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  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Blind Jaunting, Apocrypha)
  One America Divided: 2020 Election
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terp40hitch
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« Reply #50 on: February 18, 2019, 01:57:48 pm »

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Gavin Newsom Endorses Kamala Harris; Joe Cunningham Endorses Joe Biden
Febuary 23rd, 2020

CNN- Momutum is continuing to grow for Kamala Harris who just won the Nevada caucus last night. Harris earned the endorsement of Eric Holder, the former Attorney General, in last nights victory rally in Nevada. Holder previously endorsed Andrew Gillum and he continued to praise the former mayor but told the press that it just wasn't Gillum's time. Holder wasn't the only new endorsement for the junior Senator from California. Harris now is endorsed by the Governor of California Gavin Newsom, an ally of Harris for a while in California politics.

Newsom's endorsement of Harris is another blow to Representative Eric Swalwell's bid for president. Swalwell in lue of falling polls in early states, early in the race, decided to withdrawal efforts in New Hampshire and South Carolina and place all efforts in California and Nevada. In Nevada, Swalwell only earned two delegates and seventh place. Now the only road left for Swalwell to the nomination is through a win in California and he needs all the support he can get. Swalwell did earn the endorsement of his predecessor in Congress, Pete Stark, and State Senator Kevin De Leon who came close to taking down Dianne Feinstein, the senior senator in California. Still, it may not be enough especially as much of the California Democratic establishment has supported Harris.

While Swalwell's bid for president continues to fall apart and Harris surges ahead, Joe Biden has also started to gain some new endorsements ahead of the crucial South Carolina primary. Biden has earned the endorsement of Joe Cunnigham, the freshmen Democrat in a pretty-heavy Republican seat. Cunningham beat a pro-Trump Republican who toke out Congressman Mark Sanford in the primary. Cunnighman announced his endorsement of fellow blue-dog Democrat, Joe Biden, in a rally inside of his district. Cunningham also announced his endorsement of the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for Senate, Jamie Harrison. Cunningham said that he supported Biden because 'seats like mine flipped because we were able to win over independents and Republicans with our moderate message in 2018 and that is how we will in 2020 too. The candidate with a moderate message that can win is Joe Biden. He has my full endorsement and I will do everything to help him win not only the South Carolina primary but everything I can to help him win the White House."

Cunningham went on to warn of nominating a progressive candidate with radical policies like Harris. Cunningham stated, "If we nominate someone like Harris or Sanders then we will lose the presidency, the American truly have concerns with their policies and nominating someone like that might cost us a few house seats too especially mine in a pretty-red area."



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Bennet Endorsed By Udall and Polis
Febuary 24th, 2020

Washington Post- In the normally uncompetitive caucus of Colorado is receiving a lot of attention from two favorite sons. The two favorite sons, former Governor John Hickenlooper and Senator Michael Bennet, formed a 'Colorado Pact' between the campaigns that have made the state all so important for the state. The pact will make whoever loses Colorado drop out and endorse the other favorite son as both Bennet and Hickenlooper are allies and friends.

Bennet has now started to pull out all the stops for a win in Colorado and has basically only campaigned in Colorado since Nevada and will till Super Tuesday. Hickenlooper, on the other hand, has been travel between Colorado and Oklahoma knowing if he just wins Colorado, it won't be enough for him to catch up to other candidates like Kamala Harris.

Bennet has started to win over some supporters in Colorado including two important Democratic politicians in the state. Former Senator Mark Udall who lost reelection in 2014 and Governor Jared Polis who is a former Congressman both endorsed Bennet who they worked with on Capitol Hill. Polis and Udall both are going campaign with Bennet in Colorado ahead of Super Tuesday.




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Bill Weld Suprises Trump Again in Nevada
Febuary 25th, 2020

The Green Papers- President Donald Trump has once again lost some of his momentum but has further gained a lead in delegates. In Nevada, Trump won with a substantial margin. At least according to the President, he did win with just over sixty percent of the vote but just losing thirty or forty percent of your base could potentially be devasting to a general election campaign. President Trump continues to claim victories from these early primary wins and in a rally, he held in Florida tonight said, "Have you heard of that loser Bill Weld, 0-4. Bill can't win more than thirty or forty percent of the vote and all those press in the crowd are calling him the winner. What a joke!"

Weld had spent a substantial amount of time and gained the endorsement of former Governor Brian Sandoval after having a strong performance in New Hampshire. Weld even was boasting his performance in Nevada in South Carolina after his beating in the primary where President Trump won more than eighty percent of the vote. Weld did do well in Nevada and surprised many pundits again with his results and won multiple delegates in the state.


Official Nevada Republican Caucus on Febuary 25th, 2020
30 Delegates
Donald Trump: 63.4% (19)
Bill Weld: 36.6% (11)


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Gabbard Touts Military Record in South Carolina
Febuary 27th, 2020

The Post and Courier- In the heavily military state, Representative Tulsi Gabbard is boasting about her military record. Gabbard had a strong performance in Iowa and has yet been able to build on her momentum coming off her strong performance but she hopes she can once again revitalize her momentum in a strong finish in South Carolina. In an interview with Gabbard, she stated, "I hope my military record will help win over veterans because we haven't had a veteran in the White House since the 1990s. I hope I can also win over women especially since I believe I can be a strong influence for young girls, not every day do you see a strong woman in politics especially in the presidency."

Gabbard has toured the state since the New Hampshire primary and has taken occasionally trips to Super Tuesday states including her birthplace in American Somoa. Gabbard isn't too far back but she is not in the top tier of candidates either where Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, and Cory Booker are. Booker, Biden, and Harris are all in a tight fight for first place in the state and at this point, anyone could win.



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South Carolina is Booker Country
Febuary 29th, 2020

The New York Times- At the begging of the night, the New York Times was told that if Booker didn't take home the prize tonight then he would suspend his campaign and endorse whoever won. Booker even seemed very surprised as early results started to come in and even before the official results came were in, Booker left his suite to start writing a victory speech. His crowd became bigger and bigger as more results started to come in and media from around the state started leaving both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris's victory rallies.

Though Harris had momentum coming out of Nevada, Booker and Biden had been building an organization in South Carolina. Biden and Booker had also been gaining endorsements to set them on top including the two Representatives. In some senses, this was also a victory for Biden even if he came in second. Biden had trouble keeping up with the other candidates as they rose and fell but this has turned around his campaign that had been falling in the rankings in results.

While Booker had a tremendous victory in South Carolina and Biden has started to turn around his poor news, Harris, on the other hand, could not claim victory. Harris was expecting a victory and she even admitted that this was not what she hoped when talking with the press outside her rally. This is not even close to the end of her campaign though by any means. Harris has had a strong performance in most early states and is close to becoming first in delegates.

According to one of the creators of the circus, "going into Super Tuesday, Booker has big [momtum], Biden and Harris has the money while Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Hickenlooper, Brown, Gabbard and so on are all trying to win their first or second wins."


Official Democratic South Carolina Results on Febuary 29th, 2020
59 Delegates
Cory Booker: 20.8% (17)
Joe Biden: 14.6% (14)
Kamala Harris: 14.5% (14)
Terry McAullife: 10.2% (9)
Stacey Abrams: 9.7% (6)
Tulsi Gabbard: 6.5% (4)
Andrew Gillum: 6.3% (3)
Julian Castro: 4.4% (1)
Beto O'Rourke: 2.3%
Elizabeth Warren: 2.1%
Bernie Sanders: 1.6%
Sherrod Brown: 1.5%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1.1%
Amy Klobuchar: 1.0%
John Delaney: 1.0%
Bill De Blasio: 0.7%
John Hickenlooper: 0.5%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.4%
Michael Bennet: 0.3%
Jeff Merkley: 0.2%
Steve Bullock: 0.2%
Eric Swalwell: 0.1%


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Abrams, Gillum, Buttigieg, Delaney, Bullock Ends Campaigns
March 1st, 2020

NBC News- Not everyone in South Carolina had the night they wished for like Cory Booker and Joe
Biden. Multiple campaigns were ended tonight after poor results in South Carolina or their campaigns have had bad result after bad result and it was not turned around by South Carolina. With a total of five campaigns ending after tonight, the field of candidates is now down to seventeen which is almost half of the original total.

The first to leave the race was long-shot Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana. Buttigieg has had bad results in the first four early contest with his highest being three percent in Iowa. Buttigieg does have one delegate to the convection and that could help influence some candidates to get his endorsement in a very close race at the convection. Buttigieg started to call his biggest donors this morning to tell them of his decision. Buttigieg was planning on having a rally in South Carolina but canceled in the afternoon and sent an email to the press that he would drop out and in a rally next week in South Bend who announced his plans for the future. Many believe Buttigieg will join the Indiana-02 race since Buttigieg has told media that he will be keeping most staff that worked in his headquarters in Indiana.

The Governor of Montana, Steve Bullock, decided he would end his campaign right before the polls officially closed in South Carolina according to his press sectary. Bullock was hoping for a better performance in Iowa and after a dismal showing there, Bullock looked towards Nevada. On the day of the Nevada Caucus, Bullock was prepared to concede the race but Bullock decided to not concede right before he was going on stage. It wasn't till today that Bullock realized there were few paths for him to the nomination. By the time the exit polls showing him last and second to last, Bullock knew the time to leave the race was today. Bullock announced in his home state that he would leave the race and endorsed Joe Biden.

Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum both hoped for good performances tonight but both failed to capture any of the first three places. Gillum had a rough week starting with Eric Holder switching his endorsement to Kamala Harris and then ending with getting in the middle of the pack in a state he put all his money into. In his rally which he hoped would be a victory rally that turned into a suspension rally, he endorsed Senator Bernie Sanders and thanked Sanders for all the help he got in turning out the vote in 2018. Abrams, on the other hand, endorsed Senator Kamala Harris. Abrams stated that Harris is the strongest candidate in the race and is the strongest against President  Trump. Abrams, in a statement released to her supporters, wrote "In 2018, harsh voter suspension tatics were used against people of color in Georgia. In 2020, they will probably use them again but don't let them scare you away from voting. Kamala Harris will be on that ballot and they don't want that but they better get used to it because she is going to replace the racist in the White House next year."

The last candidate to suspend his campaign was former Representative John Delaney who was the longest candidate in the race by far. Delaney had a good performance in Iowa and kept the momentum going into New Hampshire but in South Carolina and Nevada, Delaney couldn't get above one or two percent. Delaney hoped for a good performance in Virginia which is next door to his home state of Maryland but with former Governor Terry McAullife staying in the race, Delaney believed he wouldn't be able to even get in the top three so in the early morning, Delaney suspended his campaign on an interview with Jack Tapper and he endorsed former Governor John Hickenlooper.



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Doug Jones Warns of Progressive Nominee
March 2nd, 2020

Vox- The first Democratic senator to be elected in Alabama in twenty-five years, Doug Jones, who is in a close reelection fight is warning voters not to elect a progressive nominee in 2020. Jones could be one of the easiest seats to be flipped in the general election towards Republicans and Jones says that his reelection bid will 'basically be dead' if the Democrats nominate a progressive like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. Jones says that not only is his seat in jeopardy if they Democrats move to extreme policies but other candidates are too.

Jones stated that Democrats like Tina Smith and Jeanna Shaheen would also face tougher fights since many more voters want a centrist candidate for president which is why Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar, Bill Weld, and other pragmatic candidates have such high favorabilities. Jones also announced his endorsement of Senator Cory Booker who helped campaign with then-candidate Jones when he was in a close contest with Roy Moore.

The freshmen Senator is facing a tough reelection fight and could be facing a serious challenge for his job that he won in an upset over Roy Moore two years earlier. Jones says he is confident he has a strong campaign and strong volunteers that will lead him to victory especially if someone like Amy Klobuchar or Joe Biden was the nominee since that will win over NeverTrump Republicans in addition to independents.



RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Beto O'Rourke: 11.4% (+0.9)
Joe Biden: 10.9% (+0.7)
Kamala Harris: 9.8% (+2.6)
Bernie Sanders: 9.4% (-0.3)
Amy Klobuchar: 8.8% (-0.1)
Cory Booker: 7.5% (+2.5)
Kristen Gillibrand: 7.4% (+0.1)
Elizabeth Warren: 5.9% (-0.4)
Tulsi Gabbard: 5.2% (+0.1)
Sherrod Brown: 3.6% (-0.3)
John Hickenlooper: 3.4%(+0.6)
Michael Bennet: 2.3% (+0.2)
Julian Castro: 2.1% (+0.6)
Terry McAullife: 1.0% (+0.9)
Eric Swalwell: 0.7% (+0.2)
Bill De Blasio: 0.4% (+0.3)
Jeff Merkley: 0.2% (+0.2)
Undecided: 16.0% (-0.Cool

Democrats Delegate Count
190/4,051
Kamala Harris: 29
Joe Biden: 28
Cory Booker: 17
Amy Klobuchar: 16
Beto O'Rourke: 16
Terry McAullife: 9
Elizabeth Warren: 9
Tulsi Gabbard: 9
Bernie Sanders: 8
Sherrod Brown: 7
John Hickenlooper: 7
Julian Castro: 7
Stacey Abrams: 6
Kristen Gillibrand: 6
Michael Bennet: 5
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Andrew Gillum: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Eric Swalwell: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Jeff Merkley: 1
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1

Republican Delegate Count
133/2,472
Donald Trump: 107
Bill Weld: 21
Ann Coulter: 5
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« Reply #51 on: February 19, 2019, 05:48:25 am »

Bernie needs to score a big win on Super Tuesday or it might just be over for him.
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« Reply #52 on: February 20, 2019, 10:02:27 pm »

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Gavin Newsom Endorses Kamala Harris; Joe Cunningham Endorses Joe Biden
Febuary 23rd, 2020

CNN- Momutum is continuing to grow for Kamala Harris who just won the Nevada caucus last night. Harris earned the endorsement of Eric Holder, the former Attorney General, in last nights victory rally in Nevada. Holder previously endorsed Andrew Gillum and he continued to praise the former mayor but told the press that it just wasn't Gillum's time. Holder wasn't the only new endorsement for the junior Senator from California. Harris now is endorsed by the Governor of California Gavin Newsom, an ally of Harris for a while in California politics.

Newsom's endorsement of Harris is another blow to Representative Eric Swalwell's bid for president. Swalwell in lue of falling polls in early states, early in the race, decided to withdrawal efforts in New Hampshire and South Carolina and place all efforts in California and Nevada. In Nevada, Swalwell only earned two delegates and seventh place. Now the only road left for Swalwell to the nomination is through a win in California and he needs all the support he can get. Swalwell did earn the endorsement of his predecessor in Congress, Pete Stark, and State Senator Kevin De Leon who came close to taking down Dianne Feinstein, the senior senator in California. Still, it may not be enough especially as much of the California Democratic establishment has supported Harris.

While Swalwell's bid for president continues to fall apart and Harris surges ahead, Joe Biden has also started to gain some new endorsements ahead of the crucial South Carolina primary. Biden has earned the endorsement of Joe Cunnigham, the freshmen Democrat in a pretty-heavy Republican seat. Cunningham beat a pro-Trump Republican who toke out Congressman Mark Sanford in the primary. Cunnighman announced his endorsement of fellow blue-dog Democrat, Joe Biden, in a rally inside of his district. Cunningham also announced his endorsement of the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for Senate, Jamie Harrison. Cunningham said that he supported Biden because 'seats like mine flipped because we were able to win over independents and Republicans with our moderate message in 2018 and that is how we will in 2020 too. The candidate with a moderate message that can win is Joe Biden. He has my full endorsement and I will do everything to help him win not only the South Carolina primary but everything I can to help him win the White House."

Cunningham went on to warn of nominating a progressive candidate with radical policies like Harris. Cunningham stated, "If we nominate someone like Harris or Sanders then we will lose the presidency, the American truly have concerns with their policies and nominating someone like that might cost us a few house seats too especially mine in a pretty-red area."



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Bennet Endorsed By Udall and Polis
Febuary 24th, 2020

Washington Post- In the normally uncompetitive caucus of Colorado is receiving a lot of attention from two favorite sons. The two favorite sons, former Governor John Hickenlooper and Senator Michael Bennet, formed a 'Colorado Pact' between the campaigns that have made the state all so important for the state. The pact will make whoever loses Colorado drop out and endorse the other favorite son as both Bennet and Hickenlooper are allies and friends.

Bennet has now started to pull out all the stops for a win in Colorado and has basically only campaigned in Colorado since Nevada and will till Super Tuesday. Hickenlooper, on the other hand, has been travel between Colorado and Oklahoma knowing if he just wins Colorado, it won't be enough for him to catch up to other candidates like Kamala Harris.

Bennet has started to win over some supporters in Colorado including two important Democratic politicians in the state. Former Senator Mark Udall who lost reelection in 2014 and Governor Jared Polis who is a former Congressman both endorsed Bennet who they worked with on Capitol Hill. Polis and Udall both are going campaign with Bennet in Colorado ahead of Super Tuesday.




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Bill Weld Suprises Trump Again in Nevada
Febuary 25th, 2020

The Green Papers- President Donald Trump has once again lost some of his momentum but has further gained a lead in delegates. In Nevada, Trump won with a substantial margin. At least according to the President, he did win with just over sixty percent of the vote but just losing thirty or forty percent of your base could potentially be devasting to a general election campaign. President Trump continues to claim victories from these early primary wins and in a rally, he held in Florida tonight said, "Have you heard of that loser Bill Weld, 0-4. Bill can't win more than thirty or forty percent of the vote and all those press in the crowd are calling him the winner. What a joke!"

Weld had spent a substantial amount of time and gained the endorsement of former Governor Brian Sandoval after having a strong performance in New Hampshire. Weld even was boasting his performance in Nevada in South Carolina after his beating in the primary where President Trump won more than eighty percent of the vote. Weld did do well in Nevada and surprised many pundits again with his results and won multiple delegates in the state.


Official Nevada Republican Caucus on Febuary 25th, 2020
30 Delegates
Donald Trump: 63.4% (19)
Bill Weld: 36.6% (11)


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Gabbard Touts Military Record in South Carolina
Febuary 27th, 2020

The Post and Courier- In the heavily military state, Representative Tulsi Gabbard is boasting about her military record. Gabbard had a strong performance in Iowa and has yet been able to build on her momentum coming off her strong performance but she hopes she can once again revitalize her momentum in a strong finish in South Carolina. In an interview with Gabbard, she stated, "I hope my military record will help win over veterans because we haven't had a veteran in the White House since the 1990s. I hope I can also win over women especially since I believe I can be a strong influence for young girls, not every day do you see a strong woman in politics especially in the presidency."

Gabbard has toured the state since the New Hampshire primary and has taken occasionally trips to Super Tuesday states including her birthplace in American Somoa. Gabbard isn't too far back but she is not in the top tier of candidates either where Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, and Cory Booker are. Booker, Biden, and Harris are all in a tight fight for first place in the state and at this point, anyone could win.



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South Carolina is Booker Country
Febuary 29th, 2020

The New York Times- At the begging of the night, the New York Times was told that if Booker didn't take home the prize tonight then he would suspend his campaign and endorse whoever won. Booker even seemed very surprised as early results started to come in and even before the official results came were in, Booker left his suite to start writing a victory speech. His crowd became bigger and bigger as more results started to come in and media from around the state started leaving both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris's victory rallies.

Though Harris had momentum coming out of Nevada, Booker and Biden had been building an organization in South Carolina. Biden and Booker had also been gaining endorsements to set them on top including the two Representatives. In some senses, this was also a victory for Biden even if he came in second. Biden had trouble keeping up with the other candidates as they rose and fell but this has turned around his campaign that had been falling in the rankings in results.

While Booker had a tremendous victory in South Carolina and Biden has started to turn around his poor news, Harris, on the other hand, could not claim victory. Harris was expecting a victory and she even admitted that this was not what she hoped when talking with the press outside her rally. This is not even close to the end of her campaign though by any means. Harris has had a strong performance in most early states and is close to becoming first in delegates.

According to one of the creators of the circus, "going into Super Tuesday, Booker has big [momtum], Biden and Harris has the money while Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Hickenlooper, Brown, Gabbard and so on are all trying to win their first or second wins."


Official Democratic South Carolina Results on Febuary 29th, 2020
59 Delegates
Cory Booker: 20.8% (17)
Joe Biden: 14.6% (14)
Kamala Harris: 14.5% (14)
Terry McAullife: 10.2% (9)
Stacey Abrams: 9.7% (6)
Tulsi Gabbard: 6.5% (4)
Andrew Gillum: 6.3% (3)
Julian Castro: 4.4% (1)
Beto O'Rourke: 2.3%
Elizabeth Warren: 2.1%
Bernie Sanders: 1.6%
Sherrod Brown: 1.5%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1.1%
Amy Klobuchar: 1.0%
John Delaney: 1.0%
Bill De Blasio: 0.7%
John Hickenlooper: 0.5%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.4%
Michael Bennet: 0.3%
Jeff Merkley: 0.2%
Steve Bullock: 0.2%
Eric Swalwell: 0.1%


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Abrams, Gillum, Buttigieg, Delaney, Bullock Ends Campaigns
March 1st, 2020

NBC News- Not everyone in South Carolina had the night they wished for like Cory Booker and Joe
Biden. Multiple campaigns were ended tonight after poor results in South Carolina or their campaigns have had bad result after bad result and it was not turned around by South Carolina. With a total of five campaigns ending after tonight, the field of candidates is now down to seventeen which is almost half of the original total.

The first to leave the race was long-shot Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana. Buttigieg has had bad results in the first four early contest with his highest being three percent in Iowa. Buttigieg does have one delegate to the convection and that could help influence some candidates to get his endorsement in a very close race at the convection. Buttigieg started to call his biggest donors this morning to tell them of his decision. Buttigieg was planning on having a rally in South Carolina but canceled in the afternoon and sent an email to the press that he would drop out and in a rally next week in South Bend who announced his plans for the future. Many believe Buttigieg will join the Indiana-02 race since Buttigieg has told media that he will be keeping most staff that worked in his headquarters in Indiana.

The Governor of Montana, Steve Bullock, decided he would end his campaign right before the polls officially closed in South Carolina according to his press sectary. Bullock was hoping for a better performance in Iowa and after a dismal showing there, Bullock looked towards Nevada. On the day of the Nevada Caucus, Bullock was prepared to concede the race but Bullock decided to not concede right before he was going on stage. It wasn't till today that Bullock realized there were few paths for him to the nomination. By the time the exit polls showing him last and second to last, Bullock knew the time to leave the race was today. Bullock announced in his home state that he would leave the race and endorsed Joe Biden.

Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum both hoped for good performances tonight but both failed to capture any of the first three places. Gillum had a rough week starting with Eric Holder switching his endorsement to Kamala Harris and then ending with getting in the middle of the pack in a state he put all his money into. In his rally which he hoped would be a victory rally that turned into a suspension rally, he endorsed Senator Bernie Sanders and thanked Sanders for all the help he got in turning out the vote in 2018. Abrams, on the other hand, endorsed Senator Kamala Harris. Abrams stated that Harris is the strongest candidate in the race and is the strongest against President  Trump. Abrams, in a statement released to her supporters, wrote "In 2018, harsh voter suspension tatics were used against people of color in Georgia. In 2020, they will probably use them again but don't let them scare you away from voting. Kamala Harris will be on that ballot and they don't want that but they better get used to it because she is going to replace the racist in the White House next year."

The last candidate to suspend his campaign was former Representative John Delaney who was the longest candidate in the race by far. Delaney had a good performance in Iowa and kept the momentum going into New Hampshire but in South Carolina and Nevada, Delaney couldn't get above one or two percent. Delaney hoped for a good performance in Virginia which is next door to his home state of Maryland but with former Governor Terry McAullife staying in the race, Delaney believed he wouldn't be able to even get in the top three so in the early morning, Delaney suspended his campaign on an interview with Jack Tapper and he endorsed former Governor John Hickenlooper.



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Doug Jones Warns of Progressive Nominee
March 2nd, 2020

Vox- The first Democratic senator to be elected in Alabama in twenty-five years, Doug Jones, who is in a close reelection fight is warning voters not to elect a progressive nominee in 2020. Jones could be one of the easiest seats to be flipped in the general election towards Republicans and Jones says that his reelection bid will 'basically be dead' if the Democrats nominate a progressive like Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. Jones says that not only is his seat in jeopardy if they Democrats move to extreme policies but other candidates are too.

Jones stated that Democrats like Tina Smith and Jeanna Shaheen would also face tougher fights since many more voters want a centrist candidate for president which is why Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar, Bill Weld, and other pragmatic candidates have such high favorabilities. Jones also announced his endorsement of Senator Cory Booker who helped campaign with then-candidate Jones when he was in a close contest with Roy Moore.

The freshmen Senator is facing a tough reelection fight and could be facing a serious challenge for his job that he won in an upset over Roy Moore two years earlier. Jones says he is confident he has a strong campaign and strong volunteers that will lead him to victory especially if someone like Amy Klobuchar or Joe Biden was the nominee since that will win over NeverTrump Republicans in addition to independents.



RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Beto O'Rourke: 11.4% (+0.9)
Joe Biden: 10.9% (+0.7)
Kamala Harris: 9.8% (+2.6)
Bernie Sanders: 9.4% (-0.3)
Amy Klobuchar: 8.8% (-0.1)
Cory Booker: 7.5% (+2.5)
Kristen Gillibrand: 7.4% (+0.1)
Elizabeth Warren: 5.9% (-0.4)
Tulsi Gabbard: 5.2% (+0.1)
Sherrod Brown: 3.6% (-0.3)
John Hickenlooper: 3.4%(+0.6)
Michael Bennet: 2.3% (+0.2)
Julian Castro: 2.1% (+0.6)
Terry McAullife: 1.0% (+0.9)
Eric Swalwell: 0.7% (+0.2)
Bill De Blasio: 0.4% (+0.3)
Jeff Merkley: 0.2% (+0.2)
Undecided: 16.0% (-0.Cool

Democrats Delegate Count
190/4,051
Kamala Harris: 29
Joe Biden: 28
Cory Booker: 17
Amy Klobuchar: 16
Beto O'Rourke: 16
Terry McAullife: 9
Elizabeth Warren: 9
Tulsi Gabbard: 9
Bernie Sanders: 8
Sherrod Brown: 7
John Hickenlooper: 7
Julian Castro: 7
Stacey Abrams: 6
Kristen Gillibrand: 6
Michael Bennet: 5
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Andrew Gillum: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Eric Swalwell: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Jeff Merkley: 1
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1

Republican Delegate Count
133/2,472
Donald Trump: 107
Bill Weld: 21
Ann Coulter: 5

Normally, in a Democratic primary contest, you need to get at least 15 % of the vote in order to have a share of delegates.
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« Reply #53 on: February 21, 2019, 01:30:30 pm »

If this is REAL TIME come January/February/March 2020 that Democrats have to choose between O'Rourke and Harris Trump may very well get reelected.
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« Reply #54 on: February 21, 2019, 04:34:16 pm »

@UWS, In real life Democrats would need 15% but I put aside that rule because....well, you will have to wait and see. I donít want to reveal too much
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« Reply #55 on: February 21, 2019, 06:26:47 pm »

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The Night of the Women: Super Tuesday 2020
Sanders, Merkley, De Blasio, McAullife, Bennet, Swalwell, Castro Out
March 3rd, 2020

Politico- The women in the presidential race made their mark on presidential politics as all five women left in the race won at least one contest. The winner of the night, Senator Kamala Harris, was the first African-American women to win more than one contest, winning three in one night. Harris won the most delegates of the night, winning 274 delegates which were mostly powered by California. Harris won more than sixty delegates more than the second highest, Beto O'Rourke. Harris is the clear frontrunner in delegates but after super Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight updated their prediction of a brokered convention. With a fourth of the delegates being committed, the prediction of a broked convection is up from ten percent to thirty percent.

Harris wasn't the only successful women running on Super Tuesday, every other woman in the race at least won one race. Tulsi Gabbard might have had fewer delegates than most other candidates, she was able to win two races, Democrats Aboard and American Samoa. The least successful of the candidates, Amy Klobuchar even though won the second most delegates out of the women candidates but all ninety came from her landslide victory in her home state of Minnesota. The other two candidates, Elizabeth Warren, and Kirsten Gillibrand won around sixty to seventy delegates each and performed well in the northeast.

The most successful of the male candidates in the race was Beto O'Rourke, the former Representative and the last of the 2018 stars that ran for president in 2020 in the race. O'Rourke took two states and was able to push Julian Castro out of the race with his win in the two's home state of Texas. O'Rourke is now in third place to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and is in a strong position to be the nominee. Biden, himself, did pretty well with a few strong second and third places but he lacked a win that other candidates can point to as the reason they are staying in the race.

Still not all candidates performed as they expected. Mayor Bill De Blasio was the first to suspend his bid after winning only ten delegates in two of the early contest and not even being able to get in the five in Virginia which was a state he campaigned in since New Hampshire. De Blasio endorsed his home-state Senator, Kirsten Gillibrand and pledged to support her at the convection. De Blasio also stated his distrust in the government under Trump and attacked his 'racism'.

The second to suspend was the Former Governor of Virginia, Terry McAullife. McAullife aimed to win Virginia and his campaign and most political pundits believed he had a clear lead in the state but consistent attacks about his support of Ralph Northam tanked his campaign and allowed a surprise win by Kirsten Gillibrand. McAullife endorsed Joe Biden and asked other candidates other than Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris and Joe Biden to drop out to unite the party so the country doesn't have to live with him for the next four years.

The next three candidates, Senator Michael Bennet, Former HUD Sectary Julian Castro, and Representative Eric Swalwell, dropped out because, like McAullife, had poor results in their home state. Bennet pledged to endorse John Hickenlooper if he didn't win in Colorado in the 'Colorado Pact'. In his suspension speech, Bennet seemed as if he wanted to continue but by the end, the endorsement came for Hickenlooper. The endorsement could have hurt his chances at a Vice-Presidential slot as both Gillibrand and Klobuchar have both looked at Bennet to be on their tickets if nominated. Another potential Vice-President, Julian Castro who lost his home state of Texas in a close race to O'Rourke. Castro surprised his crowd and even earned some boos for his surprise endorsement of Kamala Harris. Castro told the party, similar to McAullife, that unity is the most important thing going forward. The third suspension of the three was Representative Eric Swalwell who withdrew efforts in Iowa and New Hampshire early on to focus on Nevada and California but a poor performance in Nevada and the third place in his home state forced him to suspend his campaign. Swalwell endorsed Harris as expected and applauded her work in his home state.

At one in the morning, one of the last to suspend in the night called into CNN to announce his exit from the race after having his best performance be a fourth place in California. Senator Jeff Merkley best performance gave him seventy-four delegates but after the campaign did some soul searching, Merkley knew it was time to leave the race. Merkley announced his endorsement of Elizabeth Warren and urged progressives to unite around her campaign.

The last and most surprising exit of the night came from Senator Bernie Sanders who only won his home state of Vermont. Sanders surprised his supporters and even his top staff with the news of his exit from the race. Sanders was not able to get off the ground like he did in 2016 but his fundraising remained strong throughout the campaign cycle even while his base started to abbonded him after his third place in New Hampshire. Sanders announced he would endorse a the convection but hopes a progressive is a nominee.


Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA): (274 Delegates)
1st:
Califronia, Georgia, Tennesee

2nd:
Alabama

3rd:
North Carolina

Former Representative Beto O'Rourke (D-TX): (209 Delegates)
1st:
Texas, Oklahoma

2nd:

3rd:
American Somoa

Former Vice-President Joe Biden (D-DE): (208 Delegates)
1st:

2nd:
American Samoa, California, North Carolina

3rd:
Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas, Virginia, Minnesota

Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro (D-TX): (135 Delegates)
1st:

2nd:
Texas

3rd:

Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ): (130 Delegates)
1st:
Alabama, North Carolina

2nd:
Georgia

3rd:
Tennesee

Represenative Eric Swalwell (D-CA): (92 Delegates)
1st:

2nd:

3rd:
California

Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): (90 Delegates)
1st:
Minnesota

2nd:

3rd:

Senator Jeff Merkey (D-OR): (79 Delegates)
1st:

2nd:

3rd:

Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): (72 Delegates)
1st:
Masachuetts

2nd:
Vermont

3rd:
Democrats Aboard

Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH): (70 Delegates)
1st:

2nd:
Tennesee

3rd:
Oklahoma

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY): (64 Delegates)
1st:
Virginia

2nd:

3rd:
Massachusetts

Former Governor John Hickenlooper: (53 Delegates)
1st:
Colorado

2nd:
Oklahoma

3rd:

Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT): (51 Delegates)
1st:
Vermont

2nd:
Democrats Aboard, Massacheutts

3rd:

Former Governor Terry McAuliffe (D-VA): (41 Delegates)
1st:

2nd:
Virginia

3rd:

Represenative Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): (33 Delegates)
1st:
American Samoa, Democrats Aboard

2nd:

3rd:

Senator Michael Bennet (D-CO): (22 Delegates)
1st:

2nd:
Colorado

3rd:

Mayor Bill De Blasio (D-NY): (10 Delegates)
1st:

2nd:

3rd:
Vermont


Democrats Delegate Count
1,823/4,051
Kamala Harris: 303
Joe Biden: 236
Beto O'Rourke: 225
Cory Booker: 147
Julian Castro: 142
Amy Klobuchar: 106
Eric Swalwell: 94
Elizabeth Warren: 81
Jeff Merkley: 80
Sherrod Brown: 77
Kristen Gillibrand: 69
John Hickenlooper: 60
Bernie Sanders: 59
Terry McAullife: 50
Tulsi Gabbard: 42
Michael Bennet: 27
Bill De Blasio: 10
Stacey Abrams: 6
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Andrew Gillum: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1



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Weld Suprise Win in Vermont, Trump Cruises in South
March 3rd, 2020


FiveThirtyEight- Donald Trump has made a clear delegate lead after tonight and shown where he does best the south. Governor Weld, knowing many southerners were social conservatives, decided to basically skip the south and campaign in the more Liberal-Republican of the country. Weld's campaigning in those Liberal-Republican states did pay off in the northeast where Weld scored an upset win over the president in the closest Republican primary this season. In 2016, John Kasich almost scored a victory in Vermont winning around thirty-two percent to Donald Trump's thirty-six. Trump couldn't hold onto a state that he won just four years earlier.

Weld performed well in Alaska where he kept Trump below sixty-five percent. The biggest loss for Weld and his campaign came in his home state of Massachusetts where he barely lost to Trump. Weld was not expecting to win Massachusetts but a loss in a home state is almost always devasting to a campaign.

At the end of the night, Trump has gained 509 new delegates which were five times Weld haul of just eighty-six delegates. Now, Trump has about a six times lead in delegates.




Republican Delegate Count
728/2,472
Donald Trump: 616
Bill Weld: 107
Ann Coulter: 5


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The Third Parties Primaries Start
March 4th, 2020

Reason- While the two major parties have absorbed much of the attention from their Super Tuesday primaries, they weren't the only parties to hold contest Wednesday. The Libertarians held contests in four states, California, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and Oklahoma. The contest victories were split between the major candidates and no major candidate emerge as the frontrunner so far. Still, no delegates have been allocated as of yet and the real thing that matters in the Libertarian primary is the convection.

In the primary, Tom Campbell won the California primary, Joe Walsh won the Oklahoma primary, John McAfee won the North Carolina primary and Larry Sharpe won the Massachusetts primary.  Technically both Walsh and McAfee didn't win but were runner-ups to uncommitted which won easily in both states. With the split decision, Representative Justin Amash has now brought up the idea of running on the Liberartian ticket again but promises to stay out of the race unless Weld drops out of the primary.

In the Green Party, they may be seeing a real serious candidate to join the race. One of Bernie Sanders former endorsers, Representative Ro Khanna, has announced he will launch a longshot bid for the president on the green party platform if Elizabeth Warren doesn't become the nominee. Khanna has already announced he will be searching for staff in the effort but multiple high-level Democrat leadership have condemned Khanna for trying to split the Democratic vote. The leadership stated Khanna would only allow a third Trump term.


Official Libertarian Califronia Primary Results on March 3rd, 2020
Tom Campbell: 45.2%
Uncommited: 12.1%
Larry Sharpe: 11.9%
Sam Sedar: 8.7%
Adam Kokesh: 8.0%
Joe Walsh: 7.2%
John McAfee: 5.6%
Arvin Vohar: 1.3%

Official Libertarian Massachuetts Primary Results on March 3rd, 2020
Larry Sharpe: 36.5%
Sam Sedar: 21.3%
Joe Walsh: 14.1%
Tom Campbell: 11.9%
John McAfee: 6.2%
Uncommited: 5.7%
Arvin Vohar: 2.7%
Adam Kokesh: 1.6%

Official Libertarian North Carolina Primary Results on March 3rd, 2020
Uncommited: 58.6%
John McAfee: 20.5%
Joe Walsh: 5.1%
Larry Sharpe: 4.5%
Tom Campbell: 4.4%
Sam Sedar: 2.7%
Adam Kokesh: 2.2%
Arvin Vohar: 2.1%

Official Libertarian Oklahoma Primary Results on March 3rd, 2020
Uncommited: 44.2%
Joe Walsh: 24.4%
Adam Kokesh: 14.7%
Larry Sharpe: 6.5%
John McAfee: 5.6%
Tom Campbell: 3.3%
Sam Sedar: 0.9%
Arvin Vohar: 0.5%
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« Reply #56 on: February 23, 2019, 07:45:24 pm »

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Sabato Crystal Ball Updates Senate and Congressional Election Predictions
March 5th, 2020

Sabato Crystal Ball- While most reporters were focused on the Super Tuesday primaries but dozens of congressional and senate races were put in the general election phase of the campaign. Now, the Sabato Crystal Ball can officially update our senate prediction for the 2020 election and have updated the closets races in the congressional races. This will not be the last update that will change our forecast subsatnly especially with more primaries to come but this is to give an earlier view as to what may come on an election day.

Senate Forecast
51 R-46 D-3 Tossup

Most Likely to Flip
Alabama (Likely R)
Sen. Doug Jones (D) vs Rep. Martha Roby (R)

The most likely seat to flip is Alabama which is currently held by moderate Democrat, Senator Doug Jones. Jones won in an upset over scandal-ridden former justice, Roy Moore. Jones is now facing a much tougher opponent who could take away some of the bases that help propel him to victory three years ago, women. One of the few women on the Republican side of the aisle in Congress, Representative Martha Roby, was able to win her primary in Alabama with just over fifty percent of the vote to avoid a runoff. Roby will be a formidable challenger especially with her strong primary victory and a strong base of support in her home district. Jones shouldn't lose all hope but this looks to be another southern seat out of reach for Democrats to hold onto.

Colorado (Tossup)
Sen. Cory Gardner (R) vs Former Treasure Cary Kennedy (D)

Senator Cory Gardner was able to win in a close election over Mark Udall just six years ago in a Republican wave with a conservative message. Gardner has kept high enough favorability but can he survive a blue tide. Right now, the race is a tossup. Gardner is a strong campaigner and leads the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2018 to retain the Senate. Still, Democrats are ready to flip the seat and make Colorado forever a blue state as it has been turning. Gardner will be fighting like hell against former Treasure Cary Kennedy who was the runner-up in the Democratic Gubernatorial primary two years ago. Kennedy has been attacking Gardner over the lack of diversity in the Senate candidate two years ago but Gardner has continually attacked back by saying he backed candidates based on values, not gender or any skin color. Kennedy has also gone against Gardner for his pro-life values but that was a failed campaign tactic of Udall in 2014.

Georgia (Tossup)
Sen. David Perdue (R) vs Former State Rep. Stacey Abrams (D)

Senator David Perdue had a pretty easy victory in 2014 but in this election, he is facing a stronger challenger then six years ago. Perdue has a strong operation and has been preparing for a reelection fight for four years knowing he would be a target after Democrats first targeted Georgia in 2016 then in 2018. His challenger will be the former presidential candidate, Stacey Abrams. Abrams was not able to get on the primary ballot but the nominee dropped out so Abrams could fill their spot like what happened in Indiana in 2016 with Evan Bayh. Abrams has growing support and nearly won the governor's seat just two years ago but the blue wave will be much smaller this year then in 2018 so she may need to fight twice as hard to win against Perdue.

North Carolina (Tossup)
Sen. Thom Tillis (R) vs Unknown (D)*

Senator Thom Tillis has favorability ratings that have just continued to drop and Tillis even knew with his favorability ratings he wouldn't be able to win the governorship which is one of the reasons Tillis stayed in the senate race. Tillis hopes his incumbency can save his chances and can replicate a victory like the senior Senate of North Carolina had in 2016. Tillis does still have strong supporters with he NRSC which could put Tillis's race at the top of most win states. Tillis still doesn't know who is a challenger is yet but his campaign believes he has a strong chance of winning against every single one of them.

Arizona (Tilt R)
Sen. Martha McSally (R) vs Unknown (D)*

Senator Martha McSally was appointed to replace Senator John Kyl who replaced Senator John McCain. McSally is a former Representative who lost in a close Senate election in 2018 before being appointed to McCain's former seat. McSally is liked in the area with some strong critics of her 2018 campaign attacks on Krysten Sinema. McSally did win praise for her concession and handling of the recount in 2018. McSally has some critcs on the right for her past NeverTrump support but most Republicans fall in line by-election especially if McSally is facing a progressive candidate like Representative Rebun Gallego.

The opponent is not known yet since the primary has not been held but the two frontrunners are Gallego and Kelly and both pose a significant challenge to McSally in the general election.


Maine (Tilt R)
Sen. Susan Collins (R) vs Unknown (D)*

Senator Susan Collins became a top target after her vote of support for Judge Kavanaugh and the Democrats have a war chest to defeat the incumbent. Collins has always won her elections easily but this may be different with the Democrats ready with strong candidates in the primary. Still, Collins has strong supporters on both sides of the aisle but she still could lose a strong backer of hers in the past, women, depending on the candidate nominated. The frontrunners for the nomination are Betsy Sweet, Susan Rice, and Zak Ringelson. Rice is the most likely nominee but many women in the primaries want Sweet to be the nominee and have earned endorsements from Emily's list.

House Forecast
228 D-196 R-11 Tossup
118 Safe-20 Likely- 20 Tilt-11 Tossup-16 Tilt-26 Likely-154 Safe


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Brown Wins Kansas; O'Rourke Wins Lousiana
March 7th, 2020

Washington Post- In a surprise victory, Beto O'Rourke won the neighboring state of Lousiana over the presumed favorite, Senator Kamala Harris. O'Rourke won with just twenty percent of the vote meaning the primaries are still very close and very divided. O'Rourke was jubilant at his rally with supporters and volunteers. In his rally, O'Rourke declared "Super Tuesday made this a three-person race and I just won an upset over both. I am feeling like the frontrunner tonight." and he went on to say, "If you want the media to treat us like the frontrunners we are then we need to continue to win these upsets till they are no longer upsets."

O'Rourke's victory was mostly powered by a large Latino turnout which is a strong base for him and helped him win Texas and Oklahoma. This could be a powerful base for O'Rourke especially as states like Arizona and Florida that give out loads of delegates in March. With those states wins, you won't be seeing O'Rourke leave the race any time soon but that is if.

O'Rourke wasn't the only one excited about results in tonight's contest. Sherrod Brown who has been campaigning on the dignity of work message won his first state in an upset over Joe Biden. Biden didn't get in the top two after Amy Klobuchar bypassed him in the final few minutes of results coming in. Biden, unlike O'Rourke, could be seeing his campaign come to an end. Not only has Biden been unable to win a single state but top-level staffers have been reported sending out their resumes to different campaigns.

Biden still seemed upbeat at his rally and played the show must go on at his rally in Kansas. Biden pledged to stay in the race and fight for the centrist views and fight for America. After the rally, Biden did five interviews where he denied he was leaving the field.


Official Kansas Democratic Caucus on March 7th, 2020
37 Delegates
Sherrod Brown: 23.7% (17)
Amy Klobuchar: 20.9% (12)
Joe Biden: 14.6% (6)
John Hickenlooper: 9.2% (2)
Beto O'Rourke: 7.3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 6.1%
Kamala Harris: 5.2%
Cory Booker: 5.2%
Kristen Gillibrand: 4.6%
Elizabeth Warren: 2.2%

Official Lousiana Democratic Primary on March 7th, 2020
59 Delegates
Beto O'Rourke: 19.2% (19)
Kamala Harris: 18.8% (16)
Cory Booker: 16.3% (13)
Joe Biden: 13.1% (6)
Tulsi Gabbard: 10.5% (4)
Amy Klobuchar: 6.6% (1)
Sherrod Brown: 5.3%
John Hickenlooper: 5.1%
Kristen Gillibrand: 3.5%
Elizabeth Warren: 1.1%


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Trump Takes Three and Weld Adds Second Win
March 7th, 2020

Fox News- President Trump sweep three victories and has come ever closer to the delegate threashold needed to win the nomination. The longshot, insurgent challenge from Bill Weld has gained steam but he is still is failing to catch up to Donald Trump. Weld was able to win in Maine but by a very close margin and could be come even closer if the abstain vote goes President Trump's way.

Trump was able to win in Lousiana, Kansas and Kentucky in landslides. Trump's closets victory was in Kentucky where he won over seventy percent of the vote. Mostly the voters who went against Trump were angery at President Trump's trade war witht he large agriculture work force in the state. In Kansas and Lousiana, President Trump's victories were landslides and he won over eighty percent of the vote in both states. The victories for President Trump didn't end there for his campaign, a number of represenatives and former represenatives signed a letter endorsing the president inculding Represenative Paul Gosar, Morgan Griffith, Jim Renacci, Ken Calvert, Bob Gibbs and more from across the country.

Weld was able to win in the Maine caucus just two states away from Weld's first win in Vermont. Weld has said he has comfortable fundraising now but he will need more than just two states to win the nomination but has pledged to stay in the race till Trump wins the delegates needed.


Official Kansas Republican Caucus on March 7th, 2020
40 Delegates
Donald Trump: 86.7% (39)
Bill Weld: 13.3% (1)

Official Lousiana Republican Primary on March 7th, 2020
43 Delegates
Donald Trump: 92.5% (43)
Bill Weld: 7.5%

Official Kentucky Republican Caucus on March 7th, 2020
46 Delegates
Donald Trump: 72.6% (39)
Bill Weld: 27.4% (7)

Official Maine Republican Caucus on March 7th, 2020
23 Delegates
Bill Weld: 52.9% (14)
Donald Trump: 47.1% (9)


RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Beto O'Rourke: 16.6% (+5.2)
Kamala Harris: 14.1% (+4.3)
Joe Biden: 11.4% (+0.5)
Amy Klobuchar: 9.5% (+0.7)
Elizabeth Warren: 8.8% (+2.9)
Cory Booker: 8.7% (+1.2)
Kristen Gillibrand: 7.6% (+0.2)
Tulsi Gabbard: 6.1% (+0.9)
Sherrod Brown: 5.0% (+1.4)
John Hickenlooper: 3.9%(+0.5)
Undecided: 14.3% (-1.7)

Democrats Delegate Count
1,919/4,051
Kamala Harris: 319
Joe Biden: 248
Beto O'Rourke: 244
Cory Booker: 160
Julian Castro: 142
Amy Klobuchar: 119
Sherrod Brown: 94
Eric Swalwell: 94
Elizabeth Warren: 81
Jeff Merkley: 80
Kristen Gillibrand: 69
John Hickenlooper: 62
Bernie Sanders: 59
Terry McAullife: 50
Tulsi Gabbard: 46
Michael Bennet: 27
Bill De Blasio: 10
Stacey Abrams: 6
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Andrew Gillum: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1

Republican Delegate Count
830/2,472
Donald Trump: 746
Bill Weld: 129
Ann Coulter: 5


Gallup Poll of Kansas Senate Race
Jake LaTurner (R): 52.4%
Paul Davis (D): 40.2%
Greg Orman(I): 3.7%
Undecided: 3.7%

Change Poll of Alabama Senate Race
Martha Roby (R): 56.9%
Doug Jones (D): 37.1%
Undecided: 3.0%

ARG Poll of Michigan Senate Race
Gray Peters (D): 51.2%
John James (R): 43.5%
Undecided: 5.3%
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« Reply #57 on: February 25, 2019, 09:40:31 pm »

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McConnell's Seat is Getting Closer
March 8th, 2020

The Hill- The Democrats and Senator Chuck Schumer recuirted a high profile challenger to the current Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell. McConnell is running for reelection in deep red Kentucky. The falling favorability ratings of McConnell and his repeated attacks from even members from his own party have made his reelection uncertain. The race is still called Likely Republican from the Sabato Crystal Ball but the polls have come closer between McConnell and his opponent, Amy McGrath.

McGrath just recently jumped in the race but she is the only serious candidate in the primary and has been using this time to attack McConnell. McGrath has already gained millions of dollars and started to run ads. Still, McGrath does not only have millions of dollars in the bank but she has also had a strong back story of being a women fighter pilot and she has gained national endorsements including all the Democratic candidate for president and even Howard Shultz.

McConnell is ready to fit back though, he has even raised millions of dollars against McGrath to raise her unfavorability. McConnell has also already received a letter gaining an endorsement from the whole Republican congressional delegation and has held multiple rallies with Senator Rand Paul.



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Gabbard Goes After Trump's 'America First'
March 9th, 2020

MSNBC- After trailing in polls and falling behind in delegates, Representative Tulsi Gabbard is going after the president ahead of the crucial, Super Tuesday II. Gabbard went after the President's reelection campaign motto of American First, one of many themes the President is running on. Gabbard stated the President obviously doesn't follow his own motto of 'America First' since he has already started conflicts across the world that don't put Americans first or veterans first. Gabbard also went on and said, "I am a veteran, I served my country and I can't bear the sight of our President putting people like me's life on the line."

Gabbard has been falling behind especially with winning only thirty-three delegates on Super Tuesday. Gabbard has continued to win the small contest which has powered her campaign and has helped pushed her campaign forward. Still, Gabbard hopes to add multiple more contest or she has said that the campaign may not last.



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Super Tuesday II
Biden Leaves Race
March 10th, 2020


New York Times- Super Tuesday was able to launch, Senator Kamala Harris's campaign to frontrunner status leaving the other top two candidates in the dust. Harris has yet to continue to grow her campaign beyond the south but has remained on top of the field even after only winning one state in Super Tuesday II. Harris does have real competition though for her spot as the frontrunner from the big winner of Super Tuesday II, Senator Sherrod Brown.

Last week, Brown won his first state of Kansas and now has three wins in his column after tonight with wins in Ohio and Missouri. Brown also came close to winning Michigan in a tight race up until the end with Senator Amy Klobuchar. Still, Brown might have affected the race the most in his third place in Mississippi pushing Joe Biden to fourth place. Already, Biden was having a bad night with a loss in Idaho and Maine. Biden after seeing those states was dishearted but hoped his close second to Kamala Harris could save his campaign but in the late hours after Brown passed Biden in Mississippi, Biden knew the race was over for him. Biden had always been boosted by good performances in the south but the fourth place in Mississippi meant he was losing some of the African-American votes which could cost him states like Maryland and Arkansas.

Biden does have over three hundred which will give him lots of leverage, especially in contested convection. If Biden uses his cards right, it's very likely that Biden will be in the cabinet if he wants to be in the public eye. Biden was endorsing any candidate tonight but praised Klobuchar and John Hickenlooper saying both would make excellent nominees in the general election. Biden also said he would fundraise for the nominee and would endorse whoever is nominated.

Biden was one of the few candidates to have a bad night, most other candidates were able to find their victories except Cory Booker and Beto O'Rourke. O'Rourke was able to pick up some delegates but he didn't win any state or come close in many races. O'Rourke has been focusing on growing his efforts in heavy latino states like Arizona, Utah, and Florida. Booker came in second in Mississippi and in fourth in Missouri. Booker and O'Rourke pledged to continue to the convection.


Official Democratic Ohio Primary on March 10th, 2020
160 Delegates
Sherrod Brown: 55.9% (102)
Joe Biden: 20.1% (38)
Amy Klobuchar: 14.6 (20)
Beto O'Rourke: 4.5
Kamala Harris: 1.3
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1.1
Elizabeth Warren: 0.9
John Hickenlooper: 0.8
Tulsi Gabbard: 0.5
Cory Booker: 0.3%

Official Democratic Missouri Caucus on March 10th, 2020
84 Delegates
Sherrod Brown: 31.4% (34)
Amy Klobuchar: 21.9% (29)
Beto O'Rourke: 15.3% (15)
Cory Booker: 11.5% (5)
Joe Biden: 11.4% (1)
Kamala Harris: 5.1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1.7%
Elizabeth Warren: 1.1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 0.5%
John Hickenlooper: 0.1%

Official Democratic Michigan Primary on March 10th, 2020
147 Delegates
Amy Klobuchar: 29.1% (56)
Sherrod Brown: 28.8% (50)
Joe Biden: 14.7% (22)
Cory Booker: 11.4% (10)
Kirsten Gillibrand: 6.9% (9)
Beto O'Rourke: 4.0%
Kamala Harris: 2.5%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.2%
Elizabeth Warren: 1.1%
John Hickenlooper: 0.4%

Official Democratic Northern Marianna Caucus on March 10th, 2020
11 Delegates
Tulsi Gabbard: 34.3% (7)
Beto O'Rourke: 32.1% (3)
Joe Biden: 25.8% (1)
Kamala Harris: 4.9%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1.5%
Amy Klobuchar: 1.4%
Cory Booker: 0.0%
Elizabeth Warren: 0.0%
Sherrod Brown: 0.0%
John Hickenlooper: 0.0%

Official Democratic Mississippi Primary on March 10th, 2020
41 Delegates
Kamala Harris: 18.2% (16)
Cory Booker: 18.1% (11)
Sherrod Brown: 14.6% (6)
Joe Biden: 14.2% (5)
Beto O'Rourke: 14.1% (2)
Tulsi Gabbard: 10.5% (1)
Elizabeth Warren: 7.6%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 6.3%
John Hickenlooper: 4.2%

Official Democratic Maine Primary on March 10th, 2020
30 Delegates
Kirsten Gillibrand: 17.3% (9)
Elizabeth Warren: 15.5% (7)
Tulsi Gabbard: 15.3% (6)
John Hickenlooper: 15.2% (6)
Joe Biden: 13.1% (2)
Beto O'Rourke: 10.0%
Sherrod Brown: 5.4%
Kamala Harris: 5.2%
Amy Klobuchar: 3.3%
Cory Booker: 2.1%

Official Democratic Idaho Caucus on March 10th, 2020
27 Delegates
John Hickenlooper: 15.1% (9)
Joe Biden: 15.0% (6)
Tulsi Gabbard: 14.9% (5)
Kamala Harris: 14.3% (4)
Elizabeth Warren: 11.6% (2)
Sherrod Brown: 10.9% (1)
Amy Klobuchar: 6.2%
Beto O'Rourke: 4.5%
Cory Booker: 4.1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 3.4%


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Trump Trounces Weld
March 10th, 2020

CBS- While the Democrats look more and more likely to be subjected to a contested convention, the Republicans look more likely to renominate Donald Trump on the first ballot. Trump has drawn ever closer to the 1,236 delegates needed and will most likely secure the nomination if he continues to in ninety percent of the delegates as he has done so far. If Trump doesn't win the nomination in seven days, he most likely will expand his delegate lead over his challenger with multiple winners take all contest including bigger states like Florida and Ohio.

Even with Bill Weld's almost certain failed attempt to steal the nomination, he has proved to be a strong challenger winning two states and adding the District of Colombia in his column tonight. Weld has made it clear that Trump will have trouble winning independent voters in the general election and that could benefit the campaign of Howard Schultz who has silently been gaining ballot access across the nation and growing his campaign.

It has been rumored that Schultz is considering several prominent figures in the political arena for the vice-presidential choice. Schultz rumored choices include former Congressman John Delaney, Governor Larry Hogan, Former Governor Bill Weld, Former Governor John Hickenlooper, and Admiral William McRaven. Both Weld and Hickenlooper are both stilling running for president and haven't signaled that they are even open to the vice-presidential slot on the ticket.


Official Republican Michigan Primary on March 10th, 2020
59 Delegates
Donald Trump: 69.8% (38)
Bill Weld: 30.2% (21)

Official Republican Mississippi Primary on March 10th, 2020
40 Delegates
Donald Trump: 91.6% (40)
Bill Weld: 8.4%

Official Republican Idaho Caucus on March 10th, 2020
32 Delegates
Donald Trump: 81.1% (31)
Bill Weld: 18.9% (1)

Official Republican Hawaii Caucus on March 10th, 2020
19 Delegates
Donald Trump: 74.2% (14)
Bill Weld: 25.8% (5)

Official Republican Virgin Island Caucus on March 10th, 2020
9 Delegates
Donald Trump: 51.5% (5)
Bill Weld: 48.5% (4)

Official Republican Guam Caucus on March 10th, 2020
9 Delegates
Donald Trump: 59.3% (6)
Bill Weld: 40.7% (3)

Official Republican Washington D.C. Caucus on March 10th, 2020
19 Delegates
Bill Weld: 54.8% (12)
Donald Trump: 45.2% (7)

Official Republican Wyoming Caucus on March 10th, 2020
12 Delegates
Donald Trump: 87.6% (11)
Bill Weld: 12.4% (1)


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Tom Vilsack is Out, Iowa Senate Field is Crowded
March 11th, 2020

Iowa Starting Line- Former Governor Tom Vilsack ran a short campaign for Senate and had made the race in Iowa closer with Senator Joni Ernst. Vilsack was the wide frontrunner for the primary and was close behind Ernst. In the final poll, before Vilsack ended his campaign, he was polling even with Ernst but Sabato Crystal Ball still ranked the race as likely Republican. Still, Vilsack ended his campaign for personal reasons and medical reasons.

Now, without Vilsack in the race, the Iowa Democrats are scrambling for a good candidate. Already, the Democrats have gotten a new frontrunner, congresswoman Cindy Axne. Axne was heavily recruited into the race by the Democratic Senatorial Committee. Senator Chuck Schumer is hoping Axne can replicate the performance of Jacky Rosen, the freshman Democrat, who beat Senator Dean Heller in 2018.

Axne most likely won't be the only Democrat ready to challenge Ernst in the general election. Axne will probably face J.D. Scholten, the baseball player that almost took down Steve King, Rob Sand, the newly elected treasurer, and a few state senators and state representatives.


Des Moines Register Poll of Iowa Senate
Joni Ernst: 48.9%
Cindy Axne: 44.2%
Undecided: 6.9%

Des Moines Register Poll of Democrat Iowa Senate Primary
Cindy Axne: 16.7%
J.D. Scholten: 14.5%
Rob Sand: 14.3%
Rita Hart: 11.5%
Rob Hogg: 5.9%
Liz Mathias: 5.4%
Undecided: 21.7%


Democrats Delegate Count
1,919/4,051
Kamala Harris: 339
Joe Biden: 323
Sherrod Brown: 287
Beto O'Rourke: 264
Amy Klobuchar: 204
Cory Booker: 186
Julian Castro: 142
Eric Swalwell: 94
Elizabeth Warren: 90
Jeff Merkley: 80
John Hickenlooper: 79
Kristen Gillibrand: 78
Tulsi Gabbard: 65
Bernie Sanders: 59
Terry McAullife: 50
Michael Bennet: 27
Bill De Blasio: 10
Stacey Abrams: 6
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Andrew Gillum: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1

Republican Delegate Count
1,029/2,472
Donald Trump: 898
Bill Weld: 176
Ann Coulter: 5
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Catalunya
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« Reply #58 on: February 26, 2019, 06:01:11 am »

Democrats need to rally behind Kamala if they want to avoid a contested convention.
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« Reply #59 on: February 26, 2019, 05:18:40 pm »

I made up the electoral map so far for the primaries:


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« Reply #60 on: March 01, 2019, 05:58:59 pm »

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Gabbard and Warren Form Pact
March 12th, 2020

Boston Herald- Before the Super Tuesday primary, Senator Michael Bennet and Former Governor John Hickenlooper formed a 'Colorado Pact'. It stated whoever lost Colorado out of the two favorite sons would drop out and endorse the other candidate since they had similar messages and were taking from the same voters. Now, a similar Pact is being formed before what is being called 'Super Tuesday III'. Senator Elizabeth Warren and Representative Tulsi Gabbard have agreed that whoever has the stronger campaign by the end of March then they will be endorsed by the other candidate.

What a strong campaign means is unclear but it probably means delegates, polling, and fundraising. Warren and Gabbard both have similar views on most issues and have been trying to win over Sander 2016 voters and anti-establishment voters. Warren has done a much better job of winning over the progressive voters that went for Sanders but Gabbard has built a strong base of anti-establishment voters.

Gabbard does look like she may have a good day on Super Tuesday III since she looks likey to win in landslides in Hawaii and Alaska and has been pulling close with Warren in Washington. Still, Warren has a delegate lead over Gabbard that doesn't look like it can be Trumped.



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FiveThirtyEight 2020 Guberational and General Election Prediction
March 13th, 2020

FiveThirtyEight- the election may be months away but the campaigns at local levels are just starting up and getting fierce. FiveThirtyEight is ready to update our predictions for both the gubernatorial and general election and will update every week up to the day of the election.

22 D (-1)-28 R (+1)

Competive Races
Montana (Lean R)
Unknown (R) vs Unknown (D)

The race in Montana will change daramticly by the time of election day. The primary has been proven very competitive in both parties and has no clear frontrunner at this point. Still, At this point, the race is looking to be flipped to the Republicans with all their candidates being strong candidates in the pretty red state. Republicans almost flipped the state in 2016 with Steve Bullock barely pulling out a win but with the state to likely go to the president and there is no incumbent to win over some voters.

In the Democratic party, the primary is in a basically three-way tie between the Litneut Governor, Mike Conney, Former State Representative Kathleen Williams and the daughter of a former Representative, Whitney Williams. K. Williams won an upset in the primary for the only congressional district in 2018 and nearly upset the Republican Representative, Greg Gianforatine. Cooney is the establishment favorite and has been pouring money into the state. W. Wilson has been winning over the few progressives in the state and could be a liability in the general election but she has an advantage in the ever-far left party.

The Republican, on the other hand, is a tossup between three candidates again and all who have won statewide. Tim Cox, the Attorney General, was the first to announce his campaign but he wasn't alone for long with the Sectary of State jumping in the race soon after. Cox and the Secretary of State, Corey Stapleton, are both close behind the frontrunner and Auditor, Matt Rosendale who lost the election for Senate against Jon Tester. All have experience winning statewide which has allowed them to have the advantage in the general election but all could change quickly.


West Virginia (Lean R)
Governor Jim Justice (R) vs Unknown (D)

Jim Justice has had a tough primary fight and might not even make out of the primary. Justice was a former Democrat who gained national attention when he announced he was changing his party registration at a President Trump rally. For a short period, his favorabilities were a bit boosted from Republicans but his favorbilties didn't hold. At this point, Justice has just sixty percent of West Virginian Republicans and the rest of West Virginia held him at thirty-nine to forty-one percent favorable. Justice is still running in a primary against a former West Virginia Delegate and Representative David McKinley who has brought the race much closer than comfort.

If Justice can pull off a victory then he has another challenge in the general election against either of his potential opponents. Former Presidential candidate and Former State Senator Richard Ojeda and Former Sectary of State Natalie Tennant are both running for the nomination and are in a close fight. Ojeda launched his campaign soon after his failed gambit for president and was running against Tennant who was pushed into the race by the DGA. The chairman of the Democratic Gubernatorial Committee Phil Murphy was reportedly outraged by Ojeda's entrance since Tennant had a fairly easy path to the nomination without him in the race.

Both Ojeda and Tennant will make worthy opponents to Justice but the race may become much more Republican if anyone wins the primary other than Justice.


(268 D)-(217 R)-(0 I)-(53 Tossup)

The Democrats are heavily favored to take back the White House by election day and our latest report is giving Democrats a sixty percent chance to win, President Trump has thirty-eight percent chance and Howard Schultz has a two percent chance to win. Trump has been severely weekend by his primary opponent who has done much better than expected and has shown his weakness in the northeast. Bill Weld's presidential run may have helped give the Democrats the advantage in Maine and New Hampshire where he was able to show the divide in the Republican party.

The Democrats have hurt their chances at winning with a divided nomination and with the election still being unknown. Democrats still can have much more hurt if they go into contested convection which is almost guaranteed at this point if it remains this contest. At this point, no candidate has a path to victory and will have to fight it out with party insiders in Wisconsin for their convection. The strongest candidates in the field are Amy Klobuchar, Sherrod Brown, Beto O'Rourke and John Hickenlooper and if any of them win the nomination then the map could grow much bluer (or red for atlas). The other candidates specifically Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Tulsi Gabbard could hurt the chances at winning in the general election because their far-left, close to socialist views.

The third candidate in the race, Howard Schultz has gained momentum over the last few weeks as the parties primaries have become more competitive and more centrist candidates have been pushed out. Schultz has yet to gain big name endorsements as many moderate Republicans are backing Weld and waiting for his suspension to endorse Schult's campaign while many Democrats are trying to fall in line which has always been a trouble for their party. Schultz main base of voters is the suburban Republicans who left the party after Trump was nominated, think of Gary Johnson and Evan McMullin voters plus Republican Clinton supporters. Schultz has a big opportunity and could even win a few electoral votes especially in Maine and Nebraska where he has been second and close thirds in both districts that are close. Schultz is also polling second in Utah with the backing McMullin who almost ran himself.





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John Hickenlooper Attacks Pro-Choice Extermist
March 16th, 2020

The Hill- Former Governor John Hickenlooper in a speech in Arizona attacked Senators in the presidential race for voting against a bill to make killing a baby after it was born alive after a botched abortion illegal. Hickenlooper is aiming for a good performance in Arizona and says if he doesn't win then he may drop out of the race. Hickenlooper has said he is hopeful and knows he can win in Arizona since he has strong Hispanic support that has led him to victory in Idaho and Colorado.

Hickenlooper has received the endorsement of a few high profile Democrats in the state including from former Gubernational candidate David Garcia. Hickenlooper is in a close fight with Beto O'Rourke who has also made a base out of Hispanic support and Kamala Harris who has her state bordering Arizona and won the two states surrounding Arizona. Harris and O'Rourke have both been trying to hedge their bets in other areas other than Arizona which could benefit Hickenlooper. Hickenlooper has been second and third in polls of Arizona but hopes for a late boost to push him over the top.

Hickenlooper in his rally called out Democrats support of 'inficidile' and saying, "The Republicans for years have been calling us murders. I think those Senators like Amy Klobuchar proved them right last year." and he went on later in his rally to say, "The American is like many within the Democratic party, we are sickened by are representatives supporting murdering living things. Truly, if the Republicans play the issue of abortion then they could win."

Hickenlooper has had a centrist past but this is the first attacks lobbied against what he called 'extremist' in his own party. The DNC chair has stated that he hoped the primary wouldn't get nasty to protect the nominee and hopes "John stops because he will be the one giving Republicans the win in November."



CNN Poll of National General Election
Sample Size: 1,034
Generic Democrat: 41.2%
Donald Trump: 36.4%
Howard Schultz: 12.3%
Generic Libertarian: 1.0%
Undecided: 9.1%

Gallup Poll of West Virginia Gubertarional Election
Sample Size: 194
Richard Ojeda: 48.6%
Jim Justice: 48.1%
Undecided: 3.3%

New York Times Live Poll of IA-01
Sample Size: 500
Abby Finkenauer: 47.9%
Ashley Hinson: 46.7%
Undecided: 5.4%

RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Beto O'Rourke: 17.5% (+0.9)
Kamala Harris: 14.7% (+0.6)
Sherrod Brown: 10.6% (+5.6)
Amy Klobuchar: 9.5% (+0.7)
Kristen Gillibrand: 9.4% (+1.8 )
Cory Booker: 9.2% (+0.5)
Elizabeth Warren: 8.9% (+0.1)
John Hickenlooper: 8.2%(+4.3)
Tulsi Gabbard: 7.1% (+1.0)
Undecided: 10.2% (-4.1)
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« Reply #61 on: March 01, 2019, 09:41:52 pm »

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Super Tuesday III: Its Going Be a Contested Convection
Booker and Hickenlooper Suspend Bids
March 17th, 2020

Politico- Once again, more Democratic contest have not made the results any clearer. the former Representative from Texas and 2018 rockstar candidate that almost took out Ted Cruz, Beto O'Rourke, came out on top once again with impressive wins in Arizona and Florida. O'Rourke was once again able to prove his strength with Hispanic voters and the energy around his campaign that even allowed him a surprisingly good performance in Utah. The good performance allowed O'Rourke to take the second spot in delegates and got much closer to the current delegate frontrunner, Kamala Harris.

Harris also was able to have a good performance but the second place in Florida might have ruined her night but she did hold off a surge for Kirsten Gillibrand in the state. Harris retained her title as the frontrunner of delegates again which has held for all of March. Harris is still far away from the needed amount of delegates which is over 2,200 delegates which means she is over one thousand delegates away.

Still, Harris is the closest to the needed amount of delegates with three candidates in particular much further behind. Kirsten Gillibrand, Tulsi Gabbard, and Elizabeth Warren all did reasonably well with Tulsi Gabbard having a great night but they are almost certain, not able to win the nomination on the first with not enough delegates remaining. Even winning all delegates remaining, all three couldn't win the nomination but that is just considering everyone else dropping out which will not happen.

Some candidates see the writing on the wall, knowing that the convection will almost certainly be contested leading to division in the general election. That was one of the reasons both Cory Booker and John Hickenlooper gave as they suspended their campaigns. Hickenlooper ran as a centrist and won two states but bad results in the neighboring state of Utah and in the state of Arizona bassically forced Hickenlooper to suspend as he fell far behind every other challenger in delegates. Booker remained in the middle of the delegate pack but little states looked likely to support Booker execpt New Jersey and Arkansas and both couldn't save his campaign or even come soon enough to save the campaign.


Former Representative Beto O'Rourke (D-TX): (145)
1st:
Arizona, Florida

2nd:

3rd:
Utah, Hawaii

Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA): (129)
1st:
Utah

2nd:
Florida, Arizona

3rd:
Washington, Alaska

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY): (103)
1st:

2nd:
Ilinios

3rd:
Florida

Represenative Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI): (86)
1st:
Alaska, Hawaii

2nd:
Washington

3rd:

Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): (80)
1st:
Illinois

2nd:

3rd:

Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): (53)
1st:
Washington

2nd:
Alaska, Hawaii

3rd:

Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH): (45)
1st:

2nd:

3rd:
Illinios

Former Governor John Hickenlooper: (43)
1st:

2nd:
Utah

3rd:
Arizona

Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ): (41)
1st:

2nd:

3rd:


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Trump Wins Nomination
Weld Suspends Campaign
March 17th, 2020

The Hill- President Trump has officialy secured the delegates to win the nomination. Trump was able to put away his primary challenge from Former Governor Bill Weld who had been able to win almost twenty percent of the delegates. Weld called Trump early in the night knowing there was no way he would hold Trump under the needed delegates and conceded. The call was similar to that of Hillary Clinton's call in 2016 according to a high level Trump aide and he said there will be no love lost.

Weld did win Utah and all forty delegates since he reached sixty percent of the vote which was his fourth win. Weld had already won Vermont, Maine and Washington D.C. but what hurt Weld was his inabilty to appeall to southern conservative who handed hundreds of delegates to Trump has he crushed Weld's challenge. Weld has been able to weaken the president and show the weakeast areas for the president, specifically Independts which powered the late Trump surge in 2016.

Trump had a large victory rally where he had Ronna McDaniels and mutiple other state Republican chairpeople inculding Florida, Ohio and Califronia. Trump claimed victory and was boosting of his performanc, "I didn't even try, he was bassically begging voters to vote for him. I am actually try in the general election and we will win by an even bigger margin than four years ago, you can take that to the bank."

Trump does have a lot to celebrate but he really didn't try then he allowed over two hundred hostile delegates to go to his convection which could cause major problems. Weld will be bringing two undred plus delegates and Ann Coulter will be bringing five delegates meaning Trump will have to fend off from a hostile crowd that his both on President Trump's right and left. If those two hundred delegates ruin the convection then Trump may have created a huge problem for him in the primary.


Official Republican Florida Primary on March 17th, 2020
99 Delegates
Donald Trump: 86.7% (99)
Bill Weld: 13.3%

Official Republican Illinios Primary on March 17th, 2020
69 Delegates
Donald Trump: 78.2% (67)
Bill Weld: 21.8% (2)

Official Republican Missouri Primary on March 17th, 2020
52 Delegates
Donald Trump: 91.5% (52)
Bill Weld: 8.5%

Official Republican North Carolina Primary on March 17th, 2020
72 Delegates
Donald Trump: 80.6% (68)
Bill Weld: 19.4% (4)

Official Republican Northern Marines Caucus on March 17th, 2020
9 Delegates
Donald Trump: 61.3% (6)
Bill Weld: 38.7% (3)


Official Republican Ohio Primary on March 17th, 2020
66 Delegates
Donald Trump: 82.7% (66)
Bill Weld: 13.3%

Official Republican Arizona Primary on March 17th, 2020
58 Delegates
Donald Trump: 76.5% (54)
Bill Weld: 23.5% (4)

Official Republican American Somoa Primary on March 17th, 2020
9 Delegates
Donald Trump: 54.7% (5)
Bill Weld: 45.3% (4)

Official Republican Utah Primary on March 17th, 2020
40 Delegates
Bill Weld: 60.2% (40)
Donald Trump: 39.8%



Democrats Delegate Count
2,644/4,051
Kamala Harris: 468
Beto O'Rourke: 409
Sherrod Brown: 332
Joe Biden: 323
Amy Klobuchar: 284
Cory Booker: 227
Kristen Gillibrand: 181
Tulsi Gabbard: 151
Elizabeth Warren: 143
Julian Castro: 142
John Hickenlooper: 122
Eric Swalwell: 94
Jeff Merkley: 80
Bernie Sanders: 59
Terry McAullife: 50
Michael Bennet: 27
Bill De Blasio: 10
Stacey Abrams: 6
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Andrew Gillum: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1

Republican Delegate Count
1,553/2,472
Donald Trump: 1,315
Bill Weld: 233
Ann Coulter: 5

New York Times Live Poll of NE-02 Presidential Election
Donald Trump: 35.2%
Howard Schultz: 32.9%
Generic Democrat: 25.1%
Undecided: 6.8%

MSNBC Poll of North Carolina Senate Election
Anthony Foxx: 45.6%
Thom Tillis: 44.9%
Undecided: 9.5%

Universty of Utah Poll of Utah Guberntioral Election
Spencer Cox: 69.8%
Jim Matheson: 21.0%
Undecided: 9.2%

DCCC Poll of NC-09 Congressional Race
Dan McCready: 50.1%
Dan Bishop: 40.6%
Jeff Scott: 0.3%
Undecided: 9.0%

DCCC Poll of NC-02 Congressional Race
George Holding: 42.3%
Scott Cooper: 40.6%
Undecided:17.1%
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« Reply #62 on: March 03, 2019, 10:30:22 am »

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Justin Amash Launches Insugent Libertarian Presidential Bid
March 22nd, 2020

New York Post- With President Trump almost guaranteed renomination with the latest primary pushing his only competitor left, Bill Weld, out of the race. Weld has yet to endorse President Trump and has said he will not be endorsing Trump but will endorse either the Libertarian candidate or Howard Schultz. Multiple serious Libertarians have started to run and have aimed for the nomination including two former Representative but some wanted to wait till the former Libertarian turned Republican primary challenger drop out to launch their bids.

One of those waiting till Weld suspended his campaign was Representative Justin Amash. Amash had been building a campaign operation and been fueling speculation of a possible bid for months but has said he wouldn't run unless Weld suspended his campaign. Amash launched his bid on March 21st in a video put out on twitter and has a speech in Washington D.C. on the twenty-fifth to officially launch his bid.

Weld is the best known of the field and has made a name for himself as a maverick within his own party-bucking leadership often especially when it has to do with issues such as criminal justice and marijuana. This has gained him praise from the media but many within his party especially some high profile leadership have shown their disgust with Amash and his followers in the Congress like Thomas Massie of Kentucky.

Weld still may have a hard time winning the nomination since all delegates choose at the convection and many hard-core Libertarians do not want to nominate another former Republican. With so many former Republicans running in the field like Former Representative Joe Walsh and Joe Campbell may allow the most popular Libertarian in the race, Larry Sharpe, to succeed. Sharpe has a large following within the party and could surprise some pundits who believe the most likely winners will be Amash, Campbel, and Walsh.



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Chances of A Contested Convection
March 27th, 2020

FiveThirtyEight- After all the March primaries were finished in grand fashion on Super Tuesday III, Politico reported that it would almost certainly be contested convection. We decided to look at the likeliness of all the candidates winning on the ballots and almost all have to win almost all of the remaining delegates. A representative from the Chari of the DNC, Tom Perez, has stated the Democrats are prepared for contested convection but Perez will try to force candidates out before the candidates so they can be unified at the convection.

Now let's take a look at the numbers of how many delegates the candidates each need to win:


Chances of Candidate Winning on First Ballot
Delegates Remaining: 1,407
Delegates Needed: 2,025.5
Kamala Harris: 110.7%
Beto O'Rourke: 114.9%
Sherrod Brown: 120.4%
Amy Klobuchar: 123.8%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 131.1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 133.2%
Elizabeth Warren: 133.8%

This chart means that the convection will automatically be contested even if every candidate drops out except one which is very unlikely no matter how hard Perez tries to push candidates out of the race. Most candidates will be aiming to win every last delegate to make the second ballot easier on them but once no candidate wins the needed amount then the candidates will make a free for all for all uncommitted delegates which would be for those who already dropped out like Eric Swalwell and Joe Biden who both carry large amounts of delegates.

What could help candidates with those uncommitted delegates who will vote on the second ballot is the endorsement of the candidate they were pledged to. Already, Swalwell endorsed Harris but some other candidates like Hickenlooper and Booker are waiting till the convection to announce endorsements which could make them have a greater effect on the delegate's mindset.



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Ro Khanna Annouces Exploratory Commitee
March 31st, 2020

Huffington Post- Represenative Ro Khanna endorsed Senator Bernie Sanders early on in the contest. Khanna had been an active supporter of Sanders and served as Co-Chair of his campaign. When Sanders ended his campaign, Khanna announced he would run as a green party candidate since he believed the party would move too far to the right. Still, Khanna announced he wouldn't run unless Elizabeth Warren loses the nomination. Warren still is running and has not lost but it is very unlikely that she will win and is impossible for her to win on the first ballot.

Khanna mentioned in his press release launching his exploratory committee Warren's run for president. Khanna stated, "I will end my enduver on the spot if Elizabeth Warren wins the nomination but I must launch my bid now so I can make a serious effort to make the country take a left-wing swing." and Khanna also stated the unlikeliness of Warren getting nominated. Khanna continued in his statement to say, "Most likely we won't win but the goal of this campaign is changing the way people think."

Khanna has already received the endorsement from former nominee Green nominee, Jill Stein, who earlier endorsed her former vice-presidential choice. Stein stated, "I continued to support Baraka but I can't support his bid for president, I don't believe he will be taken as a serious candidate." and Khanna earned the endorsement of former State Senator and one of the other Sander's former Co-Chair, Nina Turner.



RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Beto O'Rourke: 20.8% (+3.3)
Kamala Harris: 18.8% (+4.1)
Amy Klobuchar: 12.1% (+2.6)
Sherrod Brown: 10.9% (+0.3)
Elizabeth Warren: 10.0% (+1.1)
Kristen Gillibrand: 9.9% (+0.5)
Tulsi Gabbard: 8.6% (+1.5)
Undecided: 12.1% (+3.9)

Fox News Poll of General Election Nationaly
Generic Democrat: 37.7%
Donald Trump: 31.5%
Howard Schultz: 17.6%
Generic Libertarian: 2.4%
Generic Green: 0.9%
Undecided: 9.9%

New York Times Live Poll of OH-07
Larry Obhof: 52.6%
Ken Harbaugh: 44.7%
Undecided: 2.7%

Morining Consult Poll of Arizona Senate
Mark Kelly: 49.6%
Martha McSally: 49.1%
Undecided: 1.3%

NBC Poll of Colorado Senate
Cary Kennedy: 46.7%
Cory Gardner: 44.2%
Undecided: 9.1%

Houston Gazette Poll of Texas Senate
John Coryn: 49.7%
Joaquin Castro: 46.2%
Undecided: 4.1%
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« Reply #63 on: March 03, 2019, 06:06:33 pm »

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Is Winning Congress Out of Reach For Republicans
April 2nd, 2020

New York Times- The latest polls show Democrats winning up to two-hundred and thirty-five seats and at the minimum, two-hundred twenty. Now, the election is far away and Democrats don't even have a clear nominee but do Republicans have a chance to take back the Senate. After the brutal beating that Republicans took in the 2018 midterms and then losing the North Carolina 9th district in 2019 has given a very big pillow for the Democrats for them to lose a few seats. Still, Democrats might not even lose districts overall, in some races where they lost in 2018 have started to sway towards Democrats.

In the latest few polls by the New York Times, multiple races that Democrats that lost in 2018 are moving to the Democrats in 2020. In New York's 27th District where the incumbent, Chris Collins, was indicted and won by a little over one percent in 2018. Collins is now losing the race by two and three points to his opponent, Nate McMurray. In Georgia 7th district, Carolyn Bourdeaux is leading in her district by five to six percent in the race she lost by less than one thousand votes in 2018. In Texas's 23rd district, Will Hurd is losing to his opponent, Liz Wahl.

Still, Republicans have started to try and win some areas that Democrats won just two years earlier. Republicans are hoping to flip seats in Iowa, Oklahoma, New Jersey and New Mexico.  Republicans hope to win many of those districts with women candidates since that proved so successful for Democrats in 2018.  Republicans can pick up seats and look likely to win some seats but it is unlikely that they will win over the house.



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It's Warren-Gabbard; Gabbard Suspends Campaign and is named VP
April 7th, 2020

Fox News-Represenative Tulsi Gabbard has suspended her campaign and has been named the vice-presidential choice of Elizabeth Warren. Gabbard's campaign had been gaining steam and recently won Alaska and Hawaii and bypassed Warren in delegates but all wasn't bright from the campaign. Since the begging of the campaign, Gabbard had struggled with fundraising and had not turned around her polls even while many of her competitors were dropping out of the race. Early in March, both Gabbard and Warren agreed to a Pact where the candidate doing worse would suspend their campaign and endorse the opponent, it was not known till today that Warren was planning on putting Gabbard on the ticket.

If nominated or even elected then this would be the first female president, first female vice-president and first all-women ticket. Already, Warren discusses the historical significance in the video realized announcing the ticket. Warren in the video said, "We are breaking new ground with this all-women ticket and our opponents may say American is not ready. Well, we will make them ready for strong women in the White House." and Gabbard stated, "I am proud to be on team Warren and join the team as we blaze a new path for women across this country."

Already, Republican research firms were making fun of Warren/Gabbard ticket for Warren's Native American heritage claims. The RNC stated, "American is ready for an all-woman ticket but they aren't and never will be ready for an insane, socialist ticket." Warren's campaign responded to the criticism on Twitter by stating, "It seemed America was ready for an insane ticket four years ago when they elected your candidate."

Never has announcing a vice-presidential choice before the convection been a very wise idea for a candidate but it could be different since it is certain that it will be contested convection. Four years earlier, Ted Cruz announced his VP choice as Carly Fiorina and by the end of the month, the ticket was over. In 1976, Ronald Reagan chooses a moderate senator from Pennsylvania and caused an uproar from his own supporters which killed his bid.


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Gillibrand Scores Win in New York, Warren wins Wyoming, Brown Wins Wisconsin
April 19th, 2020

CBS- Senator Kirsten Gillibrand almost doubled her delegate amount in just one night with an austhonting victory in her home state of New York where she won over one-hundred and fifty delegates. Gillibrand didn't perform very well in the other states but she knew she wouldn't win any of those states and focused all her efforts on her home state so she could pick up as many delegates as possible since, at this point, it is very much a delegate fight to the convection. At her victory rally in downtown New York City, Gillibrand claimed victory and went into attacks on her opponent, Elizabeth Warren. Gillibrand stated that New York was the ticket to the convection she needed to win and the momentum that will get her wins in the northeast next week.

On her attacks on Warren, Gillibrand stated that Warren wanted the DNC to crown her as the nominee and said naming Tulsi Gabbard as VP so early in the race was premature and proved that her bid was dying. Gillibrand also claimed that Warren's bid was "dying from the start. All she has done in this race is force contested convection."

Warren has been riding on momentum since announcing Gabbard as VP even though she had some attacks from Gillibrand and other Democrats. Other Democrats include Tom Perez who had one of his conversation leaked from the Washington Post with Perez stating, "What was Warren thinking? That is will miraculously save her campaign and save our chances at winning? This is Bull S***, this will do nothing but make us more divided." Still, Warren and Gabbard have been riding high passing multiple opponents in the polls and allowing her to have a strong second place in New York and a win in Wyoming which was a toss up a few days ago.

Warren and Gillibrand weren't the only candidates to win a state, Senator Sherrod Brown also won in Wisconsin. Brown and Senator Amy Klobuchar were 0.2% away from each other in the final result of the state that was a tossup to lean Brown in the last week. Klobuchar hoped her coming from a neighboring state would help but she still came up short in the final results. Klobuchar stated that she will go to the convection no matter what which was a phrase multiple other candidates repeated like Senator Kamala Harris and Beto O'Rourke who both didn't win states either.


Official Democrat New York Primary on April 19th, 2020
291 Delegates
Kirsten Gillibrand: 45.7% (151)
Elizabeth Warren: 23.2% (75)
Kamala Harris: 14.9% (45)
Sherrod Brown: 9.1% (20)
Beto O'Rourke: 4.8%
Amy Klobuchar: 2.3%

Official Democrat Wyoming Primary on April 19th, 2020
18 Delegates
Elizabeth Warren: 24.3% (5)
Beto O'Rourke: 19.1% (4)
Sherrod Brown: 19.0% (4)
Amy Klobuchar: 17.4% (3)
Kamala Harris: 10.9% (2)
Kirsten Gillibrand: 9.3%

Official Democrat Wisconsin Primary on April 19th, 2020
96 Delegates
Sherrod Brown: 40.2% (50)
Amy Klobuchar: 40.0% (46)
Beto O'Rourke: 8.8%
Elizabeth Warren: 6.5%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 3.4%
Kamala Harris: 1.1%


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Delaney Joins Schultz on the Ticket; Annouces He's On All 50 States Ballots
April 23rd, 2020

ABC- Just a week after Senator Elizabeth Warren announced her vice-presidential choice as Representative Tulsi Gabbard, another candidate is naming his vice-presidential choice. Howard Schultz in a rally in Baltimore, Maryland that his running mate would be the former presidential candidate and former Representative John Delaney. Delaney represented a district just outside of Baltimore and had a moderate record in Congress which is one of the main reason why Schultz chooses Delaney as his vice-president.

Delaney had done the best in Iowa where he overperformed and won three delegates to the convection. Delaney ended his bid after a bad performance in South Carolina. While running for president, Delaney ran as a pragmatic, bipartisan candidate and had hoped he would stand out in that way but he was running against multiple other pragmatic candidates like Amy Klobuchar, John Hickenlooper, and Joe Biden.

Schultz in his rally also announced that he had fifty state access to ballots but in the process found the problems with ballot access stating, "Sectary of States have made it harder and harder across this county to run as an Independent. That is why so few people want to take the risk then they go to one of the two major parties and to win they have to pander to the extremist in the parties." and Schultz went on to say, "John and I are committed to fixing our democracy that is so broken that it has allowed corruption to run rampant in its current system."



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Unlikely that Amash or Sharpe will win on First Ballot
April 26th, 2020

Reason- A little over a month ago, Representative Justin Amash launched his bid for the Libertarian nomination for president further divining the party ahead of the convection. Amash has stated he has already raised two million dollars and has already been interviewed on all major news networks. Amash hopes to make the Libertarian Party mainstream with a mainstream voice which he said he hoped Gary Johnson would be in 2016.

Still, Amash is not the only one in the race or even the only fundraising machine in the race either. Amash is running against two other former Representatives, a former television committor, a former gubertarional nominee and a few low polling candidates that include a billionaire executive. Amash is running neck and neck with Larry Sharpe who was the runner up for vice-president in 2016 and the nominee for governor of New York in 2018. Sharpe has raised over two million but over a much bigger period of time but has a large following among Libertarians.

Sharpe and Amash have a pretty large lead over the closet opponents but both Amash and Sharpe don't look likely to win on the first ballot which they need fifty percent to win. Amash and Sharpe are both far away from the needed amount and will probably take a few ballots till they win the nomination. This was a poll of one hundred delegates that will be attending the national convention.


Reason Poll of National Libertarian Delegates
Justin Amash: 21%
Larry Sharpe: 19%
Tom Campbell: 11%
Joe Walsh: 10%
John McAfee: 8%
Sam Sedar: 7%
Adam Kokesh: 7%
Arvin Vohar: 2%
Undecided: 14%


MSNBC Poll of Maine Senate
Susan Collins: 48.7%
Betsy Sweet: 40.6%
Undecided: 10.7%

Fox News Poll of NY-27th Congressional Race
Nate McMurray: 50.6%
Chris Collins: 46.0%
Undecided: 3.4%

FiveThirtyEight Average Poll of General Election
Generic Democrat: 36.5%
Donald Trump: 32.0%
Howard Schultz: 20.7%
Generic Libertarian: 3.1%
Generic Green: 1.2%
Undecided: 6.5%

CNN Poll of Ohio's Presidential Election
Donald Trump: 41.2%
Generic Demorat: 40.9%
Howard Schultz: 9.6%
Undecided: 8.3%
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« Reply #64 on: March 03, 2019, 08:44:50 pm »

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THROW IT IN THE T R A S H

(Good timeline tho)
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« Reply #65 on: March 07, 2019, 06:48:49 pm »

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Gillibrand Shows Streagnth in Northeast
April 28th, 2020

AP- Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has surged into third place with delegates and has won three more states giving her a big boost into May. Gillibrand has claimed victory and has stated she has been aiming to win the nomination. Gillibrand in her rally in Concord, stated, "We are almost at five hundred delegates and we will be fighting for every single last delegate till we win this nomination in Wisconsin!" Tonight, Gillibrand did have a lot to celebrate. She was able to win in three crucial states and come in second in two others which allowed her to win over one hundred and fifty delegates. Now, the momentum is on the side of Gillibrand. Recently, Warren has been riding high with an early announced vice-president being Representative Tulsi Gabbard but Warren was only able to win one primary and has in dead last in delegates even though she has inched closer to taking over fifth place from Amy Klobuchar.

Senator Sherrod Brown was the other victor of the night with a stunning victory in Pennsylvania where he was able to win with an almost whole sweep of the east half of the state. The good news for Brown didn't end with a strong win in Pennsylvania coming after a win in Wisconsin, Brown also has a very good map coming up in May. Brown has strong poll numbers in Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky and Nebraska. Brown may even pull off an upset in Arkansas where Senator Kamala Harris has been trying to turn around her numbers.

Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar didn't have great nights but all three have very good fundraising and have pledged to go till the convection. Klobuchar and O'Rourke have been said to already have started to vet Vice-Presidential Candidates.


Official Democrat Connecitucut Primary on April 28th, 2020
71 Delegates
Kirsten Gillibrand: 41.9% (41)
Elizabeth Warren: 33.7% (21)
Sherrod Brown: 12.4% (9)
Beto O'Rourke: 5.4%
Amy Klobuchar: 4.6%
Kamala Harris: 2.0%

Official Democrat Rhode Island Primary on April 28th, 2020
33 Delegates
Elizabeth Warren: 35.1% (14)
Kirsten Gillibrand: 34.2% (11)
Beto O'Rourke: 15.6% (7)
Sherrod Brown: 7.7% (1)
Amy Klobuchar: 3.8%
Kamala Harris: 3.6%

Official Democrat Pennyslavnia Primary on April 28th, 2020
209 Delegates
Sherrod Brown: 25.3% (94)
Kirsten Gillibrand: 21.5% (55)
Amy Klobuchar: 21.2% (45)
Beto O'Rourke: 13.8% (13)
Kamala Harris: 10.2% (2)
Elizabeth Warren: 8.0%

Official Democrat Maryland Primary on April 28th, 2020
119 Delegates
Kirsten Gillibrand: 35.6% (47)
Kamala Harris: 32.8% (39)
Sherrod Brown: 16.9% (25)
Beto O'Rourke: 8.3% (7)
Amy Klobuchar: 4.2% (1)
Elizabeth Warren: 2.2%

Official Democrat Deleware Primary on April 28th, 2020
32 Delegates
Kirsten Gillibrand: 23.9% (12)
Kamala Harris: 21.7% (10)
Elizabeth Warren: 18.3% (5)
Amy Klobuchar: 14.8% (3)
Beto O'Rourke: 11.2% (1)
Sherrod Brown: 10.1% (1)


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Amy Klobuchar Annouces Short List For VP
May 1st, 2020

CNN- Senator Amy Klobuchar has had a rough few weeks with a loss in two midwest states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Klobuchar has started to fall behind her midwest opponent, Senator Sherrod Brown. Brown has been sweeping up midwest states and looks likely to pick up a few more in May with Klobuchar falling into second in multiple states and even fourth in Kentucky. Klobuchar is hoping to turn around the bad luck.

With an early announcement, Senator Elizabeth Warren had a surge in the polls with Representative Tulsi Gabbard in the Vice-Presidential spot. Klobuchar has taken note of Warren's surge that helped her win good performances in New York and a win in Wyoming. Klobuchar and her campaign announced a list of potential vice-president and announced that Klobuchar would announce her vice-president by May 25th.

Most of Klobuchar's list is western progressive democrats and in her list announcement, Klobuchar talked about what she was looking at with a vice-president. The email sent to the press with the list stated, "Klobuchar has started to vet vice-presidential choices and is looking at progressive democratic heroes that can work with Amy to unite the United States from sea to shining sea."

Klobuchar list includes:
-Governor Steve Bullock (D-MT)
-Governor Jay Inslee (D-WA)
-Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR)
-Representative Eric Swalwell (D-CA)
-Representative Ayanna Pressley (D-MA)
-Representative Chris Pappas (D-NH)



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Perez Warns Democratic Candidates to Unite
May 4th, 2020

DNC-With the primary almost over, it is clear that at the Democratic Convention will be contested convection. That means the Democratic National Committee will have to take money away from the general election fight with president Donald Trump to continue the primaries and have a bigger amount of room for the convection showdown.

If the candidates wish for a united front to beat Trump and his bigoted agenda then they must have the fewest candidates as possible at the convection so the DNC doesn't have to spend more money then they have to at the Convection to make it successful. That means candidates that have no clear path to the nomination will have to suspend before the convection. Candidates and staff must figure out if they have the path to the nomination.



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Brown Wins Both West Virginia and Indiana; Brown Annouces Inslee as VP
May 12th, 2020

Politico- Three contest were held tonight, Guam, Indiana and West Virginia. In a near sweep, Senator Sherrod Brown won both West Virginia and Indiana that are both neigboring states to his homestate of Ohio. Brown has been gaining momutum after an impressive win in Pennsylvania and then winning the endorsment of Former Senator Joe Donnely of Indiana helped propeled him to impressive victories over his closet competor, Senator Amy Klobuchar. Klobuchar had shortend Brown's lead in the final days with an endorsment from former Senator Evan Bayh but with Donnelly's endorsment of Brown, there was little to prevent a victory.

Brown also delt anouther blow to Klobuchar by annoucing his vice-presidential choice, one of the few that were on Klobuchar's short list. The vice-presidential choice was Governor Jay Inslee who ran his campaign as a climate change warrior and mainly ran on that issue. Inslee has one delegate to the convection but his real help could come in Oregon in a week which is a neighbor to his homestate of Washington. The campaign believes that if Brown wins Oregon then Senator Warren is bassically down with no momtum into the convection unless she pulls off an upset and Brown also believes he would have delt a major blow to Kamala Harris who also is neigbors to Oregon.

Brown was riding high this evening and he had a lot to celebrate, dealing major blows to Klobuchar
and winnign ever states execpt Guam. Guam voted overwhemilying for Warren who had a landslide over her closets oppent, Beto O'Rourke, who was recorginzing his efforts to focus on Nebraska, New Mexico and winning over delegates.


Official West Virginia Democratic Primary on May 12th, 2020
37 Delegates
Sherrod Brown: 62.5% (28)
Amy Klobuchar: 23.8% (9)
Beto O'Rourke: 7.0%
Elizabeth Warren: 4.3%
Kamala Harris: 1.4%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1.1%

Official Indiana Democratic Primary on May 12th, 2020
92 Delegates
Sherrod Brown: 34.3% (42)
Amy Klobuchar: 34.0% (41)
Elizabeth Warren: 16.7% (7)
Beto O'Rourke: 9.7% (2)
Kirsten Gillibrand: 4.1%
Kamala Harris: 1.2%

Official Guam Democratic Primary on May 12th, 2020
12 Delegates
Elizabeth Warren: 66.4% (10)
Beto O'Rourke: 22.8% (2)
Kamala Harris: 7.3%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1.3%
Amy Klobuchar: 1.2%
Sherrod Brown: 1.0%



Democrats Delegate Count
3,654/4,051
Sherrod Brown: 606
Kamala Harris: 566
Kristen Gillibrand: 498
Beto O'Rourke: 445
Amy Klobuchar: 432
Joe Biden: 323
Elizabeth Warren: 280
Cory Booker: 227
Tulsi Gabbard: 151
Julian Castro: 142
John Hickenlooper: 122
Eric Swalwell: 94
Jeff Merkley: 80
Bernie Sanders: 59
Terry McAullife: 50
Michael Bennet: 27
Bill De Blasio: 10
Stacey Abrams: 6
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Andrew Gillum: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1

CNBC Poll of IN-02 Congressional Race
Jackie Walorski: 48.7%
Pete Buttigieg: 48.0%
Undecided: 3.7%

New York Times Live Poll of CA-45 Congressional Race
Katie Porter: 49.5%
Don Sedwick: 48.9%
Undecided: 1.6%

Fox News Poll of Kentucky Senate Race
Mitch McConnel: 51.0%
Amy McGarth: 47.6%
Undecided: 1.4%
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UWS
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« Reply #66 on: March 08, 2019, 08:05:49 am »
« Edited: March 10, 2019, 11:55:20 pm by UWS »

I think the DNC is definitely going to be brokered.
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« Reply #67 on: March 10, 2019, 03:05:15 pm »

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Senator Warren Annouces 500 Staff Layoffs
May 15th, 2020

NBC- Senator Elizabeth Warren has slowly lost her foothold in the race. Warren saved her campaign for a small amount of time with the announcement of Representative Tulsi Gabbard as vice-president which helped her win Wyoming but Warren's political machine is going down again. Warren has announced today that her campaign would be letting go around 500 staffers around the nation. Warren stated that "the campaign is restructuring so we have all operations ready to win in the Convection, once the convection is over every single one of the laid-off employees will be given their jobs back."

Some employees that NBC has talked to have stated they will continue to work on the campaign just with no pay till they win the convection. Two of the more than twenty of the staffers we talked to were very angered by the firings with one stating, "I was one of the main reason why Elizabeth Warren was even able to get five percent here [Iowa] and then she treats me like garbage. I will find a campaign that needs a qualified aide working for them."

Most of the laid-off staff are coming from areas that Warren did poorly in and receive little to no delegates, NBC has learned. This may mean that Warren's main goal is just to flip states that she won third and second in and expand delegate leads in the states where she won.



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Libertarian Party Realse List of Speakers for Convection
March 16th, 2020

LNC- With the convection under ten days away, the LNC or Libertarian National Convection is realizing its list of speakers for each day of the convection. The LNC has left blank areas for speeches from both the presidential and vice-presidential candidates who are yet to be known and will be known by the end of the second or third day of the convection.

May 22nd, 2020 Speakers:
-Chair Nicholas Sarwark of the Libertarian Party
-Mary Rutwark (Endorsing Sharpe)
-Debate Between 2020 Candidates: Justin Amash, Tom Campbell, John McAfee, Sam Sedar, Joe Walsh, Larry Sharpe, Arvin Vohra, and Adam Kokesh
-Ben Shapiro (Endorsing Amash)

May 23rd, 2020 Speakers:
-Vice-Chair Alex Merced of the Libertarian Party
-Austin Petersen (Endorsing Sharpe)
-Former Governor Gary Johnson
-Former Governor Bill Weld
-Former Chair Geoff Neale (Endorsing Kokesh)

May 24th, 2020 Speakers:
-Daryll Perry (Endorsing Kokesh)
-Patrick Bryne (Endorsing Campbell)
-Vice-Presidential Candidate

May 25th, 2020 Speakers:
-Patrick Bryne (Endorsing Amash)
-Jeffery Miron
-Former Representative Mark Sanford
-Presidential Candidate



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Klobuchar Wins Nebraska, Annouces Pappas as VEEP; Harris Wins Arkansas, Brown Wins Kentucky, Warren Wins Oregon
May 19th, 2020

New York Times- Once again, a week full of packed political news ends with more stunning events on the road to the White House. With the final primaries of May and four of the last primaries in the primary process, the candidates are fighting for every last delegate. Now that it is guaranteed that the Democrats will be a brokered convention, some campaigns like Elizabeth Warren and Beto O'Rourke have turned their focus away from the primaries and on to winning delegates that are claimed by a suspended campaign on the first ballot. Other candidates like Amy Klobuchar and Sherrod Brown have double down on the primary effort to win as many delegates as possible before the convention then win over other delegates.

Brown efforts in the primary have paid off and continue to pay off this week. Brown won almost all the primaries last week and have won Kentucky this week with a very close showing in Oregon that almost knocked Warren out of the number one spot. Governor Jay Inslee was the biggest surrogate in Oregon for Brown and have proved how powerful Inslee's spot is on the ticket.

Brown's efforts weren't the only ones that paid off, Klobuchar also pulled off an upset win in Nebraska where many Brown would win. Klobuchar has proved to be strong in the midwest with wins in Iowa and Michigan and is looking to win in the Dakotas to pick up some extra delegates before the convection. Klobuchar also has focused some efforts on the northeast at the convection for extra delegates. That was one area where she found modest support but hopes with a northeast VP can win over some support. That was one of the main reasons she stated in a press release why she chose freshman Representative Chris Pappas as the VP.

Pappas is the first gay member of the New Hampshire congressional delegation and endorsed Pete Buttigieg early in the primary till he dropped out when Pappas then waited till Biden dropped out to endorse Klobuchar. Pappas was announced as a "young and energetic new congressmen ready to make a change in the executive office." Even high-level staffers didn't know who the pick was till Pappas walked on stage and the banners changed to say Amy and Chris for 2020. Some top-level staffers believed the top three were Senator Jeff Merkley, Representative Eric Swalwell, and Pappas. Most staffers knew Merkley were out of the running when Oregon primary went by and some hoped it would be Swalwell since California and Swalwell have so many delegates.


Official Nerbraska Demcratic Caucus Results
30 Delegates
Amy Klobuchar: 33.7% (11)
Beto O'Rourke: 26.5% (9)
Sherrod Brown: 25.0% (8 )
Kirsten Gillibrand: 9.4% (2)
Elizabeth Warren: 3.3%
Kamala Harris: 2.1%

Official Kentucky Demcratic Primary Results
60 Delegates
Sherrod Brown: 36.8% (27)
Kamala Harris: 22.3% (21)
Beto O'Rourke: 18.9% (8 )
Amy Klobuchar: 11.2% (3)
Elizabeth Warren: 10.7% (1)
Kirsten Gillibrand: 10.1%

Official Orgeon Demcratic Primary Results
74 Delegates
Elizabeth Warren: 29.1% (29)
Sherrod Brown: 28.5% (25)
Kamala Harris: 17.8% (15)
Kirsten Gillibrand: 13.9% (12)
Beto O'Rourke: 6.7% (3)
Amy Klobuchar: 2.0%

Official Arkansas Demcratic Primary Results
37 Delegates
Kamala Harris: 29.6% (17)
Beto O'Rourke: 20.4% (10)
Sherrod Brown: 15.3% (9)
Elizabeth Warren: 9.8% (1)
Amy Klobuchar: 7.5%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 7.4%


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Justin Amash Wins First Ballot, Not Nomination; Vohra Kicked Out of Race
May 22nd, 2020

Reason- The first ballot with a record number of 1,593 delegates voting had one of the closet results in Libertarian convection history on the first ballot. Congressman Justin Amash, the most outspoken Libertarian in the house, finished in first place just barely over Larry Sharpe. Amash beat Sharpe by just thirteen votes with both around twenty percent of the vote. Sharpe's main base of support is from Libertarian loyalist especially those angered by Gary Johnson's nomination in 2016. Many Sharpe supporters were hoping the party didn't nominate a former Republican.

Johnson supporters were mainly split between Amash and Tom Campbell, a former Representative from California. Some other Johnson supporters backed former Representative Joe Walsh and Larry Sharpe but much less than Amash and Campbell have received. Johnson has yet to back a candidate but his former vice-presidential candidate, Bill Weld, has signaled his support for Tom Campbell but also complimented Justin Amash. Johnson has said if the party can't decide by ballot five then he will endorse a candidate.

Amash and Sharpe are the frontrunners at this point for the nomination but Walsh, Campbell and John McAfee are close behind and all the potential of winning if there was a surprise. Three other candidates are much further behind and don't have much of a chance at the nomination. Arvin Vohra, Sam Sedar, and Adam Kokesh are all under ten percent. Kokesh was the only one of the three to achieve over one hundred delegates. Vohra was knocked out of the race since he was the last one which forces them to suspend their campaign.


Official Liberatrian First Ballot
1,593 Delegates
Justin Amash: 21.4% (342)
Larry Sharpe: 20.6% (329)
Tom Campbell: 14.8% (236)
John McAfee: 13.1% (209)
Joe Walsh: 10.9% (173)
Adam Kokesh: 9.8% (156)
Sam Sedar: 5.9% (95)
Arvin Vohra: 3.3% (53)


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Sharpe Leads Second and Third Ballot; Campbell gets Closer
May 23rd, 2020

The Hill- Larry Sharpe in the second and third ballot of the Libertarian convection has taken the lead over congressman Justin Amash. Sharpe beat Amash by three delegates in the second ballot and five delegates in the third and both candidates are around twenty-three percent in delegates when they need fifty percent. Amash and Sharpe got into a battle of words about Amash being a former Republican on the floor of the convection which energized Sharpe's supporters that hope they don't nominate a former Republican like Gary Johnson again.

Sharpe's rise in delegates also was helped by the suspension of Arvin Vohra and Sam Sedar. Vohra's delegates also went to Kokesh which helped him surge past former Representative Joe Walsh who suspended his campaign after the third ballot. Kokesh's surge with some help from Vohra delegates saved his campaign by just four votes. Kokesh is likely to have to suspend his campaign after the next ballot but he is using his voice in the race right now to push who the vice-president would be. Right now, Kokesh endorsed Kim Ruff who is also from Arizona and ran for office in Arizona in 2018 as Kokesh did. Kim Ruff isn't the only candidate running for vice-president. Joe Walsh is asking Amash and Tom Campbell for support for a potential vice-presidential bid if he runs. Walsh and Ruff are running against Judge Jim Gray who was VP in 2012 under Johnson and Travis Irvine. Gray is the frontrunner at this point but support from Kokesh has helped Ruff's chances.

Sam Sedar announced his support for Adam Kokesh and Joe Walsh announced his endorsement of Justin Amash. Sharpe was hoping for the endorsement of Sedar but he still earned some of his delegates even without the endorsement.


Official Liberatrian Second Ballot
1,593 Delegates
Larry Sharpe: 354 (22.2%)
Justin Amash: 351 (22.0%)
John McAfee: 259 (16.2%)
Tom Campbell: 241 (15.1%)
Adam Kokesh: 187 (11.7%)
Joe Walsh: 133 (8.3%)
Sam Sedar: 68 (4.2%)

Official Liberatrian Third Ballot
1,593 Delegates
Larry Sharpe: 368 (23.1%)
Justin Amash: 363 (22.7%)
Tom Campbell: 268 (16.8%)
John McAfee: 237 (14.8%)
Adam Kokesh: 179 (11.2%)
Joe Walsh: 175 (10.9%)


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Represenative Justin Amash Wins Libertarian Nomination
Amash Annouces Endorsement of Tom Campbell as Vice-President
May 24th, 2020

Politico- In a backroom deal with his chances of losing the nomination rising, Representative Justin Amash reportedly met with former Congressman Tom Campbell of California. Campbell had been in a strong third place only falling to fourth in the second ballot to John McAfee who quickly fell after. Campbell had a strong two hundred delegates firmly behind him and many came from his home state of California. Amash offered Campbell an endorsement for the vice-presidential nomination in exchange for Campbell's suspension and endorsement of Amash since it was almost certain he would have the same fate as Austin Petersen in 2016 where he had a strong base but ended up as runner up.

Amash was already expected to surge by mutiple Libertarian insiders including the Chairman, Nichlos Sarwark, who spoke with Politico and stated "yes, Amash got the endorsement of Joe Walsh so I expect a surge but I doubt that it will get him across the fifty percent. No matter what happens, Amash winning or not, the party is united and energized. That is the message coming out of the convection." Sarwark wasn't the only big name believing Amash was having a surge of support on the floor. The other frontrunner for the Libertarian nomination, Larry Sharpe and his campaign also believed the nomination chances were fading and also met with Tom Campbell to offer a similar deal.

Campbell deciled Sharpe's offer and Sharpe asked Campbell to remain in the race which he also denied since he accepted Amash's deal. Amash announced his endorsement and Campbell suspension just three hours ahead of the fourth ballot which caused a mass frenzy on the floor of the convection as Sharpe, Amash, John McAfee, and Adam Kokesh's campaigns all were fighting for every last delegate. Amash was able to come out ahead of the field receiving just over fifty percent with Kokesh, McAfee, and Sharpe all splitting the anti-former Republican vote.

Campbell survived the vice-presidential vote but almost lost to Jim Gray of Kentucky who was Gary Johnson's vice-presidential choice. Amash and Campbell are now in a five-way fight for the presidency. Amash is fighting for conservatives that don't want to see Trump's second term, libertarian votes that still need to be united and some centrist who don't want Howard Schultz who is running a Trump campaign style.



Official Liberatrian Presidential Fourth Ballot
1,593 Delegates

Justin Amash: 801 (50.3%)
Larry Sharpe: 464 (29.1%)
Adam Kokesh: 164 (10.2%)
John McAfee: 154 (9.6%)
Tom Campbell: 7 (0.4%)

Official Libertarian Vice-Presidential First Ballot
1,593 Delegates
Tom Campbell: 823 (51.7%)
Jim Gray: 589 (37.0%)
Kim Ruff: 98 (6.1%)
Travis Irvine: 83 (5.2%)



Democrats Delegate Count
3,855/4,051
Sherrod Brown: 695
Kamala Harris: 619
Kristen Gillibrand: 512
Beto O'Rourke: 475
Amy Klobuchar: 446
Joe Biden: 323
Elizabeth Warren: 311
Cory Booker: 227
Tulsi Gabbard: 151
Julian Castro: 142
John Hickenlooper: 122
Eric Swalwell: 94
Jeff Merkley: 80
Bernie Sanders: 59
Terry McAullife: 50
Michael Bennet: 27
Bill De Blasio: 10
Stacey Abrams: 6
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Andrew Gillum: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1

Monmouth Poll of the General Election
Generic Democrat: 36.4%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R): 30.3%
Howard Schultz/John Delaney (I): 18.9%
Justin Amash/Tom Campbell (L): 5.4%
Generic Green: 1.2%
Undecided: 7.8%

Emerson College Poll of AR-02 Congressional Race
French Hill (R): 49.6%
Stephanie Flower (D): 44.3%
Undecided: 6.1%
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #68 on: March 10, 2019, 04:42:07 pm »

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Trump Crushes Weld in Highly Conservative South Carolina

Fox News- President Trump not only beat Weld in South Carolina, but he also crushed Weld in the highly conservative south. Weld got some momentum coming off his closer than an expected loss in New Hampshire and earned some southern endorsements like former Georgia Congressmen Bob Barr. Still, Weld could not keep up with Donald Trump who won more than eighty percent of the vote and all of the fifty delegates in the state putting Weld far back in the delegate count.

Trump earned not only a strong delegate lead but the primary victory helped reeginze the campaign and the President who stated at his rally tonight that, "the mainstream media wanted to act like a twenty point win killed my reelection campaign, what a bunch of losers. How about a sixty percent lead over some loser opponent." Trump's campaign also announced that it already raised over one hundred thousand dollars just tonight since the South Carolina primary was called. Trump was on stage with the Vice-President, Former UN Abbasdor Nikki Haley, and Governor Henry McMaster.

Weld still continued his insurgent campaign and told the one hundred supporters that he would continue his bid all away to the convection. Weld stated, "They may say we are down but that's what they said after Iowa. We proved them wrong a week ago, we will prove them wrong in three days in Nevada. Our message of unity is working and showing how Trump has failed this nation with his division."


Official Republican South Carolina Results on Febuary 22nd, 2020
50 Delegates
Donald Trump: 83.6% (50)
Bill Weld: 15.9%
Other: 0.5%


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Kamala Harris Wins Nevada, Holder Switches Endorsment to Harris
Febuary 22nd, 2020

MSNBC- In the Nevada caucus, Senator Kamala Harris of the next door state of California came in first place in yet another close contest. This is Harris's first victory and is giving her momentum going into South Carolina which she hopes will give her a second win with its heavy African American vote. Harris victory didn't end there for the night, Harris also got the endorsement of Former Attorney General Eric Holder. Earlier in the year, Holder endorsed Mayor Andrew Gillum but explained, "I don't see a path forward for Andrew. I believe he is the future leader this nation needs but I hope he takes this as a signal to get out of the race and not further split the African-American vote."

Two Texans also had victories in the Nevada caucus, Beto O'Rourke and Julian Castro landed in the second and third spot. O'Rourke and Castro both invested heavily in Nevada in the final days after both landings in dismal spots in Iowa. Both of those candidates had heavy appeal to Latinos which could help them in future contest like California, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico. O'Rourke claimed victory in his speech and said that only see him on Super Tuesday which could be a signal that he will be skipping the South Carolina primary which is highly competitive between Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and Cory Booker.

The other candidates who have states bordering Nevada as Harris did relatively well with Senator of Colorado Michael Bennet doing the best with a spot in the top five. The other two candidates, Jeff Merkley of Oregon and John Hickenlooper of Colorado, both earned delegates and both stated they would continue on in the race.

The field continued to shrink also, the Governor of Washington Jay Inslee left the race with twenty-two candidates left. Inslee promised that he would drop out if he had a bad showing in Nevada after a poor result in New Hampshire.


Official Democratic Nevada Caucus on Febuary 22nd, 2020
43 Delegates
Kamala Harris: 18.2% (14)
Beto O'Rourke: 14.3% (9)
Julian Castro: 14.1% (6)
Joe Biden: 9.6% (4)
Michael Bennet: 7.1% (3)
Eric Swalwell: 5.7% (2)
Steve Bullock: 5.3% (2)
Jeff Merkley: 4.9% (1)
John Hickenlooper: 4.7% (1)
Jay Inslee: 3.3% (1)
Bernie Sanders: 3.2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.0%
Elizabeth Warren: 1.4%
Stacey Abrams: 1.1%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 1.0%
Cory Booker: 0.8%
Amy Klobuchar: 0.7%
Bill De Blasio: 0.4%
Andrew Gillum: 0.3%
John Delaney: 0.2%
Sherrod Brown: 0.2%
Terry McAullife: 0.1%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.0%


Democrats Delegate Count
131/4,051
Amy Klobuchar: 16
Beto O'Rourke: 16
Kamala Harris: 15
Joe Biden: 14
Elizabeth Warren: 9
Bernie Sanders: 8
Sherrod Brown: 7
John Hickenlooper: 7
Kristen Gillibrand: 6
Julian Castro: 6
Tulsi Gabbard: 5
Michael Bennet: 5
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Eric Swalwell: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Jeff Merkley: 1
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1

Republican Delegate Count
103/2,472
Donald Trump: 88
Bill Weld: 10
Ann Coulter: 5

I'm assuming Inslee will run for reelection as WA St Governor in 2020 ?
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #69 on: March 10, 2019, 04:54:28 pm »

Schultz at 18?
...how?
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Catalunya
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« Reply #70 on: March 10, 2019, 07:35:31 pm »

Yeah it's a great TL, but Schultz and Amash are polling far too high.
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terp40hitch
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« Reply #71 on: March 10, 2019, 08:58:43 pm »

Yeah it's a great TL, but Schultz and Amash are polling far too high.
Schultz at 18?
...how?
Yes, Schultz is a little high especially with his high unfavorability but with so many candidates in the Democratic race. it will be hard for unity once all those candidates suspend especially with more moderate candidates dropping out for more progressive candidates like Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris

I do disagree that Amash is polling high, if Johnson could poll at ten percent and end at three percent then Amash definitely can poll five percent since he is much less gafee friendly
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« Reply #72 on: March 12, 2019, 05:03:39 pm »

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Final Group of Primaries Vote; Harris Lays Out Convection Plan
June 16th, 2020

New York Times- The final delegates have been given away before the almost certain brokered convection. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand won the night with the most delegates and two wins in New Jersey and Washington D.C. which helped her gain over one hundred delegates and push her into second place just behind Senator Sherrod Brown who retained a wide lead over the field even without winning any states in tonight's primary. Gillibrand has won over most of her support in the northeast and hopes to push out Warren in the first few ballots to win some of her delegates especially in New Hampshire and Massachusetts.

Gillibrand also announced her vice-presidential selection. Gillibrand surprised the rally attendees at her victory party in Newark, New Jersy and pundits with history breaking news. Gillibrand annouced that she would let the convection choose the vice-president for her. The other two candidates without vice-presidential candidates, Beto O'Rourke and Kamala Harris said similar things when asked but both left the door open to announce a VP at the convection or just before the convection. Brown choose Governor Jay Inslee as Vice-President, Elizabeth Warren chose Representative Tulsi Gabbard as Vice-President and Amy Klobuchar choose Representative Chris Pappas. Already multiple draft movements for candidates for vice-president started including Pete Buttigieg, Joe Manchin, and Gina Raimondo.

The only other candidates to win states were Warren, Klobuchar, and O'Rourke who all won at least fifty delegates leaving the frontrunner, Brown, and former frontrunner, Harris, far behind as the final delegates were counted. Harris hoped to put the bad news behind her as she fell into third place with realizing her plan for the convection. Harris hopes to flip heavily African-American delegation like all the southern delegations, Illinois and Virginia. Harris knows those aren't enough states to win the nomination but hopes the candidates losing those states are forced to drop out and help expand her base of support.


Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY): (108)
1.
New Jersey, Washington D.C.

2.

3.

Former Representative Beto O'Rourke (D-TX): (82)
1.
New Mexico, Puerto Rico

2.

3.
Washington D.C., South Dakota

Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) (60)
1.
Montana

2.

3.
North Dakota, Puerto Rico, New Mexico

Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN): (50)
1.
North Dakota, South Dakota

2.
Montana

3.

Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA): (40)
1.

2.
New Mexico, Puerto Rico, Washington D.C.

3.

Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH): (29)
1.

2.
North Dakota, South Dakota

3.
New Jersey, Montana



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Messam Launches Bid For Vice-President
June 25th, 2020

Miami Herald- The Mayor of Miramar, Wayne Messam, considered a run at the presidency but stepped aside when Former Mayor Andrew Gillum ran instead. Messam was one of the earliest supporters of Gillum and started considering a bid when Gillum first denied looking into the job. Messam officially declared he wouldn't run at Gillum's launch rally where he endorsed Gillum. Now, Messam is looking into the second top job. In an email to supporters, delegates and press, Messam announced he would be seeking the second top slot. Soon after, Gillum tweeted out his support of Messam and asked his delegates and supporters to support Messam at the convection.

Messam announcement came after three main candidates, Kamala Harris, Beto O'Rourke and Kirsten Gillibrand, all basically said they would let the convection decide their vice-president. Harris stated may the best person win in a statement after being asked about Messam by a reporter. Harris also stated that she's "happy that there will be not only a diverse ray of candidates for president at the convention but also for vice-president too"

Messam may not be the only candidate running without a top of the ticket endorsement. Governor Gina Raimondo has also been mentioned to be looking at the vice-presidential slot and she would have a lot of support from establishment democrats ran since her successful chairmanship at the DGA. Even without Raimondo, Messam already has fierce competition from Amy Klobuchar's backed Representative Chris Pappas, Elizabeth Warren backed Representative Tulsi Gabbard and Sherrod Brown backed Governor Jay Inslee.



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Final Fundraising Before Convection Realsed
July 3rd, 2020

CNBC- Ahead of the crucial brokered convection, all the candidates are realising fundraising numbers. The fundraising numbers give us a key look into the strongest and weakest candidates in the race. In the Democratic race, the strongest candidate looks like Kamala Harris and Beto O'Rourke. Harris and O'Rourke both raised over eighty million dollars and have around fifty dollars in the bank. Still, that numbers are far lower compared to the other candidates they will be running against in the general election. President Donald Trump has three hundred dollars in the cash on hands and Howard Schultz has over one hundred million.

While Schultz looks strong, it seems his supporters are not willing to give money which signals a lack of strength in their support for Schultz. Schultz does have a big bank to help him and will try to match other candidates who have strong small donor bases. A candidate with a small donor base army is Elizabeth Warren and Donald Trump. Trump does have a massive fundraising haul but he should have had a much bigger haul, this just proves how much time and effort Trump had to put in the primary to put away Bill Weld who raised a little over ten million dollars and still won four primaries.

On the other hand, Warren raised much of her funds from small donors but she spent a lot in the process and still ended up in last and has little to spend at the convection. Warren will need money to pass some other candidates and fight Senator Kirsten Gillibrand for the northeast which Warren hopes to flip.


1. Donald Trump
Total Raised: 409.7 million
Self Investment: 10.6 million
Total Spent: 112.4 million
Cash on Hand: 307.9 million

2. Howard Schultz
Total Raised: 16.6 million
Self Investment: 156.2 million
Total Spent: 57.0 million
Cash On Hand: 116.4 million

3. Kamala Harris
Total Raised: 86.7 million
Self Investment: 4.0 million
Total Spent: 45.3 million
Cash on Hand: 45.4 million

4. Beto O'Rourke
Total Raised: 96.5 million
Self Investment: 0.0 million
Total Spent: 57.3 million
Cash on Hand: 39.2 million

5. Kirsten Gillibrand
Total Raised: 67.5 million
Self Investment: 0.5 million
Total Spent: 56.3 million
Cash on Hand: 11.7 million

6. Sherrod Brown
Total Raised: 50.4 million
Self Investment: 0.0 million
Total Spent: 46.6 million
Cash on Hand: 3.8 million

7. Justin Amash
Total Raised: 3.6 million
Self Investment: 0.0 million
Total Raised: 0.9 million
Cash on Hand: 2.5 million

8. Amy Klobuchar
Total Raised: 51.6 million
Self Investment: 0.0 million
Total Raised: 49.9 million
Cash on hand: 1.7 million

9. Ro Khanna
Total Raised: 0.9 million
Self Investment: 0.0 million
Total Raised: 1.1 million
Cash on Hand: -0.2 million

10. Elizabeth Warren
Total Raised: 72.9 million
Self Investment: 0.1 million
Total Spent: 73.5 million
Cash on Hand: -0.5 million


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DNC Realses List of Speakers
July 6th, 2020

DNC- With the Democratic party facing contested convection. The DNC will do everything in its power to make the convection go smoothly and allow the presidential nominee to be quickly found out. The DNC has met with all six remaining campaigns to discuss the speakers and surrogates forever campaign met together so all speakers would be fairly chosen and not unfairly titled towards one campaign. The below list is the finalized list of speakers who will be at the convection from July 13th to 17th.

July 13th: Diversty in America
-Chairmen Tom Perez of the DNC (D-MD)
-Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley (D-MA)
-Congresswoman Linda Sanchez (D-CA)
-Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)
-Kentucky Sectary of State Allison Grime (D-KY)
-Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI)
-Former Attorney General Eric Holder (D-NY)
-Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)
-Former HUD Sectary Julian Castro (D-TX)
-Former State Representative Stacey Abrams (D-GA)

July 14th: Streangth in the Union
-DNC Vice-Chair and Congressman Keith Ellison (D-MN)
-Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
-Former Governor Terry McAuliffe (D-VA)
-Congressman Chris Pappas (D-NH)
-Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
-Governor Tony Evers (D-WI)
-Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)
-Congressman Tim Ryan (D-OH)
-Governor Tim Walz (D-MN)
-Former First Lady Michelle Obama (D-IL)
-Former President Barack Obama (D-IL)

July 15th: Trust Science
-Former Congressman Beto O'Rourke (D-TX)
-Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
-Governor Michelle Lujan Graham (D-NM)
-Anthony Foxx (D-NJ)
-Governor Jay Inslee (D-WA)
-Former Mayor Andrew Gillum (D-FL)
-Former Governor Jerry Brown (D-CA)
-Former Governor Martin O'Malley (D-MD)
-Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA)
-Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR)
-Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee

July 16th: Protecting America
-Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT)
-Mark Kelly (D-AZ)
-Former Representative Gabby Gifford (D-AZ)
-Former Vice-President Joe Biden (D-DE)
-Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)
-Congressman Jim Clyburn (D-SC)
-State Representative Stephanie Flowers (D-AR)
-Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)
-Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg (D-NY)
-Senator Tammy Duckworth (D-IL)
-Democratic Presidential Nominee




Democrats Delegate Count
4,051/4,051
Sherrod Brown: 724
Kristen Gillibrand: 620
Kamala Harris: 659
Beto O'Rourke: 557
Amy Klobuchar: 516
Elizabeth Warren: 371
Joe Biden: 323
Cory Booker: 227
Tulsi Gabbard: 151
Julian Castro: 142
John Hickenlooper: 122
Eric Swalwell: 94
Jeff Merkley: 80
Bernie Sanders: 59
Terry McAullife: 50
Michael Bennet: 27
Bill De Blasio: 10
Stacey Abrams: 6
John Delaney: 3
Seth Moulton: 3
Andrew Gillum: 3
Tim Ryan: 2
Steve Bullock: 2
Michael Bloomberg: 2
Pete Buttigieg: 1
Jay Inslee: 1

MSNBC Poll of West Virginia Guberartional Election
Jim Justice (R): 44.5%
Richard Ojeda (D): 43.1%
Other: 5.6%
Undecided: 6.8%

Huffington Post Poll of Arizona Senate Election
Mark Kelly (D): 48.7%
Martha McSally (R): 46.2%
Adam Kokesh (L): 0.4%
Undecided: 4.7%
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #73 on: March 16, 2019, 01:43:41 pm »

I'm assuming Ellison won the 2018 contest for MN State AG like he did in real life ?
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« Reply #74 on: April 13, 2019, 06:41:10 pm »

I can't keep the timeline going but I will do election results.

Candidates:
Donald Trump/Mike Pence (R)
Beto O'Rourke/Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Howard Schultz/John Delaney (D)
Justin Amash/Tom Campbell (L)
Ro Khanna/Nina Turner (G)
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