Out of the major declared candidates, who wins South Carolina?

[RaphaelDLG]

Sequel to Blue3's threads.  I don't think we need to go much further down the calendar than this, but I think this is an interesting question, though I predict it'll also have a dominant winner.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Kamala easily gets 65% of the vote.

[RaphaelDLG]

Kamala easily gets 65% of the vote.

Believable.  What if we include Booker?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Harris. Probably by a bigger margin than Clinton 2016.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Kamala easily gets 65% of the vote.

Believable.  What if we include Booker?

That's where this gets dicey. They will either split the black vote and throw it to another candidate, or one would triumph over the other as the candidate who has the most appeal to voters of color.

[SunSt0rm]

Harris, but it depends how you perform in Iowa, NH and Nevada. If she gets bad results there she will probably be defeated in SC.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Harris wins, and with an absolute majority of the vote. Warren and Gabbard on 2 and 3.

[SN2903]

Harris

[Heebie Jeebie]

Believable.  What if we include Booker?

I think it's somewhat unlikely they will both still be in by the time we reach South Carolina. One of them, probably Booker, is going to concede after Iowa or New Hampshire. I figure that by the time we get to South Carolina, it will be a three-way race:  either Harris-Gillibrand-Castro or Booker-Warren-McAuliffe.

[SCNCmod]

Harris, but it depends how you perform in Iowa, NH and Nevada. If she gets bad results there she will probably be defeated in SC.

This is the correct answer.  

Gabbard has ZERO shot at a top 3 finish in SC. (Gillibrand & Warren aren't too far behind Gabbard in this respect).

Either Kamala, Biden, or Beto will win SC.

Beto could have an outside shot regardless of how he does in Iowa or NH... whereas Kamala & Biden would need to be near the top in either Iowa or NH (in order to actually win SC).  I still think there is a chance that Biden will bow out before the primaries start... bc I think his big lead will dwindle once the election gets in full swing. I also think that Booker will split off part of the AA vote in SC (I think he will be naturally stronger with Southern AA's than Kamala... but Kamala will likely have more momentum coming in to SC.)  But if Harris is not top 2 in Iowa & not top 2 in NH... She will not win SC (although she may still finish 2nd or 3rd in SC).

But in the end I think its between Beto & Kamala... and Beto ends up winning SC.  He will be very strong in the Charleston area (the new Congressman from Charleston is a BIG Beto fan)... and I think he will be strong in the Columbia area.  Beto (and Castro could as well...but he may not be much of a factor at that point) will be able to connect with ppl in SC better than most of the candidates, due to being more of a southerner than the rest of the field... Which is why John Edwards was able to win SC (Edwards= 45%, Kerry=30%,  Sharpton, Dean, Clark, etc all below 10%) ... not just because he was born there- it was because as a southerner he could best connect (better than Kerry & Dean, ... and Sharpton was not able to rally the AA vote b/c he wasn't near the top in Iowa or NH).

[MAINEiac4434]

Harris. Probably by a bigger margin than Clinton 2016.

This is almost certainly impossible just by virtue of there being more choices in 2020 than 2016, especially for the Black Church Lady demographic.

[SCNCmod]

Harris wins, and with an absolute majority of the vote. Warren and Gabbard on 2 and 3.

Harris could win- be she definitely will not have a majority (Even Obama just barely had a majority of the vote in SC).    Warren & Gabbard will not be in the top 3 in SC, Gabbard will not even be in the top 5 in SC.

If Booker tries for a last push in SC (assuming he doesn't finish strong in IA or NH)... I think he will be able to get 20% of the AA vote (which is probably close to 10% of the total vote)... that could have a big impact on Harris ... if she is in a tight battle vs Beto.

[Spark]

Harris with a plurality

[lfromnj]

Harris. Probably by a bigger margin than Clinton 2016.

This is almost certainly impossible just by virtue of there being more choices in 2020 than 2016, especially for the Black Church Lady demographic.

I think Harris wins it but lol at people thinking that she is a goddess of the black community.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Harris wins, and with an absolute majority of the vote. Warren and Gabbard on 2 and 3.

Harris could win- be she definitely will not have a majority (Even Obama just barely had a majority of the vote in SC).    Warren & Gabbard will not be in the top 3 in SC, Gabbard will not even be in the top 5 in SC.

If Booker tries for a last push in SC (assuming he doesn't finish strong in IA or NH)... I think he will be able to get 20% of the AA vote (which is probably close to 10% of the total vote)... that could have a big impact on Harris ... if she is in a tight battle vs Beto.

Out of the "already declared candidates". Beto and Booker haven't declared yet.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

Kamala Harris