What would have been your final prediction for past Presidential Elections

[OSR stands with Israel]

Here's the polling data: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections#

Ill go from 1976 on:

1976:

Carter/Mondale 317
Ford/Dole 221


1980:

Reagan/Bush 382
Carter/Mondale 156

1984:

Reagan/Bush 522
Mondale/Ferraro 16


1988:

Bush/Quayle 419
Dukakis/Bentsen 119


1992:

Clinton/Gore 373
Bush/Quayle 165


1996:

Clinton/Gore 403
Dole/Kemp 135


2000:

Bush/Cheney 290
Gore/Lieberman 248

2004:

Bush/Cheney 300
Kerry/Edwards 238

2008:

Obama/Biden 353
McCain/Palin 185

2012:

Obama/Biden 281
Romney/Ryan 257

PV/EV Split as well


2016:

Clinton/Kaine 322
Trump/Pence 216

[HillGoose]

I'm going to do from 2004 on.

2004 -

John Kerry/ John Edwards - 277 EV, 48.3% PV
George Bush/ Dick Cheney - 261 EV, 49.0% PV

I would have thought Kerry would pull it off, but lose the popular vote. Truly a horrible timeline here.

2008 -

Barack Obama/Joe Biden - 320 EV, 51.9% PV
John McCain/Sarah Palin - 218 EV, 46.2% PV

Honestly I would have thought McCain would have outperformed in certain areas where he didn't end up doing so, same with Obama. Overall Obama ends up losing ground but only slightly, definitely not enough to change the result of the election. I think that year I could tell it was going to be a big Democratic win anyway, but I didn't think it would be as big as it was.

2012 -

Barack Obama/ Joe Biden - 288 EV, 49.1% PV
Mitt Romney/ Paul Ryan - 250 EV, 48.8% PV

I remember this election. I was surprised how well Obama performed throughout the night, this was probably about my expectation when I sat down to watch TV that night. I thought Obama would win but also thought it would be by a much narrower margin, and would either lose or come close to losing the popular vote to Romney.

2016 -

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine - 324 EV, 48.9% PV
Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 214 EV, 45.3% PV

I expected a Clinton win that night, which is why I went to bed at like 10 PM pretty confident that Trump was going to win, because even by that point Trump was over performing everywhere where I thought Clinton needed to win, as well as much lower turnout than 2012. When I woke up at 4 AM and looked at my phone to check the time and the results I was proven right about my earlier feeling.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I created this map and posted it on a Belgian forum on 7 november 2016, but thought NC was going to vote for Trump.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Bump

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm just going to do 2016: The day of the election I had a gut feeling that Trump was going to win every state he did, minus Michigan and Wisconsin, but with the addition of New Hampshire.

[here2view]

Only doing 2016 because this is the one I can remember

Hillary Clinton 302
Donald Trump 236

I don't remember popular vote percents, but in hindsight I'd guess Clinton 50% and Trump around 46%.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Only doing 2016 because this is the one I can remember

Hillary Clinton 302
Donald Trump 236

I don't remember popular vote percents, but in hindsight I'd guess Clinton 50% and Trump around 46%.

I’m not asking only ones you can remember I’m just asking hypothetically if you could make it back the. With the polling data I linked

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

For 2000, I figured it would all come to down to Florida. I remember Gore saying it would come down to a single voter per precinct there. Well, that was quite an understatement.

I had Gore winning PA, Bush winning OH, and the smaller swing states would be such that Florida would make the difference. I would have given Gore fewer of the smaller swing states than he actually won, but enough that it would have still come down to Florida.

[S019]

I'll go from 1936 on

Before 2004 I used national polls, 2004 and after, I used statewide polls

1936:

1940:

1944:

1948:

1952:

1956:

1960:

1964:

1968:

1972:

1976:

1980:

1984:

1988:

1992:

1996:

2000:

2004:

2008:

2012:

2016: