As of Jan 23rd, chance of O'Rourke jumping in?

[History505]

?

[Heebie Jeebie]

On the one hand, he's not really doing anything else important at the moment.  On the other hand, he's got to recognize that he wouldn't stand a chance, and that the quickest way to wreck his own image would be to subject himself to the scrutiny of a Democratic primary.  My bet is that he doesn't pull the trigger, that he stays in Texas.

[Zaybay]

Not sure, TBH. His hype has clearly died down, and his polling numbers have started to decrease. He seems to have the intention of running, otherwise he wouldnt do these roadtrips around the country, so I would say he does.

Do I think he does well? No.

[Heebie Jeebie]

otherwise he wouldnt do these roadtrips around the country, so I would say he does.

Maybe he's just angling for a show on the Travel Channel?  Or he wants to be the new host of Parts Unknown [R.I.P. Anthony Bourdain ]

[Grassroots]

65%.

He would do very well his he ran. The question is if he wants too, which may be a yes seeing what he's doing right now.

[SteveRogers]

On the one hand, he's not really doing anything else important at the moment.  On the other hand, he's got to recognize that he wouldn't stand a chance, and that the quickest way to wreck his own image would be to subject himself to the scrutiny of a Democratic primary.  My bet is that he doesn't pull the trigger, that he stays in Texas.

But would it be any better for his brand to stay in Texas and lose again to John Cornyn in 2020?

[Heebie Jeebie]

But would it be any better for his brand to stay in Texas and lose again to John Cornyn in 2020?

Not really.  If I were advising him, I'd say find a leadership job in the Texas Democratic Party, maybe focusing on Latino outreach or something.  At the same time, campaign for and try to ingratiate yourself with whomever the next presidential nominee turns out to be and lobby for a high profile job in the next administration.  Then challenge Cruz again in 2024, when winning should be more than doable.  O'Rourke is young--he has time to work his way up.  He could be ready for the national ticket by 2028 if he plays his cards right.

[MAINEiac4434]

He missed his moment. He’s gonna be a footnote to Kamala and the inevitable Bernie campaign.

I’m leaning no.

[President Johnson]

He missed his moment. He’s gonna be a footnote to Kamala and the inevitable Bernie campaign.

I’m leaning no.

I increasingly think so, too.

I think Harris will be the nominee, and I'd be happy with her.

[Deleted User #4049]

Yes, but he was the first of many flavors of the month in the 2020 primary.

[MAINEiac4434]

He missed his moment. He’s gonna be a footnote to Kamala and the inevitable Bernie campaign.

I’m leaning no.

I increasingly think so, too.

I think Harris will be the nominee, and I'd be happy with her.

Especially since he’s been fairly silent since the “dental cleaning” video.

[henster]

Starting to feel like he won't, think he's smart enough to read the field and realize there's not much of a path for him.

[SN2903]

Do not think he runs.

[Cold War Liberal]

I'm starting to lean away from supporting Beto for President and leaning towards thinking he (or Julian Castro) should run against Cornyn in 2020.

[Senator-elect Spark]

5%. He's a non-entity and won't be in the primary.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Any momentum he has lost in the last few weeks could be regained by announcing. If we get to the end of March, I’d say he’s not running.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'd say at least 50%.

[wesmoorenerd]

Getting lower. He's still my top pick if he runs but it's possible that his hype has died out.

Harris and Gillibrand are inching closer and closer to my coveted #1 spot.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Any momentum he has lost in the last few weeks could be regained by announcing. If we get to the end of March, I’d say he’s not running.

[Mr. Smith]

55% methinks

[Progressive Pessimist]

50-50 for sure, along with Biden and Sanders. But at this point he may see so many people running and figure "why not?" Seriously, he's more relevant and high-profile than Marianne Williamson, and he probably would still have a shot once he started campaigning and recovered from any slump in excitement that he may be currently experiencing.

[beaver2.0]

Not sure, TBH. His hype has clearly died down, and his polling numbers have started to decrease. He seems to have the intention of running, otherwise he wouldnt do these roadtrips around the country, so I would say he does.

Do I think he does well? No.

Though I'm not sure he does badly.

[Sir Mohamed]

I was 75% sure he's going to run four weeks ago, but I get more and more skeptical on a run. As of now, Lean No. Maybe 30-40% chance he still jumps in. Not that's late, but he's shown no signals for a while despite multiple urging. And as it seems, the hype came down over recent weeks.

[Sirius_]

I doubt it, his five minutes of fame seem to be over, and he doesn't have much going for him tbh. Loosing a midterm election isn't a good basis for a presidential campaign.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

He missed his moment. He’s gonna be a footnote to Kamala and the inevitable Bernie campaign.

I’m leaning no.

I increasingly think so, too.

I think Harris will be the nominee, and I'd be happy with her.

I agree with both of you.