Trump's most likely path to 270?

[MT Treasurer]

My map:

275 - 263

[Politician]

Ok, more seriously:

[RINO Tom]

If he loses Arizona - which looks >50% right now - he's losing.  Period.

[mgop]

Ok, more seriously:

that second map, that's it

[Horatii]

Only if he replaces Pence with Charlie Baker

[MT Treasurer]

If you change OH to blue and NM and CO to red on your map, you’ll get what many posters here unironically believe is his path of least resistance, lol.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

1. The Pennsylvania Route (274)

2. The Wisconsin Route (270)

3. The Wisconsin + Pennsylvania Route (273)

[adrac]

that second map, that's it

Yep, this is it. The most likely tipping point states are Wisconsin and Arizona.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

that second map, that's it

Yep, this is it. The most likely tipping point states are Wisconsin and Arizona.

Pennsylvania is also fairly likely because it has 20 EVs.

[Cashew]

Wisconsin is Trump's only hope.

[Big Abraham]

Wisconsin is Trump's only hope.

Pretty much. It's gonna have to be through the Midwest again because I don't see anywhere else where he can make up for it.

[MT Treasurer]

Wisconsin is Trump's only hope.

I wouldn’t discount the possibility of Michigan voting to the right of Wisconsin.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Wisconsin is Trump's only hope.

I wouldn’t discount the possibility of Michigan voting to the right of Wisconsin.

That's crazy talk.

[TDAS04]

Wisconsin is Trump's only hope.

I wouldn’t discount the possibility of Michigan voting to the right of Wisconsin.

That's crazy talk.

They weren’t that far apart last time.

[Del Tachi]

FL + NC + PA + AZ puts him at 280

I'm assuming IA, OH, GA, and ME-02 start out as at least "Likely Trump"

[Heebie Jeebie]

This, just flip Arizona and/or North Carolina.

[Big Abraham]

Please, people. North Carolina will not vote to the left of Florida or Pennsylvania

[adrac]

that second map, that's it

Yep, this is it. The most likely tipping point states are Wisconsin and Arizona.

Pennsylvania is also fairly likely because it has 20 EVs.

Pennsylvania's urban and suburban centers are much stronger than Wisconsin's, so I think it's safer for the Democrat.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Replicating his 2016 map, with the possibility of flipping New Hampshire. That's probably about as good as it can get for him, not that it matters, because he still would have won.

[Xing]

Winning two of AZ, MI, and WI, since I think PA is the most likely to flip.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

looks something like this

[Skill and Chance]

Wisconsin is Trump's only hope.

I wouldn’t discount the possibility of Michigan voting to the right of Wisconsin.

Very plausible.  While less likely, I also think the possibility of Florida voting to the right of at least one of NC and GA is very underrated.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump's path was clearly WI, thats gone now, with Evers as GOV

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

that second map, that's it

Yep, this is it. The most likely tipping point states are Wisconsin and Arizona.

Pennsylvania is also fairly likely because it has 20 EVs.

Pennsylvania's urban and suburban centers are much stronger than Wisconsin's, so I think it's safer for the Democrat.

Safe-er, but not safe. Trump has been much better for the PA economy than for WI. Steel tariffs have helped PA, while Trump's trade war has harmed Harley-Davidson, and the Foxconn scam is turning off a lot of the WCW voters.

WI is more likely than PA to go to Trump, but PA as a tipping point is still not all that unlikely.

[GP270watch]

 GOP has good ground game and voter turnout in Wisconsin and Florida that make these tossup states states advantageous R. Democrats have to overcome this with a surge of infrequent voters.

 Democrats might still be a few cycles away from Arizona and Georgia. Democrats should also solidify Nevada and Colorado and build on strengths there.