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August 20, 2019, 10:10:32 pm
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  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Eli Gorbinsky, Apocrypha)
  Post Random Maps Here 3.0
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Author Topic: Post Random Maps Here 3.0  (Read 10916 times)
#Kavanaugh For Prison
Solid4096
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« Reply #150 on: May 12, 2019, 04:50:56 pm »
« edited: May 12, 2019, 04:55:00 pm by #Kavanaugh For Prison »



Horrific nightmare I had last night, 2020.

Biden vs Trump but Biden has a major #MeToo scandal a couple weeks before the election.

The nightmare never allowed me to find out the details of who the Democratic Ticket was, and neither did I find out any details of the results of downballot races. I assumed though that Republicans took back the House handily and that there was no net change in the Senate with just Alabama and Colorado flipping as my estimate during the nightmare. The nightmare also never gave me information about the national popular vote, but I assumed Democrats won that very narrowly.
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#Kavanaugh For Prison
Solid4096
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« Reply #151 on: May 12, 2019, 06:46:38 pm »

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morgankingsley
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« Reply #152 on: May 18, 2019, 05:59:28 am »

There is no point to this map, I just wanted to see what the colors would look like on the 10% thing since I've never seen that



Edit: Interesting, it doesn't even process for republican, democrat, or independent, and only for fourth parties and beyond. And with the white color, you can effective add another party to the race if you want, as long as you put at least a '4' on the party number
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #153 on: May 18, 2019, 10:27:54 am »

There is no point to this map, I just wanted to see what the colors would look like on the 10% thing since I've never seen that



Edit: Interesting, it doesn't even process for republican, democrat, or independent, and only for fourth parties and beyond. And with the white color, you can effective add another party to the race if you want, as long as you put at least a '4' on the party number
What happened to AL, AK, and AZ? Their electoral numbers got erased but the other white states didn't get theirs erased.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #154 on: May 18, 2019, 03:19:31 pm »

There is no point to this map, I just wanted to see what the colors would look like on the 10% thing since I've never seen that



Edit: Interesting, it doesn't even process for republican, democrat, or independent, and only for fourth parties and beyond. And with the white color, you can effective add another party to the race if you want, as long as you put at least a '4' on the party number
What happened to AL, AK, and AZ? Their electoral numbers got erased but the other white states didn't get theirs erased.

Those were just not processed for some reason. My guess is that maybe since 20 percent counts as state legislature victories for republican, democrat, and independent, maybe the processor didn't imagine any way where it could go lower than that (so pretty much no five or six way relatively even race) but with '4' and beyond since there has almost never been four parties to win states in elections, maybe it was able to process that way. Maybe you can ask Dave about it on the Atlas board. He might be able to explain it
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538Electoral
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« Reply #155 on: May 19, 2019, 02:18:09 am »



Simulating a 1980 Carter win.

Carter 286
Reagan 252
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538Electoral
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« Reply #156 on: May 19, 2019, 03:00:01 am »

2000: Gore wins all close Bush states.



Gore 343
Bush 195
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538Electoral
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« Reply #157 on: May 19, 2019, 03:06:58 am »

2004: Gore wins Re-Election by winning all close Bush states once again. Losing Florida, Tennessee and Missouri while gaining Colorado.

Outcome not known for a few days.



Gore 298
Bush 240
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #158 on: May 19, 2019, 04:07:31 am »
« Edited: May 19, 2019, 04:14:04 am by morgankingsley »

2016 but all states won by less than 50.1 percent are flipped



Oregon would barely flip to Trump in this case by about 600 votes. Ends up in a 284-254 Hillary win. Trump ends up being the first republican to win at least one west coast and new england state and lose since 1976 and the first republican to win Minnesota at all since 1972. He is the first to win any new england state at all since 2000, the first to win any west coast at all since 1988, the first to win Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico at all since 2004, and the first candidate to win Ohio but lose the electoral college since 1960. On the opposite end, Hillary is the first democrat to win Utah at all since 1964, and the first to win Arizona at all since 1996.

ironic since in this situation, I think 2016 might be the inverse of real life. In this, I think Trump might actually win the popular vote but lose the electoral college. This is probably the most realistic Trump win popular vote - lose electoral vote - situation you can possibly get.

Now that I think about it, I think this also makes this universes 2016 the first election in which a republican won at least one state in every single region of the country since 1988
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #159 on: May 19, 2019, 02:06:39 pm »
« Edited: May 28, 2019, 06:20:21 pm by Let Dogs Survive »

PV Distributions*

*Had to get very creative with 1968 and 1924

A) [1920-1936]



B) [1940-1956]



C) [1960-1976]




D) [1980-1996]



E)[2000-2016]
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mathstatman
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« Reply #160 on: May 19, 2019, 06:31:05 pm »

1956: only Black votes count

Stevenson 61% / 384 EV
Eisenhower 39% / 147 EV
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #161 on: May 19, 2019, 07:04:13 pm »

It's Midnight in America

Just a random, unrealistic scenario that I thought up.

2020

Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT) / Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) 279 EVs
President Donald Trump (R-NY) / Vice President Michael Pence (R-IN) 259 EVs

2023: Recession begins. Russia annexes Belarus.

2024

Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) / Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) 295 EVs
Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA) / Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) 243 EVs

2025: War with Iran begins.
2026: Russian and China begin aiding Iran. Thousands of Americans die.
2027: Antiwar protests shake US. California attempts to secede.
2028: California is ejected from the Union. Civil war begins. US withdraws from Iran.

2028

Governor Lauren Underwood (D-IL) / Former AG Doug Jones (D-AL) 252 EVs
President Ron DeSantis (R-FL) / Vice President Tom Cotton (R-AR) 231 EVs

2029: President DeSantis and the Republican Lame Duck Congress nullify the results in Oregon, Nevada, and Arizona, citing nefarious Californian influence. DeSantis is re-elected, causing riots across the United States.
2030: Civil war breaks out when the Northwest and the Northeast secede. Census proceedings are disturbed. President DeSantis declares martial law.
2031: Rebels take the states of Nevada and Arizona and occupy much of Idaho and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, loyalist forces capture Baltimore.
2032: The United States holds elections, which the rebel states claim are rigged. 

2032 United States Election

President Ron DeSantis (N-FL) / Vice President Tom Cotton (N-AR) 295 EVs
Former Governor John Hickenlooper (REF-CO) / Former Governor John Kasich (REF-OH) 46 EVs
National Party (N) is in blue, while Reform Party (REF) is in green.

2033: Stalemate in the Civil War ensues. Both sides lessen democratic rights in the areas they control, and enact martial law. The war becomes increasingly brutal, but neither side makes significant gains.
2034: China begins aiding the rebels. Montana, Wyoming, and Utah secede and adopt a policy of neutrality. A nuclear silo is accidentally bombed in North Dakota, causing fallout to disperse across the state and the region.
2035: Tom Cotton overthrows the DeSantis regime in a coup d'etat, establishing the American National State. Cotton, along with loyal military members, indefinitely suspends all elections.
2036: Colorado and New Mexico secede, and are occupied by rebel forces before the ANS can attack them. Delaware falls to the ANS.
2037: President Cotton cracks down on dissidents, and many are executed. Several, including 2032 candidate John Kasich, flee to Canada or rebel-held areas.
2038: China and NATO begin sending troops to the rebels, while the Russians begin supplying the ANS (it is also revealed that Russia aided Cotton in the 2035 coup).
2039: World War III begins. 
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #162 on: May 19, 2019, 11:57:33 pm »

1956: only Black votes count

Stevenson 61% / 384 EV
Eisenhower 39% / 147 EV

Where did you find the data for this? Also I would think the number of black votes in the Deep South would be too small to measure.


Oh, and how did Stevenson dominate with blacks in Vermont and Maine, given that Eisenhower cleared 70% in both states?
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Trans Rights Are Human Rights
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« Reply #163 on: May 20, 2019, 04:22:34 am »

There simply aren't that many Black people in Vermont and Maine, for one, especially in 1956.
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Ishan
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« Reply #164 on: May 21, 2019, 09:37:32 am »

There simply aren't that many Black people in Vermont and Maine, for one, especially in 1956.
Even now, there is not enough blacks to poll them in Vermont.
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« Reply #165 on: May 22, 2019, 04:43:13 am »

2008 presidential election

Barack Obama/Joe Biden-Democratic: 379 EV 54.36%
John McCain/Sarah Palin-Republican: 159 EV 44.10%
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #166 on: May 23, 2019, 06:07:09 pm »





Possible wave scenario in 2020
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Grassr00ts
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« Reply #167 on: May 23, 2019, 07:52:56 pm »


Tf Alabama
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Pericles
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« Reply #168 on: May 23, 2019, 09:27:56 pm »

I made a pro-Trump gerrymander on Redraw the States (I had to reverse Atlas colors by necessity)
2016 US presidential election
Donald Trump/Mike Pence-Republican: 382 EV 45.93%
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine-Democratic: 156 EV 48.02%

State results;
AL: 8 EV Trump +24.37%
AK: 3 EV Trump +15.17%
AZ: 22 EV Trump +5.50%
AR: 6 EV Trump +26.99%

CA: 44 EV Clinton +36.56%
CO: 5 EV Clinton +26.69%
CT: 7 EV Clinton +15.05%

DE: 7 EV Trump +10.57%
DC: 3 EV Clinton +88.72%
FL: 30 EV Trump +3.49%
GA: 18 EV Trump +11.07%

HI: 4 EV Clinton +32.18%
ID: 7 EV Trump +18.87%
IL: 13 EV Clinton +38.20%
IN: 9 EV Trump +15.94%
IA: 10 EV Trump +9.88%
KS: 6 EV Trump +21.03%
KY: 8 EV Trump +29.87%
LA: 8 EV Trump +19.65%

ME: 3 EV Clinton +16.97%
MD: 9 EV Clinton +48.08%
MA: 11 EV Clinton +27.28%

MI: 19 EV Trump +6.08%
MN: 5 EV Clinton +27.18%
MS: 6 EV Trump +14.01%
MO: 14 EV Trump +20.76%
MT: 7 EV Trump +16.96%
NE: 5 EV Trump +26.31%
NV: 8 EV Trump +9.42%
NH: 5 EV Trump +2.27%

NJ: 10 EV Clinton +29.06%
NM: 4 EV Clinton +24.32%
NY: 19 EV Clinton +39.40%

NC: 17 EV Trump +8.52%
ND: 3 EV Trump +36.39%
OH: 16 EV Trump +5.48%
OK: 7 EV Trump +36.40%

OR: 4 EV Clinton +37.93%
PA: 34 EV Trump +3.22%
RI: 4 EV Clinton +15.66%
SC: 7 EV Trump +8.10%
SD: 3 EV Trump +29.80%
TN: 8 EV Trump +16.72%
TX: 36 EV Trump +7.97%
UT: 6 EV Trump +13.83%

VT: 3 EV Clinton +37.54%
VA: 14 EV Trump +3.67%
WA: 8 EV Clinton +29.30%
WV: 4 EV Trump +44.75%
WI: 14 EV Trump +7.49%
WY: 7 EV Trump +20.27%


MI is tipping-point state, Clinton needs to win PV by 8.17% to win Electoral College majority. Note I tried to strike a balance between maximizing Trump's electoral votes and ensuring his electoral votes are as safe as possible.
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #169 on: May 24, 2019, 12:13:44 am »

Different Alignment

2008

Sen. Hillary Rodham (D-VA) / Gov. Phil Bredesen (D-TN) 433 EVs 53.6%
Sen. John McCain (R-UT) / Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY) 105 EVs 44.9%

2012

Pres. Hillary Rodham (D-VA) / Vice Pres. Phil Bredesen (D-TN) 327 EVs 49.8%
Fmr. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) / Former SoS Colin Powell (R-NY) 211 EVs 48.6%

2016

Vice President Phil Bredesen (D-TN) / Gov. Alex Sink (D-FL) 269 EVs 49.0%
Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY) / Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) 269 EVs 49.4%
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« Reply #170 on: May 24, 2019, 09:50:04 pm »

Al Franken's predictions for the 1988 election.


Heres the source: https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/weekend-update-segment---al-frankens-electoral-map/n9717
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swamiG
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« Reply #171 on: May 24, 2019, 10:17:51 pm »


Love the clip! I miss him
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #172 on: May 25, 2019, 01:37:07 pm »


This was a pretty sensible prediction, although I would have flipped Ohio instead of Texas.
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El Bayamés
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« Reply #173 on: May 25, 2019, 02:55:47 pm »


Pres. Harry S Truman (D of MO) - 259 votes, 49.5%
Gov. Thomas E. Dewey (R of NY) - 234 votes, 44.6%
Gov. Strom Thurmond (D of SC) - 38 votes, 2.7%
Former VP Henry A. Wallace (D of IA) - 0 votes, 3.2%

vs. real life:
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #174 on: May 25, 2019, 03:55:35 pm »


Pres. Harry S Truman (D of MO) - 259 votes, 49.5%
Gov. Thomas E. Dewey (R of NY) - 234 votes, 44.6%
Gov. Strom Thurmond (D of SC) - 38 votes, 2.7%
Former VP Henry A. Wallace (D of IA) - 0 votes, 3.2%

vs. real life:

I think this would make Thurmond the only third party in history to win at least two states, and all of them with an absolute majority of the vote
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