Post Random Maps Here 3.0

[DeSantis4Prez]

1976, no watergate

✓ Vice President Gerald R. Ford (R-MI)/Governor Ronald W. Reagan (R-CA): 277 EV, 49.5%
Governor James E. Carter (D-GA)/Senator Walter F. Mondale (D-MN): 261 EV, 49%

I think Gerald Ford has zero interest to run for president in 1976 if Nixon served out his term. Or is he nominated a compromise candidate in a deadlocked Reagan-Rockefeller or Connally-Reagan primary?

Yeah I would assume so. I put Ford because I'm assuming he has ambitions for the Presidency just like  in 1976.

[538Electoral]

When playing President Elect, I got this 1960 landslide Nixon map while playing a random scenario with Nixon against Kennedy.

418-119

[538Electoral]

Got this strange map trying to get a Humphrey 1968 win in President Elect. Don't ask how PA went Nixon.

348-163-27

[President Johnson]

(2020) Presidential Election in Designated Survior

The third season ends with this map, that has independent president Tom Kirkman reelected to a full term in office. The popular vote are my estimates.

✓ President Thomas Kirkman (I-PA)/National Security Advisor Aaron Shore (I-TX): 318 EV. (44.54%)
Former President Cornelius Moss (R-TX)/Unknown running mate (R-??): 148 EV. (35.25%)
Businessman William Porter (D-NY)/Unknown running mate (D-??): 72 EV. (20.03%)


I know, the map is a little weird, but the series itsself is great.

[OSR stands with Israel]

(2020) Presidential Election in Designated Survior

The third season ends with this map, that has independent president Tom Kirkman reelected to a full term in office. The popular vote are my estimates.

✓ President Thomas Kirkman (I-PA)/National Security Advisor Aaron Shore (I-TX): 318 EV. (44.54%)
Former President Cornelius Moss (R-TX)/Unknown running mate (R-??): 148 EV. (35.25%)
Businessman William Porter (D-NY)/Unknown running mate (D-??): 72 EV. (20.03%)


I know, the map is a little weird, but the series itsself is great.

Conspiracy Theory: Tom Kirkman is really Jack Bauer who assumed a new identity

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Businessman Donald Trump/Governor Mike Pence (2017-2025)
2016: Def. Fmr. Sec. of State Hillary Clinton/Senator Tim Kaine 2020: Def. Senator Elizabeth Warren/Entrepreneur Andrew Yang and Fmr. Mayor Michael Bloomberg/Businessman Howard Schultz

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez/Senator Tammy Duckworth (2025-2029)
2024: Def. VP Mike Pence/Senator Lindsay Graham

Governor Ron Desantis/Senator Josh Hawley (2029-2033)
2028: Def. Pres. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez/VP Tammy Duckworth and Fmr. Governor Lincoln Chafee/Fmr. Rep. Thomas Massie

Senator John Fetterman/Governor Cyrus Habib (2033-2037)
2032: Def. Pres. Ron DeSantis/VP Josh Hawley

Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith*/Senator Jeff Duncan (2037-2039)
2036: Def. Pres. John Fetterman/VP Cyrus Habib

Governor Dominique McLean/Fmr. Governor Beto O'Rourke (2041-???)
2040: Def. President Jeff Duncan/Fmr. VP Josh Hawley and Rep. Andrew Yang/Businessman Elon Musk [UBI Now] and Charlie Kirk/Dennis Prager [Anti-Furry Action]

Electoral College is abolished after the 2040 election.

[😥]

1960: Sen. Lyndon B. Johnson (D-TX)/Sen. Hubert Humphrey (D-MN) 292 EVs; 49,58% PV defeated VP Richard Nixon (R-CA)/Sen. Clifford Case (R-NJ) 245 EVs; 49,56% PV

1964: Pres. Lyndon B. Johnson (D-TX)/VP Hubert Humphrey (D-MN) 487 EVs; 60,9% PV defeated Sen. Barry Goldwater (R-AZ)/Rep. William Miller (R-NY) 51 EVs; 30,9% PV

1968: Gov. Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY)/House Min. Leader Gerald Ford (R-MI) 321 EVs; 48,8% PV defeated Pres. Hubert Humphrey (D-MN)/Sen. Edmund Muskie (D-ME) 184 EVs; 44,2% PV

1972: Pres. Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY)/VP Gerald Ford (R-MI) 528 EVs; 63,2% PV defeated Sen. George McGovern (D-SD)/Fmr. Gov. Terry Sanford (D-NC) 10 EVs; 36,4% PV

1976: Sen. Edmund Muskie (D-ME)/Sen. Frank Church (D-ID) 277 EVs; 50,5% PV defeated VP Gerald Ford (R-MI)/Sen. John Chafee (R-RI) 261 EVs; 49,3% PV

1980: Pres. Edmund Muskie (D-ME)/VP Frank Church (D-ID) 493 EVs; 61,6% PV defeated Fmr. Gov. Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Sen. Bob Dole (R-KS) 45 EVs; 37,9% PV

1984: Fmr. VP Gerald Ford (R-MI)/Fmr. CIA Director George H.W. Bush (R-TX) 270 EVs; 49,6% PV defeated Sen. Walter Mondale (D-MN)/Rep. Geraldine Ferraro (D-NY) 268 EVs; 49,8% PV

1988: VP George H.W. Bush (R-TX)/Sen. Paul Laxalt (R-NV) 272 EVs; 49,9% PV defeated Gov. Michael Dukakis (D-MA)/Gov. Bill Clinton (D-AR) 266 EVs; 49,3% PV

1992: Sen. Al Gore (D-TN)/Sen. Bob Graham (D-FL) 444 EVs; 49,2% PV defeated Pres. George H.W. Bush (R-TX)/VP Paul Laxalt (R-NV) 96 EVs; 38,1% PV

1996: Pres. Al Gore (D-TN)/VP Bob Graham (D-FL) 512 EVs; 62,8% PV defeated Sen. Bob Dole (R-KS)/Fmr. Sec. Jack Kemp (R-NY) 26 EVs; 36,7% PV

2000: VP Bob Graham (D-FL)/Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) 419 EVs; 54,1% PV defeated Fmr. Sec. Dick Cheney (R-WY)/Sen. George W. Bush (R-TX) 119 EVs; 44,9% PV

2004: Pres. Bob Graham (D-FL)/VP Russ Feingold (D-WI) 318 EVs; 49,9% PV defeated Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH)/Sen. Jeb Bush (R-FL) 220 EVs; 48,5% PV

2008: Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)/Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) 347 EVs; 53,1% PV defeated VP Russ Feingold (D-WI)/Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) 191 EVs; 46,0% PV

2012: VP Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)/Sen. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) 335 EVs; 51,8% PV defeated Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL)/Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) 203 EVs; 47,7% PV

2016: Pres. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)/VP Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) 274 EVs; 48,1% PV defeated Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)/Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) 264 EVs; 49,0% PV

2020: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)/Gov. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) 491 EVs; 59,9% PV defeated Gov. Doug Ducey (R-AZ)/Sen. Mike Pence (R-IN) 47 EVs; 38,2% PV

2024: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)/Gov. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) 498 EVs; 62,4% PV defeated Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH)/Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) 40 EVs; 35,3% PV

Note. Electoral College abolished after 2024 election, two-round system created, term-limits: 2 terms (10 years)

2028:
Fmr. Gov. Charlie Baker (R-MA)/Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) 55,8% PV
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ)/Sen. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) 42,4% PV

[Politician]

1996 with 5% swing towards Clinton.

[538Electoral]

2000: Donald Trump on the Reform ticket rides into the White House.

278-135-125

[538Electoral]

2004: The Donald still on the Reform ticket wins in blowout.

(Ignore the green on ME and NE, Both are Trump states)

432-77-29

[Sir Mohamed]

1992: HW reelected

✓ President George Bush (R-TX)/Vice President Dan Quayle (R-IN): 278 EVs.; 49.5%
Governor Bill Clinton (D-AR)/Mayor Kurt Schmoke (D-MD): 260 EVs.; 49.1%


1996 after 2 terms of HW

✓ Senator Al Gore (D-TN)/Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA): 338 EVs.; 52.1%
Senator Robert Dole (R-KS)/Former Sec. Jack Kemp (R-NY): 200 EVs.; 46.4%

[Sir Mohamed]

Continuation

Al Gore reelected prez, 2000

✓ President Al Gore (D-TN)/Vice President Tom Harkin (D-IA): 329 EVs.; 51.1%
Governor George W. Bush (R-TX)/Senator John Ashcroft (R-MO): 209 EVs.; 47.5%


2004, GOP rebound, John McCain elected prez

✓ Senator John McCain (R-AZ)/Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL): 283 EVs.; 50.2%
Senator John Kerry (D-MA)/Treasury Sec. Richard Gephardt (D-MO): 255 EVs.; 47.9%


2008, Great Recession makes McCain a one term prez

✓ Senator Joe Biden (D-DE)/Senator Barack Obama (D-IL): 353 EVs.; 53.1%
President John McCain (R-AZ)/Vice President Jeb Bush (R-FL): 185 EVs.; 45.3%

[morgankingsley]

After spending -I'm not exaggerating at all when I say this- over a year trying to do so, I finally got a campaign trail where George Wallace wins South Carolina. Here is the map

[America Needs R'hllor]

I'm doing this Israeli scenario here because there's no other relevant thread for proportional parliamentary system election results and government formation.

Israeli Legislative Election (September 2019) Results
Blue and White (Benny Gantz)- 33 Seats
Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu)- 32 Seats
Joint List (Ayman Odeh)- 13 Seats
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 9 Seats
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)- 8 Seats
United Torah Judaism (Ya'akov Litzman)- 7 Seats
Yamina (Ayelet Shaked)- 7 Seats
Labour-Gesher (Amir Peretz)- 6 Seats
Democratic Camp (Nitzan Horovitz)- 5 Seats

Scenario: In November 2019, after two legislative elections and the possibility of a third one looming close, the government formation mandate of Blue and White leader Benny Gantz was about to expire. Afterwards, there would be 21 days in which 61 members of Knesset would need to support a candidate for Prime Minister or an election would be triggered. And so, Gantz decided on a bold solution- a minority government, supported from outside by the Arabic parties and with the abstention of Yisrael Beiteinu's Avigdor Lieberman. The government was framed as a temporary solution, until Prime Minister Netanyahu is formally indicted.

And so, coalition agreements were formalized with two ally parties, Labour-Gesher and the Democratic Camp- for the former, Gantz agreed to raise the minimum wage, invest in the periphery and ban contract employment, and for the latter, Gantz agreed to begin a large-scale Green New Deal plan advocated by them during the election. B&W also agreed on various issues with the Joint Arab List, including comprehensive plans to reduce crime in the Arab public and to start peace negotiations with the Palestinians. With Yisrael Beiteinu, Gantz agreed to advance a number of Lieberman's campaign promises such as increased pensions for retired Israelis, civil marriage and religious conversion reform that favour Russian immigrants.

Coalition (44 Seats)- Blue and White (33 Seats), Labour-Gesher (6 Seats), Democratic Camp (5 Seats)

Supply and Demand (13 Seats)- Joint List (13 Seats)

Opposition (Abstention)- Yisrael Beiteinu (8 Seats)

Opposition (Opposing)- Likud (32 Seats), Shas (9 Seats), United Torah Judaism (7 Seats), Yamina (7 Seats)

35th Israeli Government:

Prime Minister: Benny Gantz (B&W)
Foreign Minister: Yair Lapid (B&W)
Defense Minister: Gabby Ashkenazi (B&W)
Finance Minister: Amir Peretz (Labour-Gesher)
Justice Minister: Nitzan Horovitz (Democratic Camp)
Education Minister: Moshe "Bogie" Ya'alon (B&W)
Health Minister: Orly Levy-Abekasis (Labour-Gesher)
Home Minister: Yair Golan (Democratic Camp)
Economy and Industry Minister: Avi Nissankorn (B&W)
Internal Security Minister: Orna Barbivai (B&W)
Construction and Housing Minister: Ofer Shelah (B&W)
Transportation and Road Safety Minister: Yael German (B&W)
Communications Minister: Miki Haimovich (B&W)
Labour, Welfare and Social Services Minister: Itzik Shmuli (Labour-Gesher)
Agriculture and Rural Development Minister: Merav Michaeli (Labour-Gesher)
Periphery, Negev and Galilee Development Minister: Michael Biton (B&W)
Energy and Water Minister: Orit Farkash-Hacohen (B&W)
Environmental Protection Minister: Stav Shaffir (Democratic Union)
Science and Technology Minister: Merav Cohen (B&W)
Culture and Sports Minister: Hili Trooper (B&W)
Tourism Minister: Assaf Zamir (B&W)
Immigration and Integration Minister: Yoel Razvozov (B&W)
Social Equality and Minority Affairs Minister: Karin Elharar (B&W)
Jerusalem and Diaspora Affairs Minister: Yoaz Hendel (B&W)
Religious Affairs Minister: Elazar Stern (B&W)

Speaker of the Knesset: Meir Cohen (B&W)
Chairperson of the Finance Committee: Zvi Hauser (B&W)
Chairperson of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee: Omer Bar Lev (Labour-Gesher)

Later, I'm gonna make a post for a scenario in which another election is held. There is a B&W-Yisrael Beiteinu-Labour scenario that is way more likely than the one I'm presenting here, btw, but that's just simply not fun enough so I'm doing this one.

[President Johnson]

2016 election: House of Cards ticket vs. real ticket

Jack Conway vs. Hillary Clinton: I think Conway is the kind of Republican would beat Hillary very easily.

✓ Governor Jack Conway (R-NY)/General Ted Brockhart (R-??): 309 EV. (49.71%)
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Timothy M. Kaine (D-VA): 229 EV. (48.35%)


Frank Underwood vs. Donald Trump: There is no way Frank Underwood loses an election.

✓ President Francis J. Underwood (D-SC)/First Lady Claire Underwood (D-TX): 314 EV. (51.11%)
Entertainer Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Governor Michael R. Pence (R-IN): 224 EV. (45.89%)

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Might change this for my TL as I haven't completely worked out each and every detail for anything beyond the 60s, but feel free to guess the three candidates. Who knows, come the 1964 Election for Byrne It All, you might be right.

Republican : 270
Democrat : 215
? : 53

[Grassroots]

2016 election: House of Cards ticket vs. real ticket

Jack Conway vs. Hillary Clinton: I think Conway is the kind of Republican would beat Hillary very easily.

✓ Governor Jack Conway (R-NY)/General Ted Brockhart (R-??): 309 EV. (49.71%)
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Timothy M. Kaine (D-VA): 229 EV. (48.35%)


Frank Underwood vs. Donald Trump: There is no way Frank Underwood loses an election.

✓ President Francis J. Underwood (D-SC)/First Lady Claire Underwood (D-TX): 314 EV. (51.11%)
Entertainer Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Governor Michael R. Pence (R-IN): 224 EV. (45.89%)

Will Conway, actually. He reminded me of a young and skinny Chris Christie type republican.

[538Electoral]

2008: Reform Party fully replaces the Republican Party. Ross Perot runs against Obama and wins easily.

352-186

[America Needs R'hllor]

Scenario 2: In November 2019, Blue and White leader Benny Gantz's attempts to form a unity government with Likud leader Netanyahu fail, and he's also unable to form a minority government due to the opposition of Yisrael Beiteinu's Avigdor Lieberman. 21 days later, the attempts to form a government of 61 MKs fails too, and a new election is triggered for March 31st, 2020.

The campaign sees a new level of dirty tactics, after the already-dirty two previous elections.  By the end of November, during the 21-days period, Netanyahu was indicted for bribery, fraud and breach of trust, and with the indictment official his polling numbers were harmed even more. Polls show a picture in which the right-religious bloc bleeds even more seats, and Netanyahu's Likud employs a racist campaign that focuses on Gantz's attempts to cooperate with the Joint List. Meanwhile, Blue and White focuses on accusing Netanyahu of forcing the election due to his ego and criminal indictment. Turnout for the election threatened to be low, with many desperate of the stagnation, but the feeling of a grave decision motivated many to go out and vote. In the end, the result showed where the winds of the Israeli population were blowing.

Israeli Legislative Election (March 2020) Results
Blue and White (Benny Gantz)- 34 Seats ↑ (+1)
Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu)- 28 Seats ↓ (-4)
Joint List (Ayman Odeh)- 15 Seats ↑ (+2)
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 9 Seats = (+-0)
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)- 8 Seats = (+-0)
United Torah Judaism (Ya'akov Litzman)- 8 Seats ↑ (+1)
Labour-Gesher (Amir Peretz)- 8 Seats ↑ (+2)
Democratic Camp (Nitzan Horovitz)- 5 Seats = (+-0)
United Right Wing Parties (Rafi Peretz)- 5 Seats ↓ (-2)

In the end, it seemed, the gamble did not pay off for Netanyahu. The public viewed him overwhelmingly as the one to blame for the election, with many Likud or Yamina voters unsatisfied with their parties sticking by Netanyahu staying home. Meanwhile, Blue and White voters were motivated to go out in droves and vote, and even many new voters decided that Netanyahu had to be punished and went out to vote for center-left parties. Lieberman, despite bleeding some Russian immigrant support, was rewarded with support of some Likud voters, while the Arab turnout surged again with the possibility of more participation in the government and the Joint List reached an unprecedented number of 15 Seats. The United Right Wing Parties, despite absorbing the Kahanists again, fell down to their original 5 Seats, but Shaked and Bennet joining Likud didn't do the ruling party any favours due to the loss of support in other ways. Labour-Gesher, meanwhile, managed to use the fact that they kept their word and didn't join Netanyahu after the previous election, as well as an economically populist campaign that appealed to people who were tired of Netanyahu, to gain sunstantially in the periphery areas.

But Netanyahu refused to step down as leader and, having won the Likud leadership primary against Gideon Sa'ar in late 2019, it wasn't possible to remove him from within, despite increasing grumbling from Likud MKs who saw the collapse in the election while Netanyahu lead them. With Netanyahu refusing a unity government unless he's the first in the rotation or receives an immunity from his indictment, there was no other choice- Gantz signed coalition agreements with Labour-Gesher and the Democratic Camp, and with the Joint List for outside support in exchange for many legislative concessions to Israeli Arabic interests. the reduced Netanyahu bloc of 50 strongly opposed the government and contineud to fan the flames, some Likud MKs calling Gantz "a traitor", and Yisrael Beiteinu also opposed it strongly, though Lieberman said that he's hopeful Likud would join the unity government after "waking up from Netanyahu's delusions".

Coalition (47 Seats)- Blue and White (34 Seats), Labour-Gesher (8 Seats), Democratic Camp (5 Seats)

Supply and Demand (15 Seats)- Joint List (15 Seats)

Opposition- Likud (28 Seats), Shas (9 Seats), Yisrael Beiteinu (8 Seats), United Torah Judaism (8 Seats), United Right Wing Parties (5 Seats)

The Ministries are pretty much what I presented in my previous post.

[Calthrina950]

Here's another scenario which I've devised:

Henry Thomas Ferguson (D-TX)/Amy Jean Klobuchar (D-MN)-61.05%-497 EV

William Holcombe Pryor, Jr. (R-AL)/Paul Davis Ryan (R-WI)-38.76%-41 EV

And here's the county map:

As can be seen, this is a map of an alternate version of the 2016 presidential election, based in an alternate timeline with a divergence point in 1992-George H.W. Bush wins reelection to the Presidency. It is similar, in a way, to the Rutherford Scenario that I posted long ago. What makes this map different is that it is based, as closely as possible, on more modern elections. Most of the state county maps here were derived from elections of the 2000s and 2010s, with several from the 1990s, one from the 1980s, and one (Nevada) from the 1970s.

The incumbent Democratic President, Ferguson, who is a distant relative of the husband and wife Fergusons who were Governors of Texas in the early 20th century, wins a landslide reelection over his Republican opponent, Senator Pryor of Alabama (who is a federal judge in OTL). Pryor's extreme social and economic conservatism play poorly outside of the Deep South, compounded further by the fact that his running mate is Paul Ryan. Ryan's views on the social safety net, particularly for the privatization of Social Security and Medicare, are received very negatively by many voters. Ferguson, who is a JBE-like Democrat, moderate on social issues and solidly liberal on economic issues, wins a decisive landslide, obtaining 61% of the national popular vote. Beating Pryor by a margin of more than 30 million votes, Ferguson carries 46 states and the District of Columbia. Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina are the only states to vote for Pryor.

Of the 3,144 counties/independent cities/districts making returns, Ferguson wins in 2,335 (74.27%) while Pryor carries 809 (25.73%). Ferguson carries 487 of the 490 Clinton counties (99.38%) and 1,848 of the 2,622 Trump counties (70.48%); Pryor wins 806 of the 2,622 Trump counties (29.52%) and 3 of the 490 Clinton counties (0.62%). The only three Clinton counties to vote for Pryor are Cobb, Gwinnett, and Henry Counties, Georgia, the three suburban counties around Atlanta that defected to the Democrats in 2016 for the first time since Jimmy Carter. Ferguson wins every other Clinton county outside of Georgia.

Every county in twelve states votes Democratic: Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont (in addition to D.C. as well). Ferguson sweeps all of New England, carrying every Trump county in that region; he also wins every Trump county in Alaska, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York. Ferguson wins the majority of counties in 43 states, Pryor in 6 (the 4 states that he carries, in addition to Florida and Nebraska). Ferguson and Pryor tie in Idaho, carrying 22 counties each.

Ferguson's coalition is a blend of the New Deal and modern Democratic coalitions. He wins every racial group, carrying whites 53-47%, blacks 95-5%, Hispanics 77-23%, Asians 76-24%, and Others 68-32%. Ferguson dominates in the majority-minority counties across the country-the Black Belt, South Texas, Northern New Mexico, Southern Colorado, Northern Arizona, "bush" Alaska, and the Native American reservations throughout the West (and those in North Carolina and Wisconsin), give him commanding margins. He dominates college-town counties, receiving over 60% of the vote in Clarke County, Georgia, Boone County, Missouri, Hays County, Texas, Monroe County, Indiana, Centre County, Pennsylvania, and Albany County, Wyoming, and over 70% in Boulder County, Colorado, Douglas County, Kansas, Johnson County, Iowa, Athens County, Ohio, Washtenaw County, Michigan, Tompkins County, New York, Charlottesville, Virginia, and Dane County, Wisconsin, to give some examples.

Ferguson demolishes Pryor in the ski resorts and tourist counties out west, obtaining over 60% of the vote in Summit County, Utah and Mono County, California, and over 70% in Alpine County, California, Blaine County, Idaho, Teton County, Wyoming, Pitkin County, Colorado, and San Juan County, Colorado. White liberal bastions-such as Jefferson County, Washington, the counties of the Bay Area, and Windham County, Vermont, give over 70% of their votes to Ferguson. Ferguson also shows considerable strength in traditionally Democratic mining and working-class areas. He receives over 60% of the vote in Sweetwater County, Wyoming, the counties of the Idaho Panhandle, and Greenlee County, Arizona, over 70% in Carbon County, Utah, and Silver Bow County, Montana, and over 80% in Deer Lodge County, Montana, Democratic strongholds of this type in the West.

The traditionally Democratic areas of Appalachia-such as Mahoning, Trumbull, Jefferson, Belmont, and Monroe Counties, Ohio, those of Eastern Kentucky (i.e. Rowan, Breathitt, etc.), Greene, Fayette, Cambria, and Elk Counties, Pennsylvania, the counties of West Virginia, and those of central Tennessee, turn in massive victories for Ferguson, who breaks 60% or 70% of the vote in many of these counties. Other blue-collar areas in the Midwest, such as the Iron Range of Minnesota, Downstate Illinois (i.e. Rock Island, Gallatin Counties), the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, the Gary-South Bend region of NW Indiana, and the exurbs of St. Louis, show similarly strong support for the Democratic ticket, with Ferguson maintaining an iron grip on the white working-class voters who supported Trump in 2016, and had defected from Obama, Kerry, Gore, and Clinton. Ferguson also dominates the Little Dixie region of Oklahoma, the traditionally Democratic rural areas of West and East Texas, the rural areas of the Eastern Dakotas, and those of Western Wisconsin. He is particularly strong throughout the rural Northeast.

Ferguson throughly dominates urban areas, receiving over 60% of the vote in Clark County, Nevada (Las Vegas), Miami-Dade County, Florida (Miami), Leon County, Florida (Tallahassee), Fulton County, Georgia (Atlanta), Caddo Parish, Louisiana (Shreveport), East Baton Rouge Parish, Louisiana (Baton Rouge), Montgomery County, Alabama (Montgomery), Richland County, South Carolina (Columbia), Harris County, Texas (Houston), Bexar County, Texas (San Antonio), Dallas County, Texas (Dallas), Tarrant County, Texas (Ft. Worth), Shawnee County, Kansas (Topeka), Salt Lake County, Utah (Salt Lake City), Lancaster County, Nebraska (Lincoln), Sacramento County, California (Sacramento), King County, Washington (Seattle), Davidson County, Tennessee (Nashville), Mecklenburg County, North Carolina (Charlotte), Fairfax County, Virginia (NoVA), New Castle County, Delaware (Wilmington), Allegheny County, Pennsylvania (Pittsburgh), Franklin County, Ohio (Columbus), Marion County, Indiana (Indianapolis), and Fayette County, Kentucky (Lexington).

He breaks 70% in Multnomah County, Oregon (Portland), Los Angeles County, California (Los Angeles), Denver County, Colorado (Denver), Wyandotte County, Kansas (Kansas City-KS), Jackson County, Missouri (Kansas City), Travis County, Texas (Austin), El Paso County, Texas (El Paso), Hennepin County, Minnesota (Minneapolis), Ramsey County, Minnesota (St. Paul), Milwaukee County, Wisconsin (Milwaukee), Cook County, Illinois (Chicago), Cuyahoga County, Ohio (Cleveland), Lucas County, Ohio (Toledo), Jefferson County, Kentucky (Louisville), Shelby County, Tennessee (Memphis), Hinds County, Mississippi (Jackson), Broward County, Florida (Ft. Lauderdale), Durham County, North Carolina (Durham), Montgomery County, Maryland (D.C. suburbs), Albany County, New York (Albany), Essex County, New Jersey (Newark), Hudson County, New Jersey (Jersey City), Hartford County, Connecticut (Hartford), Arlington, Virginia, Alexandria, Virginia, and Honolulu County, Hawaii (Honolulu).

The Ferguson share exceeds 80% in Webb County, Texas (Laredo), Orleans Parish, Louisiana (New Orleans), San Francisco County, California (San Francisco), Wayne County, Michigan (Detroit), Baltimore City, Maryland (Baltimore), Prince George's County, Maryland (D.C. suburbs), New York City, Providence County, Rhode Island (Providence), and Suffolk County, Massachusetts (Boston). And he reaches 90% in the District of Columbia. Ferguson also wins numerous normally Republican urban/metropolitan counties, such as Maricopa County, Arizona (Phoenix), Kern County, California (Bakersfield), El Paso County, Colorado (Colorado Springs), Oklahoma County, Oklahoma (Oklahoma City), Washington County, Arkansas (Fayetteville), and Hamilton County, Ohio (Cincinnati). Other swing metropolitan counties, such as San Diego County, California (San Diego), Fresno County, California (Fresno), Bernalillo County, New Mexico (Albuquerque), Douglas County, Nebraska (Omaha), Kent County, Michigan (Grand Rapids), Knox County, Tennessee (Knoxville), Hamilton County, Tennessee (Chattanooga), Jefferson County, Alabama (Birmingham), Pinellas County, Florida (St. Petersburg), Hillsborough County, Florida (Tampa), and Washoe County, Nevada (Reno), vote for Ferguson as well.

Ferguson wins most suburban regions outside of the South, with only Johnson County, Kansas (Overland Park), the "Donut Counties" around Indianapolis, and some of the suburban counties near Cincinnati remaining Republican. Noted Republican suburban bastions such as Orange County, California, Douglas County, Colorado, Waukesha County, Wisconsin, Livingston County, Michigan, Los Alamos County, New Mexico, and Litchfield County, Connecticut, vote Democratic. Within the South, he wins Loudoun, Prince William, Henrico, and Virginia Beach Counties, Virginia; Wake County, North Carolina (Raleigh); Anne Arundel County, Maryland (Annapolis); Wilson and Rutherford Counties, Tennessee; Boone, Kenton, and Campbell Counties, Kentucky; Jefferson and Tangipahoa Parishes, Louisiana; Denton, Collin, Montgomery, Williamson, Bell, and Fort Bend Counties, Texas; Osceola and Monroe Counties, Florida; and Cleveland County, Oklahoma.

The suburbs of Jackson (Rankin and Madison Counties), Birmingham (Shelby County), Atlanta (Cobb, Gwinnett, Henry, as mentioned above), Charleston and Columbia (Berkeley, Horry, Lexington, Aiken Counties), and Charlotte (Union, Cabarrus Counties) remain loyally Republican, as does Williamson County, Tennessee. Several urban counties such as Greenville County, South Carolina (Greenville), Duval County, Florida (Jacksonville), and Escambia County, Florida (Pensacola), also stick with the Republicans, as do the counties of the Treasure and Gulf Coasts.

Close States:
Margin of victory less than <5%:
Mississippi-1.00%
Idaho-1.84%
Florida-2.30%
Margin of victory >5%, but <10%:
Nebraska-5.22%
Virginia-7.36%
Georgia-8.25%
Kansas-9.03%
Utah-9.73%

[538Electoral]

2012 if Romney got exactly 300 electoral votes.

300-238

[538Electoral]

2008 if McCain got exactly 300 electoral votes.

300-238

[538Electoral]

2000 if Bush got exactly 300 electoral votes.

300-238

[Sir Mohamed]

2008, John Kerry vs. John McCain (no recession)

John Kerry runs again in 2008 while there is no recession. Eveything else remains unchanged.

✓ Senator John McCain (R-AZ)/Senator John Lieberman (R-CT): 273 EVs.; 49.4%
Senator John Kerry (D-MA)/Governor Bill Richardson (D-NM): 265 EVs.; 48.6%

[Sir Mohamed]

2012, Obama defeated

Operation Neptune Spear ended in a catastrophe and Obama never recovered from this

✓ Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Representative Paul Ryan (R-WI): 279 EVs.; 48.9%
President Barack Obama (D-IL)/Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE): 259 EVs.; 49.2%


2016, Romney reelected prez

✓ President Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Vice President Paul Ryan (R-WI): 309 EVs.; 50.5%
Former SoS Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA): 229 EVs.; 48.0%


2020, a new direction

✓ Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN)/Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA): 344 EVs.; 52.4%
Vice President Paul Ryan (R-WI)/Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX): 194 EVs.; 46.0%