Millennials are moving to the Midwest in higher numbers

[Scottholes 2.0]

Minnesota had the highest influx of Millennials in the U.S., with 63 percent of arrivals falling into the 20- and 30-something age bracket, Census data from 2017 shows. The Midwest seems to be rebounding with millennials, which I think will slow the R trend in the region. I think millennials are looking to the Midwest for a cheaper COL with the same quality of life as coastal states. The chart below is data from 2017.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

MS is oddly high for all the talk of millennials moving out.

[dpmapper]

I don't think that's the correct interpretation.  Just because 40% of new MS residents are millennials doesn't mean that there are many millennials moving to MS, there are just few people moving to MS of all ages.  And the chart definitely doesn't say anything about who, or how many, are moving out. 

There are undoubtedly lots more millennials moving to Florida than to Arkansas, it's just that there are TONS of non-millennials moving to Florida, so the percentage of new Florida residents that are millennials is low.  So with the midwest, it could be that there are a lot of new millennial residents... or it could just be that there are not that many new non-millennial residents.  It's impossible to tell just from this chart.  I would bet it's closer to the latter. 

[Technocracy Timmy]

I’m sure the snowflake generation will manage antarctic levels of freezing. What a glorious cost for cheaper cost of living.

[TDAS04]

Lousiana?  I suppose New Orleans isn't much of a retirement destination.  Not surprising, I guess.

[Ban my account ffs!]

The population in MN is overturning...baby boomers are moving out in significant numbers to warmer climes and being replaced by millennials because jobs are available.  The 25-40 age groups have been expanding while the 50-64 age group has been shrinking.

[RINO Tom]

Surprised Colorado isn't higher (I know at least five people who moved to Denver after graduation), but I am guessing there are a lot of non-Millennial (specifically Hispanic?) incomers to throw off the percentage?

[Ban my account ffs!]

It looks as though population losers and slow-growth states tend to have higher percentages of incoming Millenials.

This suggests that, far from these states being success stories in any sense, this is more a matter of failing to attract people from every other age group. (I notice that dpmapper comes to the same conclusion above.)

People in their 20s and 30s are more likely to make interstate moves, so it makes sense that the background level of mobility would be higher for them even in states that have few pull factors working in their favor. If we were looking at net migration figures by age group, probably the geography would look radically different.

I've only looked at Minnesota in detail, and as I hinted at above... the state has been attracting millennials for pretty much the entire decade.  But baby boomers have been leaving.  There were more baby boomers leaving than millennials arriving until 2016 but this trend has reversed.

Here is the breakdown of changes between a 5 year age cohort in 2017 minus the preceding 5 year age cohort in 2012 (the same birth years)

05-09:  +10,693
10-14:  +6394
15-19:  +3830
20-24:  +1769
25-29:  +14,205
30-34:  +17,171
35-39:  +6387
40-44:  -320
45-49:  -3296
50-54:  -7724
55-59:  -12,617
60-64:  -17,320
65-69:  -21,158
70-74:  -20,301
75-79:  -19,608
80-84:  -22,425

This does not adjust for deaths so obviously the larger numbers above age 65 reflect elderly deaths as well as out-migration.

This pattern shows modest changes in migration but it does show one thing clearly:  Minnesota is attracting young families and young professionals... hence the growth in both 25-39 age groups as well as the increasing growth rates of younger children vs. older children.

[Adam Griffin]

Only tangentially related, but this article has a lot of stats about where Millennials live and at what concentrations (some of it is dated, though).

Not a whole lot of overlap between where Millennials are the largest share of the population and where they're the largest share of those new arrivals:

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[jimrtex]

I don't think that's the correct interpretation.  Just because 40% of new MS residents are millennials doesn't mean that there are many millennials moving to MS, there are just few people moving to MS of all ages.  And the chart definitely doesn't say anything about who, or how many, are moving out. 

There are undoubtedly lots more millennials moving to Florida than to Arkansas, it's just that there are TONS of non-millennials moving to Florida, so the percentage of new Florida residents that are millennials is low.  So with the midwest, it could be that there are a lot of new millennial residents... or it could just be that there are not that many new non-millennial residents.  It's impossible to tell just from this chart.  I would bet it's closer to the latter. 

Similarly, there would be few older people moving to MN, because old bones do not like cold weather.

[jimrtex]

Only tangentially related, but this article has a lot of stats about where Millennials live and at what concentrations (some of it is dated, though).

Not a whole lot of overlap between where Millennials are the largest share of the population and where they're the largest share of those new arrivals:

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Military bases and Universities attract persons of a certain ago.

Maybe Bakersfield is becoming an LA Exurban area.

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[/quote]

Lots of old people or lack of jobs for anyone, let alone new job seekers.

[cvparty]

strange set of data to use as evidence. shouldn't you look at absolute numbers (at least relative to each state's population) rather than percentages?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

looks like they are playing strategic to reinforce Democratic control over the Midwest to prevent Trump from winning those states again.

[pbrower2a]

MS is oddly high for all the talk of millennials moving out.

High birth rate common in the Mountain and Deep South. Most of the indlux in such states is from neighboring states.

[Scottholes 2.0]

strange set of data to use as evidence. shouldn't you look at absolute numbers (at least relative to each state's population) rather than percentages?

I suppose.

[DC Al Fine]

strange set of data to use as evidence. shouldn't you look at absolute numbers (at least relative to each state's population) rather than percentages?

Agreed. It dramatically understates millennial movement in popular retirement destinations like Florida and Arizona, while overestimating it in cold places that old people don't move to like Minnesota.

[Technocracy Timmy]

looks like they are playing strategic to reinforce Democratic control over the Midwest to prevent Trump from winning those states again.