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March 18, 2019, 06:28:40 pm
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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  Do Republicans have a better of winning the House or the Presidency in 2020?
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Question: Do Republicans have a better of winning the House or the Presidency in 2020?
The House   -6 (24%)
The Presidency   -19 (76%)
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Total Voters: 25

Author Topic: Do Republicans have a better of winning the House or the Presidency in 2020?  (Read 168 times)
Nichlemn
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« on: January 25, 2019, 07:51:40 am »

Argument for the House: There appears to be a larger pro-GOP bias in the House map than the Electoral College, such that a 2% Dem PV win would likely win them the Presidency, but lose the House. Also, it appears that House elections are becoming more nationalised.

Argument for the Presidency: Primarily incumbency advantage. (Consider how Republicans did a couple of points better in 2012 and 2016 than they dd in the Presidency).
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