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  One America Divided: 2020 Election
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terp40hitch
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« on: January 25, 2019, 05:01:36 pm »

One America Divided
2020 Election


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FiveThirtyEight: Meet the 2020 Candidates
November 13th, 2020

FiveThirtyEight-Just a week after the biggest blue wave the nation has ever seen, three Democratic Candidates have already announced their bids sensing President Trump's weak reelection chances. As we will do throughout the election, we will give every candidate a summary to tell about them and their chances at the white house.

Congressmen John Delaney (MD-06)- The first major Democrat in the race is Congressmen, soon to be former congressmen, John Delaney who opted for a race for the White House instead of another bid for the house or a race for Governor. He is actually been waging his presidential campaign since early 2017 and has already done all 99 counties in Iowa and has poured one million in advertising, from his own money, in the state.  He has started to develop a large Iowa-powerful team and organization around the state. It has helped Delaney with crowd sizes and being able to be taken seriously but not when looking at polls especially national.

Delaney has had many struggles in his long bid for the white house, most notably fundraising. Delaney is in over three million dollars in debt already but Delaney has promised he would self-fund till he has no more debt which revolves much of that issue. Though Delaney is a very serious candidate and has held higher office before, some newspapers and tv shows have not shown his campaign when discussing the 2020 election even if he is one of the three current Democrats in the race. Delaney is even being overshadowed already by a failed congressional candidate who has only been a state senator for three years but we will get to that later.

Delaney has run on a bipartisan, uniting America agenda which could be helpful in the 2020 election after four years of division under President Trump. Delaney has made that the focus of his campaign as he "focuses on the future".

Andrew Yang (NY)-Businessman to President? Have we heard that before? Andrew Yang is the second Democrat that announced his bid the presidency and he, like Trump, has held no government position and is a rich businessman. I don't know how likely Democrats are to pit Trump against someone with the same experience as Trump. Yang does have one benefit that Trump and no other Democrat running does, he is a minority. After the 2018 election where women and minorities did substanly better than average, there may just be an opening for Andrew Yang. Yang does face the challenge of standing out of the field that looks like it will be filled with minorities and women though.

Andrew Yang also faces the same challenges that Delaney faces. Yang has not fundraised well at all but like Delaney, he can self finance his campaign if needed. The second big problem is no name recognition or base of support since he has not held office before, not even as a mayor which means no one who isn't a business major knows who Andrew Yang is. Yang is also not being taken as a serious candidate which is far from true as he has already opened an office in Iowa, the first to do so, and has rallied supporters across the country.

State Senator Richard Ojeda (WV)- The former Trump voter turned congressional candidate was able to close a twenty-five point gap in the district he ran for between 2016 and 2018 even if he lost. by twelve points in the end. That may be impressive but does it make him ready for the white house? Richard Ojeda thinks so and has announced his bid yesterday.

Ojeda does have a base of support that he could rally to help win over support, unions and working families. This is what allowed Ojeda to win his state senate seat which went overwhemly for Trump. Ojeda became semi-famous when he rallied the teachers union outside the West Virginia capital demanding more pay and shorter class sizes and he has already made unions a key point in his bid since he announced in a union hall, surrounded by union families in heavily union state of Kentucky.

Ojeda may have a base which the other two lack for the most part but he also is going to struggle with finances and name recognition. Unlike Delaney and Yang, he cannot make financial issues just disappear which is something that weighs down every campaign. With no financial help, it will make it harder for him to find staff, offices and the ability to spread his name. Without any of those then a base without support will fall and Ojeda will join the also-rans of history.



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CNN: Iowa is Sherrod Brown Country?

CNN- Election Day, Senator Sherrod Brown was able to win a third term over Representative Jim Renacci by seven points, in a state that President Trump won by nine. This may seem impressive but Senator Brown was leading by ten to twenty points leading into the final weeks and won his last election by six points and now it was a blue wave year and he barely improved. That race did get nasty in the final weeks as Renacci brought up Brown's divorce where his ex-wife claimed abuse by Senator Brown which both Senator Brown and his ex-wife said should not have been brought up.

Now, Senator Brown is looking at the White House as his next political goal. He has announced his intentions to launch a dignity of work tour in the three early states of Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire. This is singling his first real steps to a presidential bid in 2020 which is a real possibility that he could win. Brown is from the midwest, has a populist background and is from a swing state. He looks like a natural frontrunner for the Democratic primary but this year is looking like the Democrats are moving away from white, older men like Sherrod Brown and towards people who did well in 2018, minorities and women. Already plenty of minorities and women have eyes towards the white house like Tulsi Gabbard and Kamala Harris.

Sherrod Brown's chance of the nomination will have to lie in Iowa if he runs which could be a strong place for him. Populist rhetoric took the state in 2016 and could flip it in 2020 if they nominate Senator Brown. Brown also has midwestern roots and visited state multiple times during the primary. Brown will be competing for that state with Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg and multiple other midwestern Democrats trying to win early and all those will also be competing with the big names in the primary like Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren.



CNN/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll from November 17th to 21st
Sample Size: 1,569

Democrats
Joe Biden: 16.6%
Beto O'Rourke: 13.3%
Bernie Sanders: 13.1%
Kamala Harris: 8.4%
Amy Klobuchar: 5.5%
Sherrod Brown: 4.1%
Elizabeth Warren: 1.4%
Cory Booker: 1.3%
Michael Bloomberg: 1.0%
John Delaney: 0.8%
Kristen Gillibrand: 0.4%
Julian Castro: 0.3%
Richard Ojeda: 0.3%
Tulsi Gabbard: 0.1%
John Kerry: 0.1%
Andrew Yang: 0.1%
Tim Ryan: 0%
Terry McAullife: 0%
Undecided: 33.2%
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2019, 06:06:19 pm »

Brown!!!!!
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« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2019, 06:24:06 pm »

Can’t ying the Yang!
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terp40hitch
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« Reply #3 on: January 26, 2019, 11:33:00 am »

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Hometown Favorite? Not Ojeda
November 28th, 2018

MSNBC- The latest poll coming out of the upcoming 2020 election is for the 2020 Democratic primary that has already three candidates in the race. The latest poll was done in the state of West Virginia, the home state of State Senator Richard Ojeda. Richard Ojeda in 2018 gain fame when he ran for the third west Virginia congressional district and attack President Trump, the man he voted for, in many viral videos. Ojeda ended up losing the race by twelve points to the incoming freshmen Republican Carol Miller, the only new Republican women. Still, Ojeda was able to improve upon Hillary Clinton's percentage by over twenty-five points.

Now, Ojeda is running for president just days after losing his bid for Congress. His path to victory he believes is through unions and working families. He made that a hallmark of his congressional campaign and his presidential, he even announced his bid in a union hall surrounded by union families. He will run into many obstacles on his way to the White House. First, Ojeda will be running with very few funds. Few big donors will sign onto a campaign with such little prospects which creates his second problem, name recognition. Without money, Ojeda will have trouble staffing, traveling, and opening offices which will severely hurt his chances at spreading his name around the nation. With the latest poll out of his home state though, there may be a third problem for Ojeda, when people hear his message they aren't buying it.

In the latest poll, Ojeda couldn't even make it in the top three. He fell behind the frontrunners of Biden and Bernie who both are in double digits. Then he also fell behind another midwestern, Sherrod Brown who is just a few votes ahead of Ojeda in the latest poll and lives in the bordering state of Ohio.


MSNBC Poll of West Virginia Democrats
Sample Size: 529
Joe Biden: 36.1%
Bernie Sanders: 14.3%
Sherrod Brown: 6.3%
Richard Ojeda: 6.2%
Terry McAullife: 3.2%
Tim Ryan: 2.3%
Beto O'Rourke: 2.1%
Amy Klobuchar: 1.3%
Elizabeth Warren: 1.1%
Bob Casey: 1.1%
Kamala Harris: 0.9%
John Delaney: 0.7%
Michael Bloomberg: 0.4%
Cory Booker: 0.4%
Tulsi Gabbard: 0.3%
Andrew Yang: 0.0%
Undecided: 22.9%

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T-Paw 2020: Amy Klobuchar?
December 2nd, 2018

Politico- Tim Pawlenty or T-Paw was the rising star in the Republican party, was on the shortlist of Vice-Presidential candidates in 2008 and was coming from Minnesota which could be a swing state in the right year. Pawlenty looked like the dream candidate but then he made the jump into the race and his campaign. The high expectations didn't come to the surface when he came into the ring and was soon knocked out of the race because he had no base and the base he thought he had was already been taken by other candidates.

Now, another Minnesotan is thinking of running for the same office eight years after T-Paw's downfall, Senator Amy Klobuchar. Once again, Klobuchar like Pawlenty is a rising star from the midwest but Klobuchar is also a woman which could help her in 2020. Still, much of her base of midwestern voters might find a new candidate if she doesn't enter soon enough or even her women supporters. Many supporters or prospective staff could jump ship to join another ship before Klobuchar is even set sail. Many of these voters or staff will go to other campaigns with similar platforms to Klobuchar like what happened to Pawlenty. Most likely they will go to Kamala Harris, Sherrod Brown, Pete Buttigieg or Joe Biden.

If Klobuchar doesn't set sail soon her ship could start to sink and she could end up looking like T-Paw 2020 which no candidate has ever wanted.



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Senator Michael Bennet is a Maybe
December 13th, 2018

MSNBC- In his latest interview with MSNBC, the moderate Senator from Colorado said he was thinking of running for president of the United States. Michael Bennet was first elected in 2010 after being appointed in 2009. Bennet had an easier than expected reelection and after his reelection in 2016, President Obama called him one of the future leaders of the Democratic party.

Bennet is looking to run for president in a very crowded field where there will be many much higher profile candidates than him like Bernie, Biden, and Beto who are all the current frontrunners national and in many of the early states. Bennet might also be running against another Coloradoan in the race if John Hickenlooper makes the jump into the national spotlight.

FiveThirtyEight reports that Bennet's base of support would have to be a party insider since he is moderate with little appeal to millennials or African-Americans. Bennet might also do better than expected with Hispanic voters who make up a significant percentage of voters in his home state. To win with anyone though, Bennet will have to spread his name recognition which is very much lacking nationwide but unlike Hickenlooper, Bennet has a big war chest already built up from his 2016 senate run which can transfer to his presidential bid.



Gallup Poll of Democrats Nationally from December 11th to 15th
Sample Size: 5,839
Joe Biden: 18.5%
Bernie Sanders: 18.3%
Beto O'Rourke: 14.3%
Kamala Harris: 9.1%
Elizabeth Warren: 6.4%
Kristen Gillibrand: 5.7%
Sherrod Brown: 4.8%
Amy Klobuchar: 2.9%
Michael Bloomberg: 2.3%
Cory Booker: 1.5%
John Hickenlooper: 1.3%
Michael Bennet: 1.2%
Julian Castro: 0.7%
John Delaney: 0.4%
Terry McAullife: 0.3%
Tim Ryan: 0.2%
Richard Ojeda: 0.2%
Andrew Yang: 0.0%
Undecided: 11.9%
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terp40hitch
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« Reply #4 on: January 27, 2019, 09:09:51 am »

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Bill Weld For President Rumors
December 30th, 2018

Boston Herald- Former Governor of Massachusetts and former vice-presidential nominee for the Libertarian party is taking a trip to some early voting states spurring rumors of a run for the presidency. Bill Weld is visiting the key state of New Hampshire which is an early voting primary state which some political pundits point to show that Weld may be thinking of running as a Republican which he was till he was chosen by Former Governor Gary Johnson to be his VP choice at the 2016 Libertarian convection. Still, many believe Weld is more likely to run in his current party, the Libertarian party since New Hampshire is not only an early primary state but also a highly independent state.

If Weld does decide he will run for president as a Libertarian, he could face some trouble since many in the party don't believe he is a true Libertarian but he is just a moderate Republican. There was also resistance to his Vice-Presidential bid at the convection too where it took two ballots to get him on the ticket with Johnson. Even more worrisome for Weld is that in the latest online poll from A Libertarian Future, Weld was only in second behind Austin Petersen who was the runner up in 2016. Petersen has shown he won't run again and there is little to doubt that that isn't true.


Libertarian Future Online Libertian 2020 National Poll from December 17th to 25th
Sample Size: 194
Austin Petersen: 27%
Bill Weld: 21%
Justin Amash: 17%
John McAfee: 11%
Larry Sharpe: 9%
Adam Kokesh: 5%
Mark Sanford: 2%
Sam Sedar: 2%
Arvin Vohra: 1%
Sam Sedar: 1%


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Elizabeth Warren is Exploring a Bid
December 31st, 2018

CNN- Today in a short four-minute video posted on Facebook, Senator Elizabeth Warren announced her exploratory committee for president of the United States of America. Warren is the second to announce an exploratory committee after Former HUD Sectary Julian Castro, who started his on December 12t. This means, if she makes the jump, Warren would be the fourth candidate in the race after Andrew Yang, Former Congressmen John Delaney and State Senator Richard Ojeda. Still, this is by no means an official launch though it almost means the candidate will launch after exploring a bid and creating some organization for the candidate once they officially launch their bid.

Warren is a progressive and many groups like moveon.org tried to draft in the 2016 presidential election with no luck but Warren believes 2020 is her chance. Still, many political pundits say that Warren missed her oppurintory in 2016 and will be fighting for both the progressive and women's vote which will not only take a large organization but also large amounts of money which may be hard since she won't be taking any political action committee money.

Republican strategist are ready for a Warren to run especially after she failed attempt at showing her DNA test which leads to one of the worst weeks, Warren has ever had in politics and severely hurt her chances at the nomination. Republicans also believe Warren will be able to be attacked like Hillary Clinton was in 2016 especially after looking at both women's unfavorability among voters.

Warren has yet set a date for an official announcement but the other candidate who has formed an exploratory committee, Julian Castro, is set to announce a bid for president on the 13th of January.



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Who will take on Trump in 2020?
January 5th, 2019

The Bulwark- With the Government shutdown and after one of the biggest election loses for Republicans, a buzz about a potential primary against Trump is floating around in the air. Here is a list of his biggest challenges.

Former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis (R-WA)- Mattis has been a strong critic of Trump's foreign policy especially when Trump decided to remove troops from Syria which prompted Mattis' exit and a few weeks ago. If he decided to run, Mattis could win over defense hawks like Senator Lindsey Graham and Representative Adam Kinzinger of Illinois. Still, a Mattis run could be born to fail. Mattis has been an independent his whole life till he joined the Trump administration and defense and military personnel usually don't have a good record of winning presidential elections.

Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD)- Last November while most Republicans barely held on or fell out of power, Larry Hogan cruised to a second term in the highly Liberal state of Maryland. Hogan has been very critical of President Trump in the past and even blamed him for the election loss, which many Republicans would never dare do, at the Republican Governor's Association. Hogan has even fed the rumors of his potential run by going to early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Hogan could be the best chance at taking out Trump in the primary other than John Kasich because Hogan doesn't need a bunch of money right away but he can self-fund till he has gotten the funds to run for president.

Representative Justin Amash (R-MI)- Amash is an outspoken critic of President Trump from a wide range of issues especially Trump's shutdown. Amash says the government should be shut down to cut funding not to add funding. Still, Amash would be more popular and likely to do well if he ran as a Libertarian since the Wall is very popular with the Republican parties base.

Former Governor John Kasich (R-OH)- Kasich has constantly attacked Trump and has built himself a following. Kasich has started to build a campaign but his advisors that have been helping him won't say if Kasich will run as an independent or Republican. Already articles being written if Kasich should save the Republican party or save the nation by running as an independent. Kasich is probably the most likely contenders to take on Trump and most likely to beat Trump if anyone does which is still very unlikely. If he does run, Kasich would have to win in an early state like New Hampshire which is perfect for him since his better than expected finish in 2016 primary and his continued visit ever since to the state that launched his presidential campaign four years ago.



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Final Quarter of 2018 Fundraising Realsed
January 9th, 2019

USAToday- The three active Democratic candidates, two exploring Democrats and President Donald Trump all realized their fundraising for the final quarter of 2018. President Donald Trump had the highest amount of money raised followed by Representative John Delaney. Delaney was finally able to raise over one million dollars in one quarter which is 200,000 dollars more than last quarter. Still, Delaney's total seemed very small compared to the total raised by President Trump's 2020 campaign. Trump raised fifteen million dollars in the last quarter and spent five million dollars.

Following behind Delaney was Castro, Warren, Ojeda then Yang who all raised less than one million but only Andrew Yang was in the race for the whole quarter. Still, it is very impressive how much Warren and Castro raised since they have only been in the race with exploratory committees and just for a few days with Warren only being in for a few hours before the quarter ended and Warren has started to surge with a post-annoucment bump putting her in second in New Hampshire, a must win state for her.

Fundraising from Quarter four of 2018:

Donald Trump 2020 Campaign
Raised: 15.7 million
Spent: 5.3 million
Cash on Hand: 57.4 million

John Delaney 2020 Campaign
Raised: 1.3 million
Spent: 0.5 million
Cash on Hand: 1.5 million

Elizabeth Warren 2020 Exploratory Committee
Raised: 0.7 million
Spent: 0.1 million
Cash on Hand: 0.6 million

Julian Castro 2020 Exploratory Committee
Raised: 0.4 million
Spent: 0.2 million
Cash on Hand: 0.2 million

Richard Ojeda 2020 Campaign
Raised: 0.2 million
Spent: 0.1 million
Cash on Hand: 0.1 million

Andrew Yang 2020 campaign
Raised: 0.1 million
Spent: 0.2 million
Cash on Hand: 0.6 million



Princton Democratic New Hampshire Poll from December 31st to January 9th
Sample Size: 793
Bernie Sanders: 18.7%
Elizabeth Warren: 16.2%
Joe Biden: 15.1%
Kristen Gillibrand: 8.1%
Beto O'Rourke: 7.3%
Joe Kennedy III: 6.4%
Seth Moulton: 3.6%
Michael Bloomberg: 3.2%
John Hickenlooper: 3.1%
Cory Booker: 2.0%
Michael Bennet: 1.3%
Kamala Harris: 1.1%
Amy Klobuchar: 0.8%
Sherrod Brown: 0.7%
Richard Ojeda: 0.5%
Julian Castro: 0.4%
John Delaney: 0.2%
Andrew Yang: 0.1%
Undecided: 11.2%
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terp40hitch
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« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2019, 12:25:51 pm »

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Will the stars of 2018 run?
january 10th, 2019

FiveThirtyEight- Coming out of 2018, the Democratic party had many stars rise from the dirt like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar. Three of those stars who ran close races but ended up being runners up are now looking at the White House as the next goal. Beto O'Rourke, Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum all gained national attention from their runs for senator [Beto O'Rourke] and governor [Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum]. Now all are being pressured to run for the highest office of the land and they are polling fairly well when polled.

Both Gillum and Abrams have denied their interest in a run but both have started to gather strategist and Gillum has started to tour the nation. Where Gillum has gone, he has gotten strong approval like at a fundraiser with high profile Democratic donors in Washington D.C. where he got multiple people to pledge money towards a Gillum campaign if he decides to run. On the other hand, Abrams has also started to campaign after she failed in her gubertarional bid and then she failed in her bid to recount votes. Still, Democrats like Chuck Schumer have met with her pressuring her not to run for president and run for Senate instead which would be a much more winnable race. Abrams could run for Senate if she fails early enough in her presidential bid which might tempt her into taking a chance and running for president.

Unlike Abrams and Gillum, Beto O'Rourke has not denied he is looking towards the White House but he is keeping his intentions in the dark. His top advisors still don't know whether he will run or not but Beto has taken a tour of the nation excluding some early states which are making officials in those states angered at Beto. Already, multiple Draft efforts have been set up in case of a bid and all they want right now is a sign that he will make the jump or not.

Right now, the stars of 2018 are keeping everyone in the dark as they start plotting their futures which may involve a run for the White House.



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Tulsi Gabbard is running, Attacked for Anti-LGBT past
January 12th, 2019

CNN- In a townhall interview on CNN, Tulsi Gabbard announced she would be running for president of the United States of America and would have an official announcement later this month in her home state of Hawaii. Tulsi Gabbard is a veteran who, if elected, be the first veteran who served post-9/11. Gabbard has been a representative from Hawaii since 2012 and served as the vice-chair in the DNC until she resigned to endorse Bernie Sanders in 2016. Gabbard has long been a moderate progressive who has often attacked establishment Democrats and went after the chair of the DNC while she was still vice-chair for only having six debates to help Hillary Clinton. Recently she has been applauded for calling out the sitting Senator from Hawaii, Mazie Hirono for her "bigoted" questioning of a judicial nominee.

Gabbard has a long road to the White House, especially in a crowded election year. Not since President Garfield was elected as a sitting congressperson been elected to the presidency. Gabbard will also start with low polling numbers, In Iowa, she was only polling at 0.1% in the last poll. Still, as a local reporter from Iowa Starting Line reports that Tulsi Gabbard has racked up a high number of visits and has built a large number of high profile staff.

Soon after Gabbard's announcement on CNN, many LGBT activist attacked for being anti-LGBT during her time in the Hawaii state legislature. Gabbard also was attacked for praising an organization that conducted gay travasion therapy. Fellow congressmember Sean Maloney from New York came to Gabbard's defense saying that they have been friends for a long time and as many others have grown in their values over time. Gabbard also stated many of those same notes when she personally apologized in a video posted to Twitter and Facebook.



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« Reply #6 on: January 27, 2019, 04:49:35 pm »

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"I am in it to win it" Julian Castro is in the ring
January 13th, 2019

The Hill- At a rally in his home state of Texas, former HUD Sectary and former Mayor of San Antonio Julian Castro announced a bid for president after a month of exploring. Castro is the first Hispanic to enter the race so far and stressed the importance of a progressive platform moving forward and beating Donald Trump in November.

Castro has earned the endorsement of his brother, Congressmen Joaquin Castro, and multiple other state Representatives from Texas but even winning Texas won't be easy for Castro. Castro might not be the only Texas candidate in the race with Beto O'Rourke still considering a bid for the office which might split the Hispanic vote into some of the Hispanic heavy states like Nevada since Beto is highly popular with Hispanic voters. Castro could also be fighting with other Hispanic potential candidates like Eric Garcetti from California. The best shot for Castro at winning an early state would have to be in Nevada where there is a Hispanic heavy population and is close to his home state.



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Kristen Gillibrand and Jay Inslee are Officially Exploring
January 15th, 2018

NBC- Today, both Senator Kristen Gillibrand and Governor Jay Inslee both put together an exploratory committee for president of the United States of America. This comes after a chaotic week for presidential campaigns with both Representative Tulsi Gabbard and Former Mayor Julian Castro announcing their bids while both Senator Sherrod Brown with his dignity of work tour and Senator Elizabeth Warren took their first big swings through the state of Iowa. Not only that but Beto O'Rourke and Lincoln Chaffee publicly floated ideas of a possible bid for the presidency while doing interviews.

Inslee has put climate change at front and center of his campaign especially attacking President Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Peace Climate agreement in his first year as President. Inslee is the current Governor of Washington and was the chairmen of the DGA during the highly successful midterm elections which might help him get some early endorsements from thankful Governors. Gillibrand is the current junior senator from New York and is running on a very feminist platform. She stated she is running for all the young moms like her in the world who are trying to have it all while she announced on Stephen Colbert's late show.

Gillibrand, like Gabbard, was almost instantly attacked for her past conservative views during her time in the house. Gillibrand had an A from the NRA and was ranked as one of the most conservative Democrats which fit with her district but she did many major flip-flops when she was representing the liberal state of New York in the Senate. Gillibrand has also been attacked for being the first Democratic senator to call for the resignation of Al Franken after his sexual assault was uncovered. Gillibrand says this was a moral stand and Franken says is not mad she did it but it has lost her some profile donors in New York which she will need if she wants to stand out in the crowd.


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The First Big Name in the Field: Kamala Harris
January 21st, 2019

Fox News- In a video, like Hillary Clinton four years ago and Elizabeth Warren, Senator of California Kamala Harris launched her bid for president on Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Harris also announced fourty-seven years after the first African-American women launched her bid, Representative Shirley Chisholm, and Harris even made her logo look very similar to Chisholm. Harris is already and will make African-Americans a key point in her campaign and if she wins will make history as the first African-American women. Harris is the third African-American women to run for president after Chisholm in 1972 and Former Senator Carol Mosely Braun in 2004.

Harris is the first big name candidate and is usually polling in the top five with her highest percentage coming out of Nevada where she has a short of, home field advantage and is in first place at this point. In the two crucial early states of New Hampshire and Iowa, she is relatively low compared to past elections but in the upper tier with around nine percent of the vote in each state but with her announcement it should raise a little considering a post-announcement bump which most candidates get. Harris may have a smaller bump since she is joining the race at the same time as many including other top tier candidates who are announcing exploratory committees like Kristen Gillibrand and Elizabeth Warren.

Harris is also being treated as a top tier candidate with CNN already inviting her to do a town hall in Iowa at a local university but it will be invited only which has created some tension with some early voters in the state who wished to see her on her first visit to the state.



Havard Universty Polling of National Democrats from January 21st to 22nd
Sample Size: 337
Joe Biden: 14.3%
Beto O'Rourke: 12.6%
Kamala Harris: 12.3%
Bernie Sanders: 12.1%
Elizabeth Warren: 8.7%
Kristen Gillibrand: 5.4%
Sherrod Brown: 4.1%
Andrew Gillum: 3.3%
Jay Inslee: 2.8%
Jeff Merkely: 2.3%
John Hickenlooper: 2.2%
Julian Castro: 1.9%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1.7%
Michael Bennet: 1.4%
Eric Swalwell: 0.9%
Steve Bulton: 0.7%
Terry McAulifle: 0.4%
Richard Ojeda: 0.3%
Eric Garcetti: 0.2%
Andrew Yang: 0.2%
John Delaney: 0.1%
Eric Holder: 0.0%
Undecided: 12.1%

Emerson College Nevada Democratic Polling from January 17th to 21st
Sample Size: 197
Kamala Harris: 16.9%
Beto O'Rourke: 10.5%
Joe Biden: 10.2%
Julian Castro: 7.8%
Bernie Sanders: 5.4%
Elizabeth Warren: 5.1%
John Hickenlooper: 3.7%
Kristen Gillibrand: 3.5%
Cory Booker: 2.8%
Michael Bennet: 2.3%
Eric Swalwell: 2.1%
Jay Inslee: 1.7%
Amy Klobuchar: 1.4%
Sherrod Brown: 1.3%
Marianna Williamson: 1.1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 0.8%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.6%
John Delaney: 0.5%
Andrew Yang: 0.3%
Richard Ojeda: 0.1%
Undecided: 21.9%
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« Reply #7 on: January 27, 2019, 10:04:36 pm »

Marianne Williamson Annouces Long Shot Bid for Presidency
January 28th, 2019

Fox News- Spirituality Guro and one of Oprah's closest friend is launching a longshot bid for the White House. Marianne Williamson announced in a rally in California that she would run after two months of having an exploratory committee. Williamson has a very radical platform including paying African-Americans reparations. Williamson is a long shot candidate who has been included in only one recent poll in Nevada where she polled at 0.6%. Still, Williamson has been described as a very good speaker and has the money and backing from Oprah to help win her some support.


American Research Group Polling of Iowa Democrats from January 28th to 31st
Sample Size: 736
Joe Biden: 15.3%
Beto O'Rourke: 12.6%
Bernie Sanders: 11.5%
Amy Klobuchar: 7.4%
Sherrod Brown: 6.2%
Kamala Harris: 6.1%
Elizabeth Warren: 5.2%
Cory Booker: 2.7%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.5%
Michael Bennet: 1.8%
Steve Bullock: 1.1%
John Delaney: 1.0%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.7%
Eric Swalwell: 0.6%
Seth Moulton: 0.5%
Richard Ojeda: 0.5%
Julian Castro: 0.2%
Andrew Yang: 0.1%
Marianne Williamson: 0.0%
Undecided: 24.0%
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« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2019, 12:09:05 am »

When will Biden make his announcement in your TL?
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« Reply #9 on: January 28, 2019, 06:38:41 am »

When will Biden make his announcement in your TL?
I will probably have most of the bigger names wait til March or April or even May for Biden and Beto
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« Reply #10 on: January 28, 2019, 05:41:06 pm »

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Tulsi Gabbard annouces Endorsments and Attacks Harris
January 31st, 2019

Des Moines Register- With her first official trip to Iowa after announcing her bid and before her official announcement in Hawaii, Tulsi Gabbard spent it attacking Harris and earning endorsements. Gabbard's campaign announced in an email that former Representative Collen Hanabusa had endorsed her and would introduce her at her announcement rally in Honolulu, Hawaii.

Gabbard also was endorsed by former Gubertarional Candidate Chris King from Florida. Gabbard touted King's endorsement while touring Iowa with her pro-religious message. King was an evangelical Democrat and touted that during his bid for governor in Florida. King's endorsement could also help push Gillum away from a run since King was also Gillum's choice for Litenuet Govenors candidate.

While Gabbard was in Iowa she toured Des Moines and West Des Moines and held a meet in greet in a local home. In the most recent poll, Gabbard was polling at a little above 2% but her pro-religious liberty message could win over the highly religious state of Iowa. Gabbard is polling above four other announced candidates, John Delaney, Richard Ojeda, Andrew Yang, and Marianna Williamson.

With her pro-religious message, Gabbard attacked Harris for her religious bigotry in a judicial hearing which she did earlier in the year against one of the sitting senators from Hawaii. Gabbard stated that bigoted has no place in the White House no matter if the resident is Republican or Democrat. This follows attacks from Delaney on Harris and now Gabbard is joining in the attacks against the current frontrunner that is running. She also realised a video on Youtube and planning to air parts of it in Iowa and New Hampshire: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0NVcUkO19A



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John Hickenlooper is going to run, Hillary Clinton is leaving door open
Febuary 12th, 2019

New York Times- With the debates starting in June, Democrats are being rushed into the race especially candidates with lower name recognition so they can spread their ideas without being overshadowed by higher-profile candidates like Kamala Harris and Beto O'Rourke. Another candidate is now joining the race, Former Governor of Colorado John Hickenlooper. Hickenlooper was rumored interested in a joint bid with John Kasich as independents but in his last visit to Iowa, he shut down that rumor saying Kasich doesn't support planned parenthood.

Hickenlooper is running on a moderate agenda which is how he led in Colorado but he did make some conservative Democrats angry when he tried to pass gun reform laws. Hickenlooper is not the only one running on a pagamentic Democratic platform. The first candidate in the race, Congressmen John Delaney, is also running on nearly the same platform and is polling around one percent in Iowa. Hickenlooper was not even included in the last poll in Iowa but nationally, he was sitting around one percent.

Hickenlooper isn't the only candidate making news, a former candidate Hillary Clinton is also making news with her floating a potential bid. Clinton polled at five percent in the last poll she was included in but many thought she wouldn't even dare running again after losing to Donald Trump in 2016. Clinton has done multiple tours around the nation and has started telling advisors that the door is not closed yet. Whether or not Clinton runs won't change the race much since the race will be so crowded.



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Mayor De Blasio annouced Exploratory Commitee
Febuary 13th, 2019

270ToWin- This year it seems for every state, it has two candidates like a political noah's ark. Recently, we have John Hickenlooper jump in the race while Michael Bennet considered a bid, both are from Colorado. In Maryland, Larry Hogan and Martin O'Malley are consdiring bids while John Delaney is running. Califronia already has two candidates, Marianna Williamson and Kamala Harris. Ohio has John Kasich, Tim Ryan and Sherrod Brown all thinking of a run. Massachuetts has both Seth Moulton and Elizabeth Warren consdering a run. Now New York is about to have it's "Noah's Ark" moment with both Kristen Gillibrand and now, mayor Bill De Blasio both exploaring a bid.

Today, De Blasio annouced his exploratory commitee and joing an already crowded field. De Blasio will start towards an already crowded bottom as more high profile candidates try to gain the upper hand and the lower candidates are just trying to get even a breath of air in. De Blasio has yet to be inculded in a poll of the candidates in the race but one thing does look up for De Blasio, fundraising. De Blasio is one of the few candidates yet to write off political action commitee money and for good reason for his campaign, he has strong donor base from his previous runs and may win over New York Fincial Market.


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Gillum may not run, Considering Endorsment of De Blasio or Sanders
Febuary 16th, 2019

Miami Herald- Starting the year, former Mayor Andrew Gillum looked almost certain to run. Gillum has kept all his advisors on pay role from his Gubertarional campaign and started to campaign nationally but just a month into the new year, Gillum is know uncertain about a white house after failing in his bid for governor against Ron DeSantis.

In his most recent interview with MSNBC, Gillum stated that he was unsure about a run and probaly wouldn't make the jump.  After that Gillum said that if he didn't make a run for the presidency then his endorsment is either going to Senator Bernie Sander who propelled Gillum to a primary or Mayor Bill De Blasio who recently launched an expolartory commitee and helped campaign for Gillum while he was dealing with storm damage during the campaign. If Gillum does endorse either of those candidates, it would be a huge asset with a huge voter data base from his governor's run. Gillum would also attarct African-Americans to either of those campaigns which is benfitelly to two campaigns that will probaly struggle winning over African-Americans.



Gallup Poll of South Carolina Democrats from Febuary Febuary 13th to 16th
Sample Size: 841
Joe Biden: 17.3%
Kamala Harris: 14.1%
Cory Booker: 13.7%
Eric Holder: 9.8%
Terry McAullife: 7.3%
Andrew Gillum: 5.4%
Beto O'Rourke: 5.1%
Bernie Sanders: 3.3%
Kristen Gillibrand: 2.9%
Seth Moulton: 2.5%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.1%
Elizabeth Warren: 0.9%
Michael Bennet: 0.9%
John Hickenlooper: 0.7%
Richard Ojeda: 0.6%
Bill De Blasio: 0.4%
John Delaney: 0.3%
Julian Castro: 0.1%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.1%
Marianna Williamson: 0.1%
Andrew Yang: 0.0%
Undecided: 12.4%
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« Reply #11 on: January 28, 2019, 06:04:37 pm »

This is such a good TL! Loving how detailed it is!
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« Reply #12 on: January 28, 2019, 08:25:36 pm »

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Two Midwest Favorite Sons Annouce Bids: Klobuchar and Brown
Febuary 17th, 2019

Sioux City Journal- Yesterday, Senator Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota announced her bid for president of the United States. Klobuchar is polling relatively high in the neighboring state of Iowa, the first voting state. Still, Klobuchar has gotten bad publicity recently and was called T-Paw 2020, referring to the failed campaign of former Governor Tim Pawlenty. Many Democratic strategists believe Klobuchar is the best way for Democrats to win back the blue wall that fell in 2016 and to win the White House with a woman on top of the ticket. Klobuchar may have a tough time if she doesn't stick out but she is very good at retail politics like another candidate, John Hickenlooper, and is very popular in her home state of Colorado.

In her announcement rally, Klobuchar went after President Trump saying he has yet to give legitimate facts regarding our border and is using it as a political stunt to win the nomination. With the government again, Klobuchar also went after the prolonged shutdowns in the Trump white house calling it a dysfunctional government with a dysfunctional leader.

Klobuchar wasn't the only midwestern joining the race with Senator Sherrod Brown from Ohio jumping in the race today in a rally in his home state, Ohio. Brown is constantly polling around the same level with Klobuchar and both need good showings to prove they are strong candidates. Brown launched a dignity of work tour early this year to explore a bid. A common theme for Brown is working class, Midwestern. Brown could win over some supporters from other competitors who are playing very similar themes like Richard Ojeda but Ojeda welcomed Brown to the race and said, "The voters know who the real working class candidate is and when caucus day comes around, you will see Ojeda winning".

Ojeda has started to shift his strategy away from a needed win or needing to do well in Iowa to a fifty state strategy which could hurt him but help him in national polls. While Klobuchar and Brown need to focus on Iowa, Ojeda may want to focus on Iowa and South Carolina as a backup since South Carolina has a large veteran population



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DNC Annouces Primary Scheadule and Debate Scheadule
Febuary 18th, 2019

The Hill-Democrat National Committee Chairmen Tom Perez officially announced the primary schedule and debates schedule which would start in June. The early debates are partially to blame for so many candidates announcing much earlier than in 2016 and 2008. There will be 12 debates in the primary season which is just six more than in 2016 but much less than in the 2012 Republican primary and 2004 Democratic primary. For the primary election, more than seventy percent of the delegates will be allocated by the time March is over.


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Harris, Delaney and Ojeda annouced first endorsment
Febuary 21st, 2019

Iowa Starting Line-Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard was the first to announce her first round of endorsements and now three more candidates are touting their first endorsements.

Congressmen John Delaney emailed a list of three endorsements from former congress members who all will be campaigning with him in either Iowa or New Hampshire. Delaney would be campaigning in Iowa with former congressmen Brad Ashford from Nebraska and current congressmen David Trone from Delaney's former district while a former Republican and former congressmen Richard L. Hanna in New Hampshire. Delaney has spent most of his campaign in Iowa and started advertising well before even the Midterms but has taken some time in New Hampshire.

State Senator Richard Ojeda has fewer endorsements then Delaney and less politically powerful than Delaney but shows that Ojeda can win over some political officials. Ojeda was endorsed by two former congressional candidates like himself. Randy Bryce and Krystal Ball, both like Ojeda gained fame during their runs for office but neither gained the office they were running for. Bryce could help Ojeda continue to win over union voters which will be a key base for Ojeda.

Senator Kamala Harris had much more endorsements then both Ojeda and Delaney but that comes as no surprise as Harris is doing almost ten times better than Delaney in Iowa at this point. Harris earned the endorsement of Congressmen Ted Lieu, Tony West who was the former Attorney General and Harris brother in Law and was endorsed by Mayor of Oakland Libby Schaaf. Though many powerful Californians are endorsing Harris, some are holding out to see if either Congressmen Eric Swalwell or Governor Gavin Newsom would run.



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De Blasio officially Launches Campaign, Gillum Suprises Pundits and Annouces Bid while Tulsi Gabbard gains momuntum
Febuary 29th, 2019

Tampa Bay Times- After just two weeks in the exploratory phase of the campaign and one trip to New Hampshire, the mayor of New York is running for President. Bill De Blasio has only been included been in one major poll of South Carolina where he obtained just 0.4% but De Blasio main target will be in New Hampshire. A very independent and very progressive state could be strong for De Blasio especially if he runs a good campaign.

A potential endorser of De Blasio has decided to run for president himself surprising pundits. Mayor Andrew Gillum looked like he was out of the race but now he is throwing his hat in the ring after floating the idea of a potential endorsement of either Bernie Sander or De Blasio. Gillum became a rising star after the 2018 elections but he ended up losing a close race and then hurting himself by requesting a recount based on little evidence. Still, Gillum has had relatively high polling in states like South Carolina where he was up to six percent in the last poll.

Gillum, nor anyone in the field is rising as fast as Tulsi Gabbard, the congresswomen from Hawaii who declared her bid last month. Gabbard has been able to set herself apart by campaigning on religious freedom and her service to this country. In the deep south, Gabbard is doing decently even though her views don't match very well with the more moderate establishment and African-American communities in South Carolina.



CNN Poll of Iowa Democrats from February 27th to 30th, 2019
Sample Size: 1,435
Joe Biden: 15.2%
Sherrod Brown: 10.3%
Beto O'Rourke: 10.2%
Amy Klobuchar: 9.7%
Bernie Sanders: 8.4%
Elizabeth Warren: 5.8%
Kamala Harris: 5.1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 5.0%
Cory Booker: 3.5%
Michael Bloomberg: 3.3%
Andrew Gillum: 2.6%
John Delaney: 2.4%
Michael Bennet: 1.3%
Steve Bullock: 1.1%
Tim Ryan: 1.1%
John Hickenlooper: 1.0%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.9%
Seth Moulton: 0.6%
Julian Castro: 0.4%
Richard Ojeda: 0.4%
Jay Inslee: 0.2%
Bill De Blasio: 0.1%
Andrew Yang: 0.0%
Marianna Williamson: 0.0%
Undecided: 11.4%

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« Reply #13 on: January 28, 2019, 09:56:08 pm »

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Pete Buttigieg for President 2020
Febuary 31st, 2019

MSNBC- After a month of having an exploratory committee, the first gay major candidate is officially announcing his bid for president. Pete Buttigieg has been unable to travel to early states and a campaign was uncertain because of his father's death. Pete Buttigieg has now made it clear that he is running for president. Pete announced his intention on Morning Joe and will have a rally in Des Moines, Iowa on March 5th, 2019.

Pete got national attention when he ran for DNC chair but that could hurt his relationship with the DNC and his former rival, Chairmen Tom Perez. Pete will have to put a lot of effort into Iowa which is why announcing in Iowa is important to the campaign. Usually, midwest do very well in Iowa, look at Santorum 2012, but Pete will be competing with many other more competitive Democrats like Sherrod Brown and Amy Klobuchar. He will also be facing some dark horse candidates like Richard Ojeda.

Pete's entrance into the race makes the field at thirteen and more candidates are stilling looking at White House which could break the record created by the Republican Party in 2016 with seventeen serious candidates.



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Governor Hogan Won't Challenge Trump, Doesn't Rule Out Indepent Run With Kasich
March 3rd, 2019

Baltimore Sun- After rumors of a presidential run, Governor Larry Hogan is firmly saying he will not challenge President Trump in the Republican primary. Hogan has been a constant critic of president Trump from immigration to debt. At the annual gather of Republican Governors, where Hogan is vice-chair, Hogan blamed Trump for the losses in the midterms.

Rumors of a potential bid started after the attacks but the rumors really started to build after he started to travel to the early caucus state of Iowa. Yesterday, Hogan put to rest those rumors and said, "I have no plans on a primary of President Trump, my focus is on the state of Maryland and keeping up the progress we have made." After that, Hogan was asked if he would run independent or run on a ticket with Former Governor John Kasich who is also floating a bid. Hogan responded by saying, "Maryland and America is my first priority and everything except primary President Trump is on the table. If I think running for president helps America the most then I will run but I haven't truly looked at that yet."

Hogan removing himself from the list of potential candidates challenging President Trump may relieve some pressure but he still has harsh critics that may have a big enough ego to run like Former Governor Chris Christie.



Fox News Poll of General Election inculding Independents from March 1st to 5th,2019
Sample Size: 946
Generatic Democrat: 45.6%
Donald Trump (R-NY)/Mike Pence (R-IN): 41.3%
Generatic Independent: 13.1%
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« Reply #14 on: January 29, 2019, 06:09:07 pm »

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Congressmen Delaney wins Support of Iowa Democrat County Chairs
March 6th, 2019

Iowa Starting Line- After two years in the campaign, Congressmen John Delaney is starting to pick up steam in the race as other big names start to join the name. Already, Delaney has visited all ninety-nine counties in Iowa. Most recent winners of the Iowa caucus have visited all counties in the all-important state, see Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, and Barack Obama. Now that vist to those counties are paying off. Today, Delaney is touting three powerful new endorsements.

Three Democratic county chairs from heavily Republican counties are endorsing the congressmen. Donna Crum, Nancy Camardo and Twayla Peacock, who are the chairs for Mills, Wayne and Van Burne county Democrats and pointed to the lack of Democrats attention on switching former Trump voters back to the party. They also called out neglecting Democratic voters because they were in 'red counties' in the joint statement they realised. The statement went on to urge candidates to support a unifying candidate which is why they were endorsing John Delaney.

This is a big endorsement for Delaney who has so far been very neglected by media and overshadowed by the bids of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and other higher-profile candidates. This shows John Delaney's long campaign is working to bring voters to their campaign. Delaney's campaign also has been much more successful than others thought. Though Delaney is polling below one percent nationally, he has been able to pick his polling Iowa up to just under Tulsi Gabbard who has a lot of momentum after going after Kamala Harris. This shows on the campaign trail where a lot of his events have become standing room only even for his wife, April Delaney, which is unheard of so early in the campaign.



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O'Malley Rules Out Anouther Bid and Endorses Potential Candidate Beto O'Rourke; Follows O'Rourke winning Moveon.org straw poll
March 7th, 2019

NBC- In an opinion piece to the Des Moines Register, former 2016 presidential candidate and former Governor Martin O'Malley announced he would not run again for president. O'Malley in recent weeks looks as if he wouldn't make the jump for another bid after dropping out in 2016 after only winning one percent in the Iowa caucus. O'Malley could have been a strong candidate in 2020 though since he unlike many candidates already had an operation in place and high name recognition in Iowa. On his way out of the race, O'Malley endorsed the potential candidacy of Beto O'Rourke, the former congressmen from Texas.

O'Rourke has started falling in the polls after being in the top three since the midterms where O'Rourke lost a close race to Ted Cruz in Texas. O'Malley's endorsement could help turn around O'Rourke's falling polls and winning the moveon.org poll could too. Though O'Rourke didn't reach the fifty percent to gain the endorsement, O'Rourke did win the straw poll of progressive voters. This is a poll Bernie Sanders won four years earlier.

The full straw poll results are shown below


Moveon.org Straw Poll
Sample Size: 7,816
Beto O'Rourke: 1,325
Joe Biden: 1,069
Bernie Sanders: 842
Kamala Harris: 801
Elizabeth Warren: 647
Amy Klobuchar: 489
Michael Bloomberg: 361
Sherrod Brown: 325
Tulsi Gababard: 307
Stacey Abrams: 276
Joe Kennedy III: 256
Cory Booker: 222
Bill De Blasio: 218
Kristen Gillibrand: 135
Andrew Gillum: 124
Marianna Williamson: 101
Jay Inlsee: 97
Julian Castro: 95
Pete Buttigieg: 90
Eric Swalwell: 83
John Hickenlooper: 82
Mitch Landreiu: 57
Andrew Yang: 32
John Delaney: 31
Andrew Yang: 15
Tim Ryan: 11
Terry McAuliffe: 4
Steve Bullock: 1


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Senator Gillibrand finnally annouces Bid endorsed by Cuomo; Swalwell Plans Annoucment Next Week
March 9th, 2019

New York Times- Anouther heavyweight is now in the 2020 field after a long time of exploring a bid. Senator Kristen Gillibrand, the junior senator, is now running for president. Gillibrand is joining the field in the middle of the pack. Latest polls of the field in Iowa show Gillibrand with around three or four percent which is just above some dark horse candidates like Tulsi Gabbard and John Delaney. Gillibrand is polling much higher in New Hampshire where she is near ten percent and has a much bigger operation.

Following her official announcement, Gillibrand received the endorsement of Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York. Cuomo, in his endorsement, went after the other new yorker in the race, Bill De Blasio. Cuomo and De Blasio have had a long rivalry and the endorsement of Gillibrand shows this clearly. In his attacks, Cuomo said, "it is time for women as our president not someone with a huge ego like De Blasio and Trump."

Gillibrand wasn't the only one joining the presidential race, Swalwell is planning on officially announcing his presidential campaign next week in Washington D.C. as he rails against the current administration. Swalwell could have a winnable campaign since the early California primary but he will have heavy competition with fifteen candidates currently in the race.



Universty of New Hampshire Poll of New Hampshire Democrats from March 8th to 10th
Sample Size: 492
Bernie Sanders: 17.5%
Joe Biden: 12.8%
Kristen Gillibrand: 11.6%
Elizabeth Warren: 11.1%
Joe Kennedy III: 7.4%
Beto O'Rourke: 6.3%
John Hickenlooper: 5.2%
Kamala Harris: 4.6%
Michael Bloomberg: 3.5%
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.3%
Cory Booker: 3.1%
Bill De Blasio: 2.4%
Seth Moulton: 2.2%
Amy Klobuchar: 2.1%
Tim Ryan: 1.7%
Sherrod Brown: 1.2%
Andrew Gillum: 0.8%
Julian Castro: 0.6%
Terry McAullife: 0.4%
Andrew Yang: 0.3%
John Delaney: 0.3%
Marianna Williamson: 0.2%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.1%
Richard Ojeda: 0.1%
Eric Swalwell: 0.0%
Undecided: 1.2%
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« Reply #15 on: January 29, 2019, 10:57:47 pm »

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Swalwell earns endorsments but Many Califronians Support Harris
March 11th, 2019

Politico- Congressmen Eric Swalwell is officially announcing his bid this week and has earned the endorsement of two freshmen congressmembers, Katie Hill and Harley Rouda. Still, California is turning their back on the new candidate and are either waiting for an announcement from Eric Garcetti or endorsing Kamala Harris.

Twelve state assembly members from California are now endorsing Harris and two of the most powerful politicians in California are also endorsing her bid. The state treasurer, Fiona May, and the Linteunt Governor, Eleni Kowalski are both endorsing Harris bid over Swalwell or a potential run by Eric Garcetti that is looking less likely to happen as time goes on. The latest poll coming out of California does show that Harris is winning by a wide margin in the state which could help her if she suffers early loses. Swalwell is in a distant third place with Garcetti closely behind him in fourth.


CNN Poll of Califronia Democrats from March 10th to 11th
Sample Size: 297
Kamala Harris: 27.1%
Joe Biden: 15.4%
Eric Swalwell: 14.9%
Eric Garcetti: 10.3%
Beto O'Rourke: 9.8%
Bernie Sanders: 4.5%
Elizabeth Warren: 4.4%
Cory Booker: 2.3%
Kristen Gillibrand: 2.1%
Marianna Williamson: 1.1%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1.1%
John Hickenlooper: 0.9%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.9%
Michael Bennet: 0.8%
Sherrod Brown: 0.6%
Julian Castro: 0.5%
Amy Klobuchar: 0.5%
Andrew Gillum: 0.3%
Bill De Blasio: 0.3%
Terry McAullife: 0.2%
Andrew Yang: 0.1%
John Delaney: 0.1%
Richard Ojeda: 0%
Undecided: 1.9%


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Tulsi Gabbard's campaign crumbling; Harris hit on D.A. record
March 15th, 2018

FiveThirtyEight- Congresswomen Tulsi Gabbard gained early momentum and has risen in the polls but her campaign is now falling down around her. Politico reported early this month that Gabbard wasn't supposed to announce his bid on CNN and her team wasn't ready for the announcement which resulted in the consvertery being unopposed by the campaign except by an apology video. Not only is Gabbard running for president but she also has to make sure her seat in Hawaii is safe after receiving a challenger in her house race. Gabbard had troubles early on to, both her campaign manager and her consulting firm where let go or fired even before the official launch.

Gabbard still has a chance to win even with this early rise and stumble for her campaign. The reason she had momentum in the first place was because of her speaking skills and standing out in the field. Gabbard still has twelve debates and a good operation in early states.

Gabbard isn't the only candidate with problems, Senator Kamala Harris has faced attacks for her time as D.A. in Los Angles. A viral video has been released of Harris bragging about her threating parents of jail time for children abstances. Many people pointed out how people in poverty are much more likely to have higher abstances and the only thing this does was send more people to jail. Harris already has faced troubles with her attorney general record and now this has been another thrown in her side.



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Seth Moulton, Tim Ryan and Michael Bloomberg Launch Campaigns
March 21st, 2019

The Hill- In the first time in history, three major party candidates all announced their presidential campaigns on the same day. Congressmen Tim Ryan and Seth Moulton and Mayor of New York Michael Bloomberg all annouced at three different rallies today. Bloomberg annouced in New York City and would be the second New York City mayor to join the race after Bill De Blasio. Moulton annouced in Manchester, New Hampshire which will be a key state in his presidential run. Moulton point his time in the military as a key point to his annoucment and he will make that a key part of his campaign which could work to win over voters in South Carolina which is a veteran heavy state. Ryan launched his campaign in Akron, OH and talked about Trump's failure in the blue-collar communities and blamed the closing of factories in Akron, Ohio on Trump.

Pundits and political stragist pointed at Ryan's speech as the best of the three speeches but most all say that Bloomberg is the only one with a real shot at the nomination. Still, Bloomberg will have challenges as the Democratic party keeps moving to the left as Bloomberg is a centrist and a white, old man while the party is looking for diversty.

Moulton has the advantage of youth, a youthful family and his military background while Ryan's advantage is from being a blue-collar candidate. The other candidate blue-collar candidate, Richard Ojeda, went after Ryan soon after his speech. Ojeda stated, "coming from a blue-collar district doesn't make you part of the blue-collar class. Ryan has spent his life in politics while I was defending our country and while the people in the blue-collar neighbors suffered.

Officially, the field is at a historic high of eighteen candidates, beating the previous record of seventeen from the 2016 Republican field which quickly diwndled once the primary started.



Rassmumen Poll of National Democrats from March 13th to 21st
Sample Size: 2,594
Joe Biden: 12.6%
Bernie Sanders: 12.3%
Beto O'Rourke: 9.9%
Kamala Harris: 7.2%
Kristen Gillibrand: 6.1%
Elizabeth Warren: 5.6%
Sherrod Brown: 5.3%
Amy Klobuchar: 5.3%
Jay Inslee: 3.1%
Andrew Gillum: 2.5%
Michael Bloomberg: 2.2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.0%
Michael Bennet: 1.3%
Cory Booker: 1.1%
John Hickenlooper: 1.0%
Julian Castro: 1.0%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.9%
Terry McAullife: 0.8%
Tim Ryan: 0.7%
Seth Moulton: 0.7%
John Delaney: 0.6%
Eric Swalwell: 0.5%
Bill De Blasio: 0.4%
Marianna Williamson: 0.3%
Richard Ojeda: 0.2%
Andrew Yang: 0.2%
Undecided: 16.6%
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« Reply #16 on: January 30, 2019, 12:23:49 pm »

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Cory Booker Launches Presidential Campaign
March 22nd, 2019

Fox News- The Long awaited campaign of Cory Booker has officially launched. With a rally in New Jersey, the junior senator from the state announced his bid for president of the United States. Booker has been planning a bid for the presidency for a little over a year and started assembling a staff by June last year and visited early states multiple times during the midterms. Booker is the third Democrat in the race after Kamala Harris and Andrew Gillum to be an African-American but he might not be the last if Eric Holder makes the jump into the field. The Democrats are looking for a diverse candidate this year but Booker is in a very diversified field, including five women, one Hindu, one Asian-America, three millennials and one Hispanic.

Booker has constantly been polling in the single digits and in what some call, the second-tier which is right below the frontrunners which are usually Harris, Joe Biden, Beto O'Rourke and Bernie Sanders. Harris could be falling out of the frontrunners after her campaign started to fall after problems in her past came out and after her surge from her excellent rollout started to end. Booker is right now, near other candidates like Kristen Gillibrand, Elizabeth Warren, John Hickenlooper, Michael Bennet, and Tulsi Gabbard.

Booker could have trouble in the field as neither Iowa or New Hampshire looks like a strong state for him. In both, he has been polling in the bottom near one percent if he got polled. Booker may choose to skip the two early states and focus on a strong state like South Carolina where he is polling well and in the top five.



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Real Clear Politics Launches Average Polling
March 25th, 2019

Real Clear Politics- As we have done with past presidential elections, the Real Clear Politics will keep an average of all accepted polling of the Democratic field. Below is the first average of the potential field of Democrats in the first two early states and nationally:

RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Joe Biden: 14.2%
Bernie Sanders: 11.4%
Beto O'Rourke: 10.1%
Kamala Harris: 7.5%
Kristen Gillibrand: 5.3%
Amy Klobuchar: 5.1%
Elizabeth Warren: 4.6%
Sherrod Brown: 3.8%
Cory Booker: 3.1%
Andrew  Gillum: 2.9%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.4%
Jay Inslee: 2.2%
Michael Bloomberg: 1.7%
Michael Bennet: 1.2%
John Hickenlooper: 1.1%
Pete Buttigieg: 1.1%
Julian Castro: 1.0%
Terry McAullife: 0.9%
Seth Moulton: 0.6%
Tim Ryan: 0.5%
John Delaney: 0.5%
Jeff Merkley: 0.3%
Bill De Blasio: 0.2%
Richard Ojeda: 0.2%
Eric Swalwell: 0.1%
Eric Holder: 0.1%
Marianna Williamson: 0.1%
Andrew Yang: 0.0%
Undecided: 22.8%

RCP Polling Average of Iowa Democrats
Joe Biden: 19.2%
Beto O'Rourke: 10.9%
Amy Klobuchar: 10.3%
Sherrod Brown: 8.6%
Bernie Sanders: 6.7%
Kamala Harris: 4.2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 4.1%
Elizabeth Warren: 3.4%
John Delaney: 3.2%
Tim Ryan: 2.7%
Andrew Gillum: 2.1%
Cory Booker: 1.7%
Michael Bloomberg: 1.3%
John Hickenlooper: 1.2%
Kristen Gillibrand: 1.1
Michael Bennet: 1.1%
Pete Buttigieg: 1.0%
Seth Moulton: 0.7%
Julian Castro: 0.6%
Andrew Yang: 0.5%
Bill De Blasio: 0.4
Jay Inslee: 0.2%
Richard Ojeda: 0.2%
Jeff Merkely: 0.1%
Eric Swalwell: 0.1%
Marianna Williamson: 0.0%
Terry McAullife: 0.0%
Undecided: 14.4%

RCP Average Polling of New Hampshire Democrats
Bernie Sanders: 14.9%
Elizabeth Warren: 11.4%
Kristen Gillibrand: 8.7%
Joe Biden: 6.5%
Beto O'Rourke: 6.2%
John Hickenlooper: 5.8%
Michael Bloomberg: 5.1%
Michael Bennet: 4.3%
Kamala Harris: 4.1%
Seth Moulton: 3.7%
Cory Booker: 2.6%
Bill De Blasio: 2.5%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.1%
Jay Inslee: 1.3%
Amy Klobuchar: 1.2%
Sherrod Brown: 0.9%
Tim Ryan: 0.7%
Julian Castro: 0.6%
Andrew Gillum: 0.5%
Terry McAuliffe: 0.5%
Jeff Merkley: 0.3%
John Delaney: 0.2%
Marianna Williamson: 0.2%
Eric Swalwell: 0.1%
Richard Ojeda: 0.1%
Pete Buttigieg: 0.0%
Andrew Yang: 0.0%
Undecided: 19.5%


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Swalwell Attacks Booker for Trump Donations
March 31st, 2019

Iowa Starting Line- To help his lagging polls after a not-so-helpful launch, Congressmen Eric Swalwell is going after the newest candidate to the race. Swalwell attacked Senator Cory Booker for holding a fundraiser with Invaka Trump in the 2014 senate race. Swalwell in a tweet this morning said, " If we are going to defeat Trump, maybe we shouldn't then elect someone who Trump supports like Cory Booker." Swalwell then sent an email to reporters went into more detail. Swalwell said that he is the anti-Trump in this race and has never accepted a check from Trump or any Trump relatives.

In 2014, Booker did accept over forty thousand dollars from the Trump family and hosted a fundraiser with them to win the primary. This attack will probably have no effect on the Booker campaign especially since almost half the Democratic and half the members of Congress have received a check from the Trump family before but it could get Swalwell name out which is much needed in this crowded field where everyone is fighting just for a few minutes of fame to launch their bid above their peers in the race.



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Gabbard, Castro, Ojeda: Are they going to make it to caucus day?

Politico- After a few weeks of falling polling, bad news and campaign staff jumping ship, will Tulsi Gabbard make it to caucus day. If we ask that then we will have to ask if Julian Castro and Richard Ojeda will make to caucus day. Will the field thin early or will the Iowa caucus cause the field to shrink?

The most likely to make it to caucus day is Gabbard out of the three candidates. Gabbard has had two big staff departures within the first few weeks of her campaign, the story about her surprise announcement angering staff and her poll numbers starting to fall after a quick rise put her campaign in quick jeopardy. Still, Gabbard has been relatively high in polls and in straw polls and she has a strong organization in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Gabbard's main benefits are her diversity and her speaking skills which still can benefit her. All Gabbard needs to do is win the debates and continue to grow her organization and strengthen fundraising then Gabbard is set to survive the next few months easily especially if she gets more momentum as she had before.

The next two candidates are much less likely to make it to caucus day if they continue on their path. Richard Ojeda could have had a strong campaign but then he set the ridiculous goal of traveling to all fifty states to campaign instead of focusing his efforts on one of the early states like Iowa which would have been a prime area for him with his pro-union message. Since launching his campaign, he has lost half of his supporters in Iowa from 0.5% to 0.2%. Ojeda has only gained two endorsements and both have little political power behind their endorsement. Unless Ojeda's fundraising is strong then there is little to point to show Ojeda making it to caucus day. Little support, little endorsement and a small amount of support in his home state.

Julian Castro is a better set than Ojeda but he could be struggling in the financial market and his low polls are hurting him. Castro has made the promise to pay everyone fifteen dollars per hour including interns. That will cost his campaign, for those thousands of dollars going to interns that probably would work for free will be taking away money from advertisements. Castro has constantly also had polling below one percent which is five times less than Gabbard. Truly, if Castro is going to make a winnable bid then he needs to not only make it to Iowa caucus day but also Nevada caucus day.
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« Reply #17 on: January 30, 2019, 05:25:45 pm »

This is fantastic.
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« Reply #18 on: January 30, 2019, 06:48:27 pm »

This is fantastic.
Thank you!
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« Reply #19 on: January 30, 2019, 07:52:06 pm »

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The Progressives join the race
April 4th, 2019

MSNBC- On April 2nd, Elizabeth Warren officially launched her campaign and today, another progressive launched his campaign. Senator Bernie Sanders who led a revolution and almost won the Democratic nomination launched his second bid for the presidency. Sanders will be one of the top candidates and could be called a frontrunner alongside Beto O'Rourke and Joe Biden. At this point, Sanders is in the low double-digits but is polling much lower in Iowa. Still, if Sanders does poorly in Iowa he can come back still with him leading in New Hampshire.

Warren was once considered a frontrunner but has fallen substantially since the midterm elections. Currently, Warren is sitting around five percent but is sitting in second place in New Hampshire and eight in Iowa. Warren does have a powerful operation though and has set up operations in important states for months now.



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Senator Tim Kaine Endorses Senator Amy Klobuchar
April 7th, 2019

The Hill- A once potential 2020 candidate and former Vice-Presidential nominee Tim Kaine has endorsed his fellow senator, Amy Klobuchar for president in 2020. Kaine and Klobuchar both are centrist in their party and have working-class backgrounds. Kaine and Klobuchar have worked together for seven years in senate also.

Klobuchar has been polling between fourth and third in Iowa while she is in the second-tier of candidates nationwide. This endorsement could boost Klobuchar's name recognition and solidify her support among party insiders which FiveThirtyEight says is Klobuchar's strongest supporters and this could take away some supporters from Biden who many thought would be getting the endorsement of Senator Tim Kaine from Virginia.

In the endorsement from Tim Kaine, he wrote in an email to reporters, "Amy has constantly proven her ability to handle difficult sitituontions like the ones we face today in the nation. Amy will be the leader that this nation needs at this time." Kaine went on to detail the history-making behind a Klobuchar winning. Kaine wrote, "We tried to make history in 2016 when I joined Hillary on the ticket but in 2020, we will make history by electing Amy."



RCP Average Polling of National Democrats
Joe Biden: 13.9% (-0.3)
Bernie Sanders: 12.8% (+1.4)
Beto O'Rourke: 9.5% (-0.6)
Kamala Harris: 7.4% (-0.1)
Amy Klobuchar: 5.6% (+0.5)
Kristen Gillibrand: 5.3% (+0.0)
Elizabeth Warren: 5.1% (+0.5)
Cory Booker: 3.7% (+0.6)
Sherrod Brown: 3.6% (-0.2)
Andrew  Gillum: 3.2% (+0.3)
Tulsi Gabbard: 2.3% (-0.1)
Jay Inslee: 2.1% (-0.1)
Michael Bloomberg: 1.5% (-0.2)
John Hickenlooper: 1.3%(+0.1)
Julian Castro: 1.3% (+0.3)
Pete Buttigieg: 1.1% (+0.0)
John Delaney: 1.0% (+0.6)
Michael Bennet: 1.0% (-0.1)
Seth Moulton: 0.8% (+0.2)
Terry McAullife: 0.5% (-0.4)
Tim Ryan: 0.5% (+0.0)
Bill De Blasio: 0.4% (+0.2)
Richard Ojeda: 0.3% (+0.1)
Eric Swalwell: 0.3% (+0.2)
Jeff Merkley: 0.1% (-0.2)
Marianna Williamson: 0.1% (+0.0)
Andrew Yang: 0.0% (+0.0)
Eric Holder: 0.0% (-0.1)
Undecided: 20.3% (-2.5)

RCP Polling Average of Iowa Democrats
Joe Biden: 19.3% (+0.1)
Amy Klobuchar: 11.0% (+0.7)
Beto O'Rourke: 10.1% (-0.8 )
Sherrod Brown: 9.1% (+0.4)
Bernie Sanders: 7.5% (+0.8 )
Elizabeth Warren: 4.4% (+1.0)
Kamala Harris: 4.0% (-0.2)
John Delaney: 3.7% (+0.5)
Tulsi Gabbard: 3.6% (-0.5)
Tim Ryan: 2.5% (-0.2)
Cory Booker: 2.4% (+0.7)
Andrew Gillum: 2.2% (+0.1)
John Hickenlooper: 1.2% (+0.0)
Michael Bloomberg: 1.1% (-0.1)
Pete Buttigieg: 1.1% (+0.1)
Kristen Gillibrand: 0.9 (-0.2)
Julian Castro: 0.8% (+0.2)
Michael Bennet: 0.7% (-0.4)
Seth Moulton: 0.7% (+0.0)
Andrew Yang: 0.6% (+0.1)
Bill De Blasio: 0.3% (-0.1)
Richard Ojeda: 0.3% (+0.1)
Eric Swalwell: 0.2% (+0.1)
Jeff Merkely: 0.1% (+0.0)
Marianna Williamson: 0.0% (+0.0)
Terry McAullife: 0.0% (+0.0)
Jay Inslee: 0.0% (-0.2)
Undecided: 12.2% (-2.2)

RCP Average Polling of New Hampshire Democrats
Bernie Sanders: 15.6% (+0.7)
Elizabeth Warren: 14.8% (+3.4)
Kristen Gillibrand: 8.2% (-0.5)
Beto O'Rourke: 6.3% (+0.1)
Joe Biden: 6.1% (-0.4)
John Hickenlooper: 6.0% (+0.2)
Michael Bloomberg: 5.4% (+0.3)
Kamala Harris: 4.1% (+0.0)
Seth Moulton: 3.8% (+0.1)
Michael Bennet: 3.4% (-0.9)
Bill De Blasio: 2.7% (+0.2)
Cory Booker: 2.3% (-0.3)
Tulsi Gabbard: 1.9% (-0.2)
Amy Klobuchar: 1.3% (+0.1)
Jay Inslee: 1.0% (-0.3)
Sherrod Brown: 0.9% (+0.0)
Tim Ryan: 0.8% (+0.1)
Julian Castro: 0.8% (+0.2)
Andrew Gillum: 0.5%
Marianna Williamson: 0.3% (+0.1)
Jeff Merkley: 0.3% (=0.0)
John Delaney: 0.2% (+0.0)
Terry McAuliffe: 0.2% (-0.3)
Eric Swalwell: 0.1% (+0.0)
Richard Ojeda: 0.0% (-0.1)
Pete Buttigieg: 0.0% (+0.0)
Andrew Yang: 0.0% (+0.0)
Undecided: 17.0% (-2.5)

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« Reply #20 on: January 31, 2019, 06:41:22 am »

Great timeline. Largest field of candidates ever
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Ishan
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« Reply #21 on: January 31, 2019, 09:00:58 am »

One of my favorite TL's now, could you do a Green polling section?
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« Reply #22 on: January 31, 2019, 10:38:49 am »

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Trump earns his first primary challenger: Bill Weld; Sam Seder annouces Libertarian bid
April 9th, 2019

Union Leader- In a rally in Concord, MA just outside of New Hampshire and the home state of the former Governor, Bill Weld announced his primary challenge of President Trump. Weld is the former Governor of Massachusetts and was the vice-presidential nominee for the Libertarians in 2016 but was a Republican up to that point. Weld even endorsed John Kasich before switching and supporting Johnson and joining him on the ticket.

In 2018, Weld endorsed multiple Libertarians across the country including some high profile Libertarians that could be running in 2020 like Larry Sharpe who lost his race for New York's governor. Still, after just a three-year stint as a Libertarian, Weld is joining the Republican party and launching a bid against a sitting president.

In his speech, Weld stated, "When I was Governor, my party stood for morals, smaller government and less debt. Sadly today, our party has abandoned morals, they have abandoned the belief of less government and less debt to win votes. Our president has shown, time and time again, that he lacks morals from locking up children to sleeping with a porn star." The morals of President Trump have constantly been a thorn in his side and many pundits have pointed to that as the door being a-jar for a primary challenge.

Weld will have a rough time if he will win especially with the RNC endorsing President Trump. His main state he will focus on will be the New Hampshire primary which borders his home state of Massachusetts. Weld has constantly held events in the early primary state which sparked the rumors of either a primary run or a Libertarian bid.

In his absence in the Libertarian field, another high profile candidate has announced his bid for the presidency. Sam Seder who host the majority report and has worked with both CNN and MSNBC is running for president in the Libertarian field. Many high profile Libertarians believe Seder is the best chance but the latest poll showed him with just seven percent of the vote.


Politico Poll of National Republicans from April 9th to April 12th
Sample Size: 576
President Donald Trump: 60.5%
John Kasich: 21.3%
Ann Coulter: 8.6%
Bill Weld: 7.1%
Undecided: 2.5%

Reason Poll of National Libertarians
Sample Size: 361
Austin Petersen: 25.7%
Justin Amash: 20.1%
John McAffee: 15.4%
Larry Sharpe: 10.8%
Adam Kokesh: 8.3%
Sam Seder: 7.6%
Avrin Vohar: 3.2%
Undecided: 8.9%


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Bernie Sanders, Bill Weld might not be able to Run in New Hampshire
April 10th, 2019

Washington Post-To register for the New Hampshire, the Democratic candidates need to be a registered Democrat and all Republicans have to be registered Republicans according to Bill Gardener who is the Sectary of State. Two candidates in the race are not running in the party they are correctly registered in. Both Senator Bernie Sanders and Former Governor Bill Weld who have put effort into New Hampshire may not even be able to run. Sanders was able to bypass this rule in 2016 by registering as a Democrat till after the New Hampshire primary but that may not work this year according to Gardner.

Sanders is currently polling in first in New Hampshire while Weld is trying to put almost all his effort in New Hampshire to take on Trump. Weld believes that if he can win enough votes to hurt Trump and give Weld momentum going into states like Vermont and Massachusetts.



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Ajamu Baraka Declares run for President
April 17th, 2019

DailyKos- With Jill Stein not running for president, the field for the green party is clear and is gaining candidates by the day. Stein's former vice-presidential candidate, Ajamu Baraka is announcing his run for president. Baraka is the third candidate in the race after Ian Schlakman and Dario Hunter. Still, the big candidates are still waiting. Jesse Ventura, the former Governor of Minnesota, has been considering the run but has danced with a run for president for the last three presidential elections and for three different parties.

The last poll shows that Ventura is in first followed by Baraka. Those are the only two candidates that have more than twenty percent in the polls, both the other candidates are much lower but the green party doesn't rely on primaries as much as other parties so only delegates support matters.


DailyKos poll of National Greens
Sample Size: 213
Jesse Ventura: 35%
Ajamu Baraka: 29%
William Kreml: 16%
Dario Hunter: 14%
Ian Schlakaman: 6%

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« Reply #23 on: January 31, 2019, 11:04:24 am »

Thank you for following my suggestion. 
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« Reply #24 on: January 31, 2019, 11:44:25 am »

Thank you for following my suggestion. 
You are welcome, always trying to look for ways to make the tl better
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