AL-SEN: It’s Tuberville

[Skye]

GOP candidate expects Roy Moore to announce Senate bid in June

AL GOP: *sweats nervously*

[SnowLabrador]

Hopefully he is the nominee. Then McConnell has to defend him, even if he does end up winning.

[MT Treasurer]

Are Madison and Mobile counties Tilt/Lean D regardless of the R nominee? Maddox kept it pretty close without the attention and money Jones will have.

Jones isn’t going to lose Madison against any Republican, but Mobile is probably only Tilt or Lean D with Byrne.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Go Roy Moore, Jones will win if he is the nominee.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Almost any Alabama Republican is going to vote just like Moore would, so him winning the nomination is basically a no lose situation for the Democrats. either he loses and gifts Jones a second term, or he wins and Democrats can bash the GOP over the head with him for years to come.

[One Term Floridian]

Are Madison and Mobile counties Tilt/Lean D regardless of the R nominee? Maddox kept it pretty close without the attention and money Jones will have.

Jones isn’t going to lose Madison against any Republican, but Mobile is probably only Tilt or Lean D with Byrne.

Absent another scandal for the AL GOP, Mobile should be Safe R with Byrne. Having family in Mobile, I can comfortably say that his constituent outreach is pretty popular down there

[KaiserDave]

Almost any Alabama Republican is going to vote just like Moore would, so him winning the nomination is basically a no lose situation for the Democrats. either he loses and gifts Jones a second term, or he wins and Democrats can bash the GOP over the head with him for years to come.

This^^^

I think if Moore had won, Dems would have won FL Sen and a few more house seats. Imagine the insanity of Senator Moore. That being said, I hope Doug gets a miracle.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Holy mother of ratios

https://mobile.twitter.com/RealJudgeMoore/status/1133440070785142784

[SnowLabrador]

Roy Moore, if nominated, would beat Jones this time. The dynamics of a special election are completely different than those of a Presidential election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jones is the underdog, in this race, except if Roy Moore is the nominee, which would be a tossup.

[ElectionsGuy]

Roy Moore, if nominated, would beat Jones this time. The dynamics of a special election are completely different than those of a Presidential election.

Yes, but I wouldn't say for sure. If Roy Moore does somehow become the nominee and end up losing, I wouldn't be surprised. Republican voters deserve to lose again for nominating that pitty excuse of a man.

[Pandaguineapig]

I really doubt Moore gets nominated again, especially with the runoff system

[One Term Floridian]

I really doubt Moore gets nominated again, especially with the runoff system

Ohhh you never know. It's Alabama after all

[Pandaguineapig]

I really doubt Moore gets nominated again, especially with the runoff system

Ohhh you never know. It's Alabama after all

The same polls that show him with a small lead in the first round also show him getting crushed in the runoff

[OSR stands with Israel]

Jones has a +6 approval rating, which is more than Manchin does (+5) and he managed to win not only in 2018 but in 2012 even as Obama got thumped in WV. Granted, Alabama doesn’t have the same lingering remnants of Democratic legacy that have helped Manchin, but I still wouldn’t count a popular incumbent out completely. I doubt he loses by as much as Heitkamp, especially not with Moore as the nominee again. Then he might even be a slight favorite, or at least the race would be a toss-up more or less given the presidential year turnout. After all, is it not possible that some of the Alabama Republicans turning out for Trump might just leave their Senate ballots blank rather than vote for Moore?

West Virginia is not Alabama

[TarHeelDem]

Trump opposed Moore for the nomination in 2017 and he still won it anyway. I have no faith that the Alabama GOP will turn him down in 2020. The bottom line is that he speaks to their hopes and dreams in a way none of the other candidates even come close to doing.

[HarrisonL]

Even Roy Moore will win in a presidential year. Jones and Gardner are both DOA.

[decunningham2]

Even Roy Moore will win in a presidential year. Jones and Gardner are both DOA.

Yup. I doubt Jones even hits 40% with a competent Republican running against him. His approvals aren't anywhere near good enough to get close to winning.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

How big of a anti Trump landslide would it take to give Jones a shot to hold the seat, would a 8-10 point national victory be enough?

[lfromnj]

How big of a anti Trump landslide would it take to give Jones a shot to hold the seat, would a 8-10 point national victory be enough?

A 12 point landslide with Roy Moore as the opponent, with incredible black turnout might give Jones a 10% chance.

[Yellowhammer]

How big of a anti Trump landslide would it take to give Jones a shot to hold the seat, would a 8-10 point national victory be enough?

Maybe a 15 point national victory

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

How big of a anti Trump landslide would it take to give Jones a shot to hold the seat, would a 8-10 point national victory be enough?

Maybe a 15 point national victory

If Moore isn't the GOP nominee, then yeah it would probably take a 15-point D landslide for Jones to hang on. if Moore is the nominee, Jones would have a fair shot regardless of the national environment.

[mcmikk]

I think this race will probably end up anywhere from 56-43 to 59-40.

[TrumpBritt24]

Roy Moore announcement on Thursday - https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/18/politics/roy-moore-senate-run-2020-alabama/index.html

[Sir Mohamed]

Roy Moore announcement on Thursday - https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/18/politics/roy-moore-senate-run-2020-alabama/index.html

LoL... this dude never goes away, right? Probably the AL GOP is stupid enough to nominate him again.