If Trump loses 45/52 nationwide a such map is fairly likely, to be honest you are probably underestimating Harris is key states, for example in a such scenario I think Harris wins WI by five points (something like 52/47) and PA by six points (something like 52.5/46.5), especially with Wolf as the running-mate.
Concerning the House which seats do you see flipping in a such hypothesis ?
Minnesota 1 and 8, the two who went Republican in 2018. Stauber and Hagedorn are vulnerable. Texas 23 should also be a possible pick-up as Will Hurd only won by an inch last time (I hope Gina Ortiz Jones runs again). And maybe Amy McGarth in Kentucky can win a rematch in 2020. Same with JD Scholten challenging Steve King plus the second district in Kansas that was close in 2018. Maybe a few others if the Democrats lose two or three.
I don’t see how democrats take back the two Minnesota seats, Trump will almost certainly win them by a high single digit margin at least and he will provide enough coattail to both republican congressmen. The same is true for McGrath and Scholten, both of them lots in 2018 despite a democratic wave, Trump will win both seats by a double digit margin unless he lose by 15 points nationwide, I don’t see how McGrath and Scholten, in the hypothesis where they run, can win
KS 2nd is unlikely to flip for the same reason, anyway the republican congressman will benefit from the incumbency advantage.
