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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« on: February 26, 2019, 03:01:06 PM »

An independent for president - Designated Survivor Edition



✓ President Thomas Kirkman: 298 EV.
Democratic nominee: 161 EV.
Republican nominee: 79 EV.
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2019, 02:08:23 PM »

An independent for president - Designated Survivor Edition



✓ President Thomas Kirkman: 298 EV.
Democratic nominee: 161 EV.
Republican nominee: 79 EV.


This is how a Independent third party can win. So, don't let anyone tell you that an Independent can't win the EC.

An independent can't win the EC.

In this case, he can. He's an incumbent president who successfully managed the greatest crisis in history. I'm referring to the TV series of course.
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #2 on: June 08, 2019, 03:59:36 AM »

Tom Corbett wins reelection in 2014 and becomes the 2016 Republican nominee:



✓ Governor Thomas W. Corbett (R-PA)/Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC): 300 EV. (49.04%)
Former Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Timothy M. Kaine (D-VA): 238 EV. (48.85%)
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #3 on: June 24, 2019, 01:58:36 PM »

Hilldog elected in 2008 and beyond:



✓ Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY)/Governor William Richardson (D-NM): 353 EV. (52.74%)
Senator John S. McCain (R-AZ)/Governor Sarah Palin (R-AK): 185 EV. (45.83%)


2012



✓ President Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY)/Vice President William Richardson (D-NM): 285 EV. (50.16%)
Former Governor Willard Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Representative Paul D. Ryan (R-WI): 253 EV. (48.45%)


2016:



✓ Governor Barack Obama (D-IL)/Senator Timothy M. Kaine (D-VA): 318 EV. (51.17%)
Businessman Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Governor Michael R. Pence (R-IN): 220 EV. (44.87%)
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #4 on: June 30, 2019, 01:24:15 PM »

Nixon versus Kennedy reloaded with opposite parties

Note: I picked Ned Lamont as Democratic running mate because he is related to the Lodge family




✓ Former Governor Jay Nixon (D-MO)/Governor Ned Lamont (D-CT): 351 EV. (52.36%)
Senator John Kennedy (R-LA)/Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI): 187 EV. (46.25%)
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #5 on: July 15, 2019, 01:33:02 PM »



52/48 Wave Senate map D+5, AZ, CO, KS, ME & NC

Georgia flips before Kansas in 2020.
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2019, 02:37:08 PM »

JOE BIDEN as Ronald Reagan, a DEMOCRATIC realignment

2020 election



✓ Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden (D-DE)/Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI): 375 EV. (51.19%)
President Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN): 163 EV. (42.06%)
Former Governor John R. Kasich (I-OH)/Former Senator Jeff Flake (I-AZ): 0 EV. (5.08%)


2024 election



✓ President Joseph R. Biden (D-DE)/Vice President Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI): 428 EV. (54.49%)
Former Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN)/Representative Elise Stefanik (R-NY): 110 EV. (44.21%)


2028 election



✓ Vice President Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)/Representative Colin Allred (D-TX): 364 EV. (52.03%)
Governor Greg Gianforte (R-MT)/Senator Ronald DeSantis (R-FL): 174 EV. (45.95%)
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2019, 01:29:09 PM »

Lawton Chiles the Democratic nominee in 1988



✓ Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL)/Governor Mario Cuomo (D-NY): 336 EV. (50.24%)
Vice President George H. W. Bush (R-TX)/Senator J. Danforth Quayle (R-IN): 202 EV. (48.04%)
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2019, 02:21:06 PM »

Lawton Chiles the Democratic nominee in 1988



✓ Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL)/Governor Mario Cuomo (D-NY): 336 EV. (50.24%)
Vice President George H. W. Bush (R-TX)/Senator J. Danforth Quayle (R-IN): 202 EV. (48.04%)

Mario Cuomo would never accept a Veep nomination. A better choice to balance the ticket would be prominent figure from the Midwest like Tom Harkin.

Most likely, these two would have been a dream ticket though. Another option would have been Al Gore, if Chiles wanted to boost his standing in the South.
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2019, 04:45:00 PM »

1976: No Watergate, no 22nd Amendment



✓ President Richard M. Nixon (R-CA)/Secretary of the Treasury John Conally (R-TX): 421 EV. (54.22%)
Senator Edward M. Kennedy (D-MA)/Former Governor James E. Carter (D-GA): 117 EV. (44.59%)
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2019, 04:55:02 AM »

^^ The fact that both scenarios add up to all much the same numbers just shows how close this election was in every regard.
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #11 on: November 09, 2019, 12:26:34 PM »

1976, no watergate



✓ Vice President Gerald R. Ford (R-MI)/Governor Ronald W. Reagan (R-CA): 277 EV, 49.5%
Governor James E. Carter (D-GA)/Senator Walter F. Mondale (D-MN): 261 EV, 49%

I think Gerald Ford has zero interest to run for president in 1976 if Nixon served out his term. Or is he nominated a compromise candidate in a deadlocked Reagan-Rockefeller or Connally-Reagan primary?
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #12 on: November 11, 2019, 02:50:12 PM »

(2020) Presidential Election in Designated Survior

The third season ends with this map, that has independent president Tom Kirkman reelected to a full term in office. The popular vote are my estimates.



✓ President Thomas Kirkman (I-PA)/National Security Advisor Aaron Shore (I-TX): 318 EV. (44.54%)
Former President Cornelius Moss (R-TX)/Unknown running mate (R-??): 148 EV. (35.25%)
Businessman William Porter (D-NY)/Unknown running mate (D-??): 72 EV. (20.03%)


I know, the map is a little weird, but the series itsself is great.
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #13 on: November 17, 2019, 03:22:37 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2019, 03:26:59 PM by President Johnson »

2016 election: House of Cards ticket vs. real ticket

Jack Conway vs. Hillary Clinton: I think Conway is the kind of Republican would beat Hillary very easily.



✓ Governor Jack Conway (R-NY)/General Ted Brockhart (R-??): 309 EV. (49.71%)
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Timothy M. Kaine (D-VA): 229 EV. (48.35%)


Frank Underwood vs. Donald Trump: There is no way Frank Underwood loses an election.



✓ President Francis J. Underwood (D-SC)/First Lady Claire Underwood (D-TX): 314 EV. (51.11%)
Entertainer Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Governor Michael R. Pence (R-IN): 224 EV. (45.89%)
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #14 on: December 10, 2019, 03:47:04 PM »
« Edited: December 10, 2019, 04:31:52 PM by President Johnson »

Just a sidenote: Before the adoption of the 25th Amendment in 1967, it was actually not possible to appoint vice presidents during a presidential term. The office could only be filled after the next presidential election and remained vacant if a vice president died, resigned or assumed the presidency. In case something happened to the president, the speaker would have assumed the role of acting president. This actually never happened though.

Also, the popular vote wouldn't be as close in the 1988 map above.
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #15 on: December 29, 2019, 05:52:36 AM »

1988: Lawton Chiles the Democratic nominee

I think Lawton Chiles would have been one of the strongest 1988 Democratic candidates. He would have cut into Bush's Southern support and run a competent campaign. With Al Gore as vice presidential candidate for the "youth factor", this would have been a winning ticket.



✓ Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL)/Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN): 307 EV. (50.37%)
Vice President George H.W. Bush (R-TX)/Senator J. Danforth Quayle (R-IN): 231 EV. (47.64%)
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #16 on: December 30, 2019, 11:19:08 AM »

1988: Lawton Chiles the Democratic nominee

I think Lawton Chiles would have been one of the strongest 1988 Democratic candidates. He would have cut into Bush's Southern support and run a competent campaign. With Al Gore as vice presidential candidate for the "youth factor", this would have been a winning ticket.



✓ Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL)/Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN): 307 EV. (50.37%)
Vice President George H.W. Bush (R-TX)/Senator J. Danforth Quayle (R-IN): 231 EV. (47.64%)

Who would you say could have beaten Bush in eighty eight

Southerners would have been the strongest nominees. Democrats needed to win a few states down South since Republicans were more competitive the North West and West Coast as they are now. Lloyd Bentsen or Fritz Hollings would have done well, too, maybe Al Gore, Bill Clinton, Chuck Robb or Dick Gephardt.

The only non-Southern candidate with a shot in 1988 would have been Mario Cuomo due to a strong personality and charisma. He would also have avoided Dukakis' blunders. A Cuomo/Bentsen or Cuomo/Clinton ticket would have been decent.
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #17 on: December 31, 2019, 12:13:00 PM »

1988: Lawton Chiles the Democratic nominee

I think Lawton Chiles would have been one of the strongest 1988 Democratic candidates. He would have cut into Bush's Southern support and run a competent campaign. With Al Gore as vice presidential candidate for the "youth factor", this would have been a winning ticket.



✓ Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL)/Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN): 307 EV. (50.37%)
Vice President George H.W. Bush (R-TX)/Senator J. Danforth Quayle (R-IN): 231 EV. (47.64%)


1992: Chiles landslide



✓ President Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL)/Vice President Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN): 439 EV. (54.06%)
Senator Trent Lott (R-MS)/Former HUD Secretary Jack French Kemp (R-NY): 99 EV. (43.93%)



1996: Gore wins



✓ Vice President Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Senator John F. Kerry (D-MA): 297 EV. (50.11%)
Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Governor John Ellis Bush (R-FL): 241 EV. (48.05%)



2000: Republican comeback



✓ Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN)/Governor Thomas Ridge (R-PA): 320 EV. (51.12%)
President Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN)/Vice President John F. Kerry (D-MA): 218 EV. (46.75%)



2004: President Lugar re-elected



✓ President Richard Lugar (R-IN)/Vice President Thomas Ridge (R-PA): 295 EV. (49.68%)
Former Vice President John F. Kerry (D-MA)/Representative Richard Gephardt (D-MO): 243 EV. (47.27%)
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #18 on: February 13, 2020, 02:40:33 PM »

2020 election: Feel the Bloom!



✓ Former Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg (D-NY)/Representative Valdez V. Demings (D-FL): 335 EV. (52.27%)
President Donald J. Trump (R-FL)/Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN): 203 EV. (46.06%)
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #19 on: February 25, 2020, 03:52:27 PM »

1996: Lewinsky scandal comes out sooner, no third party candidate and Richard Lugar runs a strong campaign as Republican nominee



✓ Senator Richard G. Lugar (R-IN)/Former Governor Lamar Alexander (R-TN): 274 EV. (49.21%)
President William J. Clinton (D-AR)/Vice President Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN): 264 EV. (48.02%)
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #20 on: March 08, 2020, 02:44:26 PM »

1964: Kennedy lives on, gets in trouble with Bobby Baker scandal, drops LBJ from the ticket and Nelson Rockefeller is the Republican nominee.



✓ Governor Nelson A. Rockefeller (R-NY)/Governor James Rhodes (R-OH): 291 EV. (50.17%)
President John Fitzgerald Kennedy (D-MA)/Governor Terry Sanford (D-NC): 240 EV. (47.25%)
Unpledged electors: 7 EV.


1968: The last election with a Deep South (Democratic) versus the entire rest (Republican). DC goes Republican for the only time in history.



✓ President Nelson A. Rockefeller (R-NY)/Vice President James Rhodes (R-OH): 477 EV. (60.71%)
Senator George Smathers (D-FL)/Governor Edmund G. Brown (D-CA): 61 EV. (38.23%)
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #21 on: March 09, 2020, 03:57:55 PM »


Arkansas was the most loyal Democratic state of the South, voting D every single time from 1876 to 1964. In this case, I think Arkansas pulls one last Democratic vote like this

The reason I gave it to Rockefeller is because his brother Winthrop was a two-term governor of the state in the 1960s. The first Republican since Reconstruction. Also, LBJ underperformed in Arkansas in 1964, even though he won the state over Goldwater.
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #22 on: March 21, 2020, 10:57:47 AM »

1988 United States Presidential election



✓ Senator Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL)/Former Governor Edmund G. Brown (D-CA): 319 EV. (50.24%)
Vice President George H.W. Bush (R-TX)/Senator J. Danforth Quayle (R-IN): 219 EV. (48.55%)


1992 United States presidential election



✓ President Lawton M. Chiles (D-FL)/Vice President Edmund G. Brown (D-CA): 442 EV. (56.44%)
Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Representative Newton Gingrich (R-GA): 96 EV. (42.23%)


1996 United States presidential election



✓ Senator Richard G. Lugar (R-IN)/General Colin Powell (R-VA): 282 EV. (49.58%)
Vice President Edmund G. Brown (D-CA)/Senator Albert Arnold Gore (D-TN): 256 EV. (47.87%)


2000 United States presidential election



✓ President Richard G. Lugar (R-IN)/Vice President Colin Powell (R-VA): 294 EV. (50.81%)
Representative Richard Gephardt (D-MO)/Senator John F. Kerry (D-MA): 244 EV. (47.30%)
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #23 on: March 30, 2020, 03:12:56 PM »

1940, FDR steps down



✓ Businessman Wendell Willkie (R-NY)/Senator Charles McNary (R-OR): 327 EVs.; 51.7%
Vice President John N. Garner (D-TX)/Governor Culbert Olson (D-CA): 204 EVs.; 46.6%


1944, Landslide for Willkie during WWII



✓ President Wendell Willkie (R-NY)/Representative Everett Dirksen* (R-IL): 427 EVs.; 57.8%
Senator Alben Barkley (D-KY)/Former Governor Herbert Lehman (D-NY): 104 EVs.; 40.7%

* replaces deceased Vice President Charles McNary

Wilkie died in 1944…surely people would not have voted for a ticket with a dead man on it

If Willkie and McNary had actually been elected in 1940 and lived to the same dates as they actually did, there would have been an acting president in October 1944, weeks before the election (Willkie died in October, McNary already in February). Whoever Willkie's Secretary of State was would have taken over as acting president. Speaker and senate president pro tem were removed from presidential succession after the Presidential Succession Act of 1886 (these were inserted back after the 1947 version of the said act). This may have turned the election into a mess since ballots were most likely print in most states. Furthermore, World War II was in a very critical phase.

It's actually crazy that just four and a half years after the 1940 presidential election, only one person from the major party tickets was still alive (Henry Wallace; since FDR, Willkie and McNary were all dead by mid 1945).
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


« Reply #24 on: April 05, 2020, 10:37:27 AM »

1976 presidential election

Ronald Reagan takes the nomination from Gerald Ford. Democrats end up with their own brokered convention. In an unprecedented move, party leaders offer their nomination to incumbent Republican Vice President Nelson Rockefeller with the only precondition to switch parties. (side note: This was actually discussed by Hubert Humphrey and others if there is an open convention in 1976, whether Nelson Rockefeller could become their compromise nominee).



✓ Vice President Nelson A. Rockefeller (D-NY)/Governor Reubin Askew (D-FL): 287 EV. (50.66%)
Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Richard Schweiker (R-PA): 251 EV. (47.84%)
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