California Republican Brian Maienschein (AD-77) switches to the Democrats

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/LaurelRosenhall/status/1088490297380679680

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is he a liberal Republican in the vein of Javits and Mathias who can say that is fed up with the party of Trump, or is he a run-of-the-mill conservative who does this solely out of political expediency?

[Holmes]

He was re-elected last year by 0.4%.and his district is moving away from Republicans. That might have been a big factor in this decision.

[Politician]

The CAGOP is dead, news at 11.

[Zaybay]

Seems to me like political opportunism. Though he may survive a bit longer, the top-two primary may end his career.

[RINO Tom]

Is he a liberal Republican in the vein of Javits and Mathias who can say that is fed up with the party of Trump, or is he a run-of-the-mill conservative who does this solely out of political expediency?

Considering he was a Republican under Trump's first two years, Romney, McCain, Bush 43, Dole, Bush 41, etc., I think it's safe to say he's no Javits and Mathias and just wants to save his own (electoral) ass.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

He was endorsed by a major LGBT group. He's not a conservative.

[RINO Tom]

He was endorsed by a major LGBT group. He's not a conservative.

I know social issues seem to be literally all you define people with, but there is a HUGE middle ground between having an ideology similar to Javits and being a conservative who supports gay marriage and gets an endorsement in a local race.  That should be obvious.  If he's as pro-gay rights as they come but votes for tax cuts and deregulation, yes: he is very clearly a conservative.  I do not know much about this particular person, but to claim he's not a conservative just because an LGBT group endorsed him is, well, really dumb.

[Canis]

Is he a liberal Republican in the vein of Javits and Mathias who can say that is fed up with the party of Trump, or is he a run-of-the-mill conservative who does this solely out of political expediency?

Considering he was a Republican under Trump's first two years, Romney, McCain, Bush 43, Dole, Bush 41, etc., I think it's safe to say he's no Javits and Mathias and just wants to save his own (electoral) ass.

Yeah he won only by 607 votes last year he may be liberal on one set of issues but hes clearly just trying to save himself

[Nyvin]

California is heading down the road of Rhode Island or Kansas,  where politicians take up the dominant party's name just for the sake of having easier access to power.

[RINO Tom]

Is he a liberal Republican in the vein of Javits and Mathias who can say that is fed up with the party of Trump, or is he a run-of-the-mill conservative who does this solely out of political expediency?

Considering he was a Republican under Trump's first two years, Romney, McCain, Bush 43, Dole, Bush 41, etc., I think it's safe to say he's no Javits and Mathias and just wants to save his own (electoral) ass.

Yeah he won only by 607 votes last year he may be liberal on one set of issues but hes clearly just trying to save himself

LOL, yeah, like all party switchers with some virtue signaling speech about how "I didn't leave the party, the party left me" ... he will magically get eight times more liberal than he ever was as a Republican now.

California is heading down the road of Rhode Island or Kansas,  where politicians take up the dominant party's name just for the sake of having easier access to power.

Yep, I agree with this.  There are certain states where a state party has such a toxic brand AND is missing a relatively high floor (like we see with Republicans in Virginia or Democrats in Mississippi or something) where it really just does make more sense to follow the "if you can't beat 'em, join (and try to change) them" strategy.  CA appears to be well on its way to that type of setup.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Oh this was the guy Sunday Gover lost to by half-a-point.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hopefully he'll still lose in the primary.

[DrScholl]

That leaves five Republicans in Clinton districts (AD-35, AD-36, AD-55, AD-68 and AD-72).

[Progressive Pessimist]

The CAGOP is dead, news at 11.

Its corpse is being dug up and having penises drawn on it at this point.

[smoltchanov]

Natuaral step, as he was the most (and - by far) socially moderate Republican in legislature remaining after Baker's defeat. BTW - Baker (who was even more moderate) would easily won too, would she run as "business Democrat" instead of Republican. Almost all of "Bay Area" is a "scorched Earth territory" for Republicans now, similar to "rural white South" for Democrats. So, "business Democrats" essentially replaced Republicans (usually - moderate, sometimes - even liberal, in the past) as alternative to "progressives" in this area.

[Gass3268]

Hopefully he'll still lose in the primary.

The top two system might save him here.

[Sir Mohamed]

Might be for political gain/intention to keep his seat, but I give him credit for the enlightenment regardless.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

FF Move.

Now Janet Nguyen should follow along and run against Diep.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hopefully he'll still lose in the primary.

The top two system might save him here.

Ugh, yeah.

I've always been terrified of Republicans gaming the system by running as ~Independents or even Democrats. We need to stay vigilant and warn our voters against these frauds.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Hopefully he'll still lose in the primary.

The top two system might save him here.

Ugh, yeah.

I've always been terrified of Republicans gaming the system by running as ~Independents or even Democrats. We need to stay vigilant and warn our voters against these frauds.

California is rapidly reaching one-party status as a state, similar to what the South was prior to the Goldwater Deep South Landslide in 1964.

The name of the game in CA politics is to be a Democrat, whether you are one at heart or not. 

[Brittain33]

California is rapidly reaching one-party status as a state, similar to what the South was prior to the Goldwater Deep South Landslide in 1964.

The big difference is that CA is doing it with universal suffrage and laws making voting as accessible as possible, whereas the Solid South was only possible with limited suffrage excluding nearly all black voters and a good number of white voters from participating.

It's a problem when the national Republican party is so far beyond what is acceptable in 80% of California that voting Democratic is the only recourse.

[President Johnson]

Freedom fighter

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Oh I must have missed this one! I see RINO Tom is still insecure about his own party and how it’s logically inconsistent to be a social liberal Republican. Some things never change .

I guess that’s just Cunningham, Diep, Chen, Choi and Lackey left in Assembly seats won by Clinton. And there’s a few more marginal Trump seats that Trump will probably lose in 2020 as well. There are four left in the State Senate in seats won by Clinton: Chang, Wilk, Moorlach and Bates. The first three are all up in 2020. I feel pretty confident in saying that the CA GOP hasn’t quite hit rock bottom just yet.

I think the Assembly seats will be stubborn for Dems. They might win one or two of those.

As for the Senate, I wouldn't be surprised if Dems win a clean sweep next year by defeating Chang, Wilk, and Moorlach. Morrell in SD-23 is a Trump+3 district with no clear party registration advantage. He could theoretically lose as well.

Dems ceiling in 2020 is D+4 for a 33-7 Senate. That would leave them with 1 seat in the presidential year Senate class.