California Predictions

[Citizen James]

I know two posters have already made their predictions in Another thread, but I'm curious as to anyone else following the propositions.  Given the wide difference between the polling compaines (field and SUSA), there is a lot of speculation here.

For background information, there is the Official voter guide, and the League of women voters guide

I have a limited knowledge about the tv campaigns, as I only watch one show on local networks (Jeopardy).   

My predicitions (fwiw):

73: Parental notification.  Passes narrowly (51-49).  Though there will be a lot of knee jerk votes against it from the more ferverent of the pro-choicers, I think the proponents of parental notification are more orginized.  The PAC opposing the 'Arnold' measures isn't touching this one with a ten foot pole.

74: Teacher Tenure.  Fails solidly (41-59).  Teachers are generally well regarded in California, and thier union is one of the most powerful in the state. Linking the highly unpopular governor Schwartzenegger to the measure pretty much dooms it.

75: Union dues.  Fails solidly (39-61).  See 74, but add Firefighters and Police into the list of opponents.

76: State spending and school funding.  Fails(45-55).  This benefits a little from the frustration about the budget problems, but loses favor with those who don't want school funding slasher nor want to give the governor more power over the budget.

77: Redistricting.  Fails closely  (47-53).  People know the state is gerrymandered to the hilt, but it's the devil you know against the devil you don't, and the implied linkage to Arnold weakens it signifigantly.

78: Drug discounts (industry):  Fails  (46-54).  Game theory at work here, the divide and conquer method will insure both measures of failing, though the better funded one (this one) will do better.

79 Drug discounts (labor) Fails (44-56). Same reasoning as 78.

80: Electricity reregulation.  Fails strongly (29-71).  A lack of knowedge kills this on outright.  People tend to vote against measures they don't understand.  Plus, a number of voters will likely be voting no across the board as a protest against the special election.

Anyone else?

[Moooooo]

Thanks for the analysis.  I really cannot make a prediction.  The polling has been ALL OVER THE PLACE.  SUSA has most of the prop's passing while Field Poll and others have all of them failing.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I predict that everything fails.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Thanks for the analysis.  I really cannot make a prediction.  The polling has been ALL OVER THE PLACE.  SUSA has most of the prop's passing while Field Poll and others have all of them failing.

The problem is that no one has a good model for the turnout.

Should be interesting.

[The Duke]

73 will pass strongly
74 will fall just short
75 will squeek by
76 will get demolished
77 will get demolished
78 will get demolished
79 will get demolished
80 will get pwned
John Campbell will win big in CA-48
Jerry Sanders will win small for SD Mayor

[Moooooo]

Ford how has Villaraigosa been as Mayor so far?  I know you werent a fan of his at first.  Has he won you over at all?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Numeric predictions for yes vote

73: 48%
74: 46%
75: 44%
76: 37%
77: 41%
78: 44%
79: 43%
80: 35%


 

[The Duke]

Ford how has Villaraigosa been as Mayor so far?  I know you werent a fan of his at first.  Has he won you over at all?

I actually ran into Antonio Villaraigosa at City Hall yesterday.  Whe I get the pictures back I'll post them (and by that I mean I'll email them to someone who knows how to post them for me).

He's been mixed.  He's got a program to fill 35,000 potholes, so I'm happy about that.  He's joined some other City Officials in asking Sacramento to end the restrictions that prevent traffic relief on our main West Side freeway 9the 405).  So those are good things.

On the negative side, he still kisses La Raza's rear end endlessly.

The next big issue is going to be homelessness.  Chief Bratton has a plan to reduce homelessness in LA, modeled on what he did in New York.  I saw this coming up in my last days in the Council Office, when some homeless who live in the Hollywood Hills started a wildfire.  They're everywhere in the Hills, and the Hills are extremely flammable, nothing but sage and $5 million mansions.  A bad combo.  They're in the parks at night sleeping on benches.  They panhandle like crazy now.  Bratton is smart to stamp it out, but I think he'll need Antonio's backing to pull it off, because theere's a lot of opposition from ACLU types.  If Antonio comes out and supports Bratton's efforts, I'll probably vote for him just on that alone.  But I doubt he will, he's been fairly silent so far.

Big test for the Mayor in the next year on this issue.

[Moooooo]

Sounds good so far.  I agree the homless plan is a big next step.

Why is the ACLU bitching about a plan to help clean up the homeless?  Its not like the city is going to put them on trucks and dump em' in the desert.

[The Duke]

Sounds good so far.  I agree the homless plan is a big next step.

Why is the ACLU bitching about a plan to help clean up the homeless?  Its not like the city is going to put them on trucks and dump em' in the desert.

Many people believe that:

1. The homeless have a right to live as they choose, and if they choose to be vagrants what business of it is the City's?

2. Homelessness is society's fault, therefore the police cannot ever solce the problem, only mask its symptoms.

3. Because homelessness is society's fault, it is wrong to "punish" the homeless when they are not in the wrong.

It's common in some of the bigger cities in America to have people that think like this.  I bet dazzleman and MarkDel can tell you about New York, which had the same kinds of complaints when Bratton instituted a nearly identical program there.

[Sam Spade]

The polling on all of these has been wacky.  These are merely educated guesses, taking the polling and the likelihood of strange turnout models in a low-turnout election, as this one will be:

Numeric predictions:
73: 52%
74: 47%
75: 48%
76: 39%
77: 42% (this measure would help Democrats gain a couple of CDs in the state, though they would have to moderate a bit)
78: 40%
79: 40%
80: 35%

[Sam Spade]

Should add:

Campbell will win special election with 51% of the vote.

[The Duke]

Should add:

Campbell will win special election with 51% of the vote.

Only 51%?  He almost got 51% in the primary.

[Sam Spade]

Should add:

Campbell will win special election with 51% of the vote.

Only 51%?  He almost got 51% in the primary.

Ok, it might be a little higher than that, but I've got my reasons why.

The Democrat will get most of Brewer's vote by default and Gilchrest will pull a little under 20%.

I see roughly about a 51%-31%-18% finish.

[The Duke]

I worked at the final So Cal bus stop on Arnold's tour.  It was a good event, but it started late.  I had to leave and take one of the campaign strategists to the airport, so that was kind of cool.  I'll be at the after-election party in Beverly Hills.

I might get to be one of the people on TV who stands behind the Governor when he gives his victory/concession speech at night.  So watch out for that.  Then again, I might not get to do that.

[Moooooo]

I worked at the final So Cal bus stop on Arnold's tour.  It was a good event, but it started late.  I had to leave and take one of the campaign strategists to the airport, so that was kind of cool.  I'll be at the after-election party in Beverly Hills.

I might get to be one of the people on TV who stands behind the Governor when he gives his victory/concession speech at night.  So watch out for that.  Then again, I might not get to do that.

How devistating do you think it will be if all of his prop's fail?  Or if only prop 73 passes?  Ive read a couple articles that state he's doomed in 2006 if doest 'win' in 2005.  What do you think?

[The Duke]

I worked at the final So Cal bus stop on Arnold's tour.  It was a good event, but it started late.  I had to leave and take one of the campaign strategists to the airport, so that was kind of cool.  I'll be at the after-election party in Beverly Hills.

I might get to be one of the people on TV who stands behind the Governor when he gives his victory/concession speech at night.  So watch out for that.  Then again, I might not get to do that.

How devistating do you think it will be if all of his prop's fail?  Or if only prop 73 passes?  Ive read a couple articles that state he's doomed in 2006 if doest 'win' in 2005.  What do you think?

That seems a little hyperbolic to me.  If all the propositions fail, then the world will only be different in one substantive way: The Unions will be bankrupt.  They've spent so much money on this campaign that they're under a crushing level of debt and will not be able to put up much of a fight next year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It'd be nice if the redistricting one passes. Don't think it will though.

[The Duke]

It'd be nice if the redistricting one passes. Don't think it will though.

77 is good as dead.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I worked at the final So Cal bus stop on Arnold's tour.  It was a good event, but it started late.  I had to leave and take one of the campaign strategists to the airport, so that was kind of cool.  I'll be at the after-election party in Beverly Hills.

I might get to be one of the people on TV who stands behind the Governor when he gives his victory/concession speech at night.  So watch out for that.  Then again, I might not get to do that.

How devistating do you think it will be if all of his prop's fail?  Or if only prop 73 passes?  Ive read a couple articles that state he's doomed in 2006 if doest 'win' in 2005.  What do you think?

While Arnold supports Props 73 and 78, they're not specifically his Props. Arnold's Props are 74-77.

[Blank Slate]

I know two posters have already made their predictions in Another thread, but I'm curious as to anyone else following the propositions.  Given the wide difference between the polling compaines (field and SUSA), there is a lot of speculation here.

For background information, there is the Official voter guide, and the League of women voters guide

I have a limited knowledge about the tv campaigns, as I only watch one show on local networks (Jeopardy).   

My predicitions (fwiw):

73: Parental notification.  Passes narrowly (51-49).  Though there will be a lot of knee jerk votes against it from the more ferverent of the pro-choicers, I think the proponents of parental notification are more orginized.  The PAC opposing the 'Arnold' measures isn't touching this one with a ten foot pole.

74: Teacher Tenure.  Fails solidly (41-59).  Teachers are generally well regarded in California, and thier union is one of the most powerful in the state. Linking the highly unpopular governor Schwartzenegger to the measure pretty much dooms it.

75: Union dues.  Fails solidly (39-61).  See 74, but add Firefighters and Police into the list of opponents.

76: State spending and school funding.  Fails(45-55).  This benefits a little from the frustration about the budget problems, but loses favor with those who don't want school funding slasher nor want to give the governor more power over the budget.

77: Redistricting.  Fails closely  (47-53).  People know the state is gerrymandered to the hilt, but it's the devil you know against the devil you don't, and the implied linkage to Arnold weakens it signifigantly.

78: Drug discounts (industry):  Fails  (46-54).  Game theory at work here, the divide and conquer method will insure both measures of failing, though the better funded one (this one) will do better.

79 Drug discounts (labor) Fails (44-56). Same reasoning as 78.

80: Electricity reregulation.  Fails strongly (29-71).  A lack of knowedge kills this on outright.  People tend to vote against measures they don't understand.  Plus, a number of voters will likely be voting no across the board as a protest against the special election.

Anyone else?

Although I don't live in California, or San Francisco, I think I will post my predictions for the California Propositions and San Francisco (seven) Propositions here, instead of final predictions.  And I agree with you on you on your  predictions, with slightly different numbers, except for Proposition 73.  I just have a feeling that there will be more people who will be against this Proposition in more liberal areas of California (Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, etc.) then in more conservative areas -- also like the other Propositions it will be dragged down due to people voting NO on everything due to anger at Governor Arnold.

Here's my predictions:

73  (PARENTAL NOTIFICATION, ABORTION):

YES  43%
NO   57%

74  (PUBLIC SCHOOL TENURE)

YES  41%
NO   59%

75  (UNION DUES)

YES  39%
NO   61%

76 (SCHOOL FUNDING)

YES  44%
NO   56%

77 (REDISTRICTING, INDEPENDENT)

YES  48%
NO   52%

78 (DRUG DISCOUNTS, INDUSTRY BACKED)

YES  39%
NO   61%

79  (DRUG DISCOUNTS, LABOR BACKED)

YES  48%
NO   52%

80 (ELECTRICITY REGULATION)

YES  29%
NO   71%

San Francisco Propositions:

A  ($246 million BOND FOR CITY COLLEGE CAPITOL IMPROVEMENTS)

YES  71%
NO   29%

B (LONG TERM FINANCING FOR STREET MAINTENANCE AND IMPROVEMENTS)

YES  46%
NO   54%

C (INSULATE ETHICS COMMISSION FROM POLITICS)

YES  20%
NO   80%

D (ROLL BACK MUNI REFORMS

YES  10%
NO   90%

F (SHIELD FIRE DEPARTMENT FROM BUDGET EFFICIENCY)

YES   5%
NO   95%

G (CLEAR WAY FOR ACCESS TO NEW GOLDEN GATE PARK UNDERGROUND GARAGE)

YES  60%
NO   40%

H (PROHIBIT CITY RESIDENTS FROM POSSESSING HANDGUNS)

YES  36%
NO   64%

I ("POLICY STATEMENT" AGAINST MILITARY RECRUITING IN SCHOOLS)

YES  35%
NO   65%

I forgot one more election tomorrow in California, that I will go ahead and predict here:

SAN DIEGO MAYOR

Surf shop owner and city councilwoman Donna Frye (D)      57%
San Diego police chief Jerry Sanders (R)                               43%


 

[The Duke]

76 is not really a school funding reform, it is a general budget process reform.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It'd be nice if the redistricting one passes. Don't think it will though.

77 is good as dead.

So that means that people are going to vote to keep this?



Why? Lead in the drinking water or... ?

[The Duke]

It'd be nice if the redistricting one passes. Don't think it will though.

77 is good as dead.

So that means that people are going to vote to keep this?



Why? Lead in the drinking water or... ?

Republican legislators told Republicans to vote no, Democratic legislators told Democrats to vote no.  So both will obey the command from the mothership.

[Moooooo]

SurveyUSA. 11/4-6. 3,600 Likely voters. MoE 2.2%. (10/29-31 results)

Prop 73 -- Proposition 73 requires that physicians notify the parent of a pregnant minor at least 48 hours before performing an abortion. If the special election were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, would you vote Yes on Proposition 73? Or would you vote No?

Yes 51 (55)
No 47 (44)

Prop 74 --  Proposition 74 extends the probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to 5 years, and makes it easier to dismiss teachers with unsatisfactory performance evaluations. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 74? Or would you vote No?

Yes 48 (49)
No 51 (50)

Prop 75 -- Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written consent of union members. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 75? Or would you vote no?

Yes 45 (50)
No 54 (49)

Prop 76 -- Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues. The Governor would be granted new authority to reduce state spending, [including school funding,] during certain fiscal situations. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 76? Or would you vote no?

Yes 39 (49)
No 59 (49)

Prop 77 -- Proposition 77 changes the way California draws boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts. District boundaries would be drawn by a panel of retired judges and approved by voters in a statewide election. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on 77? Or would you vote no?

Yes 41 (42)
No 56 (56)