[any democrat] vs Trump Map

[Heebie Jeebie]

Come on, guys.  You all know the choice of nominee is mostly irrelevant to the final vote totals.  Regardless of who's on the ticket, the map is going to look like this:



The only exception is if some clearly unqualified nut like Tulsi Gabbard gets the nomination.  Then things might  look different...but maybe not!

Am I wrong?

[elcorazon]

why is NC more dem than PA, WI, FL? Are we all assuming less voter suppression or what?

[Heebie Jeebie]

why is NC more dem than PA, WI, FL? Are we all assuming less voter suppression or what?

Demographic change and recent election performance.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Come on, guys.  You all know the choice of nominee is mostly irrelevant to the final vote totals.  Regardless of who's on the ticket, the map is going to look like this:



The only exception is if some clearly unqualified nut like Tulsi Gabbard gets the nomination.  Then things might  look different...but maybe not!

Am I wrong?

There's a clearly unqualified nut in the White House right now so I'm not sure why you think that would be a negative for Tulsi..

[Heebie Jeebie]

There's a clearly unqualified nut in the White House right now so I'm not sure why you think that would be a negative for Tulsi..

There are different standards for Democrats.

[TML]

There is NO WAY Trump will win WI & PA against even a semi-competent Democratic candidate.

[Heebie Jeebie]

There is NO WAY Trump will win WI & PA against even a semi-competent Democratic candidate.

That's what most thought in 2016.  But both those states are getting older, poorer, and less educated--i.e. more Republican.  Hillary poured more resources into Pennsylvania than almost any other state and still lost decisively.  Last year in a massive anti-Trump wave, Dems only squeaked out the barest of majorities in Wisconsin's state-wide races.  Democrats will have an even harder time there when there's an actual name at the top of their ticket for Wisconsin voters to choose between.  Right now, polling looks good for Democrats, but a contested election will depress those number significantly.

[TML]

There is NO WAY Trump will win WI & PA against even a semi-competent Democratic candidate.

That's what most thought in 2016.  But both those states are getting older, poorer, and less educated--i.e. more Republican.  Hillary poured more resources into Pennsylvania than almost any other state and still lost decisively.  Last year in a massive anti-Trump wave, Dems only squeaked out the barest of majorities in Wisconsin's state-wide races.  Democrats will have an even harder time there when there's an actual name at the top of their ticket for Wisconsin voters to choose between.  Right now, polling looks good for Democrats, but a contested election will depress those number significantly.

How about asking Senators Vukmir and Barletta, as well as Governor Wagner?

[Grassroots]

Tulsi Gabbard is an antonym for unqualified nut.

[Heebie Jeebie]

How about asking Senators Vukmir and Barletta, as well as Governor Wagner?

Incumbency has advantages.

[morgankingsley]

Come on, guys.  You all know the choice of nominee is mostly irrelevant to the final vote totals.  Regardless of who's on the ticket, the map is going to look like this:



The only exception is if some clearly unqualified nut like Tulsi Gabbard gets the nomination.  Then things might  look different...but maybe not!

Am I wrong?

While I doubt this is a mega set in stone map, it could possibly happen

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

There is NO WAY Trump will win WI & PA against even a semi-competent Democratic candidate.

That's what most thought in 2016.  But both those states are getting older, poorer, and less educated--i.e. more Republican.  Hillary poured more resources into Pennsylvania than almost any other state and still lost decisively.  Last year in a massive anti-Trump wave, Dems only squeaked out the barest of majorities in Wisconsin's state-wide races.  Democrats will have an even harder time there when there's an actual name at the top of their ticket for Wisconsin voters to choose between.  Right now, polling looks good for Democrats, but a contested election will depress those number significantly.

Pennsylvania isn't. It's pretty much switching over to Virginia trends now. The shrinking population of older, whiter rurals trending D is producing a smaller new net R increase than the growing population of Greater Philadelphia is producing a net D increase. It's essentially the same demographic profile as a combined Virginia-West Virginia--which is to say it goes narrowly R in 2016, clearly blue in 2018, and increasingly blue from here on out. Wisconsin is shakier, but given the lean of the nation as a whole, should vote D in 2020. Long term, Michigan actually has the most worrying demographics. NC needs it's rural population to shrink and urban population to grow for another cycle, whereas Florida is the perpetual swing state.

[Frenchrepublican]

I don’t see how trump carries WI and PA and loses NC.
If the election was held today I think Trump would win NC by two and would lose WI by two points and PA by four points