Remaining right-wing American suburbs (user search)
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Remaining right-wing American suburbs (search mode)
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Author Topic: Remaining right-wing American suburbs  (Read 3056 times)
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


« on: January 24, 2019, 11:11:07 AM »

Shelby, AL
Lexington, SC
SC Upstate
Collin and Denton, TX
Hamilton, IN
WOW Counties, WI
Williamson, TN
Rankin, MS
Delaware, OH
Cherokee and Forsyth, GA
Jefferson, LA

Trump should win all those by double digits in 2020.

Try again


Trump won Collin County by 17 points in 2016



He said 2020

Collin won’t swing by 8 points in 2020

Cruz only won Collin by 6 and Trump is more unpopular in Texas than Cruz is. Paxton also only won by 8 points.
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Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2019, 05:22:10 PM »

Waukesha, WI
Washington, WI
Ozaukee, WI

There are still a huge number, and Atlas is being delusional about suburban trends as usual.

Atlas is mostly delusional about Wisconsin. They are in denial that the demographic trends of the state (i.e. an aging, blue-collar, and less educated population) greatly favor the GOP. It doesn't help that Milwaukee is shrinking while its surrounding suburban counties in bold are actually trending Republican. For example: In the 2006 WI gubernatorial election, the R candidate won 64% of the vote in Waukesha County, whereas Scott Walker won 66%. In Ozaukee County in the 2006 gubernatorial race, the R candidate won 62% of the vote, whereas Walker won 64% of the vote share this year. Thus, one can reasonably conclude that WOW IS the only suburban area that's trending R. The D trend between 2014 - 2018 in WOW is temporary. The Republicans in those three counties will come back home for the GOP once Trump leaves office.

Also, Dane is barely growing and Milwaukee doesn't turnout for elections.


Except in two straight election cycles (2016 and 2018) Ozaukee, Waukesha and all of the inner suburbs in Milwaukee County (Wauwatosa, Whitefish Bay, etc.) substantially trended Democratic. Also you are comparing an election where the Democrat won by about 7 points in 2006, to one where the Democrat only won by a point (2018). It was the Republican collapse in the Milwaukee suburbs as to why Evers was able to win. Example: Walker won his hometown of Wauwatosa by 4.68 points in 2014 to losing it by 16.17%. That's nearly a 21 point swing! Most of the other major suburban cities saw big drops in Republican support. Waukesha, 17.57% towards the Democrats, New Berlin, 11.83%, Brookfield, 17.77%, Menomonee Falls, 13.18%. These are horrific numbers for Republicans in what is their base region. Is it possible that this all reverts back after Trump is gone? Maybe, but generally its hard to put the genie back in the bottle.

Also the idea that Dane County isn't growing, when its the fastest growing county in the state by a country mile, is laughable. Also Milwaukee County had its best midterm turnout in a long time in 2018.
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