Remaining right-wing American suburbs

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Shelby, AL
Lexington, SC
SC Upstate
Collin and Denton, TX
Hamilton, IN
WOW Counties, WI
Williamson, TN
Rankin, MS
Delaware, OH
Cherokee and Forsyth, GA
Jefferson, LA

Trump should win all those by double digits in 2020.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Shelby, AL
Lexington, SC
SC Upstate
Collin and Denton, TX
Hamilton, IN
WOW Counties, WI
Williamson, TN
Rankin, MS
Delaware, OH
Cherokee and Forsyth, GA
Jefferson, LA

Trump should win all those by double digits in 2020.

Try again

Trump won Collin County by 17 points in 2016

He said 2020

Collin won’t swing by 8 points in 2020

Romney won it by 31

Cruz won it by 6 in a Democratic Wave year, and the Democratic candidate in that case had the ability to spend all his resources in one state.

National Dems wont have that luxury and if 2020 isnt a wave Trump will win TX by 7-11 points in 2020 in most cases.


I think Trump will also win Tarrant by 5-6 points

Everyone knows that Beto-Collier-Nelson-Olson voters for Trump are incredibly common.

No offense, OSR, but you know absolutely nothing about Collin County.

Lmao you know nothing about midterms vs Presidential elections

Clearly people who voted for a highly visible, very progressive challenger candidate for Senate are going to turn around and vote for Trump two years later. You can keep denying trends, but voters don’t care about that. You’re a joke.

So you think Texas will be within 3 points even if the national popular vote is only Democrats + 3 or +4.

LMAO

Apparently you love embarrassing yourself. You probably predicted that Cruz would've won by 8-10% before the election, and you're already showing signs of being stupidly overconfident about 2020. You can keep typing "LMAO" until your grave; it won't make you any more correct.

It's more about WHO shows up to vote.  While these midterms had unusually high turnout for a midterm, it was still lower than presidential turnout in most places.  Some people in the president's party choose not to vote in midterms for whatever reason.  And, there are some people who aren't that ideological.  There were certainly some Trump-Beto voters, and some of those will vote for Trump again.  Texas might eventually be a swing state, but it isn't there yet.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

There are still a huge number, and Atlas is being delusional about suburban trends as usual.

The majority of those are trending D though. They're still super Republican, but how is Atlas delusional about suburban trends for recognizing they are happening, even if they may not flip all those counties?

Meanwhile, how many non-college white filled counties are trending D? Oh right, practically zero.

The point is that "trending" is somewhat of a birdwalk to answering this question and comes across like "yeah, Hamilton County, IN still voted super-duper Republican, but not super-SUPER-duper Republican!" ... cool?  This is just asking if there are still very Republican suburbs, and anyone who takes the time to look into that question knows the answer is an emphatic yes.  Also, if you are a Democrat who goes from Williamson County, TN by 46.5% in 2012 to 35.00% in 2016, how long and how far do you really think that trend is going to go?  *TRENDS* usually only last so long before something else shakes up the party dynamics.

I looked in depth at Williamson County when full precinct results became available, and I actually found that Republicans held up extremely well here in 2018.  Other than the Senate race (which was closer statewide than the environment would have suggested), Republicans pretty much matched Trump's two-party share of the vote in 2018, despite being in a D+8 environment instead of a D+2 one.  And, the classic wealthy suburban parts trended Republican relative to both the nation and the state as a whole from 2016 to 2018.  The only area of Williamson County that trended slightly Democratic would be the areas that are just becoming part of suburbia after having been rural a few years ago.

See my whole analysis here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=309563.0