority because of this. Harris, however, doesnt have universal name rec in CA, nor the favorables to get such a majority, alongside the fact that the field will be pretty divided.

Harris is still going to get two times as many votes as the 2nd place finisher in California and gain hundreds of delegates on all the irrelevants. She, Warren, and one or two white male candidates will be the only viable people after Super Tuesday.

Hopefully Biden and Sanders sit their ass down so that someone else has a chance.

Alright, you can believe whatever you want. We will get the results in about a year's time.

I wonder who’s gonna cry more when Harris defeats Sanders, you or shadows?

[Zaybay]

Exactly. Beto is much more likely to win a 50%+1 majority because of this. Harris, however, doesnt have universal name rec in CA, nor the favorables to get such a majority, alongside the fact that the field will be pretty divided.

Harris is still going to get two times as many votes as the 2nd place finisher in California and gain hundreds of delegates on all the irrelevants. She, Warren, and one or two white male candidates will be the only viable people after Super Tuesday.

Hopefully Biden and Sanders sit their ass down so that someone else has a chance.

Alright, you can believe whatever you want. We will get the results in about a year's time.

I wonder who’s gonna cry more when Harris defeats Sanders, you or shadows?

Considering I dont support Sanders for the 2020 nomination, I would have to say Shadows. But who knows, its a years time, and the filed is still pretty open. For all we know, it will be Booker to nab the spot.

[Joey1996]

I like how everyone crying about "Bernie Bros" are ignoring the overwhelming criticism of Harris online from black activists

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Has Harris every actually done anything to connect with the black community?

They might consider her but Booker has been much more a pro black candidate.

She comes from San Francisco/Bay area which is mostly white and asian. Only a few black people are there. Meanwhile Booker comes from heavily black Newark so he has some idea on how to connect to black candidates

On criminal justice issues she was not a great candidate for the black community as she had many harsh policies as AG. Meanwhile Booker was one of the largest proponents of CJ reform working strongly with Rand Paul

Booker has also shown much more aptness to visit deep south states atm so this also helps him.

And no having an affair with Willie Brown does not count as connecting with the black community

She attended Howard University, which is one of the best HBCUs in the country. Anyways, Kamala is from Oakland.

Oakland has a sizable Black population. Also, The Black Panther Party started in Oakland.

[Possiblymaybe]

I’m seeing a lot of enthusiasm for Kamala on Twitter... from white liberals and media figures. But black people seem to be complaining about her “pro-cop record”. This is just acedotal evidence. Obama didn’t catch fire with the blacks till state’s started actually voting in 2008.

No surprise, but it's certainly valid criticism. I've been trying to say that Harris and Booker doing very well among the black vote is no guarantee, especially with how split this primary will be. We have to stop assuming that black candidates will win the black vote and then the nomination or get very close to it. And Twitter is not the best indication of support, but I'm sure you know that, lol. I also assume that the white liberals you're referring to mostly must've been HRC 2016 supporters which would make a lot of sense.

She and Booker might split the Black male vote. However, she would dominate the Black female vote. Black women vote in higher numbers and are slightly more Democratic leaning than Black men.

“Unlike Booker though, Harris will say no to dark money. Multiple outlets report that she plans on rejecting assistance from super PACs as well as corporate dollars.”